Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing fluctuations driven by export-related rumors and India's new round of urea import tenders, leading to a significant increase in futures prices and varying spot prices across different regions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest trading session, the main urea futures contract rose by 2.47%, with a trading volume of 255,200 lots, an increase of 81,630 lots [1]. - The average spot price for medium-sized granular urea in Shandong is 1,754 RMB/ton, down by 10 RMB/ton from the previous working day; in Henan, the price is 1,760 RMB/ton, up by 9 RMB/ton; and in Hebei, it is 1,763 RMB/ton, down by 1 RMB/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of June 25, the total inventory of urea in Chinese enterprises is 1,095,900 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons week-on-week, with a significant reduction of 353% [1]. - The production capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea manufacturers is 88.28%, an increase of 0.48% from the previous period, indicating a shift from a declining to an increasing trend [1]. - Daily production of urea in China exceeds 200,000 tons, with agricultural demand not showing strong support, particularly in the Northeast region where summer corn fertilization is starting [3][4]. Group 3: Import Tenders and Future Outlook - India's RCF has announced a urea import tender with an intended purchase volume of 2 million tons, split evenly between the east and west coasts, with the bid opening on July 7 and valid until July 17 [1]. - Market sentiment is currently buoyed by export rumors and the Indian tender announcement, but caution is advised as the demand for urea may not sustain the current price levels due to an oversupply situation [2].

玉米系产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -12 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) -4 玉米淀粉月间价差(7-9):(日,元/吨) | 2377 104 | 吨) | 2732 -48 | 55 19 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) 675 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 997031 | | 135312 | 64913 | | 期货市场 | 26902 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | | | | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -47173 | | -8048 | -3377 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) -620 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 219477 | 手) | 23463 | -170 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) | 355 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9476 | -96 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2588 | -74 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 74 | -20 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 261 | -27 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 345260 | -27394 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 550961 | 34339 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 25071 | -10058 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -13119 | -34004 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 100 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 24014 | -697 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 706.1 | -18.3 期货收盘 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-25 以伊冲突缓和，成本松动下EG下跌 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4332元/吨（较前一交易日变动-169元/吨，幅度-3.75%），EG华东市场现货价 4415元/吨（较前一交易日变动-155元/吨，幅度-3.39%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）81元/吨（环比+3元/ 吨）。EG价格大幅下跌，主要原因是伊朗和以色列停战下原油大跌。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-47美元/吨（环比-6美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为250元/吨（环比-10 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为62.2万吨（环比+0.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为53.7万吨（环比-2.7万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数7.7万吨，港口库存平稳；本周 华东主港计划到港总数6.2万吨，偏少，港口库存可能再度下降。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供增需减趋势。供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，6月供需结构依旧表现良性去库，但是仓单 陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，伊朗乙二醇停车装置陆续恢复 ...

中东问题对铝价形成一定扰动 重要数据 铝现货方面：MM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20540元/吨，较上一交易日下跌110元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至140元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20360元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 下跌10元/吨至-30元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20420元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至35元 /吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 铝期货方面：2025-06-24日沪铝主力合约开于20415元/吨，收于20315元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌105元/ 吨，跌幅-0.51%，最高价达20450元/吨，最低价达到20255元/吨。全天交易日成交136633手，较上一交易日减 少44423手，全天交易日持仓250085手，较上一交易日减少3512手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.4万吨。截止2025-06-24，LME铝库存339900 吨，较前一交易日减少1075吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-24 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3120元/吨，山东价格录得 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-25 宏观氛围影响，原料波动加大 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13665元/吨，较前一日变动-285元/吨。NR主力合约11790元/吨，较前一日变动-220 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13650元/吨，较前一日变动-300元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13600元/吨， 较前一日变动-220元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1680美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1620美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11350元/吨，较前一日变动-250元/吨。 市场资讯 据隆众了解，进入下旬，半钢胎企业整体出货表现未有改善，国内市场进货压力较大，出口市场尚存支撑，多企 业延续控产，缓解库存增加压力。全钢胎企业表现稍显平稳，听闻，个别工厂次月有回收之前促销政策计划，短 期内或对市场拿货形成一定刺激，短期内关注其他企业价格政策动向。 据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为10199.3万条，同比下降1 ...

策略 受消息面影响，碳酸锂盘面反弹 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 市场分析 2025年6月24日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于58940元/吨，收于60700元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨3.06%。当 日成交量为681747手，持仓量为343564手，较前一交易日减少13390手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳800 元/吨。所有合约总持仓631536手，较前一交易日减少25081手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加503296手，成 交量860946，整体投机度为1.36。当日碳酸锂仓单22375手，较上个交易日减少4404手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月24日电池级碳酸锂报价5.93-6.05万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.78-5.88万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。当前碳 酸锂市场仍延续供大于求的基本格局，供需矛盾依然突出。从供应端看，市场可流通货源充足，库存压力尚未得 到有效缓解；需求侧则未有明显增量预期，下游正极材料企业维持谨慎采购策略，仅以刚需采购为主。今日市场 流传多则 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Zinc prices face upward pressure again. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the lack of fundamental drivers for price increases. If social inventories continue to rise, it will exert significant downward pressure on zinc prices [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$24.65/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 130 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 250 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 180 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 100 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On June 24, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,875 yuan/ton and closed at 21,920 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 185,998 lots, an increase of 88,110 lots, and the position was 121,470 lots, an increase of 53,580 lots. The highest price reached 22,030 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,825 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of June 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 77,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous week. As of June 24, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 123,450 tons, a decrease of 2,450 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Transportation in South China may be affected, but the spot market is not strong due to low inventory, and the spot premium continues to decline. Zinc alloy开工率 has dropped significantly, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur. TC remains stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume is increasing. Although the further upward space is limited, the strong trend remains unchanged. There are still smelting profits at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains [4] Strategy - Consumption shows a marginal decline, the spot premium has dropped significantly, and zinc price increases lack fundamental drivers. If social inventories continue to increase, it will form significant downward pressure [5]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 06 月 25 日 铝：偏弱运行 氧化铝：底部震荡 铝合金：淡季走深 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20315 | -50 | -145 | 130 | -315 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20270 | ー | l | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2568 | -24 | 23 | ୧୨ | -55 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 136633 | -44423 | 34935 | -33905 | 20834 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 250085 | -3512 | 51141 | 49202 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided reports do not mention industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The Malaysian palm oil market is under downward pressure due to the sharp decline in crude oil and the recovery of production. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures market is expected to fall further to the range of 8,150 - 8,250 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: International soybean oil prices are under pressure due to the expected decline in Indian imports and favorable crop weather in the US. Domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing, but the factory sell - pressure is not strong, and the basis quote is supported [1]. Meal Industry - The bullish sentiment of US soybeans has been fully traded. With the improvement of weather expectations and the decline in oil prices, the market is weak. Domestic soybean inventory pressure is acceptable, and soybean meal inventory is still low. The short - term disk may follow the US soybeans to correct, but the decline is expected to be limited [3]. Corn Industry - The current corn supply varies with traders' strategies. In the short term, corn prices may correct due to increased arrivals and auction expectations, but in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand gap supports an upward trend. It is advisable to go long on dips [5]. Pig Industry - The current pig breeding still has profits, but the market is cautious about capacity expansion. The short - term disk may be strong, but there is a risk of a decline in the 09 contract near delivery if the live inventory continues to be postponed [9][10]. Cotton Industry - The market driving force is still weak, with the downstream textile industry's开机 rate decreasing and finished product inventory increasing. However, the supply - side basis of old crops is still relatively strong. The short - term domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. Sugar Industry - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. If there are no new negative factors, the possibility of a significant decline in sugar prices is small. This week, it is expected to maintain bottom - range fluctuations between 5,650 - 5,800 [15]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is still sufficient. It is expected that the national egg price may rise slightly this week and then stabilize, and may experience a slight decline later [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On June 24, the futures price of Y2509 was 7,606 yuan, down 1.60% from the previous day. The basis was 654 yuan, down 26 yuan. The inventory of factories increased by 30,000 tons last weekend, and the estimated soybean arrival in July is about 11 million tons [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On June 24, the futures price of P2509 was 8,208 yuan, down 2.05%. The basis was 282 yuan, down 138 yuan. The import cost in Guangzhou Port in September was 8,737.7 yuan, down 1.80% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On June 24, the futures price of OI2509 was 9,310 yuan, down 1.55%. The basis was 470 yuan, up 7 yuan [1]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: On June 24, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The futures price of M2509 was 3,037 yuan, down 0.98%. The basis was - 117 yuan, up 10 yuan [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,550 yuan, down 1.20%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,657 yuan, down 0.82%. The basis was - 107 yuan, down 9 yuan [3]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On June 24, the futures price of Corn 2509 was 2,389 yuan, down 0.79%. The basis was - 9 yuan, up 19 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 108 yuan, down 9 yuan [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2509 was 2,744 yuan, down 1.51%. The basis was - 24 yuan, up 42 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan, down 24 yuan [5]. Pig Industry - **Futures**: On June 24, the price of the main contract was 13,550 yuan for the 2507 contract, up 0.74%, and 13,940 yuan for the 2509 contract, down 0.29%. The 7 - 9 spread was 390 yuan, down 140 yuan [9]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 14,550 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Shandong, it was 14,900 yuan, up 100 yuan [9]. Cotton Industry - **Futures**: On June 24, the futures price of Cotton 2509 was 13,610 yuan, up 1.08%; the 2601 contract was 13,585 yuan, up 0.63%. The 9 - 1 spread was 25 yuan, up 60 yuan [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14,767 yuan, down 0.09%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,883 yuan, down 0.07% [13]. Sugar Industry - **Futures**: On June 24, the futures price of Sugar 2509 was 5,710 yuan, down 0.19%; the 2601 contract was 5,555 yuan, down 0.36%. The 1 - 9 spread was - 155 yuan, down 9 yuan [15]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6,040 yuan, down 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5,860 yuan, down 0.09% [15]. Egg Industry - **Futures**: On June 24, the price of the Egg 09 contract was 3,642 yuan, up 0.33%; the 07 contract was 2,819 yuan, down 1.33%. The 9 - 7 spread was 823 yuan, up 50 yuan [17]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.92 yuan per catty, down 0.24% [17].