宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：继上周五宏观氛围走弱，贵金属有色普跌以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in various ETFs, particularly in the metals and mining sectors, indicates a recovery in market sentiment following a period of volatility, driven by technical corrections and strategic reserve initiatives by major economies [1][2][4]. ETF Performance - The following ETFs have shown significant gains: - Cathay Metals ETF: +6.23% YTD +16.57% - Mining ETF: +5.80% YTD +18.51% - Cathay Metals LOF: +5.72% YTD +16.21% - Cathay Gold ETF: +5.03% YTD +12.07% - Gold Stocks ETF: +4.24% YTD +29.39% - Cathay Chemical ETF: +4.03% YTD +8.03% - Building Materials ETF: +4.03% YTD +10.91% [1]. Market Dynamics - The rebound in gold prices, reaching a peak of $4,949.99, and silver prices above $87, reflects a shift in market dynamics, with short positions being closed and new buying interest emerging [2]. - The increase in holdings of the iShares Silver Trust by 1,023.23 tons marks the third-largest single-day increase in its history, indicating strong investor interest [3]. Strategic Reserve Initiatives - The Chinese government is exploring the expansion of its copper strategic reserve, which may support copper prices, similar to the U.S. strategic reserve initiatives [3]. - Trump's plan to initiate a $12 billion mineral reserve aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing against supply disruptions, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing security over efficiency in resource management [4]. Future Outlook - The expectation of a resource bull market remains, supported by historical patterns where extreme volatility in gold prices often precedes significant upward trends [5]. - Long-term factors such as monetary easing, the safe-haven appeal of gold, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to sustain gold's upward trajectory [6]. - Investors are advised to adopt differentiated strategies, balancing short-term opportunities with long-term value, while being cautious of market volatility [7]. Related Investment Opportunities - Key ETFs to consider include: - Largest Oil ETF: 561360 - Unique Coal ETF: 515220 - Cathay Chemical ETF: 516220 - Largest Building Materials ETF: 159745 [9][10].

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 风物长宜放眼量 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2026 年第 5 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 金银比突破 50，贵金属有望带领工业金属 加 速 上 涨 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 （2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry in China [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes a long-term perspective on the market, suggesting that despite short-term volatility in precious metals, the long-term bull market remains intact due to unresolved U.S. debt issues [7][12] - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked material benefiting from the re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with expectations for price increases due to supply tightness [7][13] - The copper sector is viewed positively, with the gold-to-copper ratio reaching historical highs, indicating potential for copper price increases amid supply constraints [7][14] - For precious metals, investors are advised to wait for price stabilization before increasing positions, as significant price fluctuations have been observed recently [7][15] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the dynamics of precious metals, noting significant price drops in gold and silver, with gold prices reaching $4,880 per ounce and silver prices at $85 per ounce during a recent week [7][12] - The zinc market is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by infrastructure projects in developing regions, with a noted decrease in zinc smelting fees indicating supply constraints [7][13] - The copper market is projected to maintain upward momentum due to a high gold-to-copper ratio and ongoing supply challenges from major mining companies [7][14] - The report suggests a cautious approach to precious metals, recommending that investors wait for market stabilization before making new investments [7][15] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with a slight decrease in iron output and weakening demand for rebar [16][21] - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, with total steel inventory at 891 thousand tons, reflecting a 2.56% weekly increase [23] - Steel prices have generally declined, with the overall steel price index down by 0.20%, and specific products like cold-rolled steel experiencing a 0.44% decrease [35][36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [39] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with December 2025 production reaching 1.5858 million units, a 9.02% increase year-on-year [43] - Lithium prices have shown a notable decline, with the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 159,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 5.62% decrease [48][49]

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook on mid-cap blue chips, with a focus on price increases in the chemical and agricultural sectors [6][27] - Liquidity expectations are shifting, leading to increased volatility in non-ferrous metals, while the demand for industrial products driven by AI capital expenditure is expected to support price increases in cyclical goods [6][27] - Agricultural products are anticipated to experience a comprehensive price increase due to upstream price transmission and a tight supply-demand balance in major commodities like sugar, corn, and oilseeds [12][27] Group 2 - The trading sentiment across large, mid, and small-cap stocks has cooled, but medium-term uncertainty remains relatively stable [17][27] - The trend for mid-cap blue chips related to cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals) remains strong, while media and defense industries are showing strengthening trends [20][27] - Short-term uncertainty is rising for non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals, while medium-term uncertainty for basic chemicals is stable and for agriculture is declining [23][27]

以下文章来源于格隆汇交易学苑 ，作者格隆汇小编 格隆汇交易学苑 . 以基本面为基础，专注于趋势交易 最近的市场跟 "坐过山车"似的：黄金冲到 5500 美元 / 盎司历史高位，转头一天跌 9% 创 40 年最大跌幅；美元指 数上周跌至近 4 年新低，又因"沃什提名"反弹。 不少粉丝朋友在问我们：新美联储主席沃什的提名 + 炒得火热的 AI 科技， 到底会让美元变强，还是给黄金挖个抄底 "坑"？ 今天给大家拆解一下背后的影响逻辑和机会判断。 01 先看大环境：全球旧秩序回不去，美国自己一堆麻烦 现在的全球格局很直白：以前一起搭伙做生意，现在各算各的账。特朗普上台后把 "美国优先"和"极限施压"贯彻到 底，对盟友加关税、逼乌克兰让渡矿产权益，甚至想"买"格陵兰岛，欧盟、加拿大直接反制，这就是逆全球化的真实 样子。 02 再聊 AI 科技：或成美元走强"新引擎"，对黄金有两面性 从外国投行数据看， AI 正成为美国经济的核心增量：高盛预测 2030 年 AI 产业将占美 GDP 的 7% ，摩根士丹利 测算 AI 算力基建（数据中心、芯片产业链等）每年拉动私人投资增长 4% ，非农部门生产效率因 AI 应用提升 1 ...

最近的市场跟"坐过山车"似的：黄金冲到5500美元/盎司历史高位，转头一天跌9%创40年最大跌幅；美元指数上周跌至近4年新 低，又因"沃什提名"反弹。 01 背后更关键的是美元信用在松动。当前全球黄金总价值（38.2万亿美元）快赶上美债规模（38.5万亿美元），这是80年代以来 头一回。以前美元是老大，美债是硬通货，现在黄金能跟它平起平坐，说明大家对美元没那么信了——就像以前都认一家银行 的存单，现在大家开始把钱换成黄金藏着，信号再明确不过了。 02 再聊AI科技：或成美元走强"新引擎"，对黄金有两面性 不少粉丝朋友在问我们：新美联储主席沃什的提名+炒得火热的AI科技，到底会让美元变强，还是给黄金挖个抄底"坑"？今天 给大家拆解一下背后的影响逻辑和机会判断。 先看大环境：全球旧秩序回不去，美国自己一堆麻烦 现在的全球格局很直白：以前一起搭伙做生意，现在各算各的账。特朗普上台后把"美国优先"和"极限施压"贯彻到底，对盟友 加关税、逼乌克兰让渡矿产权益，甚至想"买"格陵兰岛，欧盟、加拿大直接反制，这就是逆全球化的真实样子。 杀敌一千自损八百，美国经济也跟着遭殃。最近生产端通胀（PPI）超预期，企业生产的东西还是贵 ...

有色金属再度大爆发！ 新任美联储主席Kevin Warsh在其经济学家时期，主张"降息与缩表并行"。他的上台短期内有望支撑美元走 强，并推动美债收益率曲线陡峭化，对贵金属价格构成一定压力。 广发证券认为，从中长期看，美国债务结构性问题并未化解，Warsh的政策更多可能放缓美元下行速率，而非 根本性扭转其趋势。而其作为特朗普选定的美联储主席上台后，很难推行过于强硬的政策，市场在短期内反应 可能过于剧烈，长期来看冲击是可控的。 2月3日午后，沪铜直线拉升，沪铜2603一度猛拉近3%，铜陵有色、紫金矿业等铜业股也是直线拉升，贵金属 及相应个股陆续走强，并带动大盘冲高。此前两个交易日的阴影似乎正在消逝。 消息面上，有内外两则消息催化：一是中国有色金属工业协会表示，研究将贸易量大、容易变现的铜精矿纳入 储备范围；二是美国预计将启动一项关键矿产储备计划，初期资金为120亿美元。 某券商点评认为，国内此次 补库量级或达到700 万吨 -800万吨，符合逆全球化背景下制造业国家的安全库存水平。 两则消息来袭 据媒体报道，在今日中国有色金属工业协会举行的2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上，中国有色 金属工业协会副秘 ...

Global Economic Trends - The global economy is experiencing two major trends: de-globalization and the AI technology revolution, expected to last at least 5-10 years[34] - The US dollar may have entered a long-term depreciation cycle, with global commodities likely entering a new "super cycle," leading to sustained price increases for gold, copper, and certain minor metals[34] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to enter a long-term slow bull trend, driven by the AI technology revolution and re-inflation, contingent on stable US-China relations[34] - The overall market is expected to show an upward trend in Q1, followed by fluctuations in Q2 and Q3, and a recovery in Q4[3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors related to AI, copper, rare earths, and gold, as well as military trade exports and domestic demand upgrades[3] - Anticipate a shift in market sentiment towards consumption in the second and third quarters, as the market narrative evolves towards "low inflation"[3] Market Dynamics - The current economic transition in China is marked by a shift in the real estate cycle and the transformation of old and new growth drivers[35] - A stable economic cycle in China is expected to lead to reduced volatility in the A-share market, supporting the long-term slow bull trend[35]

2026年A股年度策略报告 2026年2月3日 AI 兴，再通胀，驭慢牛 2026年A股年度策略报告 庞庞庞 庞庞庞 SAC 庞庞庞庞庞S0640515120001 庞庞庞庞庞010-59562478 庞庞庞dongzy@avicsec .com 2 ➢ 全球政经格局来看 ，2025 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 ➢ 从大类资产中长期角度看 ，2025年进一步确认了全球两大趋势 ，即逆全球化与 AI科技革命，未来或将至少持续 5-10年。 美元或已进入长期贬值周期 ，全球商品有望进入新一轮 "超级周期"，黄金、铜以及部分小金属等资源品价格或将持 续上涨。 ➢ 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 股有望步入长 ...