知情人士说，这位财政部长表示，在他们处理贸易公告时，他建议特朗普要有耐心。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在爱达荷州太阳谷对一屋子亿万富翁表示，美国总统特朗普与他的前老板 乔治·索罗斯有一个共同的性格特点：他们在进行高风险交易时都缺乏耐心。 贝森特周三在被称为"亿万富翁夏令营"的安伦公司（Allen & Co.）年度会议上发表了讲话。据在场人士 称，当被主持人要求比较他现任和前任老板时，贝森特表示，特朗普和索罗斯在性情、要求和不耐烦方 面都很相似。 贝森特定于下周前往日本，尽管财政部表示贸易问题不会在他访问期间被提及。预计他还将很快与中国 官员以及印度尼西亚的经济事务协调部长会面。 贝森特还对前白宫顾问、特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克进行了几次嘲讽，据报道他与马斯克曾发生冲突。 一位知情人士说，当被问及马斯克组建政党一事时，贝森特反问道："什么党？"然后他打趣说，马斯克 可能可以在火星上获得选票，这指的是马斯克希望通过其太空公司SpaceX将人类送上火星的雄心。 知情人士说，贝森特称赞特朗普有识别问题和找到解决方案的独特能力，但表示他在执行方面有时可能 会没有耐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for interest rate cuts may exceed expectations, and after fluctuations, gold prices are anticipated to rise again [1][6]. Market Performance - On July 10, international gold prices rebounded, closing up 0.32% after fluctuating between a high of $3330.16 and a low of $3310.15 [1]. - The dollar index experienced a rise but faced resistance at the mid-line, limiting the downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Economic Indicators - Some Federal Reserve officials indicated that inflation impacts are not yet visible, suggesting a delay until next year, which has pressured gold prices [3]. - However, the possibility of two interest rate cuts this year, as mentioned by Fed's Daly, has supported gold prices [5]. Future Projections - Economic growth consensus for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down from 2.2% to 1.5%, indicating a potential for more aggressive monetary easing by the Fed in the future [6]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts next year could lead to significant increases in gold prices, similar to or exceeding the gains seen in the past two years [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a potential top formation for gold prices, with risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 unless the price remains above the May moving average [8]. - Daily charts show that while gold prices have been fluctuating downwards, they remain above the support of the weekly ascending channel, suggesting a possible upcoming rebound [10]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading points for gold include support levels at $3313 or $3304 and resistance levels at $3334 or $3344 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $36.95 or $36.75, with resistance at $37.30 or $37.60 [10].

Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - The US announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting August 1, prompting Brazilian President Lula to seek negotiations with the US and consider retaliatory measures if negotiations fail [1] - Lula emphasized that Brazil can survive without trading in US dollars and suggested that Trump should address tariff issues at the G20 [1] - The US Treasury Secretary hinted at the need for patience in trade discussions, comparing Trump's temperament to that of George Soros [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Major US stock indices reached new highs, with the Nasdaq up 0.09%, S&P 500 up 0.27%, and Dow Jones up 0.43% [1][3] - Nvidia's stock rose 47% since the announcement of tariffs, reflecting strong performance in the tech sector [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 0.90%, with Alibaba rising over 2% and Netease dropping over 2% [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 were reported at 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 [14] - The US Treasury yields showed slight changes, with the 10-year yield at 4.351% [5] - The dollar index increased by 0.10%, indicating a slight strengthening of the US dollar [5] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Tesla's stock rose by 4.73%, while AMD increased by 4.15% [2] - TSMC reported a 26.9% year-on-year increase in sales for June, with total sales for the first half of the year up 40% [11] - BYD announced its advanced parking assistance technology, claiming it can achieve L4-level autonomous parking [12]

Group 1 - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly believes that there may be two interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be smaller than expected [1] - Some companies are negotiating to share tariff costs, which reduces the burden on consumers, leading to a lower need to pass on costs [1] - The Fed's June meeting minutes revealed a divergence among officials regarding the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation, with some expecting a one-time price increase while others foresee lasting effects [1][2] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that the effects of tariffs on prices may become more apparent in data from June to September [2] - Musalem emphasized that it is still too early to determine whether the inflation effects from tariffs will be temporary or persistent [2] - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on July 29-30, with investors currently expecting a rate cut in September based on futures contracts [3]

Market Performance - S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs despite tariff concerns, with Tesla's stock rising by 4.7% due to the expansion of its Robotaxi business [1] - Nvidia achieved a three-day streak of record highs, increasing its market capitalization to $4 trillion [1] - MP Materials, a rare earth mining company, saw its stock surge nearly 51% [1] - Delta Airlines regained its profit guidance for the year, resulting in a 12% stock increase [1] Tariff Developments - Myanmar is negotiating with Trump for potential zero tariffs on exports to the U.S. before the August deadline [1] - Brazilian President announced plans to negotiate tariffs with the U.S., threatening reciprocal measures if negotiations fail [1] - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, prompting traders to expedite shipments to Hawaii [1] - HSBC indicated that the August 1 tariff could be a turning point for copper prices in Shanghai and London [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Trump urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates quickly, praising Nvidia's stock performance [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July and supported continued balance sheet reduction [1] - There are differing opinions within the Federal Reserve regarding the lasting impact of tariffs on inflation, with some expecting effects to persist into next year [1] Industry Developments - OPEC+ is reportedly discussing a pause in production increases starting in October [1] - OpenAI released its first "open weights" model in six years, potentially challenging Microsoft's exclusive agreement [1] - Grok 4 was officially launched, boasting the strongest computational training capabilities to compete with GPT-5 and Claude 4 Opus [1] - Ant Group plans to introduce Circle stablecoin and is considering applying for licenses in multiple regions [1] - U.S. rare earth stocks surged in pre-market trading, with MP Materials receiving investment from the Pentagon for factory expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market continues to rise, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new closing highs, driven by positive earnings forecasts from Delta Air Lines and Nvidia's market cap milestone [1][3]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 192.34 points to 44,650.64, an increase of 0.43%; the S&P 500 increased by 0.27% to 6,280.46; and the Nasdaq slightly rose by 0.09% to 20,630.66, marking the eighth new closing high for the S&P 500 this year [1]. - Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, nine sectors saw gains, while communication services and technology sectors experienced slight declines of 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively [2]. Company Highlights - Nvidia's stock rose by 0.7%, with its market cap surpassing $4 trillion for the first time [3]. - Tesla's stock surged by 4.7% as the company announced its annual shareholder meeting for November [3]. - Delta Air Lines' stock jumped by 12% after reporting Q2 earnings of $2.10 per share, exceeding analyst expectations of $2.06, and revenue of $15.51 billion, slightly above market forecasts [6][7]. - The airline sector performed strongly, with United Airlines and American Airlines rising by 14.3% and 12.7%, respectively [8]. - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.90%. Alibaba increased by over 2%, while Netease fell by over 2% [5]. Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 227,000, the lowest in seven weeks, better than the expected 235,000, indicating a strong labor market [9]. - Financial analysts noted that Delta's optimistic guidance and the favorable jobless claims data boosted market risk appetite [9]. - Recent uncertainties have eased, with significant legislative progress and clearer tariff issues contributing to market stability [9]. Commodity Market - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by 2.65% to $66.57 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures falling by 2.21% to $68.64 [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish Bias) [1] Report's Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with positive factors such as the expected meeting between the US Commerce Secretary and Chinese officials, the extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period in the US, strong US non - farm payroll data in June, expected Fed rate cuts in September and acceleration in 2026, expansion in manufacturing PMIs in the US and China, measures to boost corporate performance in China, multiple rate cuts by the European Central Bank, military expansion and industrial recovery in Germany [1] Summary by Related Information Important News - US President Trump issued a second wave of tariff letters to eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazil being the highest since the new reciprocal tariffs were announced [1] - The US stock market rebounded strongly led by technology stocks, but the Fear and Greed Index signaled "extreme greed", indicating high market risk sentiment [1] - Morgan Stanley expects no rate cuts in 2025 due to inflation risks and tariffs, while Citi expects a rate - cut cycle to start in September and continue until the policy rate drops to 3 - 3.25% [1] - Baillie Gifford believes the prospects of Chinese tech giants depend more on domestic consumer sentiment than tariff policies, as US - bound exports are less than one - tenth of China's retail sales [1] - The US Treasury auctioned $39 billion of 10 - year Treasury bonds with a winning yield of 4.362%, lower than 4.421% in June [1] - Goldman Sachs found that the probability of the US dollar depreciating when the US stock market falls is more than twice as high as in the past decade, due to factors like US policy uncertainty, global diversified investment, and fiscal risks [1] - Brazilian President Lula called an emergency meeting and warned of a response to any unilateral tariff hikes based on Brazil's economic reciprocity law [1] Global Economic Logic - The US Commerce Secretary is expected to meet Chinese officials in early August, and the US extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1st [1] - US non - farm payroll data in June was significantly better than expected, and the market anticipates Fed rate cuts in September and acceleration in 2026 [1] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand, and China's PMI production index continued to expand while the new order index resumed expansion [1] - China's comprehensive rectification of cut - throat competition is expected to boost listed company performance [1] - The European Central Bank has cut rates 8 times, Germany is expanding its military by 30%, and German industry shows signs of recovery with a 1.2% month - on - month increase in industrial output in May [1]

金十数据7月11日讯，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，她仍认为今年可能会有两次降息，并指出关税对价格 的影响较预期更为温和的可能性正在上升。戴利透露，部分企业正在协商分摊关税成本，从而减少转嫁 给终端消费者的比例。她表示，美国经济状况良好，经济增长和消费者支出正在放缓，但还没有减弱。 通胀正朝着美联储2%的目标迈进。"我认为可能会出现两次降息，但每个人的预期都存在不确定性，考 虑在秋季实施降息"， 戴利表示。 美联储戴利：预计2025年将降息两次 关税影响或弱于预期 ...

美联储戴利：考虑在秋季实施降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly suggests that a weak labor market may lead to interest rate cuts, but inflation concerns could steer policy in a different direction [1] Group 1 - The actual labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates [1] - Inflation remains a significant issue that could counterbalance the potential for rate cuts, indicating a complex policy environment [1]