来源：滚动播报 本月早些时候，当美联储在针对杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的一项刑事调查中收到传票时，北卡罗来 纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯立即为鲍威尔辩护，承诺在调查结束前，将阻止美国总统特朗普提名的 任何美联储人选。蒂利斯周五上午重申了这一立场。他在一篇社交媒体帖子中写道："凯文·沃什是一位 合格的提名人，对货币政策有深刻的理解。""然而，司法部继续依据委员会的证词对主席杰罗姆·鲍威 尔进行刑事调查，而任何有理性的人都不会认为该证词具有犯罪意图。"蒂利斯的反对可能会阻止参议 院银行委员会批准沃什的提名，直至蒂利斯满意。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The spot price of gold has surpassed $5,300 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over 20%, driven by a weak dollar and expectations of stable interest rates from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold reached a peak of $5,311.31 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in its price trajectory [1] - Silver, platinum, and palladium also saw price increases, with silver reaching $114.68 per ounce and a year-to-date increase of nearly 60% [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The U.S. dollar index has fallen to a near four-year low, influenced by comments from former President Trump regarding the dollar's performance, which have heightened market confidence issues [1] - The expectation of stable interest rates from the Federal Reserve has further enhanced the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 3: Future Predictions - Deutsche Bank forecasts that gold prices could exceed $6,000 per ounce by 2026, supported by central banks' ongoing accumulation of non-dollar assets [1] - The combination of a weak dollar and expectations of global monetary policy easing is identified as the core driving force behind the current rise in precious metals [1]

转自：新华财经 新华财经纽约1月30日电（记者刘亚南 徐静）美国总统特朗普30日宣布，他将提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）出任下一任美联 储主席。 沃什出生于1970年，目前是斯坦福大学访问学者。沃什曾公开批评量化宽松政策的副作用，认为美联储制定货币政策的方式需要"政权更迭"，美联储需要 与美国财政部在政策上更紧密协作。 特朗普2017年曾就美联储主席一职面试沃什，但最终选择了时任美联储理事的杰罗姆·鲍威尔。据报道，特朗普29日在白宫会见了沃什。 按照有关规定，特朗普关于美联储下一任主席的提名还需要获得联邦参议院的确认。 特朗普早在其首个总统任期就多次批评鲍威尔货币政策，他在去年1月再次出任美国总统后频繁批评鲍威尔在降息方面行动迟缓加剧联邦政府债务负担， 并多次威胁解除鲍威尔的美联储主席职务。 编辑：王姝睿 ...

美国总统特朗普30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场， 但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。特朗普在首个总统任期内提名鲍威尔为美联储主 席。当时，鲍威尔与沃什均为特朗普考虑的人选，但鲍威尔最终获得提名。 （资料图） 特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席。 来源 | 央视新闻客户端 凯文·沃什 鲍威尔将于今年5月结束美联储主席任期。他虽然是特朗普任命的，但却因货币政策长期遭特朗普公开 指责。去年再度就任美国总统后，特朗普曾多次尝试干涉美联储货币政策决议。鲍威尔目前还因美联储 办公大楼翻修项目遭刑事调查。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman marks the end of Jerome Powell's era, with Warsh expected to take office before the June 2026 FOMC meeting if confirmed by the Senate [1] Group 1: Background and Qualifications - Kevin Warsh, born in 1970, holds a bachelor's degree in public policy from Stanford and a law degree from Harvard [2] - His career spans Wall Street, government, and central banking, starting at Morgan Stanley and later serving as a key liaison during the 2008 financial crisis [2] - Warsh was appointed as a Federal Reserve Governor at the age of 35, making him one of the youngest in history [2] Group 2: Policy Views - Warsh has criticized the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion over the past 15 years, arguing that quantitative easing deviates from the central bank's core functions [3] - He believes inflation is a result of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions rather than external factors, emphasizing a return to price and financial stability as primary responsibilities [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - Warsh has historically held a hawkish stance on monetary policy but has recently supported faster rate cuts [4] - Financial markets may interpret Warsh's potential appointment as a signal for more certain rate cuts, with expectations of a dual approach of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [4] - Analysts predict that under Warsh, the Federal Reserve may implement 2-3 rate cuts in 2026, totaling 50-75 basis points [5] Group 4: Challenges and Concerns - The independence of the Federal Reserve may face challenges under Warsh, especially given the Trump administration's previous interventions [6] - Concerns exist regarding the potential weakening of the Fed's autonomy, which could lead to increased market volatility and higher long-term interest rates [6]

30日，美国总统特朗普提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。该消息发布后，市场迅速聚焦 其货币政策取向及美联储独立性问题。 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授胡捷在接受中新经纬采访时表示，若仅从其客观政策观点出发，而 不引入政治因素推断，沃什在未来一年内大概率支持降息，且相较其他更强硬的鹰派，其认可的降息幅 度可能相对较大。 "从他的政策见解来看，他对当前经济环境的判断，更倾向于通过宽松货币政策来平衡通胀与就业。"胡 捷指出，在未来一年的利率路径上，沃什主张降息的态度较为清晰。 从具体运行机制来看，美联储主席只是联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）19名委员之一，而该委员会中拥 有投票权的委员为12人。只有一票投票权的主席，虽在沟通和协调中具备一定影响力，但并不意味着其 个人偏好可以直接决定货币政策方向。 胡捷指出，FOMC的决策仍将围绕通胀率与失业率两大核心目标展开，政策制定最终需要回归经济数据 和既定目标框架，而非个人立场。在具体政策空间上，他认为，结合当前通胀与就业数据，市场对未来 一年降息幅度的预期大致集中在50个基点至100个基点之间。"相对谨慎的观点认为可能在50个基点左 右，但综合判断，我认为降息 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, which requires Senate approval [1] - Walsh, who joined the Federal Reserve in 2006, was the youngest member at that time and has shifted from a hawkish monetary policy stance to supporting Trump's tariff policies and advocating for quicker interest rate cuts [1] - Current Chairman Jerome Powell's term will end in May, and he has faced criticism from Trump regarding monetary policy decisions, despite being appointed by him [1] Group 2 - Walsh holds a JD from Stanford Law School and a BA in Economics from Stanford University, with extensive experience in both public service and private finance, providing him with a comprehensive understanding of monetary policy and market dynamics [1] - Historically, Walsh has maintained a hawkish stance on monetary policy while emphasizing fiscal discipline and a cautious approach to interest rate cuts [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market shows a complex situation with multiple influencing factors. The macro - environment has both positive and negative aspects, and the supply - demand relationship is also in a state of change. In terms of operation, it is recommended to take a long - position approach on pullbacks. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high due to cost support and the tight supply of scrap aluminum [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 - It is recommended to take a long - position approach on pullbacks. Aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and its price is likely to remain high due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and cost support. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [5]. 3.2行情回顾 - In January, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed different trends. The alumina futures price rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy futures prices showed a strong trend [7]. 3.3宏观面 - **US Economic Situation**: The US economic data is mixed. The GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was revised upwards, the initial jobless claims increased slightly, and the PCE price index rose moderately. The labor market is still slowing down. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts in 2025. The next Fed rate cut may drive a new round of rise in non - ferrous metals, and the specific timing of the rate cut is worthy of attention [9][10]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical potential risks are escalating, and the global aluminum premium transmission is intensifying [13]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: China's economy generally remains stable, and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. The central bank will maintain the LPR unchanged. The GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year. The central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds has been issued, which will drive total investment of over 460 billion yuan [14][16]. - **Supply Situation**: The domestic supply of bauxite is in a tight pattern. In December 2025, the domestic bauxite output increased slightly month - on - month, and the short - term supply increase is limited. Overseas, the supply of bauxite from Guinea is expected to be stable, with an estimated export volume of 180 million tons in 2026, but the supply from Australia has decreased. The alumina production capacity is increasing, but there are many maintenance and production cuts recently, and the supply pressure has decreased [17][18][21][23]. 3.4基本面 - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The daily output of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase at a high level, but the overall supply is restricted. In December 2025, the output of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. In January, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased to 44.1 million tons, and the output was 3.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. Overseas, the release of production capacity is lower than expected [26][27][30]. - **Aluminum Processing**: Affected by the Spring Festival effect and high aluminum prices, the operating rate of aluminum processing has decreased month - on - month. The overall operating rate of aluminum processing is 59.4%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week [32][33]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment period. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of real estate sales area, investment, new construction area, and completion area were - 16.6%, - 36.8%, - 19.3%, and - 18.4% respectively. The annual data also showed a decline, but the sales decline has narrowed, and there may be an improvement in real estate expectations [35]. - **Automobile and Photovoltaic Industries**: In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached a new high, with new energy vehicle production and sales exceeding 16 million. The new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 19 million in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The export of automobiles is expected to reach 7.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The new photovoltaic installation in December 2025 decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decrease of 43.3% [39][41]. - **Inventory Situation**: The LME aluminum inventory is in a continuous destocking state, while the SHFE aluminum inventory is in a seasonal inventory accumulation state. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is in the inventory accumulation channel, and the inventory accumulation pressure is expected to continue in February. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy is relatively high, and the scrap aluminum market is in short supply, and the cost support remains [42][43][46][52]. - **Aluminum Export and Import**: In 2025, the cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In December, the export decreased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the import increased by 33.3% year - on - year. The export of aluminum products is expected to remain stable in January [50].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Kevin Warsh has a hawkish stance on monetary policy, rarely opposing the possibility of interest rate hikes [1] - Warsh made errors in his policy responses during the financial crisis, failing to grasp the nature, scale, and impact of the economic shock similar to the Great Depression [1] - During the 2007-2008 period, Warsh prioritized inflation as the main risk, despite a significant deflationary shock already being triggered, leading to a near-collapse of the U.S. banking system and a freeze in credit markets [1]

凯文·沃什曾于2006年2月至2011年3月担任美联储理事，并曾在近期公开批评过美联储的政策和成绩。 有消息称摩根大通CEO戴蒙公开表示支持其接任美联储主席，特朗普也表示沃什在货币政策立场上与 其"基本一致"。 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 美联社报道，美国总统特朗普于当地时间30日宣布，提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席， 这一提名还需获得参议院批准。 据报道，沃什将在现任主席鲍威尔的任期于5月届满后继任。 ...