尽管黄金近期出现大幅抛售，但包括摩根大通在内的一些大型银行并未因此动摇对黄金的乐观看法。摩根大通周一表示，随着央行和投资者需求的 推动，黄金价格有望在年底前升至每盎司6,300美元，黄金的长期投资逻辑依然稳固。 摩根大通分析师在一份报告中称："尽管上周的抛售影响尚未完全消散，但这并未动摇我们对黄金的结构性看涨观点。黄金的这一轮长期上涨并非、 也不会是线性的，因此目前我们再次进入消化、重置并继续前行的阶段。"该行认为，来自投资者和央行的异常强劲需求将为金价提供支撑，预计季 度平均需求将超过700公吨，并预测到2027年金价有望向每盎司6,600美元迈进。 摩根大通分析师写道："我们的分析显示，尽管随着金价不断攀升，继续上行的空间正在变得更为狭窄，但我们距离那种黄金结构性上涨因自身压力 而崩塌的阶段仍然相当遥远。" 哈内特等策略师表示，自特朗普就职以来，美元实际上已经下跌了12%。该策略师指出，弱势美元是重振宾夕法尼亚、密歇根和威斯康星等"铁锈 带"类型的摇摆州制造业的关键举措。这不仅仅是经济账，更是关乎特朗普政治生存的必选项。数据明确显示，特朗普的支持率与其任期内的美元走 势呈现高度负相关——即美元越弱，支持率 ...

2月3日，现货金银日内走高。截至9:30，现货黄金涨至4852.47美元/盎司，日内涨4.15%。 历史罕见！国投白银LOF跌超31% 有人称"两天亏掉一个月利润" 受国际银价大幅波动影响，2月2日，复牌即被牢牢封死跌停板的国投白银LOF成为市场关注焦点。 同日晚间，国投白银LOF最新公告称，鉴于近期白银国际主要市场价格出现显著波动，与上期所白银期货差异较大，国投瑞银经与相关基金托管人协商一 致，决定参考白银期货国际主要市场的价格变动幅度，对基金资产进行合理重估。 受估值方式调整影响，国投白银LOF 2月2日单日净值跌幅达31.5%，创公募基金单日下跌历史纪录。同时，据此计算，目前二级市场价格溢价率达 109.92%。业内人士提醒，投资者不要盲目跟风，理性评估风险与收益，普通投资者不要参与高溢价品种的炒作。 白银价格持续反弹。截至09:34，现货白银涨幅扩大至8%，报85.5美元/盎司；纽约期银日内涨超11%，现报85.60美元/盎司。 黄金开年一路飙升至历史新高，1月30日却骤然遭遇20世纪80年代以来最大跌幅。更糟糕的是，2月2日，现货黄金再次一度暴跌约10%，逼近4400美元/关 口。据智通财经，黄金三 ...

"补仓！补仓！还是补仓！"近日，京东金融平台博主"黄金蛋炒饭"的"金友圈"被这几个字刷屏。 2026年2月2日下午，伦敦现货黄金价格跌破4500美元/盎司，国内积存金价格同步下探，他在京东金融 平台上果断以1016.27元/克买入近200克黄金积存金。这已是自今年1月29日金价创新高以来，他的第12 次补仓。 建设银行也发布了关于调整个人黄金积存业务定期积存起点金额的公告，自2月2日9:10起，该行个人黄 金积存业务定期积存起点金额(包括日均积存及自选日积存)上调至1500元。 不过，跌势并未止步。1月30日至1月31日凌晨，伦敦现货黄金价格再次跳水，跌至4710美元/盎司。市 场恐慌情绪开始出现，这一轮下跌也让博主"黄金蛋炒饭"陷入犹豫。1月31日晚，他谨慎完成两次买入 操作，节奏明显放缓。直至2月2日的再度抄底，他的持仓成本均价从最初的1200元/克上方摊薄至 920.05元/克。 谈及12次补仓操作，他感慨地说："心理防线一破再破，只能逢低加仓，不要妄想抄底。" 选择补仓的投资者还有"买在高点"的单彤。1月29日，金价冲高时，她受朋友圈赚钱热潮影响，盲目跟 风冲入市场，在1237元—1248元/克的高位 ...

2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的"惊魂记"。 在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄 金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。 面对"闪崩"，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和德意志银行等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。 在他们看来，这并非牛市的终结，而是一次极致挤压后的"健康清算"。在宏观叙事未变的背景下，黄金正处于通往6000美元目标的"技术性休 整"。 与此同时，一个关键的支撑是，中国买家正在疯狂扫货。德银报告显示，中国投资者目前的买入黄金ETF强度可能是去年的三倍以上。 大行共识："极致拥挤"后的技术性回踩 黄金之所以在近期出现剧烈调整，在华尔街眼中更多是"技术性"而非"根本性"的。瑞银在最新的报告中直言： 别慌，基本面没变 黄金涨势结束了吗？简而言之，我们的答案是否定的。 该行认为，金价从高位回落约21%，主要归结为短期投机头寸的"大清洗"。此前的单边暴涨导致市场仓位过度拥挤，当获利盘涌出时，踩踏效应 被成倍放大。瑞银策略师Joni Teves认为 ...

Group 1 - The spot gold price has risen to $4,850 per ounce, recovering $180 from the daily low, with an intraday increase of over 4% [1][5] - Wall Street's latest outlook on gold indicates that while short-term selling pressure remains and volatility is high, the long-term bullish trend is intact [6] - Major investment institutions like Bank of America and JPMorgan believe that the gold price, which has already surpassed $5,000 this year, is likely to continue rising, potentially reaching the historic $6,000 mark, entering what is referred to as the "6K era" [6]

结构性修正 2月2日，贵金属急跌行情仍未平息，多品种价格再度大幅跳水。其中，伦敦金现盘中一度失守4700、 4600、4500美元多个整数关口，距离跌穿4400美元也近在咫尺，盘中最大单日跌幅约10%。而就在金价 跌穿60日均线后，黄金也迎来明显反弹，截至18:00，伦敦金现价格回升至4700美元上方，日内跌幅收 窄至3.69%。自1月29日以来，伦敦金价自5598.75美元/盎司的历史高位跌去近700美元，三日内跌幅达 12.81%，行情的剧烈震荡也引发对后市方向的高度关注——黄金牛市能否延续？ 多空博弈 经历三天的明显下挫后，黄金的年内涨幅也已出现明显回吐。年初至1月29日，伦敦金现年内最大涨幅 一度逼近30%，而截至2月2日18:00，年内涨幅已回吐至9.1%。不过，从盘面表现来看，2月2日的K线显 示为长下影线，伦敦金价获得明显支撑，显示多空双方的激烈博弈。 针对此次黄金暴跌行情，有市场分析认为，美国总统特朗普1月30日提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯 文·沃什为下任美联储主席，加剧了此次贵金属价格大跌。沃什曾公开批评量化宽松政策的副作用，认 为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作。 与此同时，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant sell-off in the global precious metals market has led to a sharp decline in gold and silver prices, with gold dropping below $5000 per ounce and silver experiencing a dramatic fall of 36% at one point [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Spot gold prices fell by 9.52% to $4865 per ounce, with intraday losses exceeding 12% [1]. - Spot silver saw a decline of 26.9%, closing at $84.7 per ounce, while platinum and palladium dropped by 17.59% and 14.89%, respectively [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also fell significantly, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang reporting daily declines of over 100 yuan per gram [4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has raised concerns about a more hawkish monetary policy, which could suppress market expectations for further interest rate cuts [5][6]. - Market analysts suggest that the sell-off may be driven by forced liquidation due to high leverage among traders, particularly in the silver market [6]. - The market is reacting to the prospect of a stronger dollar and a reassessment of concentrated risks, contributing to the decline in precious metal prices [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the gold bull market may not be over, as the Federal Reserve's policies and the U.S. economy have not yet reached a turning point [10]. - CICC anticipates that inflation in the U.S. will continue to rise, potentially leading to a slowdown in the Fed's easing measures, which could exert temporary pressure on gold prices [10]. - The outlook for silver is expected to be more volatile than gold due to its smaller market size and lower liquidity [10].

Core Viewpoint - The volatility of gold has surpassed that of Bitcoin, marking a significant shift in market dynamics, as gold is traditionally viewed as a stable safe-haven asset while Bitcoin is known for its extreme volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold's 30-day volatility indicator has surged to over 44%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, exceeding Bitcoin's volatility of approximately 39% [1]. - The recent spike in gold volatility reflects a broader market trend where traditional safe-haven assets respond more rapidly to macroeconomic risk changes compared to riskier assets like Bitcoin [2]. - The last time gold's volatility exceeded Bitcoin's was in May 2025, during a period of heightened trade tensions [3]. Group 2: Price Movements - Gold prices experienced a dramatic decline, with a drop of nearly 10% on a recent Monday, falling to around $4,400 per ounce from a peak close to $5,600 [6]. - Despite the recent volatility, gold prices have increased by approximately 66% over the past 12 months, while Bitcoin has decreased by 21% [8]. - Analysts from major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Bank of America predict that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by ongoing demand from central banks and private investors [8][10]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Retail investors in Asia have shown increased interest in purchasing physical gold, indicating a trend of "buying the dip" rather than panic selling [9]. - The macroeconomic drivers supporting the rise in gold and physical assets remain robust, with concerns over U.S. debt and currency depreciation continuing to fuel demand [9][10]. - Despite the recent price corrections, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, as the fundamental demand from central banks and retail investors is expected to persist [10].

如果用一个词来形容2026年1月的黄金市场，那不是"牛市"，而是失控。 短短不到三周时间，金价从4600美元一路狂奔，先后突破4700、4800、4900美元，最终在1月26日首次 站上5000美元关口，并在随后几天内持续加速。到1月29日，现货黄金最高触及5600美元上方，几乎每 天都在刷新历史纪录。 然而，就在市场还沉浸在"黄金还能涨到哪里"的狂热情绪中时，1月30日，一记重锤落下。 当日，现货黄金从前一交易日的历史高位5600美元大幅跳水，盘中最低一度触及4686.12美元，单日最 大跌幅接近10%，最终收于4883.62美元。这是1983年以来黄金最大单日跌幅，也是现代贵金属交易史 上极为罕见的一幕。 在这一阶段，黄金几乎不再需要新的利多消息。"涨本身"成了最大的利多。无论是通胀、地缘风险，还 是美元信用问题，都只是上涨叙事的背景板。 二、黑色星期五：史上最惨烈的单日暴跌 1月12日：4600美元 1月20日：4700美元 1月21日：4800美元 1月22日：4900美元 1月26日：5100美元 1月28日：5400美元 1月29日：5600美元 暴跌发生得极其突然。1月30日，美盘时段，黄金与白 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold and precious metal prices have prompted China Merchants Bank to adjust its gold trading business, increasing margin requirements for various gold contracts [1][2]. Group 1: Margin Adjustments - Starting from February 2, 2026, the margin ratio for Au(T+D), mAu(T+D), Au(T+N1), Au(T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 contracts will be raised from 60% to 70%, while the price fluctuation limit remains at 15% [1]. - The margin level for Ag(T+D) contracts will also increase from 60% to 70% on the same date, with potential adjustments to the price fluctuation limit depending on market conditions [1]. Group 2: Previous Adjustments - Prior to this announcement, on January 30, 2026, China Merchants Bank had already raised the margin ratios for the same gold contracts from 49% to 60%, while the Ag(T+D) margin increased from 48% to 60% [2]. Group 3: Market Context - Other banks, including Agricultural Bank and Postal Savings Bank, have also adjusted their margin requirements for gold contracts in response to recent market volatility [4]. - Significant price fluctuations were noted, with gold prices rising from $5,200 to $5,600 per ounce between January 28 and 29, 2026, followed by a sharp decline, including a nearly 13% drop on January 31, marking the largest single-day drop in nearly 40 years [4][5]. - As of February 2, 2026, gold was priced at $4,692.54 per ounce, reflecting a 4.14% decline, while silver was at $81.38 per ounce, down 4.55% [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite recent declines, long-term bullish sentiment on gold remains, with expectations that U.S. inflation may decline in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to further support for gold prices [5].