周五亚洲交易时段，黄金保持坚挺，现交投于3990至4000美元区间。随着美国政府停摆进入第六周，市 场对经济放缓的忧虑升温。Challenger数据显示，10月裁员人数超过15万人，创二十年来新高，强化了 市场对美联储12月降息的押注。分析人士指出，降息预期降低了黄金的持有成本，吸引力因此增强。 Zaner Metals策略师Peter Grant表示："财政和政治不确定性升温，使避险买盘重新成为市场主导力 量。"交易员将密切关注北京时间今晚公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数，以判断美国消费端动能是否 进一步减弱。 当前市场依旧由避险与流动性主导，若密歇根大学消费者信心数据不及预期，市场对美联储12月降息的 预期或将进一步增强，从而支撑黄金维持高位震荡。总体来看，短线仍可保持逢低布局思路，但需关注 美联储官员讲话可能引发的短期波动。 整体而言，避险情绪支撑黄金在高位运行，短线支撑关注3990美元，关键压力位仍在4000美元关口。美 元在通胀风险与降息预期的拉扯中反弹受限，原油则在供需与地缘因素交织下震荡整理。未来，市场焦 点将转向密歇根大学消费者信心数据及美联储官员威廉姆斯、杰斐逊与米兰的讲话，以寻找政策基调的 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a temporary rise due to increased risk aversion but fell back as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened rate cut expectations, closing at $3984.80 per ounce, a decrease of 0.20% [1] - In October, U.S. companies announced layoffs totaling 153074, a year-on-year increase of 175.3%, marking a seven-month high, with a month-on-month increase of 183% [1] Group 2 - Current precious metal prices lack significant drivers, with expectations of maintaining a volatile pattern in the short term, particularly around the December trading window and the Federal Reserve's meeting [2] - Long-term factors such as excessive debt and de-globalization are seen as core drivers of declining U.S. dollar credit, with gold being viewed as a preferred asset for hedging against dollar credit risk, supported by ongoing global central bank gold purchases [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its sixth week, becoming the longest in U.S. history, raising concerns about its potential impact on Q4 economic growth [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown could lead to a GDP decline of 1% to 2%, exacerbating worries about short-term economic slowdown [1] - Despite the shutdown, U.S. economic data remains robust, with October ADP employment increasing by 42,000, surpassing the expected 25,000, and ISM services PMI rising to 52.4, the highest in eight months [1] Group 2 - Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued to rebound, breaking the $4,000 mark, driven by safe-haven inflows due to the U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, and escalating Ukraine situation [1] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance remains a significant resistance for gold bulls, as market expectations for another rate cut in December diminish, potentially limiting gold's upside [1] - Technical analysis indicates short-term resistance for gold at $4,025 to $4,030, with potential extension targets of $4,075 to $4,100, while support is around $3,970, with a drop below that possibly leading to a retreat to the $3,910 to $3,900 range [1] Group 3 - In the forex market, investors are focused on the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision, with expectations that the BoE will maintain the policy rate at 4% during the November meeting [2] - The British pound stabilized around 1.3050 after a brief rebound, while the euro/dollar pair ended a five-day decline, consolidating above 1.1500 [2] - Overall risk sentiment is showing a mild recovery, providing some support for non-U.S. currencies, while the market awaits new guidance amid the interplay of risk aversion and hawkish policy expectations [2]

来源：市场资讯 11月6日，昨日黄金呈现震荡整理走势。亚盘开盘后金价展开反弹，最高触及3980美元上方后承压回 落，但下行幅度有限，在3950美元上方获得支撑后再度收复失地。随后价格基本维持在3980美元附近窄 幅波动，最终收于3978美元，日线录得一根小阳线。 周四（11月6日）美国联邦政府停摆已进入第36天，刷新了自1879年以来的最长停摆纪录。持续的僵局 可能导致全美航空系统自本周五起削减10%的计划航班，进一步加剧经济混乱，推升市场避险情绪。此 外，美国最高法院大法官对特朗普大规模征收关税的合法性提出质疑。若相关关税政策被推翻，美国财 政赤字可能急剧扩大，进而增强黄金的避险吸引力。 然而，另一方面，美国ADP就业数据强于市场预期，ISM非制造业PMI也表现强劲，这些因素导致市场 对美联储12月降息的预期进一步降温。美元指数刷新近五个月高点，限制了黄金的上涨动能。整体来 看，黄金的避险属性与强势美元及降息预期降温形成多空拉锯，市场情绪趋于谨慎。建议各位投资者在 操作上保持稳健，合理控制仓位。 从技术上来看，昨日黄金主体结构是走震荡路线的，短线结构重心略被上抬，导致隔夜走势区间进一步 缩窄，今日行情异动的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economic data is relatively strong, with the ADP employment data exceeding expectations, but there are still uncertainties in the employment market and inflation pressure remains. The US government shutdown has reached a record - long 36 days, which has an impact on the stock market and other fields. The A - share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high, with short - term expected to be weak in shock and long - term still having value for bottom - fishing layout. The bond market may maintain a relatively strong shock pattern. Different commodity prices show different trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - factors [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 10 - month ISM services PMI reached a new eight - month high, and the ADP employment data exceeded expectations, but some service industries continued to lay off workers. The US government shutdown lasted for 36 days, the longest on record. The strong economic and earnings data boosted market risk appetite, the US stock market rebounded, the US dollar index fluctuated above 100, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.16%, the gold and copper prices closed up, and the oil price closed down by more than 1% to a two - week low [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market opened low and closed high, with most major indexes rising. The trading volume shrank to 1.89 trillion. The micro - cap and ChiNext sectors were dominant, while the Shanghai 50 and Beixin 50 were weak. In the short term, it is expected to be weak in shock, and in the long term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market may benefit from the decline in risk appetite and focus on fundamentals again, and may maintain a relatively strong shock pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The international precious metal futures prices rebounded on Wednesday. The COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3990.40 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures rose 1.20% to $47.86 per ounce. Although the US ADP employment data exceeded expectations, the investment risk - aversion sentiment still drove the prices of gold and silver up. The short - term rebound space of gold and silver prices is expected to be limited, and they are still in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, and LME copper rebounded at night. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper improved, and downstream enterprises actively replenished stocks at low prices. The overall employment market in the US is still weak, and there are still uncertainties in the economy. Codelco said that its production in 2025 - 2026 will be slightly higher than that in 2024. It is expected that the copper price will stabilize and rebound after stopping falling [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.4%, and LME aluminum closed down 0.7%. The ADP employment data and ISM non - manufacturing PMI data in the US were strong, which cooled the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December. The overseas supply was disturbed, and the domestic supply of aluminum ingots increased slightly. The consumption season is shifting to the off - season, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The aluminum price is expected to adjust at a high level [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed down 0.11%. The supply of imported bauxite is expected to increase, and the cost support for alumina is weakening. The supply - demand situation remains in an oversupply pattern, and alumina continues to be weak [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc first declined and then rebounded during the day and fluctuated horizontally at night. The US ADP employment data was higher than expected, but far lower than the historical average. The zinc ingot export window is open, and the inventory is expected to decline. The short - term macro situation is stable, and the zinc price is slightly adjusted, but there is support below the price [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night. The environmental protection control still causes a regional supply shortage, and the demand of battery enterprises is expected to pick up, but the supply shortage is expected to improve as more refineries resume production. The short - term fundamentals are in a stalemate, and the lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rebounded during the day and fluctuated horizontally at night. The fundamentals have few new contradictions, and the raw material improvement is limited. The decline in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the US government shutdown have put pressure on the tin price in the short term, but it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall before the low inventory at home and abroad significantly rebounds [13][14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply side decreased marginally, and the demand side had mixed performance. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly last week. The industrial silicon spot price stabilized and rebounded, and the futures price is expected to maintain a shock in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, the price of carbonate lithium fluctuated, and the spot price fell. The production capacity of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. increased. The trading enthusiasm of the spot market was average, and both long and short sides have bargaining chips. The lithium price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. The US ADP employment data and service industry PMI data were released, and the legal debate on Trump's "reciprocal tariff" was held. The US dollar put pressure on the nickel price, but the current nickel price is at the bottom of the range, and the cost support is still there. The nickel price is expected to have limited decline space, and a callback of the US dollar index may boost the nickel price [18][19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - On Wednesday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated strongly, and the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. Some soda ash and glass production enterprises have maintenance plans. The demand for soda ash may decline due to the concentrated maintenance of glass factories. It is expected that the prices of soda ash and glass will stop falling and stabilize, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the convergence of the cross - variety price difference [20][21]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On Wednesday, steel futures fluctuated weakly. The demand for steel is weak, the supply is high, and the inventory pressure remains. The steel price is expected to be weak [22][23]. - Iron Ore: On Wednesday, iron ore futures fell. Due to the weak demand for steel and the increase in steel mill maintenance, the iron ore demand is weak, and the port inventory increased significantly. The iron ore price is expected to be weak [24]. 3.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. The 2025/26 annual soybean production in Argentina is expected to be 4,740 tons. The Chinese government will continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff on US soybeans and retain the 10% additional tariff. The import cost supports the prices of bean and rapeseed meal, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [25][26]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, palm oil futures fell. The MPOA estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia in October increased by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons. The supply of palm oil is expected to be loose, and the market is waiting for the MPOB report. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over high valuations in technology stocks, despite strong corporate earnings and optimistic economic data being largely priced in [1] Market Performance - US stock index futures declined collectively, with S&P 500 futures down 0.15%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.26%, and Dow Jones futures down 0.11% [2][4] - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.3%, German DAX down 0.2%, UK FTSE 100 down 0.1%, and French CAC 40 down 0.4% [4] - Asian stock markets showed mixed results, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index rising 1.19% [2][3] Economic Indicators - The market has absorbed stronger-than-expected US ISM services index and ADP employment data, contributing to the decline in US stock index futures [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points to 4.14% [4] Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices rose by 0.73%, surpassing $4000 per ounce, closing at $4008.12 [3][4] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.62%, reaching $59.97 per barrel [4] Investor Sentiment - Investors are showing caution towards artificial intelligence semiconductor stocks, with some still looking to buy despite the prevailing concerns [1] - Market focus is on the Supreme Court's stance regarding Trump's tariffs, which is seen as a significant test of presidential power [1]

| 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年11月6日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 904. 60 | 元/克 | | 菜自黄金 | 901. 50 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 896. 90 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 906. 20 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 915. 10 | 元/克 | 说完国内黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 受美国政府继续停摆影响，市场避险情绪升温，昨日现货黄金盘中大幅反弹，最高涨至3990.10美元/盎司。不过后续又有回 落，收报3978.75美元/盎司，涨幅1.21%。今日金价继续上涨，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3986.18美元/盎司，涨幅0.19%。 11月6日金价速报，国内品牌金店的首饰金价重新上涨，今日涨幅略低于昨日跌幅，整体价格维持在周一的水平。今日周六 福的首饰金价上涨14元/克，报1261元/克，为新的最高价金店；上海中国黄金不涨不跌，报价1180元/克，还是最低价金店。 今日金价高低价差再次扩大，报81元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices rising significantly and aiming to challenge the 4000 mark, following a recent adjustment phase [1][6][11]. Market Performance - Gold prices surged by 60 USD, reaching around 3985 before a profit-taking phase for short positions occurred [1]. - A deep V reversal was noted in today's trading, indicating a strong recovery after a decline [5]. - The market is currently facing resistance at the 4000 level, with potential upward movement towards 4030 [7][8]. Economic Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government shutdown have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [12]. - Positive economic indicators, including unexpected job growth and better-than-expected PMI data, have also influenced gold prices [12]. - Upcoming unemployment data is expected to provide further insights into the labor market and may impact Federal Reserve policy expectations [13]. Investment Strategy - The current market is in a high-level adjustment phase, with key levels to watch for potential short positions at 4000 and 4030, while long positions may be considered at 3963 and 3928 [11]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of entry and exit points for investment success, highlighting the need for experience and risk management [13]. Geopolitical Context - The global environment is marked by increasing geopolitical tensions, which are contributing to the rise in gold and U.S. Treasury prices [16].

周四（11月6日）欧盘市中，尽管美元走强，美国国债收益率上升，但由于交易员买入黄金，金价反弹 至4000美元水平。随着贵金属需求增加，白银上涨2%。铂金在贵金属需求上升的背景下上涨，铂金试 图回到1540美元上方。 在ISM服务业数据公布之前，ADP发布的数据显示出劳动力市场的强劲韧性。私营企业在招聘方面的表 现超出预期，新增就业岗位数量可观，这无疑暗示着就业市场依然保持着良好的运行状态。然而，华尔 街最初的反应却并不乐观，不过避险情绪的升温在一定程度上限制了金价的上涨幅度，使得黄金价格始 终未能突破4,000美元这一关键大关。 美联储内部对于经济形势的看法也存在分歧。一些官员的言论引起了市场的关注，例如美联储理事 Stephen Miran对ADP数据表示认可和赞赏，但他同时暗示利率或许应该进一步降低。芝加哥联邦储备银 行行长Austan Goolsbee在周一指出，通胀压力依然是一个不容忽视的问题；而美联储理事Lisa Cook则认 为，就业市场已经显露出一些脆弱的迹象。 此外，美国国内的政治动态也给市场带来了一定的不确定性。早些时候，美国最高法院计划就特朗普总 统征收关税的合法性举行听证会。此前，一家下 ...

基本面： 日线级别，金价昨日录得小实体阳线收盘继续盘踞短期回吐后偏低区间运行，显示短期市场仍具卖压，金价或仍面临3920--4030区间多空争夺，交易者留意 后市突破选择。1--4小时级别，金价自4380高位回吐后热度消退，自触及3886一线后迎来持续盘整态势并延续至本周盘中，隔夜价格自3930--3990区间未能 美国10月ADP小非农大超预期，新增就业4.2万个，高于市场预估的2.8万个；10月ISM非制造业PMI更是飙升至52.4，创下今年2月以来最高水平。新订单指 数强劲，服务业活动全面开花。数据一出，市场瞬间"鹰"声四起，美联储12月降息概率从上周的95%暴跌至62%，周三一度只有58%！美元指数盘中冲高 100.36，创5月29日以来新高；10年期美债收益率暴涨1.86%，收盘4.16%，创10月7日以来最高。好于预期的ADP数据可能并不意味着劳动力市场发生了实质 性变化，因为一些行业，例如专业商业服务业，已经连续第三个月裁员，但确实有助于缓解人们对劳动力市场疲软的担忧。 美国政府停摆已经进入第36天，刷新1879年以来最长纪录！13000名空管、50000名TSA安检员无薪上岗，航空公司已经炸锅 ...