Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data reflects the impact of tariff shocks, indicating that the previous "export rush" has come to an end, with significant declines in both manufacturing PMI and new export orders, surpassing the declines seen in 2018 [1] Dimension 1: Direct Impact - The new export orders index for April PMI dropped by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, marking a decline much steeper than the -2.7 percentage points seen during the lowest growth rates between 2018-2019 [5] - High-frequency data also shows a clear decline in export container freight rates to regions such as the U.S. West Coast, East Coast, and South America in April, signaling the end of the "export rush" [5] Dimension 2: Indirect Impact - The PMI new orders index, representing domestic demand, fell to 49.2% (down 2.6 percentage points), while the PMI production index dropped to 49.8% (down 2.8 percentage points), both falling below the growth threshold and contributing to the overall decline in manufacturing PMI [11] Dimension 3: Corporate Behavior Impact - As demand weakens, companies are more inclined to reduce prices to clear inventory, with the PMI finished goods inventory index decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 47.3% and the PMI production expectations index falling by 1.7 percentage points [13] - The PMI ex-factory price index also declined by 3.1 percentage points to 44.8%, indicating ongoing downward pressure on inflation [13] Dimension 4: Employment and Expectations Impact - The negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the PMI employment index and production expectations index may be more significant and longer-lasting than the direct effects on exports [16] - The PMI employment index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9%, aligning with the political bureau's emphasis on "stabilizing employment," "stabilizing enterprises," and "stabilizing expectations" [16] Dimension 5: Impact by Enterprise Type - In April, the PMIs for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.2%, 48.8%, and 48.7% respectively, with declines of 2.0 percentage points, 1.1 percentage points, and 0.9 percentage points, indicating a downturn in business sentiment across all sizes, particularly among small enterprises [17] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing sector also experienced a decline, with the construction PMI at 51.9% (down 1.5 percentage points) and the services PMI at 50.1% (down 0.2 percentage points), both at historically low levels [20] Policy Implications - The tariff shocks reflected in the PMI data suggest that policy measures may need to prioritize "stabilizing livelihoods" over "total countermeasures," with a focus on targeted structural policies for affected enterprises expected to be accelerated [22]

Group 1 - Company bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.06% to a latest price of 105.57 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.15% over the past six months as of April 29, 2025 [3] - The liquidity of the company bond ETF showed a turnover of 0.85% with a transaction volume of 113 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past month was 1.802 billion yuan [3] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 13.258 billion yuan, with the latest share count at 12.6 million, marking a new high in the past month [3] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI data from Huaxi Securities on April 30 and the central bank's announcement of a buyout repurchase scale may act as catalysts for market volatility [4] - High-frequency data suggests that enterprises may be transitioning from "grabbing exports" to "grabbing trans-exports," indicating a potential for manufacturing sentiment to exceed market expectations [4] Group 3 - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) showed a mixed market with a latest quote of 117.39 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.04% over the past month as of April 29, 2025 [7] - The liquidity of the national debt ETF indicated a turnover of 3.77% with a transaction volume of approximately 55.33 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past week was 470 million yuan [7] - The latest scale of the national debt ETF reached 1.47 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past three months [7] Group 4 - The national development bond ETF (159651) increased by 0.03% to a latest price of 105.91 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 2.36% over the past year as of April 29, 2025 [10] - The liquidity of the national development bond ETF showed a turnover of 3.98% with a transaction volume of approximately 54.41 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past year was 617 million yuan [10] - The national development bond ETF experienced a significant growth in scale by 388 million yuan over the past six months, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [10] Group 5 - The three main members of the Ping An Fund bond ETF include the company bond ETF (511030), national development bond ETF (159651), and national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020), covering various types of bonds to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For stock index futures, the strategy suggests a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] 2. Core Views Stock Index - The US Commerce Secretary mentioned progress in some tariff negotiations, boosting US stocks. However, US economic data such as March JOLTS job openings, April consumer confidence index, and March commodity trade deficit were poor. China's President emphasized building a global innovation high - tech hub. With strong domestic strategic determination, the probability of major favorable policies before the holiday is low, and a defensive approach is recommended [1] Treasury Bond - The first PMI data after the tariff trade war will be released. The previous EPMI decline exceeded the seasonal level. Attention should be paid to whether the April official PMI is significantly weaker than expected. Although the downward trend of interest rates has not reversed, the market has fully priced in the rally, and the odds of going long have decreased after yields reached low levels. Whether yields can break previous lows depends on changes in fundamental data and the entry of allocation funds. Current interest rate trading should focus on the safety margin [2] 3. Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.21%, SSE 50 fell 0.35%, CSI 500 rose 0.23%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.70% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.23%, 0.13%, 0.69%, and 0.01% respectively [6] 4. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the market is oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating [7] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/contract) | Change (%) | Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,724.80 | - 0.2143 | 37,569 | 134,140 | | 2025/04/28 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,621.20 | - 0.3498 | 20,683 | 43,068 | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,487.20 | 0.2338 | 34,048 | 95,869 | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5,773.60 | 0.7047 | 116,166 | 159,461 | | 2025/04/28 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.120 | 0.2342 | 51,372 | 192,474 | | 2025/04/28 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.070 | 0.1322 | 50,163 | 157,294 | | 2025/04/28 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.980 | 0.6908 | 77,545 | 106,469 | | 2025/04/28 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.332 | 0.0059 | 34,240 | 93,075 | [9]

当我们感悟到异常，发现预期差时，阻碍我们去行动的最大障碍就是"希望交易"，尤其是，当市场已经开始出现相应的波动后，"回头看"会让我们后悔没 有在最佳的位置买入或卖出，于是就希望市场回到之前的位置再执行。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250429— 经济学 VS 医学（+博弈明日PMI数据+资金面均衡偏松=小下)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展3405亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2205亿元逆回购到期，净投放1200亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，DR001下至1.54%附近，DR007因跨月小幅上至1.78%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.04.29) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.59 | 3 1 | | 2. ...

Economic Indicators - The April manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be released on April 30, with March's PMI recorded at 50.5%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking the highest level since April 2024 [2] - The composite PMI output index for March was 51.4%, indicating increased business activity, with manufacturing production index at 52.6% and non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.8% [2] Oil Price Adjustment - A new round of refined oil price adjustments will take place at 24:00 on April 30, with a projected increase of 60 yuan per ton based on a reference crude oil price of $65.34 per barrel, reflecting a change rate of 1.46% as of April 25 [3] U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. will release its first-quarter GDP data on April 30, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicating a potential slowdown in economic growth for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year's strong performance [4] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April will be published on May 2, following a March increase of 228,000 in seasonally adjusted non-farm employment, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.2% [5] Stock Market Developments - Over 4.07 billion yuan worth of locked-up shares will be released next week, with 24.76 billion shares set to be listed, including significant unlocks from companies like China Resources Materials and Chengda Biology, each exceeding 5 billion yuan [6] New Stock Opportunities - Two new stocks will be issued from April 28 to April 30, with Zairun New Energy on the ChiNext and Tiangong Co. on the Beijing Stock Exchange, collectively raising approximately 1.194 billion yuan [11]

Core Insights - The U.S. business activity is experiencing a significant slowdown in April, with a marked decline in market confidence [1] - The PMI data indicates that the growth rate of business activity is at its slowest since December 2023, reflecting an annualized growth rate of only 1.0% [1] - Inflationary pressures are increasing, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve as it seeks to stimulate a weakening economy [1] Economic Activity - The output growth in April is the slowest recorded since December 2023, indicating a concerning trend for the U.S. economy [1] - Manufacturing is largely stagnant, with any positive effects from tariffs being offset by heightened economic uncertainty, supply chain concerns, and declining exports [1] - The service sector is also slowing down, particularly in areas related to tourism and exports, due to a decrease in demand growth [1] Market Confidence - There is a sharp deterioration in confidence regarding business conditions for the upcoming year, largely driven by increasing concerns over policy impacts [1] - The overall sentiment in the market is negatively affected by the combination of economic slowdown and rising inflation [1]

Market Analysis - Dow Jones 30 has gapped to the upside and is approaching the crucial 40,100 area, which has been significant in the past, indicating potential volatility ahead [1] - The S&P 500 has also gapped higher, with the 5,000 region appearing to be a market floor and the 5,500 level potentially acting as a ceiling due to previous market behavior [3] Volume and Market Sentiment - There has been a noticeable increase in trading volume over the past week, suggesting strong interest in re-entering the stock market, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [2] - The market's reaction to tariff negotiations has been significant, with positive news leading to sharp upward movements, highlighting the sensitivity of the market to trade discussions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI has shown a slight recovery, indicating a mixed economic outlook with strengths in the manufacturing sector and weaknesses in the construction industry [2][4][5]. Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for March is reported at 50.5%, an increase from the previous value of 50.2% [2][16]. - The production index stands at 52.6%, up by 0.1 percentage points from 52.5% [16]. - The new orders index has risen to 51.8% from 51.1%, while the new export orders index is at 49.0%, slightly up from 48.6% [16]. - The employment index is at 48.2%, down from 48.6%, indicating a contraction in employment [16]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, down from 51.0%, and the raw material inventory index is at 47.2%, slightly up from 47.0% [16]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The construction sector's PMI is at 53.4%, down from 56.2% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown [5][10]. - The construction employment index has dropped to 41.4% from 45.6%, reflecting a significant decline in workforce [10]. - The new orders index for construction is at 43.5%, down from 46.8%, highlighting ongoing demand concerns [10]. - The basic raw materials PMI is at 49.3%, down from 49.8%, influenced by the weak construction sector [10]. Group 3: Economic Assessment - The comprehensive PMI index for Q1 is at 50.9%, higher than Q4 2023 and Q3 2024, but lower than Q4 2024 and Q1-Q2 2024 [3][13]. - The manufacturing sector shows strength, particularly in the midstream equipment manufacturing, with a PMI of 52% [4][9]. - The EPMI index for March is reported at 59.6%, indicating robust performance in the equipment manufacturing sector [4][9].

每日债市复盘 10Y国开(240205) 20240430 2.480 较上一交易日: ↓ 5.35 BP 2.460 政治局会议:要灵活 运用利率和存款准备 2.440 金率等政策工具 2.420 2.400 今日央行大额净投放,PMI数据基本符合预 期,股市小幅下跌,债市利率大幅下行。 2.380 2.360 。今日关注: ☆ 明日关注: b 资金面: 均衡 2.340 OMO净投放4380亿元 4月官方制造业PMI: 美联储议息会议 (5.2) 2.320 R001: 2.00%; R007: 2.09% 50.4, 前值50.8 五一假期消费数据 2.300 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 ...