| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月5日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 317600 | 309300 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 200 | 250 | -50 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 318100 | 309800 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 133.00 | 92.00 | 41.00 | 44.57% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -17412.99 | -16070.31 | -1342.68 | -8.36% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 ...

12 636984 2601 1212 图 2：氧化铝期货日行情表 20251202 | 交割月份 | 前结算 | 今州區 | 图层(N | 图纸价 | 收盘价 | 程总容案例 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交領 | 持仓手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称:室化铝 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2512 | 2620 | 2622 | 2630 | 2602 | 2611 | 2613 | -9 | -7 | 195 | 1019.28 | 2565 | -195 | | 2601 | 2682 | 2687 | 2697 | 2661 | 2670 | 2677 | -12 | -5 | 177845 | 952423.86 | 358708 | -1212 | | 2602 | 2707 | 2710 | 2720 | 2690 | 2696 | 2704 | -11 | -3 | 26448 | 143057.8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the slow sales of US soybeans and the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the CBOT soybean futures price maintains a volatile adjustment trend. The decline in domestic soybean import costs weakens the oil mills' willingness to support the price of soybean meal. Coupled with the abundant supply of soybean sources and soybean meal in the spot market and the lack of significant increase in downstream demand, the market price of soybean meal may be under pressure. In the short - term, the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a volatile consolidation [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On December 2, 2025, the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract showed a narrow - range fluctuation. It opened at 3033 yuan/ton, reached a maximum of 3048 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3029 yuan/ton, and closed at 3045 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a reference increase of 0.03%. The daily trading volume was 494,360 lots, and the open interest was 1,164,957 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Price - On the same day, most of the prices of soybean meal futures contracts rose slightly. The total open interest of the variety contracts was 3,785,832 lots, an increase of 25,028 lots compared with the previous trading day [3]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Spot Quotation - On December 2, 2025, the spot quotations of soybean meal in some domestic regions fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, the price in Zhangjiagang was 3020 yuan/ton with no change, in Tianjin it was 3080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, in Rizhao it was 3020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Dongguan it was 3010 yuan/ton with no change [7][8]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of soybean meal remained unchanged. The total number of soybean meal warehouse receipts was 9,450 lots, the same as the previous day [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry Information - The import cost of soybeans declined. On December 2, the import cost of US soybeans was 4537 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous day, ending a three - day increase and falling from a more than one - week high. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3950 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3917 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The price of the soybean meal m2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a volatile consolidation in the short - term [13].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils between 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue narrowing in January. The long - position rebar and short - position iron ore arbitrage in the January contract can be held [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China remained at 3300 yuan/ton, while the 01 contract price increased by 11 yuan/ton to 3148 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3310 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets remained unchanged at 2990 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton to 3247 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.0 tons to 232.0 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decline of 3.1% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decline of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decline of 5.2% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.4 to 9.4, a rise of 4.5%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decline of 2.7% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The iron ore futures are expected to oscillate between 750 - 820 yuan/ton. Although the supply has increased and the demand has decreased, with the improvement of market expectations and the support of downstream restocking and basis repair, the price will not drop significantly [3]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt cost of various iron ore types decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás Fine decreased by 6.6 yuan/ton to 796.7 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.0 yuan/ton to - 41.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.8% [3]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of various iron ore types at Rizhao Port decreased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás Fine at Rizhao Port decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton to 877.0 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a decline of 4.2%, while the global shipment volume increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, a rise of 1.4% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, a rise of 1.1% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 27.3 tons to 15237.39 tons, a rise of 0.2%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7% [3]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The coke futures are expected to oscillate between 1550 - 1700 yuan/ton. The supply - demand relationship has weakened, but the futures have basically over - discounted the spot price cut expectations, and the downward space is limited. The 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage can be recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 01 contract price of coke increased by 27 yuan/ton to 1652 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, a rise of 1.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, a rise of 0.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly by 1.7 tons to 883.0 tons. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, a rise of 6.5% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.8 tons to - 2.5 tons, a rise of 74.2% [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The coking coal futures are expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1150 yuan/ton. The market is in a weak state, with supply and demand both showing certain changes, and the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage can be recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 01 contract price of coking coal increased by 21 yuan/ton to 1092 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%. The clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal is affected by the decline in pig iron output and the weakening of market restocking demand [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.6 tons to 107.6 tons, a rise of 9.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [5].

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 5 日星期五 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 早盘提示 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格上涨 5 元至 5450 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 5310 元/吨（环比-15），山东地区现货价格 5252 元/吨（环比+14）。持仓方面， 多头持仓增加 85 手至 1.6 万手，空头持仓增加 158 至 1.92 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，11 月国内纯苯产量 191.8 万吨，同比-0.93%。12 月计划内检修偏多。 | | | | | 10 月纯苯进口量 49.67 万吨，环比+14.1%。市场消息：华东某炼厂计划 1 月对 1000 | | | | | 万吨常减压以及一套重整检修，影响纯苯产能 60 万吨。 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (interpreted as a relatively clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Various chemical products in the industry are facing different market situations, with a mix of supply - demand imbalances, cost - driven factors, and inventory pressures. Some products are expected to have short - term fluctuations, while others have long - term supply - demand trends that need attention [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures contracts declined. Supply device restart expectations increased market caution. Propylene inventory was low, but real - deal premiums narrowed. PE faced fundamental pressure, and PP's supply support weakened due to restarting devices [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene was in a narrow - range shock, with high arrival expectations and falling downstream demand. However, future device maintenance may ease the downward pressure. Styrene's supply - demand structure improved, and it is expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices weakened slightly. PX may be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol has supply pressure and is expected to accumulate inventory. Short - fiber has a good long - term supply - demand pattern, while bottle - chip has long - term overcapacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures declined. The port inventory is expected to remain high, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Urea's upward drive is insufficient, with high daily production and overall loose supply - demand [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to accumulate inventory, and its price declined. Supply pressure may ease, but overall demand is weak. Caustic soda continued to decline, with high supply and insufficient demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was in shock, with high inventory and an overall oversupply pattern in the long term. Glass prices were weak, with low demand and the need for further cold - repair for upward drive [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On December 4, the coke主力合约 closed at 1,651.5 yuan/ton, up 1.69% intraday. The position of the主力 contract was 27,065 lots at the close, a decrease of 2,216 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased by 2.99% week - on - week, while that of Qingdao Port remained flat. Coke daily output increased, but the daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills decreased, and the steel mill profitability rate dropped to 35.06%. In December, there is still uncertainty in coking coal supply, and the Politburo meeting may bring macro - level benefits, which creates resistance to further decline of coke futures. The main contract rebounded slightly at the lower edge of the trading range [6][37]. - On December 4, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 1,091.5 points, up 1.11% intraday. The position of the main contract was 350,729 lots at the close, a decrease of 41,446 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 6.3% week - on - week. In November, coking coal production increased, and imports accelerated, resulting in insufficient supply - side support and a weakening market sentiment. However, considering the December Politburo economic meeting and the end - of - year coal mine production reduction expectation, there is resistance to further decline of coking coal futures. The focus remains on coal mine production [7][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - From January to October this year, global new ship order volume was 1,632 vessels and 94.87 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decline of 44.5%. It is expected that the average annual demand in the global shipbuilding market during the 15th Five - Year Plan period will be about 110 million deadweight tons and 42 million compensated gross tons, a decrease of about 20% compared with the average of the 14th Five - Year Plan period but still about 50% higher than that of the 13th Five - Year Plan period [9]. - On December 4, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur primary coking coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,500 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - first - class Coke (Flat - price) | 1,620 yuan/ton | - 2.99% | - 2.99% | - 4.14% | - 9.50% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - first - class Coke (Out - of - warehouse) | 1,450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 13.17% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 6.25% | - 6.25% | 1.69% | - 9.77% | | Jingtang Port Australian - produced Coking Coal | 1,570 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.37% | - 1.26% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced Coking Coal | 1,650 yuan/ton | - 3.51% | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,651.5 | 1.69% | 1,667.5 | 1,615.0 | 196,462 | 2,295 | 27,065 | - 2,216 | | Coking Coal | | 1,091.5 | 1.11% | 1,096.5 | 1,059.5 | 337,231 | - 85,112 | 350,729 | - 41,446 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mine mouths, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and full - sample independent coking plants from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [29][30][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke is similar to the core view, with the main contract rebounding slightly due to supply uncertainty and potential macro - level benefits, and attention should be paid to coal mine production [37]. - The outlook for coking coal is also in line with the core view, with resistance to further decline due to the Politburo meeting and end - of - year production reduction expectation, and the key lies in coal mine production [38].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The PTA market is expected to continue to fluctuate with the cost side in the short - term. Supply reduction is significant recently, but previously shut - down capacities will gradually restart, leading to a shift to inventory accumulation. The cancellation of export restrictions by India boosts exports, while downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally weaken [3]. - MEG: Under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction, MEG may oscillate at a low level. It is continuously accumulating inventory, though the accumulation rate has decreased. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, and an Iranian plant has shut down [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Performance**: On December 04, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.34%, and the basis weakened to - 37 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4685 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fluctuated around $63. OPEC + decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.92 days, a 0.14 - day increase from the previous week [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: Short - side main forces increased their positions [3]. MEG - **Market Performance**: On December 04, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 0.41%, and the basis weakened to - 8 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fluctuated around $63. The production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly MEG port inventory in East China totaled 71.9 tons, a 1.1 - ton increase from the previous week [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: There was a divergence between long - side and short - side main forces [4].

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/12/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | 1585.000 | 51.0↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1090.1 | +11.60↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 +37.90↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 494.90 | | 329.90 | +44.30↑ | | EC合约基差 | -200.62↓ | -101.35 | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 34222 | -786↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -155.72↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1483.65 | | 948.77 | -159.08↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 9.57↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1403.13 | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） -0.99 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 土泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月4日 | | 原田 | | 现价 江苏一级 8620 8620 0 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8286 8288 -2 -0.02% | | 墓差 Y2601 334 332 2 0.60% | | 江苏1月 01+260 01+270 现货基差报价 -10 | | 8619 | | 棕榈油 | | 12月3日 12月2日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 8720 8620 现价 广东24度 100 1.16% | | 8720 0.11% 期价 P2601 8730 10 | | 基差 P2601 -10 -100 90 90.00% | | 现货基差报价 广东1月 01+50 01+0 50 ត | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1月 9195.1 9091.7 103.4 1.14% | | 盘面进口利润 -372 -93 -25.14% 广州港1月 -465 | | 仓单 352 355 0.00% 0 | | 菜籽油 | | 现价 江苏三级 10050 10080 ...