中国经济网北京12月16日讯（记者 张翀） 中央经济工作会议提出要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策"，如何理解"积极有为"？如何看待更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策这套"组合拳"？财政 部原副部长朱光耀在做客中国经济网《深谈》时进行了深入解读。 （责任编辑：郭健东 ） 面对当前经济发展面临的挑战，朱光耀在访谈中表示，中国拥有庞大的经济存量，我们既要正视挑 战，更要看到"十四五"期间取得的巨大成绩，这些都是未来发展的强大物质基础。在宏观经济政策层 面，此次未提及超常规政策，意味着通过更加积极有为的宏观经济政策组合，包括更加积极的财政政策 和适度宽松的货币政策，即可有效应对当前挑战。 谈及财政政策，朱光耀指出，2025年财政赤字率4%左右、地方专项债券发行4.4万亿的规模，还有 1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000医院的特别国债，这构成了政策有效落地的现实基础。未来将通过更 积极的财政支持，持续推动经济高质量发展。而适度宽松的货币政策核心目标之一是解决物价问题，重 点推动物价向2%左右的合理区间靠拢。 围绕中央经济工作会议首次提出的"把促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考 量"，朱光耀认为推动物 ...

费城联邦储备银行行长安娜・保尔森近日表示，她预期美国通胀将在未来一年有所缓和，但也同时对劳动力市场可能出现的进一步走弱风险提出了警告。 保尔森在一次商业论坛上发表了她的评估。她指出，目前她对美国劳动力市场疲软的担忧，要高于对通胀可能再度上行的顾虑。这部分源于她认为通胀有相 当大的可能性在进入新年后逐步回落。她同时提到，当前关税政策对商品价格的影响预计将在明年年中左右趋于消退。 在描述劳动力市场现状时，保尔森使用了"在弯曲，但并未折断"的比喻。她提醒，当前就业增长主要集中在医疗和社会服务等特定行业，更广泛领域的招聘 活动实则依然疲软。她总结道，美国劳动力市场目前尚可，但下行风险正在上升。 就在本周，美联储宣布了连续第三次降息，同时维持了其在二零二六年仅再加息一次的利率前景预测。此次利率决策会议出现了自二零一九年以来的首次三 张异议票，且异议来自不同方向，凸显了决策者们内部存在的显著分歧。政策声明中的措辞也出现了细微调整，暗示美联储官员们对于未来何时再次调整政 策的不确定性有所增加。 保尔森本人并非本年度的投票成员，但将在明年获得投票权。她表示，她依然认为当前的货币政策在某种程度上处于偏紧状态，不过近期的降息举措 ...

策划：邹伟 主编：许晟、李延霞 记者：刘慧、吴雨、申铖 拍摄：陈泽鹏、秦彦娟 制作：贾稀荃 新华社国内部出品 【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵文涵】 ...

贝森特预计美国2025年全年GDP增速将达到3.5%，显示对经济增长的强劲预期。他对明年美国劳动者 的前景感到乐观。 在通胀方面，贝森特预计2026年前六个月通胀将大幅下降，房租也将大幅下降。他承认物价水平已经非 常高，但认为实际工资的提升将能解决这一问题，为美国家庭带来实质性的购买力改善。 美联储主席人选即将揭晓 贝森特透露，特朗普将于1月初公布美联储主席人选，猜测届时将正式宣布这一关键任命。本周可能还 有一到两次美联储的面试正在进行中。 周二（12月16日），美国财政部长贝森特表示，对美国经济前景表达乐观预期，预计2025年全年GDP增 速将达到3.5%，并对明年美国劳动者的前景感到乐观。 他预计2026年前六个月通胀将大幅下降，房租也将大幅下降，并认为尽管物价水平已经非常高，但实际 工资的提升将能解决这一问题。 同时，贝森特指出，特朗普将于1月初公布美联储主席人选，本周可能还有一到两次面试。这一关键任 命将影响未来数年美国货币政策走向，市场对此高度关注。 贝森特在表态中否认了外界对新任美联储主席独立性的质疑，称特朗普在面试中对政策相关问题一直非 常直率。他表示，候选人沃什和哈塞特都非常有资格，并驳斥了" ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/12/16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 21,845.00 -110.00 | -75.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -45.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,541.00 -128.00 | +4.00↑ -113.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 288,833.00 | -5540.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 190,885.00 | -15090.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 34,975.00 | 0.00 库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis [2]. - On the fundamental raw material side, the spot processing fee index of copper concentrate remained at a low negative level, and the expectation of tight ore supply would have a long - term impact on the copper smelting end, providing cost support [2]. - In terms of supply, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, was still relatively good, making up for some of the profit losses of smelters. The operating rate of smelters rebounded due to the resumption of production after previous overhauls, but the increase was only slight due to the tight raw materials [2]. - In terms of demand, boosted by macro expectations, copper prices were strong in the short term, but high prices inhibited the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers, who became more cautious, and social inventories increased slightly [2]. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions was 1.25, a month - on - month increase of 0.1264, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines were below the 0 axis, and the green bars slightly converged. The conclusion was to conduct light - position trading in a volatile market and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 91,920.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 480.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 11,593.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 62.50 US dollars [2]. - The spread between adjacent months of the main contract was - 50.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.00 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 217,374.00 lots, an increase of 51,565.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 34,081.00 lots, a decrease of 1,852.00 lots; the LME copper inventory was 165,875.00 tons, a decrease of 25.00 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,389.00 tons, an increase of 484.00 tons; the cancelled LME copper warrants were 65,400.00 tons, a decrease of 600.00 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 45,784.00 tons, a decrease of 2,856.00 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 91,700.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565.00 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market was 91,995.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400.00 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 48.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was - 220.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread was - 4.39 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25.08 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 245.15 million tons, a decrease of 13.56 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.08 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.22 US dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 82,200.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 460.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 82,900.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 460.00 yuan [2]. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,400.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 1,000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 120.40 million tons, a decrease of 6.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000.00 tons, a decrease of 13,000.00 tons [2]. - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 63,090.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 970.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 0.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78,150.00 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 200.40 million tons, a decrease of 22.80 million tons; the cumulative investment in power grid construction was 4,824.34 billion yuan, an increase of 446.27 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative real estate development investment was 78,591.00 billion yuan, an increase of 5,028.30 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,390,000.00 million pieces, an increase of 213,000.00 million pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 17.87%, a decrease of 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 17.09%, an increase of 0.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 16.98%, a decrease of 0.0164%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.25, an increase of 0.1264 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China's economic "report card" for November was released. In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year. From January to November, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, among which manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in November remained unchanged at 5.1% [2]. - Xi Jinping's important article "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move" was published in Qiushi Journal. The article pointed out that expanding domestic demand is related to both economic stability and economic security, and it is a strategic move rather than a temporary measure. Implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand is necessary for maintaining the long - term, sustainable and healthy development of China's economy and for meeting the people's growing needs for a better life [2]. - Federal Reserve's Williams said that monetary policy is well - prepared for 2026. It is expected that the US unemployment rate will drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025. The risks in the labor market have increased, while inflation risks have eased. The Fed's policy has shifted from mild tightening to neutral. It is expected that the inflation rate will rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027. The Fed is expected to actively use the standing repurchase facility to manage liquidity [2]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan reiterated that the Fed's policy stance poses unnecessary restrictions on the economy, and believes that after excluding "phantom inflation", the "underlying" inflation level is close to the Fed's target [2]

中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体保持稳健，前三季度内需对经济增长贡献率达到71%。提振消费政策成效明显，扩大有效投资扎实推进。我们也注意到，近几个月消费和投资增速有所放缓，需要持续加力扩内需。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行（新华社）保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。 https://t.co/hg50nWl2V1 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize investment and expand domestic demand as a priority for economic work in the coming year [1][5] - The government plans to increase the scale of central budget investment and optimize the management of local government special bonds to stimulate private investment [1][6] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" will see the acceleration of strategic emerging industries and future industry projects, supported by sufficient financial tools and special bond reserves [1][6] Group 2 - In November, the social financing scale increased by 24,885 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, with a notable contribution from non-standard financing and corporate bond financing [2][3] - The contribution of credit to social financing decreased, with new RMB loans of 4,053 billion yuan in November, reflecting insufficient effective demand in the macro economy [2][3] - Non-standard financing increased significantly, with corporate bond financing reaching 4,169 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards direct financing [3][4] Group 3 - The industrial added value maintained steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in November, while fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [5][6] - The demand for equipment updates remains strong due to trends in digitalization and automation, with policies supporting large-scale equipment updates expected to be implemented in 2024 [6] - The central economic work conference highlights the importance of combining "investment in people" and "investment in materials" to unlock significant potential [1][6] Group 4 - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, although it showed a decline compared to October [7] - The government plans to implement actions to boost consumption and develop a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income [7] - The overall resilience of foreign trade has supported stable economic growth, but challenges remain for the upcoming year, necessitating stable exchange rates to promote exports [7]

·澳联邦银行：澳储行或于2026年启动加息，抗通胀成政策核心 【机构分析】 ·野村证券预计，韩国央行已结束本轮降息周期，2026年将维持基准利率不变，政策风险转向加息。韩 国经济有望在2026年二季度弥合产出缺口，受益于消费回暖、建筑业复苏及半导体行业景气度上行，进 一步降息必要性下降。 ·Convera策略师称，若英国央行降息但释放谨慎前瞻指引，英镑可能上涨。若降息投票接近或部分委员 反对，将传递鹰派信号，抑制市场对大幅宽松的预期。 ·野村证券：韩国央行降息周期结束，2026年风险转向加息 ·标普全球：英国PMI企稳回升，企业信心修复但增长仍微弱 ·若货币政策声明暗示进一步降息空间有限，投资者或重新定价宽松周期，推动英镑和英债收益率短期 反弹。交易关键在于英国央行"行动"与"言辞"的背离，鹰派前瞻指引或比降息本身更主导市场短期走 势。 ·德国智库ZEW称，应对贸易冲突、地缘政治紧张及投资不足的改革措施或将纳入2026年议程。扩张性 财政政策有望为德国经济注入新动力。市场预期明显转乐观，结束三年停滞，德国经济复苏前景向好。 ·标普全球指出，英国12月综合PMI升至52.1，企业信心回升，主因财政预算后加税不确 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场年度报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 海外市场年度报告 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 先抑后扬 2026 年海外市场展望 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2026 年美国的经济可能会以中期选举和货币政策为主线，呈现先抑后扬的节奏。 中期选举：博弈加剧，内政为先。美国两党博弈仍在加剧，特朗普能否继续横扫面 临较大不确定性。1938 年以来，总统所在政党在 22 次选举中有 20 次都在众议院 选举中失利，唯二的两次例外都源于特殊情况。从中期选举的角度来看，2026 年 特朗普的政策倾向性有四方面：1）继续给大型科技企业提供税收优惠等方面的支 持。2）可能会针对中小企业和低收入人群进行一定支持，以平衡社会分化的问题。 3）加大力度推动"制造业回流"，但必要性并不高。4）关税政策预计会持续，但 整体力度会降低。整体的思路是在《大美丽法案》的基础 ...