Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Inflation drives the continuous rise in yields, but it should be based on the premise that real economic growth is not significantly affected. The domestic bond market is under pressure this week, and the reasons may be the unfulfilled market expectation of interest rate cuts and the inflation rebound indicated by price indicators. It is necessary to observe the feedback of real growth indicators on the price rebound [2]. - Three important Fed officials expressed a dovish attitude towards a December rate cut this week. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the key level of 4.0% again. In the early stage of the Fed's rate cut cycle, this is an important threshold for the US Treasury yield. Although the medium - term outlook for the decline in US Treasury yields is positive, due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the 10 - year US Treasury yield may rebound above 4% even if it falls below this level in the near term [2]. - The consumer season in the US has started. If US residents' consumption remains strong, it may affect the decline in inflation in November and December [2]. Summary by Directory Inflation and Bond Market Pressure - **Domestic Bond Market Pressure**: The domestic bond market is under pressure this week. The 10 - year yield of China Treasury bonds exceeded 1.85% on Thursday for the first time since October this year but fell back on Friday. The market's unfulfilled expectation of interest rate cuts and the inflation rebound indicated by price indicators may be the reasons. Widespread policy rate cuts are not an urgently needed tool at present, and the continuous rise in yields driven by inflation should be based on the premise that real economic growth is not significantly affected [2]. - **US Treasury at a Key Point**: Three Fed officials expressed a dovish attitude towards a December rate cut. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is approaching 4.0% again. In the 2007 rate cut cycle, the 10 - year US Treasury yield only remained stably below 4% after the federal funds rate dropped to a very low level. The US Treasury still faces the risk of fiscal imbalance, and changes in US tariff policies may impact the US fiscal balance in the short term. The consumer season in the US has started, and strong consumer demand may affect the decline in inflation in November and December. In the medium term, the outlook for the decline in US Treasury yields is positive, but there is a risk of rebound [2]. - **Production Material Price Index Rebound**: This week, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 23.72% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased by 1.23% week - on - week and 15.88% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.10% week - on - week and 3.92% year - on - year in the week of November 21. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.06% week - on - week; the South China Iron Ore Index increased by 0.85% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 1.57% week - on - week; the inventory index of rebar decreased by 3.77% week - on - week; the price index of rebar increased by 0.88% week - on - week; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills decreased by 1.34% week - on - week. The production material price index increased by 0.20% week - on - week and decreased by 2.72% year - on - year in the week of November 21. The average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.95% and 1.38% week - on - week respectively. The average daily trading volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities from November 1 - 25 this year was about 243,000 square meters per day, compared with about 390,000 square meters per day in November 2024 [2]. High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Comparison**: Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between domestic industrial added value and PPI year - on - year, the relationship between the 10 - year US Treasury yield and the federal funds rate, etc. [8][19] - **US and European Important High - Frequency Indicators**: Charts show indicators such as the US weekly economic indicators and real economic growth rate, the number of initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate in the US, etc. [89] - **Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data**: The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, with all seasonal trend indicators being month - on - month increases and the unit being %. [103] - **High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen**: The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are shown. [151]

Group 1 - The US stock market closed with a broad increase, providing global markets with renewed confidence to rise, characterized by a balanced increase that avoids excessive highs while encouraging further buying [2] - Gold and the US dollar experienced significant movements, with gold surpassing $4200 and the dollar dropping to a one-week low, creating space for global risk assets [2] - The surge in silver and copper reached record highs, with trading disruptions amplifying price volatility [2] Group 2 - The reasons supporting the market's rise are unclear, as the recovery of US stocks has led global markets to await guidance, resulting in a lack of direction and trading volume in other markets [2] - A significant "sentiment reversal" this week was driven by Google and the Federal Reserve, indicating that opposing AI and the Fed is unwise [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 10 is expected to be pivotal for both short-term and long-term financial market outcomes, with implications for the A-share market and potential currency fluctuations [4]

·西太平洋银行：澳大利亚三季度GDP增速超预期，内需创12年最强 ·三菱日联银行：美联储主席人选更迭强化降息预期，美元承压 ·Investinglive分析师指出，日本最新数据显示，东京11月核心CPI同比上涨2.8%，连续高于央行2%的通 胀目标，叠加工业产出超预期回升，正强化市场对日本央行在未来数月重启加息周期的预期。日元跌至 10个月低点，加剧进口和食品价格上行压力；而政府内部对加息时机存在分歧，首相高市早苗部分顾问 主张在消费疲软与三季度经济萎缩背景下暂缓行动。在通胀顽固、日元疲软及薪资增长可信度提升的三 重支撑下，日本央行政策委员会倾向更早收紧货币政策。市场普遍预计，加息窗口已打开，可能于12月 或2026年初落地。 ·野村证券报告指出，印度通胀持续温和，为央行在12月5日政策会议上降息打开窗口。该行将此次会议 降息25个基点的概率上调至65%，维持利率不变的概率为35%。报告称，当前通胀水平已低于印度央行 的中期预测，且未来价格涨幅有望进一步放缓。不过，鉴于GDP增长仍具韧性、银行存贷比高企及外汇 市场波动风险，央行也可能选择观望，以择机最大化政策效果。野村维持对印度终端利率5.00%的预 测，意 ...

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metal Futures - November 28, 2025 [1] Core Views Gold AU - Trade war and economic recession curb consumption demand for gold and silver jewelry; precious metal demand comes from sovereign funds' de-dollarization [2]. - US interest rate cuts, dollar depreciation, and lower yield curves support precious metals; domestic gold warehouse receipts rise, US gold warehouse receipts fall, and domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts drop sharply [2]. Silver AG - Similar to gold, trade war and economic recession impact jewelry consumption; demand from de - dollarization and interest - rate factors support prices; changes in warehouse receipts are the same as gold [4] Summary by Directory One - week Policy and Fundamental Review - Europe proposed a counter - proposal including US protection, Ukraine's non - military recovery of occupied territories, and conditions for Ukraine's NATO membership [9]. - Fed officials' views on interest rate cuts vary; some see room for cuts, others are cautious about December cuts but expect future cuts [9]. - US economic data shows mixed performance, with some indices at multi - month lows or highs, and private sector job losses [9]. - Trump administration prepares tariff backup plans; US may take new actions against Venezuela; and there are various international events such as Japan's economic stimulus and Italy's rating upgrade [9]. Gold Market Tracking - COMEX gold futures and options: long positions are 122,450, short positions are 35,978; ETF and other positions and their changes are also presented [10]. - Gold ETF total holdings, SPDR and iShares holdings, and changes in futures positions and warehouse receipts are tracked over time [10][11][13]. Silver Market Tracking - COMEX silver futures and options: long positions are 44,277, short positions are 27,801; ETF and other positions and their changes are shown [15]. - Silver ETF total holdings, SLV holdings, and changes in futures positions and warehouse receipts are tracked over time [15][16][18]. Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - Import gold and silver hedging profit margins are tracked over time, showing fluctuations [21]. Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - ICE dollar index non - commercial net long positions and total positions are tracked over time [23]. US Treasury Futures Position Tracking - Non - commercial net long positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury futures and options, as well as total positions, are tracked over time [26][27][28]. US Inflation Expectation - 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year break - even inflation rates are presented over a period [31]. US Real Interest Rate - 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury real yield curves are shown over a long - term period [33]. US Interest Rate Term Structure - US Treasury interest rates, real interest rates, and inflation expectations for different maturities are presented [35][36]. US and Major Non - US Countries' 2 - year Treasury Yield Spreads - Yield spreads between US 2 - year Treasury and those of UK, Japan, China, and Germany are tracked over time [38]

Group 1 - Chicago Mercantile Exchange experienced a trading halt due to a data center failure, disrupting various markets including stocks, forex, bonds, and commodities, causing widespread dissatisfaction among market participants [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw a pre-market rally, with Pinduoduo up 0.69%, JD.com up 1.29%, NIO up 1.46%, and Xpeng up 1.32% [1] - Technology stocks mostly rose in pre-market trading, with Micron Technology up 2%, Qualcomm up over 1%, and Google A up over 1% [1] Group 2 - Oracle is in talks with multiple banks for a new loan of up to $38 billion, aimed at expanding infrastructure for OpenAI, while Oracle's stock fell by 1.64% [1] - Apple has filed a lawsuit in the Delhi High Court against a potential $38 billion fine from India's antitrust agency, which is investigating complaints of "abuse" related to high commissions for in-app purchases, with Apple's stock rising by 0.34% [2] - TSMC has sued a former executive for allegedly stealing trade secrets and joining Intel, claiming the individual may have disclosed confidential information to Intel, while Intel denies the allegations [2] - JPMorgan predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, contradicting previous expectations of maintaining rates until January, following hints from key officials about earlier rate cuts [2]

Core Insights - The global economy is seeking a new balance amid trade easing and policy stimulus, with significant market rebounds observed in Q3 2025 driven by improved US-China trade relations, optimism in artificial intelligence, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][5]. Market Performance - Global stock markets saw a notable rebound in Q3 2025, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets, particularly in Asia, where China (+20.8%), Taiwan (+14.7%), South Korea (+12.8%), and Thailand (+17.6%) led the gains. In contrast, India experienced a decline of 6.6% due to valuation pressures and foreign capital outflows [5][6]. - The fixed income market showed volatility but overall upward movement, with US Treasury yields declining across the board, particularly the 10-year yield which fell by 8 basis points to 4.16%. Emerging market dollar bonds performed strongly, achieving a 4.8% increase [6][11]. - The commodity market saw significant gains in gold (+16.4%) and precious metals (+17.4%), while energy and agricultural sectors lagged [11]. Economic Outlook - Future months may see a slowdown in global economic growth, but policy stimulus is expected to drive a rebound in early 2026. The US economy may weaken due to stagnant job growth and rising tariff costs, although investments in new infrastructure and technology sectors provide some support [2][14]. - China's recent credit growth slowdown indicates a need for stronger domestic demand, but upcoming policy measures may inject new momentum into the economy. The government is expected to set a GDP growth target of at least 4.5% for the next year [15][34]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting rates, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in October and another in December. Other major central banks are anticipated to follow suit with easing measures [3][20]. - Asian countries are implementing new rounds of stimulus to counter economic pressures, with China expanding credit support, India reforming tax policies, and Indonesia providing cash transfers to households [32][33]. Inflation Trends - Inflation patterns are diverging globally, with the US expected to see a gradual rise in inflation to around 3.1%-3.2% due to tariff effects, while many Asian economies maintain lower inflation levels, allowing for more room for monetary easing [2][16]. - In China, inflation is projected to remain low, while Japan and India are managing inflation within target ranges through policy adjustments [16][34].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 12,635, with a recent increase of 2.95% to 12,695 per kilogram, reaching a high of 12,744 and a low of 12,384 during the session [1] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards a consolidation trend for silver futures, indicating potential volatility in the near term [1] - Analysts suggest that December interest rate cuts have become a mainstream expectation, significantly weakening the medium-term strength of the US dollar [2] Group 2 - The fourth quarter is typically a peak season for solar installations, which is a major source of silver demand [2] - Silver inventories in approved warehouses of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to a 10-year low, following record exports to London [2] - Concerns over potential import tariffs on silver by the Trump administration have led to increased exports to the US, impacting the silver supply in London [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the bullish trend in silver prices, with paper silver trading above 12.235, showing a 1.42% increase from the opening price of 12.095 [1] - The market is experiencing increased volatility due to the upcoming interest rate decisions, with over 85% probability of a rate cut in December, despite contrasting statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman [2] - The US dollar index remains stable at 99.56 but has seen a decline of over 0.6% this week, marking the largest weekly drop since July, which has contributed to the stabilization of silver prices [2] Group 2 - The daily chart indicates that paper silver is continuing to push towards higher levels, with a dominant bullish trend recovering from previous declines, and key resistance levels identified between 12.20 and 12.50, while support is seen between 11.50 and 12.00 [3]

Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 953.43 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.77% [1] - The highest price reached today is 954.41 yuan per gram, while the lowest was 944.71 yuan per gram, indicating a short-term bullish trend for paper gold [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut have increased, with the probability of a December rate cut now at 87%, up from 85% the previous day [2] - This expectation is influenced by comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly and Fed Governor Waller, who hinted at the possibility of easing policies [2] - However, there is no consensus within the Federal Reserve, as some regional Fed presidents argue against rate cuts until inflation stabilizes at the 2% target [2] - Former White House economic advisor Hassett is a leading candidate to replace Powell as Fed Chair, which adds uncertainty to future policy directions [2] - The dollar index is under pressure and is expected to record its largest weekly decline in four months, reflecting widespread expectations for further global monetary easing [2] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for paper gold are identified between 950 yuan per gram and 980 yuan per gram, while important support levels are between 940 yuan per gram and 960 yuan per gram [2]

（文章来源：新华财经） 三菱日联分析师Soojin Kim指出，随着以鸽派立场著称的白宫经济顾问哈塞特成为美联储主席的热门人 选，市场对降息的信心进一步增强。 ...