更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘涨跌参半、大致平开，全天横向波动、小幅上涨，截至 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 上涨 | 0.07%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 上涨 | 0.05%，5 | 年期 | TF2603 | 上涨 | 0.06%，2 | 年期 | TS2603 | 上涨 | 0.01%。 | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Summary - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2] - The strategy views and investment logics in the report are based on publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week. Closing price data is from last Friday, and weekly changes are compared with the previous Friday's closing price [2] 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - Silver closed at 24965.00 with a 11.04% weekly increase; PTA at 5448.00 with an 8.57% increase; Gold at 1115.64 with a 7.74% increase; Ethylene glycol at 3997.00 with a 5.30% increase; Palm oil at 8910.00 with a 2.72% increase; Methanol at 2298.00 with a 2.64% increase; PVC at 4921.00 with a 2.46% increase; Aluminum at 24290.00 with a 1.53% increase; Polysilicon at 50720.00 with a 1.04% increase; Soybean meal at 2751.00 with a 0.88% increase; Corn at 2300.00 with a 0.83% increase; Crude oil at 441.90 with a 0.71% increase; Copper at 101340.00 with a 0.57% increase [3] - Rebar closed at 3142.00 with a - 0.66% change; Coking coal at 1157.00 with a - 1.20% change; Iron ore at 795.00 with a - 2.09% change; Live pigs at 11565.00 with a - 3.46% change; Glass at 1064.00 with a - 3.54% change [3] 2.2 A - shares - CSI 500 closed at 8590.17 with a 4.34% weekly increase; CSI 300 at 4702.50 with a - 0.62% change; SSE 50 at 3032.19 with a - 1.54% change [3] 2.3 Overseas Stock Markets - NASDAQ Composite closed at 23501.24 with a - 0.06% change; Nikkei 225 at 53846.87 with a - 0.17% change; S&P 500 at 6915.61 with a - 0.35% change; Hang Seng Index at 26749.51 with a - 0.36% change; FTSE 100 at 10143.44 with a - 0.90% change; France CAC40 at 8143.05 with a - 1.40% change [3] 2.4 Bonds - China's 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.60 with a - 1.01bp change; 10 - year at 1.83 with a - 1.12bp change; 2 - year at 1.39 with a - 1.19bp change [3] 2.5 Foreign Exchange - Euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.18 with a 1.97% increase; US dollar central parity rate was 6.99 with a - 0.21% change; US dollar index was 97.51 with a - 1.88% change [3] 3. Commodity Views Summary 3.1 Macro - finance Sector 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: 3 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logics: Global liquidity is loose; Small and medium - cap indexes receive capital inflows; The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy; China's GDP in 2025 grew by 5% year - on - year [4] - Bearish logics: Regulators signal to cool market sentiment; Near - month contracts of stock index futures have a large premium; Market differentiation intensifies; Corporate profit recovery expectations are not strong [4] 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logics: Risk - aversion sentiment rises; Domestic demand is insufficient; Allocation funds enter the market; The central bank maintains a loose liquidity environment [4] - Bearish logics: Concerns about long - term bond supply remain; The stock - bond seesaw effect may divert funds; The rebound of treasury bonds has partially realized positive factors; The "re - inflation" expectation has improved [4] 3.2 Energy Sector (Crude Oil) - Strategy views: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logics: US military deployment in the Middle East; Disruption at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield; Geopolitical events; Cold snap in Europe and America [5] - Bearish logics: Venezuela's export shift; Potential quick reversal of risk premium; High production from non - OPEC countries; High OECD oil inventories [5] 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector (Palm Oil) - Strategy views: 2 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logics: India's peak consumption season; Higher crude oil prices; Decreased production in Malaysia; Reduced domestic port inventory [5] - Bearish logics: High inventory in Malaysia; High domestic inventory; Indonesia's suspension of the B50 plan; Disadvantages in substitution [5] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector (Aluminum) - Strategy views: 2 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logics: Overseas supply disruptions; Capital inflows; Long - term demand expectations; Policy support [6] - Bearish logics: Rising domestic daily production; High prices suppressing demand; Seasonal consumption decline; Reduced speculative buying [6] 3.5 Chemical Industry Sector (PTA) - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logics: Capital inflows; Low inventory pressure of polyester products; Expected improvement in supply - demand and profit [6] - Bearish logics: Reduced production by polyester factories; High processing fees; Low profits of polyester products; Expected inventory build - up [6] 3.6 Precious Metals (Gold) - Strategy views: 3 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logics: Geopolitical risks; Central bank gold purchases; Expectations of a dovish Fed pause; Potential capital inflow into ETFs [7] - Bearish logics: Strong US economy; Technical overbought pressure; Potential "hawkish pause" signal from the Fed [7] 3.7 Black Sector (Coking Coal) - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logics: Winter storage demand; Expected supply contraction; Import disruptions; Overall market sentiment [7] - Bearish logics: Fast import of Mongolian coal; Weak demand from steel enterprises; Declining blast furnace operating rate; Lack of new upward drivers [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone a significant adjustment over the past five years, leading to a fundamental change in its role in household wealth. As bank interest rates continue to decline, residents are experiencing a trend of "deposit migration," prompting a reevaluation of asset allocation strategies among ordinary people. The discussion focuses on which types of real estate can retain value, whether the stock market can replace the real estate market as a wealth growth engine, and the future of gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market is currently in a phase of stabilization, with expectations that it has completed its downward trajectory and is entering a horizontal consolidation phase. However, the market is still in the process of finding its bottom, with significant declines in investment expected in 2024 and 2025 [2][4]. - The adjustment cycle of the real estate market is consistent with global trends, where prolonged growth is often followed by significant corrections due to demographic changes and aging populations [3]. - The current market dynamics show a disparity in supply and demand, with some cities experiencing high demand and low supply, while others face oversupply and insufficient demand. This differentiation is expected to persist [7][8]. Policy Recommendations - To stabilize the real estate market, policies should focus on stimulating demand and increasing supply. Current market conditions reflect a hesitance from both buyers and sellers, necessitating policy interventions to encourage transactions [5][6]. - The government should consider removing restrictive measures that hinder market activity, such as purchase limits and high down payment requirements, to enhance market liquidity [21][22]. Asset Allocation Trends - With the decline of the real estate market, the focus is shifting towards equity assets as a primary investment avenue. The stock market is expected to benefit from a favorable macroeconomic environment and supportive policies aimed at protecting investor interests [37][38]. - The potential for a significant portion of capital to flow from the real estate sector to the stock market is highlighted, as the total market value of real estate has decreased significantly, creating opportunities in equities [43][44]. Future of Gold - Gold is anticipated to maintain its appeal as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, with expectations of price increases in the coming years due to ongoing global uncertainties and demand from central banks [51][56].

Group 1: Overseas Economic Data - The U.S. labor market remains robust, with initial jobless claims at 200,000, below the expected 209,000, indicating no significant pressure [1] - The U.S. Markit Composite PMI for January is at 52.8, indicating continued expansion in both manufacturing and services sectors [1] Group 2: Domestic Important Data - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a net injection of 700 billion yuan through MLF operations, with a total of 900 billion yuan to be conducted [2] - The LPR remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year, marking eight consecutive months of stability [2] - PBOC Governor Pan stated that the bank will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2][3] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices have been on an upward trend since November, currently around $5,000 per ounce, with expectations to potentially exceed $6,000 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and a declining U.S. dollar index [6] - Silver has shown significant growth, with domestic futures rising from approximately 7,000 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of 2025 to 27,250 yuan per kilogram by January 23, 2026, and international prices reaching around $103.161 per ounce [9] Group 4: Currency Exchange Rate - As of January 23, the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate is at 6.963, indicating a continued appreciation trend for the RMB [11] Group 5: Funding and Bond Market Performance - The funding environment remains generally loose despite tax period disturbances, with overnight rates showing an increase [14] - The bond market has seen a downward trend in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8298%, down from 1.8424% the previous week [20][21] - The credit bond market has shown improvement, with yields on city investment bonds decreasing [25][26]

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is reported at 4.5% year-on-year, indicating a gradual decline in economic growth[1] - Fixed asset investment shows a rare negative year-on-year change of -3.8% in December, while retail sales decreased by 0.12% month-on-month, weaker than seasonal expectations[1] - Only the dollar-denominated exports in December showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% supported by AI capital expenditure and competitive advantages in Chinese manufacturing[1] Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank indicates there is still room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates, suggesting a potential bottoming out of interest rates if yields continue to decline[2] - The 10-year government bond yield has slightly retreated to 1.8298% amid excess MLF renewals and rising overseas risk aversion[1] Market Reactions - The global bond market is experiencing increased volatility, with significant sell-offs observed, particularly in Japan where the 40-year bond yield surpassed 4% for the first time in over 30 years[2] - The U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields have risen by at least 4 basis points, reflecting a broader trend of rising yields across major global bond markets[2] Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China has announced adjustments to the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to no less than 30%[2] - The implementation period for personal consumption loan interest subsidies has been extended to December 31, 2026, with expected effective rates potentially dropping to around 2%[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected tightening of liquidity, unanticipated changes in monetary policy, and uncertainties in institutional and individual investment behaviors[3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of targeted operations to effectively counter seasonal liquidity pressures, maintaining a reasonable level of liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival [1] - On January 26, the PBOC conducted a 150.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, despite a net withdrawal of 207.8 billion yuan in the open market on the same day [1] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing during the week of January 26-30 reached 1.181 trillion yuan, alongside MLF maturities, resulting in a liquidity withdrawal pressure exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The PBOC has optimized structural monetary policy tools by lowering interest rates on loans for agriculture and small enterprises, as well as for technological innovation [3] - PBOC officials indicated that there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates this year, although the urgency for a reserve requirement cut before the Spring Festival has decreased [3] - Market analysts expect that the PBOC may implement 1 to 2 reserve requirement cuts and potentially 2 interest rate cuts in 2026, with the timing for policy rate reductions anticipated in the second quarter [3]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一国债期货主力合约开盘大致平开，全天横向窄幅波动，30 | 年期品种略多，截至 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 上涨 | 0.20%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 下跌 | 0.02%，5 | 年期 | TF2603 | 下跌 | 0.02%，2 | 年期 | TS2603 | 下跌 | 0.02%。 | | 【重 ...

Report Information - Report Date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Industry: Treasury Bond [1] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals and commodity futures rallied, suppressing the sentiment in the bond market. Coupled with the tight balance of funds, most treasury bond futures closed slightly lower [8]. - The interest rates of major-term spot bonds in the interbank market fluctuated within a narrow range. The yield of the 10-year active treasury bond 250016 dropped by 0.5bp to 1.825% as of 16:30 [9]. - The tax period is coming to an end, but the funds remain in a tight balance. The supply of government bonds is large this week, and there is a cross-month pressure. However, the central bank is likely to provide support. The net repurchase of reverse repos in the open market today was 20.78 billion yuan. The overnight DR rate in the interbank market rose by 1.91bp to 1.417%, and the 7-day fund rate rose by 8bp to 1.5738%. The medium- and long-term funds were stable, and the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped to 1.59% [10]. - January is a stage where the negative factors in the bond market are gradually materializing. The new regulations on public fund fees were officially implemented on December 31, 2025, which may ease the short-term redemption and selling pressure. In addition, January will be a month with large supply under the background of front-loaded fiscal stimulus, and there is a demand for credit impulse at the beginning of the year, which will impact the bond allocation demand and increase the supply pressure [11]. - The structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut or another interest rate cut in the short term is low. The market may enter a policy observation period again. However, the central bank officials also said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and the easing orientation remains unchanged. The stage with large supply-demand mismatch pressure in the first quarter may bring allocation opportunities. In the short term, after the release of this month's economic data, there will be a data vacuum period of up to 1.5 months. The implementation of the structural interest rate cut last week may mean that the market has entered a policy observation period. The expectation of easing may not significantly heat up before the Two Sessions in March. The short-term positive factors have been realized, but there are no obvious negative factors, so the market may remain volatile [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Precious metals and commodity futures rallies suppressed the bond market sentiment, and most treasury bond futures closed slightly lower. The interest rates of major-term spot bonds in the interbank market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond 250016 dropped by 0.5bp to 1.825% as of 16:30 [8][9]. - **Funding Situation**: The tax period is coming to an end, but the funds remain in a tight balance. The supply of government bonds is large this week, and there is a cross-month pressure. However, the central bank is likely to provide support. The net repurchase of reverse repos in the open market today was 20.78 billion yuan. The overnight DR rate in the interbank market rose by 1.91bp to 1.417%, and the 7-day fund rate rose by 8bp to 1.5738%. The medium- and long-term funds were stable, and the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped to 1.59% [10]. - **Conclusion**: January is a stage where the negative factors in the bond market are gradually materializing. The new regulations on public fund fees were officially implemented on December 31, 2025, which may ease the short-term redemption and selling pressure. In addition, January will be a month with large supply under the background of front-loaded fiscal stimulus, and there is a demand for credit impulse at the beginning of the year, which will impact the bond allocation demand and increase the supply pressure. The structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut or another interest rate cut in the short term is low. The market may enter a policy observation period again. However, the central bank officials also said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and the easing orientation remains unchanged. The stage with large supply-demand mismatch pressure in the first quarter may bring allocation opportunities. In the short term, after the release of this month's economic data, there will be a data vacuum period of up to 1.5 months. The implementation of the structural interest rate cut last week may mean that the market has entered a policy observation period. The expectation of easing may not significantly heat up before the Two Sessions in March. The short-term positive factors have been realized, but there are no obvious negative factors, so the market may remain volatile [11][12]. 2. Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission officially issued the guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds, and the Asset Management Association of China simultaneously issued the operating rules, which will come into effect on March 1, 2026. The new regulations focus on four aspects: accurate portrait, full-process supervision, linking with compensation, and information transparency, aiming at the pain points in the industry such as "vague benchmarks", "style drift", and "fund blind boxes". The new regulations specify a one-year transition period for the adjustment of the benchmarks of existing products [13]. - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. President Xi emphasized that in the current volatile international situation, China and Brazil, as important members of the Global South, should firmly stand on the right side of history, better safeguard the common interests of the two countries and the Global South, and jointly maintain the core position of the United Nations and international fairness and justice [13]. - Regarding the question of whether US President Donald Trump will visit China in April, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that there is currently no information to provide. In response to the US statement that it will "allow" China to buy Venezuelan oil but not at a specific price, Guo Jiakun said that Venezuela is a sovereign country and has the right to independently choose its cooperation partners [13]. - People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said in an interview that while focusing on domestic growth stabilization, the People's Bank of China will continue to promote the reform of global financial governance and international financial cooperation in 2026, continue to promote the high-level opening up of the financial service industry and financial markets, and orderly promote the internationalization of the RMB [13]. - Shenzhen issued the management measures for affordable housing for sale, clarifying that the affordable housing for sale will be strictly managed in a closed manner, and it is prohibited to change it into commercial housing in any way. In addition, according to the Shenzhen Branch of the People's Bank of China, since January 23, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing (including "residential and commercial buildings") has been adjusted to no less than 30% [14]. - Since the beginning of 2026, the policy combination path has become clearer: the central bank has lowered the cost of funds through various tools, and the fiscal department has "lightened the burden" on households and enterprises through interest subsidies, subsidies, and guarantees. Banks are more inclined to gradually reduce high-interest long-term deposit products and turn to lower-cost and more flexible-term liability sources; at the same time, they launch some structured products with seemingly higher returns but with certain conditions. Everyone faces three choices: continue to deposit, accept low returns and high security; allocate medium- and low-volatility assets such as treasury bonds and bond funds; or enter the equity and structured product markets [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides the trading data of treasury bond futures on January 26, including the settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of each contract [6]. - **Money Market**: The report provides the data of the SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trend, interbank pledged repurchase weighted average interest rate, and interbank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate [28][32]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report provides the data of the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34].

Economic Indicators - As of January 25, 2026, the ECI supply index is at 50.06%, up 0.10 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.84%[8] - The ECI investment index is at 49.83%, unchanged from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.65%, down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The ECI export index has increased to 50.22%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week[8] Industrial Production - The operating rate for automotive full steel tires has improved by 20.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the cement shipment rate has increased by 13.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year[2] - The overall industrial production shows significant improvement due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with various industries experiencing better operating rates compared to last year[17] Real Estate Market - The sales growth of second-hand homes continues to recover, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.9% for the week of January 17-23, 2026, marking the first positive year-on-year change since October 2025[2] Consumer Market - The retail sales of passenger cars are expected to rebound from a year-on-year decline of -14.0% in December 2025 to a growth of 0.3% in January 2026[2] - The "trade-in" policy has shown positive effects, with significant improvements in appliance sales during the week of January 12-18, 2026[2] Export Performance - The cumulative cargo throughput at monitored ports in January 2026 is recorded at an average of 25,967.4 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 3.5%[2] - January exports are expected to maintain strong resilience, supported by a higher number of working days compared to the previous year[2] Inflation Trends - The average wholesale price of pork has increased to 18.48 yuan/kg, showing a marginal recovery, while the average price of 28 key monitored vegetables is at 5.65 yuan/kg, also reflecting a slight increase[44] - The CPI is expected to continue rising due to the seasonal demand for food products and the increase in international oil prices[2] Monetary Policy - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) has been preemptively rolled over with an excess of 9,000 billion yuan, indicating a total liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan in January 2026[16] - The ELI index stands at -0.71%, having increased by 0.07 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[13] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[59] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market is still under observation[59]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on January 26, 2026 [1] - The analyst is Liang Weichao with SAC registration number S1340523070001 [2] Group 2: Core Views - The high point of bond yields has appeared, and the repair is continuing. The timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is crucial for the bond market's repair progress during the subsequent stock market's spring rally [3] - The probability of monetary easing is higher in the first half of the year. The time window for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may be around the Two Sessions in March, before which the yield curve will price in the expectations [3][13] - From the perspective of funds, overnight rates are around the policy rate, and there is no significant fluctuation before the Spring Festival. The short - term central rate may decline before the Spring Festival when cross - festival funds are not tight [3][13] - The high point of long - term yields has appeared, and the central downward space is smaller than that of short - term yields. The 10 - year and 30 - year yields have allocation value, but the 30 - year yield has higher volatility and greater trading difficulty [4][18] - From the "stock - bond relationship" perspective, the yield repair is almost in place. If interest rate cuts occur in spring, there may be a stage of simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds, and yields may decline slightly; otherwise, the bond market repair is almost complete [4][20] Group 3: Market Conditions and Trends Configuration and Trading Sentiment - The return of the allocation disk and the repair of the trading disk have warmed the bond market sentiment. Large - scale banks have increased their allocation demand and bought 7 - 10 - year treasury bonds in the secondary market, and the credit spread of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has declined, indicating the repair of the product household's liability side [10] Impact of Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - The central bank has implemented interest rate cuts for structural monetary policy tools, indicating that short - term policy rate cuts are unlikely in the short term, but there is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts throughout the year, and the bond yield curve may shift downward as a whole or show a slight bullish steepening [12] Fund Situation - Overnight funds are around the policy rate, and the 7 - day fund price remains stable. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to smooth out the seasonal fluctuations before the Spring Festival, and the current state of funds is still relatively stable and loose [13] Short - term Yield - The 1 - year treasury bond yield has declined and is below 1.3%. Short - term varieties such as inter - bank certificates of deposit are also following the downward trend. However, if the R007 remains above 1.5% before the Spring Festival, the downward space for NCD rates is limited [15][16] Long - term Yield - The high point of long - term yields has appeared, and the central downward space is smaller than that of short - term yields. The 10 - year yield has limited short - term downward odds but has allocation value, while the 30 - year yield also has allocation value but high trading difficulty [4][18] Stock - Bond Relationship - The 2026 stock market's spring rally is likely to be characterized by "mid - stage acceleration, easing expectations, and growth - led", which will have a short - term impact on the bond market rather than a trend - based negative impact. Currently, the 10 - year treasury bond has recovered its decline since the beginning of the year, and the 30 - year treasury bond is still 3 BP away from full recovery [4][20]