意大利4月失业率 5.9%，预期6.1%，前值由6.00%修正为6.1%。 ...

行情回顾： 评论称，净出口对GDP的拖累达4.9个百分点，较首次预测略有扩大。GDP数据的小幅上修得益于商业投资增 强和库存积累增加。展望未来，预测者普遍预计二季度GDP将反弹，原因在于更高的关税会抑制进口，而已进 口的商品将形成更大库存，推动增长数据回升。除此之外，经济学家和政策制定者将密切关注特朗普政策（包 括贸易、移民和税收政策）对未来消费和商业支出的影响。 分析称，随着劳动力市场环境持续宽松，5月失业率或已上升。尽管疫情期间及之后企业因招工难而倾向于保 留员工，但特朗普政府激进的贸易政策引发经济不确定性，导致裁员现象增加，企业难以制定长期规划。此前 美国银行研究所报告显示，2月至4月期间，领取失业救济的高收入家庭数量同比大幅增加，4月中低收入家庭 申领人数同比亦显著上升。经济学家预计，受季节性波动数据调整难度影响，6月初请人数可能突破今年20.5 万至24.3万的区间，但这一趋势与近年相似，未必反映劳动力市场状况的实质性转变。美联储今晨的会议纪要 显示，尽管决策者认为劳动力市场总体平衡，但"评估认为未来几个月劳动力市场存在走弱风险"，并指出就业 前景"存在相当大的不确定性"，其结果"在很大程度上取决于 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The tin price has broken below the oscillation range, and the trend strength of tin is -1, indicating a bearish view [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 257,870 with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 251,810 with a decline of -2.28%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 30,850 with a decline of -2.05%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 5,435 and 389 respectively compared to the previous day, while for the LME Tin 3M electronic disk, the trading volume decreased by 9 and the open interest increased by 53 [2] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 76 to 7,908, and the inventory of LME Tin remained unchanged at 2,680. The注销仓单 ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the previous day [2] - **Spot and Spread Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 1,000 to 264,400, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price decreased by 5,700 to 258,900. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 17 to -72 [2] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi decreased by 1,000, and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars decreased by 500 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Trump's government temporarily restored the tariff policy after the appellate court approved the request to stop the ruling that blocked the tariff. The White House advisor is confident in overthrowing the court's ruling, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warned that the impact of the court's ruling may be limited [3] - Trump met with Powell and asked for an interest - rate cut, but Powell insisted on policy independence [3] - The US economy shrank slightly in the first quarter, and labor data showed that the unemployment rate in May may rise [3] - A US judge will order the government to indefinitely maintain Harvard University's student visa program [3] - Huang Renxun plans to sell up to 6 million shares of NVIDIA, worth over $800 million [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is -1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

5月29日稍晚时，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特证实两人已经会面。她补充说："总统确实说过，他认为美联储主席 不降低利率是一个错误。" 自开启第二任期以来，特朗普多次公开施压鲍威尔，要求美联储降息，并表示自己有能力"罢免"鲍威尔。不 过，在引发金融市场大震荡后，特朗普又转而表示自己"无意"罢免鲍威尔。 特朗普会见鲍威尔 美联储5月29日在其官网发布声明称，应美国总统特朗普邀请，美联储主席鲍威尔当天赴白宫与特朗普会面， 讨论包括增长、就业和通胀在内的经济发展问题。 特朗普与鲍威尔会面了！ 当地时间5月29日，美联储发布声明表示，美联储主席鲍威尔当日在白宫与特朗普会面，讨论包括增长、就业 和通胀在内的经济发展问题。美联储称，鲍威尔并未讨论他对货币政策的预期。 声明称，鲍威尔并未讨论他对货币政策的预期，只是强调政策路径将完全取决于即将发布的经济信息及其对经 济前景的影响。 鲍威尔还向特朗普表示，他与美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的同事将依法制定货币政策，以支 持最大就业和物价稳定，并将完全基于审慎、客观和非政治性的分析作出政策决定。 当天晚些时候，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特证实两人已经会面。莱维特表示，白宫及总统 ...

Key Points - The focus for financial data and events on May 30, 2025, includes various economic indicators from the US, Japan, Switzerland, and Canada [1][3] - Key US economic data to be released includes the Core PCE Price Index year-on-year and month-on-month, personal spending month-on-month, and the Chicago PMI for May [1] - Japan's unemployment rate for April and Switzerland's KOF Economic Leading Indicator for May are also significant data points to monitor [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.81%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed flat [1] - The core logic is that in the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump trade - wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the US trade court ruled to block Trump's global tariffs, reducing the risk - aversion sentiment. The US has completely left the top - tier AAA credit rating club, and the 20 - year new bonds have been cold. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, the Fed meeting minutes show that the Fed admits that inflation and unemployment may rise simultaneously and will face a difficult choice. US business equipment spending has recorded the largest decline in six months, and tariff uncertainties linger. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and weak [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index has rebounded with fluctuations, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate weakly in the medium term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF have re - increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Price Data**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3312.40 per ounce, up $12.70 (0.38%) from the previous day and up $19.80 (0.60%) from last week; London gold was at $3300.85 per ounce, up $4.15 (0.13%) from the previous day and up $39.30 (1.20%) from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 764.32 yuan per gram, down 7.96 yuan (-1.03%) from the previous day and down 15.78 yuan (-2.02%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 762.49 yuan per gram, down 6.40 yuan (-0.83%) from the previous day and down 15.28 yuan (-1.96%) from last week [2] - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold positions were 448,000 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 0.98% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions were 195,076 lots (1 kg per lot), down 2.00% from the previous day and down 12.93% from last week; Gold TD positions were 216,784 lots (1 kg per lot), up 0.81% from the previous day and up 0.15% from last week; LBMA inventory was 8,536 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,207 tons, up 0.05% from last week; Shanghai Gold inventory was 17 tons, up 0.05% from last week [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai Gold by SHFE members are led by CFC Futures with 29,986 lots, and the top 10 net - short positions are led by Jinrui Futures with 5,365 lots [3] 3.2 Silver - **Price Data**: Comex silver main contract closed at $33.10 per ounce, down $0.29 (-0.87%) from the previous day and down $0.16 (-0.50%) from last week; London silver was at $33.29 per ounce, up $0.38 (1.17%) from the previous day and up $0.78 (2.42%) from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 8,224 yuan per kilogram, down 1 yuan (-0.01%) from the previous day and down 77 yuan (-0.93%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 8,202 yuan per kilogram, down 9 yuan (-0.11%) from the previous day and down 66 yuan (-0.80%) from last week [5] - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver positions were 141,451 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), up 2.31% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions were 5,183,925 lots (1 kg per lot), down 1.34% from the previous day and down 10.00% from last week; Silver TD positions were 3,389,800 lots (1 kg per lot), up 0.78% from the previous day and down 1.47% from last week; The total visible inventory was 40,715 tons, up 0.08% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai Silver by SHFE members are led by Guotai Junan with 45,469 lots, and the top 10 net - short positions are led by Jinrui Futures with 13,935 lots [6] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $674.0008 billion, down $2.4409 billion (-0.00%) from the previous value [7] - **Macroeconomic Data**: M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.63%, down 1.87% from the previous day and down 2.59% from last week; the US dollar index is 99.87, up 0.30% from the previous day and up 0.26% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.39, down 9.30% from the previous day and down 7.14% from last week [7] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.30%, down 0.10 from the previous value; core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, unchanged; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.29%, down 0.39 from the previous value; core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.65%, down 0.32 from the previous value [9] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 1.90%, down 1.00 from the previous value; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is - 0.30%, down 2.70 from the previous value; the unemployment rate is 4.20%, unchanged [9] - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves: China has 2,294.50 tons, up 0.22% from the previous value; the US has 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world has 36,250.15 tons, unchanged; the geopolitical risk index is 192.40, up 87.57% from the previous value; the VIX index is 18.11, down 6.21% from the previous day and down 10.70% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 293.26, down 0.51% from the previous day and down 1.02% from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1971, down 0.04% from the previous value [9][11] 3.4 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2]

周三，美国一家贸易法院裁定特朗普的大部分关税将不会生效，这一全面裁决表明总统越权了。经济学 家表示，这一裁决虽然带来了一定的缓解，但又给经济状况增添了另一层不确定性。 此前美国银行研究所报告显示，2月至4月期间，领取失业救济的高收入家庭数量同比大幅增加，4月中 低收入家庭申领人数同比亦显著上升。经济学家预计，受季节性波动数据调整难度影响，6月初请人数 可能突破今年20.5万至24.3万的区间，但这一趋势与近年相似，未必反映劳动力市场状况的实质性转 变。 美联储今晨的会议纪要显示，尽管决策者认为劳动力市场总体平衡，但"评估认为未来几个月劳动力市 场存在走弱风险"，并指出就业前景"存在相当大的不确定性"，其结果"在很大程度上取决于贸易政策及 其他政府政策的演变"。 智通财经APP获悉，美国至5月24日当周初请失业金人数 24万人，预期23万人，前值由22.7万人修正为 22.6万人。美国至5月17日当周续请失业金人数 191.9万人，预期189.4万人，前值由190.3万人修正为 189.3万人。 续请失业金人数数据与非农就业报告调查周相关，且刚刚创下周期新高，这可能导致失业率上升。续请 失业金人数涵盖了政府为计 ...

Core Insights - The initial jobless claims data indicates a stable labor market, alleviating concerns about immediate economic distress [1] - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits has reached a new cycle high, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate [1] Labor Market Analysis - The ongoing rise in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits suggests a potential upward trend in the unemployment rate [1] - The data on continuing claims is closely related to the non-farm payroll survey week, highlighting its significance in labor market assessments [1]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Policy - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that President Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded legal authority, emphasizing that the Constitution grants Congress exclusive power over foreign trade [1] - The ruling indicates a potential shift in trade policy and could impact future tariff decisions and international trade relations [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed that most policymakers acknowledged facing "difficult trade-offs" in the coming months, with concerns about rising inflation and unemployment [3] - There are warnings about increasing recession risks and the need to monitor recent volatility in the bond market, which could pose risks to financial stability [3] - Changes in the dollar's safe-haven status and rising U.S. Treasury yields may have long-term economic implications [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - International gold prices have seen a significant decline, breaking the key support level of 3280 and reaching around 3245, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The daily chart shows a four-day consecutive decline, with MACD indicators suggesting a potential shift to a bearish trend if it falls below the zero line [4] - Short-term trading strategies suggest selling on rallies around the 3282-93 range, with support targets set at 3260-3250 and further down to 3209 if broken [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenging trade-off between rising inflation and increasing unemployment, indicating a cautious approach to policy adjustments in the coming months [1][5]. Economic Conditions - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace, despite fluctuations in net exports [3]. - The unemployment rate has stabilized at low levels, and the labor market remains strong, although inflation rates have been rising [3]. - Inflation has eased since its peak in 2022 but remains a concern, with risks of acceleration due to new trade barriers [3][4]. Inflation Concerns - Participants in the meeting expressed concerns that inflation could be more persistent than expected, with some companies potentially using the price environment to raise prices [3][4]. - There is a risk of upward pressure on prices, which could contribute to inflation [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is currently viewed as "roughly balanced," with low layoffs, but some companies are beginning to limit or pause hiring due to increasing uncertainty [3][4]. - Officials have downplayed the labor market's role as a primary driver of inflation [4]. Financial Market Volatility - There has been increased volatility across asset classes, with unusual patterns observed, such as falling stock prices alongside rising long-term Treasury yields and a depreciating dollar [4]. - This divergence may indicate deeper shifts that could have long-term economic implications [4]. Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve may face difficult decisions if inflation proves to be more persistent while growth and employment prospects weaken [5]. - A cautious approach is deemed appropriate until the impacts of government policy changes on the economy become clearer [5]. Future Projections - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for June 17-18, where new forecasts for inflation, employment, and economic growth will be presented [7]. - Current expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain policy rates in June and July but may consider rate cuts in September and December [7]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a preferred inflation measure, is anticipated to remain stable, complicating the Fed's decision-making on interest rates [7].