【黄金期货行情表现】 1月8日，沪金主力暂报998.56元/克，跌幅0.67%，今日沪金主力开盘价999.40元/克，截至目前最高 1004.94元/克，最低993.58元/克。 【宏观消息】 首先，美联储降息预期仍存。"宽松预期+弱美元"修复通道持续。其次，避险情绪升温。美国债务膨 胀、去美元化、地缘冲突加剧以及中美贸易摩擦、经济格局重塑等弹性避险需求增强了黄金的战略配置 价值。 同时，央行购金是人民币国际化的必经之路。从长期交易策略来看，伴随着美元信用体系受损、全球货 币体系重构以及全球资产重估，非美资产相对占优，黄金仍将是长期的资产配置品种。 受货币财政双宽的流动性宽松支撑的贵金属节前冲高回落，节后地缘溢价走强或构成新的市场驱动。 【机构观点】 主力合约表现方面，沪金跌0.31%至1002.2，沪银跌2.99%至19020；铂跌2.47%至598.5，钯涨1.71%至 475.95。我国12月末黄金储备规模为7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第14个月增加。美国2025 年12月ISM服务业PMI指数上升1.8点至54.4，为2024年10月以来的最高水平。美国2025年12月ADP就业 人数增4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2]. - Silver: Prices have corrected from high levels [2]. - Copper: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed [2]. - Zinc: Prices are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2]. - Tin: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have fallen after reaching a high [2]. - Aluminum: Prices have slightly declined [2]. - Alumina: Prices are oscillating within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Prices are oscillating to find a direction [2]. - Palladium: Prices are maintaining an oscillating trend [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cycle transformation, with wide - range oscillations [2]. - Stainless steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down the market, and the market is mainly betting on Indonesian policies [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 984.84, down 2.22%; the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 391,541, an increase of 46,319. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18140, down 0.35%; the trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 1,127,485, a decrease of 315,320 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged; the inventory of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, a decrease of 40985 kg [5]. - **News**: China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months. The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and other macro - news have been released [5][7]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,410, down 1.81%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 758,590, an increase of 114,266. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 12,866, down 2.93% [8]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 96,474 tons, an increase of 3,203 tons; the LME spot premium declined [8]. - **News**: China's copper ore imports in November 2025 increased, and there were developments in copper mines such as labor - contract negotiations in Chile and the progress of domestic copper mines [8][10]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24330, up 0.14%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 187735, an increase of 10560. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3245.5, up 1.17% [11]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 40919 tons, an increase of 74 tons; the LME Zinc inventory was 105500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [11]. - **News**: China's December foreign exchange reserves increased, and there were international geopolitical news such as the US' "commission - selling" of Venezuelan oil [12]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17830, up 1.77%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 83341, an increase of 26456. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 2071, up 2.04% [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 13439 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the LME Lead inventory was 230425 tons, a decrease of 2925 tons [14]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and other macro - news have been released [15]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 359,050, up 2.93%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 459,909, an increase of 134,924. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,650, up 0.34% [17]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,780 tons, a decrease of 306 tons; the LME Tin inventory was 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons [17]. - **News**: The memory market has entered a "super - bull market", and there were policies to accelerate the upgrade of intelligent terminals [18]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24360, up 25; the trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 639637, an increase of 87968. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2938, up 120; the trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 1854026, an increase of 1136372. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23035, up 40; the trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19559, an increase of 1289 [20]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 8.50 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 50.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons [20]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and the ISM service industry PMI data have been released [21]. 3.7 Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 598.50, down 2.97%; the trading volume of Guangzhou Platinum was 82,828 kg, an increase of 17,632 kg. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 475.95, up 0.86%; the trading volume of Guangzhou Palladium was 44,238 kg, an increase of 8,209 kg [23]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum was 645,366 ounces, unchanged; the inventory of NYMEX Palladium was 211,306 ounces, unchanged [23]. - **News**: There were international news such as Zelensky's statement on the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US' actions regarding Venezuelan oil [26]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 147,720, up 7,920; the trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,132,256, an increase of 393,922. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,885, up 490; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 547,902, an increase of 243,022 [27]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government has taken measures such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses and revising the benchmark price formula for nickel ore [27][28].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 8 日 黄金：避险情绪回升 白银：高位回调 产 业 服 务 研 究 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 984.84 | -2.22% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 黄金T+D | 982.20 | -2.26% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4352.30 | 0.05% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 18140 | -0.35% | #N/A | #N/A | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 18119 | -3.67% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex白银2602 | 76.015 | 6.11% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | #N/A | ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices are expected to experience significant increases in 2026 after a correction at the end of 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic factors such as interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar [1][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices fell significantly at the end of 2025, dropping below $4,300 per ounce, but rebounded to nearly $4,500 in early January 2026, with a slight retreat to around $4,465 [2]. - Silver prices followed a similar trend, experiencing a drop before rising again, reaching $82.73 per ounce, close to last year's peak of $83.62, before settling around $79.6 [2]. - Domestic gold prices briefly fell below ¥1,000 per gram but quickly recovered, with prices reaching ¥1,402 per gram for certain gold jewelry [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - High demand for small-weight zodiac gold bars was observed, leading to stock shortages in some stores, particularly at the Beijing Caibai store, where customers were actively purchasing gold bars [4][8]. - The issuance of gold consumption vouchers in Beijing contributed to increased foot traffic and sales in some stores, while other locations experienced lower customer turnout due to rising gold prices [8][10]. Group 3: Expert Insights - Experts attribute the short-term rise in gold prices to heightened risk aversion following U.S. actions in Venezuela, alongside expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar [10][11]. - Long-term support for gold prices is expected to remain strong due to ongoing central bank purchases and the "de-dollarization" trend, which is seen as a slow but steady process that will bolster gold's value over time [10][11]. - Analysts recommend caution in the short term, advising against chasing prices, while suggesting that long-term investors consider buying on dips due to the underlying supportive factors for gold and silver [10][11].

1月7日，在新的一年拉开序幕之际，全球市场依然被浓厚的不确定性迷雾所笼罩。ZFX山海证券 观察 到，被市场视为"避险天堂"的黄金与白银表现尤为亮眼，其总市值一度重返全球资产排行榜的前两名， 力压一众科技巨头。在当前避险情绪升温的环境下，实物资产的价值存储功能再次得到了市场的广泛公 认，而加密资产如比特币目前则维持在第八位。 根据 CompaniesMarketCap 最新的统计数据，黄金以 31.1 万亿美元的庞大市值稳坐全球资产头把交椅。 ZFX山海证券 表示，白银与半导体巨头英伟达（Nvidia）之间的次席争夺战已进入白热化阶段。尽管英 伟达受益于人工智能算力需求的激增而势头强劲，但白银在近期多次反超英伟达，展现出贵金属在动荡 局势中的强劲爆发力。投资者在应对全球性贸易争端与潜在地缘冲突时，倾向于将资金撤出高风险板 块，转而配置具有长久历史背书的贵金属。 宏观层面的政策转向也是驱动这一现象的关键。美联储新管理团队领导下的降息预期，是促使金银价格 屡创新高的核心动能。目前，金价与银价已分别触及 4500 美元和 80 美元附近的历史高点。尽管这股资 金流尚未完全涌入加密货币市场，但ZFX山海证券 认为，随着 ...

数据显示，1月7日上海黄金现货价格报价1005.00元/克，相较于期货主力价格（998.90元/克）升水6.01 元/克。 尽管欧洲多国发布联合声明支持丹麦，警告现有边界不容协商，但特朗普不排除动武夺取格陵兰，白宫 明确表示出兵占领是选项之一。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 1月7日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 998.90 | -0.17% | 200100 | 126147 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 【机构观点】 银河期货：地缘主导 贵金属短期内或偏强震荡 此前，由于COMEX市场提高贵金属的保证金、叠加年末获利了结影响，金银在高位进入宽幅震荡。但 节后，一方面，金银前期的宏观和基本面的利多因素都尚存，另外，近日拉美、格陵兰岛等相关的地缘 事件，不仅点燃了市场的避险情绪，更加剧了当前逆全球化趋势下市场对于有限的矿产资源的拥趸，且 板块间的轮动也在品种间互相形成资金和情绪的正向反馈，推动金银和其他有色贵金属共同上涨。当前 市场情绪较为亢奋，预计金银仍有望 ...

1月7日，昨日黄金走了一个偏高震荡行情，亚盘开盘小幅上扬，午盘后反弹至4470一线进场空单，美盘 前回落至4440上方，空单小赚20余美金出场。美盘再度反弹，晚间最高是到了4497美元，最终则是收盘 于4493美元，日线收于一根小阳线。 黄金：4460-4465一线做多，止损4450，目标看4500-4520-4550一线。跌破4450则反弹出多做空，看4400 破位。另外，直接突破4500可以回调最多，依次上看。 今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2026年1月7日周三 21：15美国12月ADP就业人数 23：00美国12月ISM非制造业PMI 23：00美国11月JOLTs职位空缺 23：00美国12月全球供应链压力指数 从技术上来看，在避险情绪未消的情况下今日黄金暂时还是保留一定的看强预期，可以看强但莫要盲从 追高，目前出现的调整动作或许预示多头动能的衰竭，避险情绪的渐减，日内下方可着重关注10日线 4430-20一带的争夺，而如果晚间数据能够有利空加持，那么黄金或可能跌回至5日线4410-00一带内。 日内上方则继续关注4500整数关口，在此之前早间下跌破位口4480也值得加以关注。 总之，对于已持有的 ...

1月7日，周三，亚市早盘，现货黄金先小涨后下跌，一度触及4500美元关口，目前交投于4470附近，下 跌约0.5%。周二，现货黄金价格延续了前一交易日的涨势，进一步上涨约1%，收盘于4494美元每盎 司。黄金价格的这一波上涨，主要源于投资者对全球不确定性的担忧大幅增加，特别是周末美国对委内 瑞拉的军事行动引发了广泛的避险情绪，推动资金大量流入贵金属市场，白银今天也触及到了82.74美 元高位。 基本消息面： 美国与委内瑞拉的地缘冲突仍在升级，遭美方抓捕的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗首次出庭并坚决否认所有指 控，其代理政府依托160吨黄金储备维持运转，成为与美方博弈的重要筹码，而联合国安理会紧急会议 上多国谴责美方单边行动，凸显国际局势紧张；媒体报道称，川普正讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包 括"动用军事手段推进目标"，他认为格陵兰岛对美国军事安全至关重要，并批评丹麦在保护该岛方面做 得不足，这进一步加剧地缘政治紧张情绪。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为18.3%，维持利率不变的概率为81.7%。到3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为40.7%，维持利率不变的概率为52.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为6 ...

【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普周二在华盛顿共和党议员集会上警告，若共和党未能赢得2026年中期选举，他恐遭民主 党弹劾。他强调："你们必须赢下中期选举，否则他们会找理由弹劾我。"当前共和党仅以5票优势控制 众议院，特朗普敦促盟友搁置分歧，聚焦生活成本等议题向选民推销政策。 谈及民生，特朗普对通胀问题着墨甚少，仅称问题继承自民主党，并建议共和党借美股强劲表现竞选。 他回避深入讨论1月6日国会骚乱五周年争议，而民主党人正指责共和党"粉饰"历史。 此次集会于约翰.F.肯尼迪表演艺术中心举行。特朗普去年清除该中心民主党董事后，剩余理事于12月投 票将其更名为"特朗普-肯尼迪中心"。他在84分钟即兴演讲中提及妻子建议少公开跳舞，重复不实言论 (如称华盛顿7个月无凶杀案，实际2025年发生127起)，并自称"没太多时间打高尔夫"(上周日刚打过)。 特朗普预测共和党将获"史诗级中期选举胜利"，但批评部分不服从成员。他要求党内更积极应对民主党 医保政策(延长奥巴马医改补贴)，并建议保守派在医疗计划中灵活对待禁止taxpayer资助堕胎的海德修 正案。 摘要今日周三(1月7日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于1002元/克附近，截至发 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复及地缘冲突利好金价 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强 ...