1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The price of Shanghai nickel futures has recently been affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 126,700 yuan/ton and closed at 125,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.86% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 785,240 (+168,241) lots, and the open interest was 131,413 (-5,234) lots. The main contract showed a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend, with an intraday amplitude of 4.4%. In the afternoon, it was driven by a sharp correction in precious metals and quickly declined [1] - The nickel ore market was relatively calm, with prices remaining stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited. Mines had a bullish expectation. There was a certain price difference in the market. Shipping efficiency was delayed due to increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron mills were eager to stock up in advance, and the mentality of suppressing raw material nickel ore prices might slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 (Phase II) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Traders were expected to start purchasing after New Year's Day. The spot premiums of refined nickel of each brand were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 7,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,510 (983) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,696 (1,092) tons [2] Strategy - The price of Shanghai nickel is easily affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Consider high - selling and low - buying in the range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan. For trading strategies, focus on range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,875 (+40,115) lots, and the open interest was 84,501 (-4,171) lots. The main contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend. However, due to weaker fundamentals, the overall trend was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel [3] - The upward momentum of the futures market has slowed down. Although the spot price has risen compared with the previous period, in the context of the year - end off - season, downstream demand remained weak, and there was a lack of further stimulating factors in the news. The spot price remained stable overall. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction process of stainless steel plants and the winter stocking situation of downstream enterprises. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 145 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.50 yuan/nickel point to 910.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Some macro - level positive factors have been realized, and inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. However, downstream demand is weak in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel. For trading strategies, take a neutral stance on single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Cost side: There is more consensus on the details of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, oil prices have retreated again, and geopolitical news is fluctuating. In Q1 next year, there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices [1] - PX: PXN reached $377/ton last last trading day (a $16.00/ton increase from the previous period). PX plants at home and abroad are operating stably. With the current abundant MX supply, PX production can be effectively maintained even if some plants have fluctuations in reformer operations. Recently, PXN has risen significantly to a seasonal high. With the improvement in profitability, there are more restart plans overseas, and more imports are expected due to arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets. There are many PX maintenance plans in Q2 next year, and the long - term outlook is still positive. However, the blending - into - gasoline market shows no obvious improvement, and the risks of increasing supply and declining polyester demand are gradually emerging [1] - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is -63 yuan/ton (a 2 yuan/ton increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 346 yuan/ton (a 32 yuan/ton increase from the previous period), and the processing fee of the main contract on the futures market is 336 yuan/ton (a 13 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). There are many PTA maintenance plans in the near term. Although the polyester load has decreased, the overall production cut is less than expected. The PTA balance sheet shows inventory reduction in December, and the inventory build - up pressure in January is acceptable. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity expansion ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [2] - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 90.4% (a 0.7% decrease from the previous period), and the weaving load continues to decline. Since the end of November, domestic orders have weakened rapidly, and坯布 inventory has started to accumulate rapidly. Although there are some samples for spring - summer orders next year or foreign trade orders, there are no large - scale orders yet. Due to the rise in raw material prices, there was restocking this week, and filament inventory has dropped to a low level [3] - Strategy: For single - side trading, be cautious about the risk of capital reduction and price retreat. Pay attention to the capital flow and the change in downstream polyester load for PX; for TA, pay attention to the possibility of plant restart with the improvement of processing fees; for PF, the processing fee is under pressure; for PR, the short - term polyester bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][23] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [29][32][36] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate [49][51][58] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][74][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [93][98][99]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas refined oil crack spreads remain weak, and the blending logic has limited support for aromatics. The price difference between US and South Korea for pure benzene may gradually peak [3] - The arrival of pure benzene in China has increased, and the downstream提货 is weaker during the off - season. The port inventory continues to accumulate rapidly to a high level [3] - The start - up rates of styrene and aniline have slightly increased from the bottom, the start - up of CPL remains at a low level compared to the same period, while the start - up rates of phenol and adipic acid are acceptable. With the low processing fee of pure benzene, the domestic start - up rate of pure benzene is still low [3] - The styrene port inventory changed little at the beginning of the week, and the original inventory accumulation cycle was postponed. On one hand, it was due to the short - term maintenance of Bohua, and on the other hand, it was boosted by the previous styrene export orders. The downstream提货 during the off - season is still average. The downstream start - up rate has a slight rebound. The start - up rate of EPS has a slight increase during the off - season, the start - up of PS has increased again after the inventory decline, and the start - up of ABS continues to be at a low level due to continuous inventory pressure [3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures 1 - 4 show the basis and inter - period spreads of pure benzene, including the relationship between the main pure benzene basis and the main pure benzene futures contract price, the main pure benzene contract basis, the pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the pure benzene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread [8][13] - Figures 5 - 7 show the basis and inter - period spreads of styrene, including the relationship between the main styrene basis and the main styrene contract, the EB main contract basis, and the styrene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread [14][15] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures 8 - 9 show the processing fees of naphtha and the price difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan [23] - Figures 10 - 17 show the production profits of styrene non - integrated plants and the price differences between different regions of pure benzene and styrene, including the price differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, and similar price differences for styrene, as well as the import profits of pure benzene and styrene [25][30][34][40] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Start - up Rates - Figures 18 - 19 show the inventory in East China ports and the start - up rate of pure benzene [42] - Figures 20 - 23 show the inventory (including port, commercial, and factory inventory) and the start - up rate of styrene in East China [45][47] IV. Styrene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures 24 - 29 show the start - up rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS, which are downstream products of styrene [55][57][58] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures 30 - 37 show the start - up rates and production profits of pure benzene downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid [65][67][86] - Figures 38 - 44 show the production profits of other related downstream products such as PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [78][88][89] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy is provided [4] - Basis and inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high [4] - Cross - variety: Short BZ2603 and long EB2602, short BZ2603 and long PX2605 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of soda ash is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger next week. The new production capacity of soda ash will be concentrated at the end of the year, which will put pressure on next year. Although the demand side is weak, with the shift of positions, the price is expected to stabilize. [16] - The price of glass is also expected to be volatile and slightly stronger next week. The fundamentals of glass are still weak, but the downward price space is limited after the shift of positions. The supply - side contraction before the Spring Festival will determine the winter storage intensity. [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash output was 721,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons (-1.9%). The daily output was about 101,000 - 104,000 tons. The supply decreased due to the production reduction of some plants and increased slightly in Sichuan Hebang. The overall start - up rate decreased. [8] - The theoretical profit of the soda ash joint - alkali method in China was -41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was -66.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. [8] 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 716,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.3%. The apparent demand for heavy soda was 409,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%), and that for light soda was 307,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15%). [11] - The daily output of float glass was 155,000 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 88,700 tons, both remaining stable week - on - week. The futures price continued to fall this week, and the mid - stream shipments decreased significantly. [11] 3.1.3 Inventory - The upstream soda ash factory inventory increased to 1.499 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons. Among them, the heavy soda inventory decreased by 19,000 tons, and the light soda inventory increased by 24,000 tons. [15] - The mid - stream inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 10.8% to 450,000 tons. The downstream float glass enterprise soda ash inventory increased slightly. [13][15] 3.1.4 Price Forecast - It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable after the shift of positions and show a volatile and slightly stronger trend next week. For unilateral trading, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see. [16] 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - The daily output of float glass was 155,000 tons, and there were currently 218 operating production lines. The weekly average profit of float glass with different fuels varied. There are still cold - repair production lines to be implemented this month, and it is expected that the daily melting volume of glass will drop to about 150,000 tons to achieve supply - demand balance. [19] 3.2.2 Demand - The demand side is still weak. The orders of sample processing enterprises decreased week - on - week. The enthusiasm for purchasing goods was still limited due to factors such as tight funds. The industry inventory increased slightly. [22] - As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.7 days, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. [22] 3.2.3 Price Forecast - This week, the glass shifted positions to the 05 contract, and the futures price stopped falling and stabilized. After the shift of positions, considering future expectations and supply reduction, the downward price space is limited. It is expected that the price will be volatile and slightly stronger next week. For unilateral trading, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see. [23] 3.3 Other Related Data 3.3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Price Data - The spot and futures prices of soda ash and glass, as well as the basis and price spreads, are provided in detail, showing the price changes in different periods. [27][129] 3.3.2 Production and Consumption Structure Data - The production and consumption structures of soda ash and glass in different years are presented, including production capacity, output, and consumption distribution. [62][123][139][171] 3.3.3 Related Industry Data - Data on the production, import and export, and demand of related industries such as photovoltaic glass, light - alkali demand industries (carbonate lithium, etc.), and some beverage industries are provided. [217][225][237][244]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term supply and demand of propylene are slightly tightened, and the futures price is in a range - bound consolidation. The supply pattern remains loose, but the supply pressure in the main regions has eased. The demand recovery is limited due to cost pressure. The cost support has increased recently, and the short - term rebound height may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the shutdown of PDH units [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure The report presents data on the propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, Shandong basis, contract spreads (PL01 - 03, PL03 - 05), and market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China, with data sources from Tonghuashun and Steel Union, and the research institute of Huatai Futures [1][5][7]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate It includes information on propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, production margins of PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking of propylene, as well as capacity utilization rates of PDH, methanol - to - olefins, and crude oil refineries. The data sources are mainly from Steel Union and the research institute of Huatai Futures [21][24][31]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate It shows the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone. The data sources are from Steel Union and the research institute of Huatai Futures [37][38][39]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory The report provides data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory, with data sources from Steel Union and the research institute of Huatai Futures [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Consumption of electrolytic aluminum is shifting from peak season to off - season, with spot discounts widening, and social inventory rising due to increased arrivals. High - frequency fundamental data restricts the upside of aluminum prices. In the long run, overseas power costs may lead to potential sudden production cuts, and with the expectation of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in China, the decline in aluminum prices is limited. Consider the arbitrage between SHFE aluminum and aluminum alloy [6]. - After the absolute price of alumina rises, it's difficult to ship old warehouse receipts in Xinjiang, and the regular tender procurement of electrolytic aluminum plants has stopped. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the long - term supply of ore is sufficient, so the ore price may be under long - term pressure. The pattern of oversupply is hard to change, and social inventory will continue to increase. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is sufficient, and the winter storage expectation is low [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminum Spot - On December 29, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 22,490 yuan/ton, a change of 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 200 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 22,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed - 30 yuan/ton to - 390 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 22,410 yuan/ton, a change of 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount changed - 10 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On December 29, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 22,350 yuan/ton, closed at 22,570 yuan/ton, a change of 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 22,980 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,110 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 618,625 lots, and the open interest was 289,255 lots [2]. Inventory - As of December 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 645,000 tons, a change of 28,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 78,455 tons, a change of 1,396 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 519,250 tons, a change of - 1,800 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On December 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,665 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,690 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,750 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,790 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 313 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On December 29, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,800 yuan/ton, closed at 2,751 yuan/ton, a change of 3 yuan/ton (0.11%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,850 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,729 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,308,863 lots, and the open interest was 396,675 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 29, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,400 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,900 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,499 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 2 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on SHFE aluminum and short on aluminum alloy [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The EG market continues to accumulate inventory, and prices are consolidating at low levels. The current price is not high, but the downstream hidden inventory has also reached a high level. With the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased. In addition, the production pressure is relatively large, and the inventory accumulation pressure from January to February is still relatively high, limiting the rebound space [1][3] - On the supply side, the extrusion of syngas - based production load is not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol load has recovered to a high level of over 70%. The inventory accumulation pressure is still large under high supply from January to February and weakening demand. Overseas supply pressure will ease after February. On the demand side, weaving orders are marginally weakening, the load is accelerating to decline, and the polyester load is slightly declining due to weakening efficiency [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,817 yuan/ton (a change of - 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.75%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,683 yuan/ton (a change of + 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of + 0.35%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was - 136 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of + 16 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 87 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of + 3 US dollars/ton), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 857 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of + 41 yuan/ton) [1] - The domestic ethylene glycol load has recovered to a high level of over 70% [2] International Price Difference - No specific data or conclusions are provided in the report Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Weaving orders are marginally weakening, the load is accelerating to decline, and the polyester load is slightly declining due to weakening efficiency [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 844,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 645,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons) [1] - According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 106,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 25,000 tons; this week, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 106,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 43,000 tons. The overall situation is slightly high, and it is expected that the main ports will have a slight inventory accumulation [1]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-30 市场分析 1、12月29日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价3008元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨7元/吨，涨幅 0.23%；持仓141333手，环比下跌15886手，成交237579手，环比上涨55761手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2870—3190元/吨；华南，2860—2950元/吨； 华东，3000—3120元/吨。 昨日华北地区沥青现货价格有所下跌，华东和华南地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格基本持稳。 尽管随着淡季来临，沥青终端需求偏弱，但由于个别沥青现货流通量较为紧张，供应端存在支撑，带动现货均价 小幅上涨。整体来看，目前盘面定价转移到南方地区，局部过剩矛盾仍有待消化。与此同时，委油原料断供事件 则是潜在的上行风险，市场多空因素交织，现实与预期博弈下，底部反弹需要等待更明确的信号。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号明确，可尝试左侧逢低多配置 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 原油端表现乏力 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The report indicates that in the short - term, there is a small rebound due to cost - end support and sentiment boost. However, for PE, the supply is increasing while demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and high de - stocking pressure. For PP, the supply is still relatively loose, demand is weak, and the inventory level is high. The cost end, with the recent rebound of international oil prices and propane prices, provides some support, but the overall price is still under pressure from supply - demand contradictions [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6453元/吨（-12），PP主力合约收盘价为6274元/吨（-18）。LL华北现货为6300元/吨（+50），LL华东现货为6400元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6140元/吨（+0）。LL华北基差为 - 153元/吨（+62），LL华东基差为 - 53元/吨（+12），PP华东基差为 - 134元/吨（+18） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为82.6%（-1.2%），PP开工率为76.9%（-2.5%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为73.7元/吨（+166.3），PP油制生产利润为 - 426.3元/吨（+166.3），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 848.4元/吨（-32.2） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为90.9元/吨（+16.1），PP进口利润为 - 295.6元/吨（+16.4），PP出口利润为 - 18.7美元/吨（-2.1） [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为43.9%（-1.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.2%（-0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.7%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.0%） [2]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply remains high with planned restarts of some plants and low planned maintenance in the first quarter of next year, and new production capacity is about to be released. Demand enters the off - season with overall downstream开工率 declining, and social inventory continues to accumulate. Cost support has recovered due to the recent rebound of international oil prices. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses prices [3]. - **PP**: Short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited changes. Supply is still relatively loose with temporary maintenance and planned restarts. Demand has limited order follow - up, and overall downstream开工率 declines steadily. Cost support has increased due to the rebound of international oil prices and propane prices. The supply - demand contradiction still puts pressure on prices [4]. 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see. The short - term sentiment drives the market to rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient, and the rebound height is expected to be limited [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and financial markets, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and fund flows. It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of various commodities, as well as the economic and policy environment at both international and domestic levels [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and price changes are provided for various commodities such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also presented [1] Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are reported for different regions for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal. CNF premiums and quotes are given for imported soybeans from different origins [2] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - Brazil's soybean - producing regions are expected to receive precipitation this week, which will accelerate soybean pod - filling in January. However, the hot and dry conditions in the central - eastern regions may pose concerns for soybean growth. Argentina's soybean - producing regions are expected to have dry weather this week, which may stress soybean growth [3] 国际供需 - A private exporter reported selling 100,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending December 25, 2025, was 750,312 tons, meeting expectations. As of December 27, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 97.9%, and the harvesting rate was 0.1% [5][6] 国内供需 - On December 29, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 4200 tons (43%) compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The palm oil inventory increased by 4.87% week - on - week, while the soybean oil inventory decreased by 3.07%. The imported soybean port inventory decreased by 6203 tons. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [8][9] Macro News 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 16.1%. The US November existing - home sales contract index monthly rate was 3.3%. Various EIA inventory data for the week ending December 19, 2025, are provided [10] 国内要闻 - On December 29, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted down (yuan appreciation) by 27 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 4150 billion yuan [12] Fund Flows - On December 29, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 43.66 billion yuan, including 21.944 billion yuan from commodity futures and 20.358 billion yuan from stock index futures [15]