【导读】日韩股市纷纷走高，韩国综合指数涨超1% 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下日韩股市的最新情况。 10月15日，日本股市高开高走，日本东证指数一度涨超1%。 | 日本东证指数 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指 HQ.TOPIX | | | | | | | 3163.16 +29.17 +0.93% | | | | | | | 10-15 08:09:22 | | | | | | | 今开 3153.43 最高 3167.10 | | | | | | | 昨收 3133.99 | | 最低 3151.67 | | | | | 分时 園K 月K | 日K | | 室K | 更多, ◎ | | | 均价:3160.11 最新:3163.16 +29.17 +0.93% | | | | | | | 3187.10 | | | | | 1.06% | | 3133.99 | | | | | 0.00% | | 3100.88 | | | | | -1.06% | | 08:00 11:45 | | | | | 14:30 | | MACD . ...

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the long-term asset balance sheet reduction plan, known as Quantitative Tightening (QT), may be nearing its end [1][2] - Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining sufficient liquidity in the financial system to effectively control short-term interest rates and ensure normal market fluctuations [1] - Since mid-2022, the Federal Reserve has been reducing liquidity through QT to absorb the massive funds injected during the pandemic, with the balance sheet size decreasing from over $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion [1] Summary by Sections QT and Liquidity - Powell noted signs of tightening liquidity conditions, including rising repo rates and temporary market pressures on specific dates [1] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction has been a response to the large-scale asset purchases made during the pandemic to stabilize the market [1] Future of QT - The ultimate target size for the balance sheet reduction has not been specified, but Powell stated that the current ample reserve system has proven effective for monetary policy and financial stability [2] - Some officials believe that there is still sufficient liquidity in the financial system, suggesting that QT can continue without disrupting the money market [1][2] Flexibility and Caution - Powell mentioned that experiences since 2020 indicate that the Federal Reserve can be more flexible in using balance sheet tools in the future [3] - The aim is to avoid a repeat of the market pressures experienced during the last QT phase in 2019, which forced the Fed to restart asset purchases [3] Economic Outlook - Powell did not dismiss market expectations for a potential interest rate cut at the upcoming meeting, although he did not explicitly endorse this view [3] - He indicated that economic activity might be "more robust than expected" based on data available before the government shutdown [3]

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised the global real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from 3.0% in July, while maintaining growth rates for 2024 and 2026 at 3.3% and 3.1% respectively [1] - Despite a more accommodative financial environment and limited trade shocks, the IMF emphasizes significant downside risks to global growth, particularly from escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties [1] Regional Economic Insights Latin America and the Caribbean - The growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025 has been increased from 2.2% to 2.4%, but the 2026 forecast has been lowered from 2.4% to 2.3% [2] - Mexico stands out with a growth forecast for 2025 raised from 0.2% to 1.0%, and for 2026 to 1.5% [2] - Brazil's growth forecast for 2025 is slightly up to 2.4%, but down to 1.9% for 2026, with a significant rise in debt-to-output ratio expected [2] - Argentina's growth forecast has worsened, with 2025 expectations lowered from 5.5% to 4.5% and further down to 4.0% in 2026 [2] - Inflation pressures in the region are expected to ease, with forecasts of 7.6% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026, down from 16.6% in 2024 [2] Eurozone - The growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 has been raised from 1.0% to 1.2%, while the 2026 forecast has been reduced from 1.2% to 1.1% [3] - Current growth is achieved at a high fiscal cost, with debt-to-GDP ratio projected to rise from 87% in 2024 to 92% by 2030, driven by increased spending in defense and infrastructure [3] - The negative impacts of protectionist measures are beginning to show, with high costs associated with trade adjustments [3] Japan - Japan's growth forecast for 2025 has been significantly raised from 0.7% to 1.1%, with a 2026 forecast of 0.6% [4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually raise interest rates to 1.5%, which is considered neutral for the economy and aligned with inflation targets [4] - The second quarter saw an annualized GDP growth of 2.2%, supported by robust capital spending and preemptive exports by automotive manufacturers [4] United Kingdom - The UK's growth forecast for 2025 has been increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3%, with the same forecast for 2026 [5] - The inflation rate is expected to remain the highest in the G7 at 3.4% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, limiting the Bank of England's ability to cut interest rates [5] - Per capita GDP growth is projected to be the weakest in the G7 at 0.5% in 2026 [5] Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 3% to 4%, with the same forecast for 2026 [6] - The upward revision is attributed to the faster-than-expected exit from oil production cuts, with non-oil sector growth reaching 4.8% in the first half of 2025, contributing over 55% to the overall GDP growth [7]

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普周二美股尾盘时在社交媒体上发文，称其政府正在考虑"终止与中 国有关食用油的商业往来"。受此消息影响，三大指数跳水，纳指、标普500指数最终收跌。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨202.88点，涨幅为0.44%，报46270.46点；纳指跌172.91点，跌幅为0.76%， 报22521.7点；标普500指数跌10.41点，跌幅为0.16%，报6644.31点。博通(AVGO.US)跌3.5%，英伟达 (NVDA.US)跌4.4%，纳微半导体(NVTS.US)涨26%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.95%，阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)跌超2%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数跌120.72点，跌幅0.50%，报24254.56点；英国富时100指数涨8.38点，涨幅 0.09%，报9451.25点；法国CAC40指数跌14.64点，跌幅0.18%，报7919.62点；欧洲斯托克50指数跌 12.74点，跌幅0.23%，报5555.45点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨45.21点，涨幅0.29%，报15583.51点；意大利 富时MIB指数跌83.59点，跌幅0.20%，报42084.00点。 鲍 ...

受上周末贸易摩擦升级影响，海外市场情绪恶化，美国科技股及主要板块抛压严重，美股显著下跌，美债收益率回落。10 月11日，基金和证券等机构积极买入债券，国内现券收益率大幅下行。10月13日，国债期货普遍高开，TL2512合约涨幅一 度超过0.6%，尾盘随着权益市场企稳，国债期货涨幅收窄。 图为国债收益率走势（单位：%） 3月下旬至4月初，加税风波使市场避险情绪升温，10年期国债收益率从3月18日的高点1.89%快速回落至4月7日的1.63%， 13个交易日回落幅度超过26BP。此次美国总统特朗普关于中美贸易的言论略超市场预期，对美股、美债市场产生较大影 响。我国商务部回应近期中方相关经贸措施时指出，美方的行为严重损害中方利益，严重破坏双方经贸会谈氛围，中方对 此坚决反对。如果美方一意孤行，中方必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 随着美国政府"停摆"，市场预计美联储10月降息25个基点的概率大幅提升，明年年底利率中枢将回到3%左右。美联储进入 降息周期，一方面，会缩小中美国债利差，提升人民币债券的吸引力；另一方面，将缓解人民币汇率的压力，为我国央行 实施更宽松的货币政策提供更大的外部空间和更好的时间窗口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the government bond futures market is influenced by various factors, including rising market risk aversion due to trade tensions, changes in monetary policy expectations, and uncertainties in the economic fundamentals of China [1][2]. Group 1: Market Influences - The increase in market risk aversion is primarily driven by escalating trade frictions, which have heightened the demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has engaged in significant monetary operations, including a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, which has raised expectations for continued monetary easing [1]. - The manufacturing PMI for September remains in contraction territory, indicating ongoing uncertainties in China's economic recovery, although there is optimism regarding technology-led growth [1]. Group 2: Regulatory and Economic Factors - The release of the draft regulation on the management of public fund sales fees has introduced new uncertainties, leading some institutions to preemptively sell off assets, which has pressured the market [1]. - The strong performance of the stock market in September has also exerted some downward pressure on the bond market [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market's future performance will depend on the development of trade tensions; a short-lived escalation may not significantly alter monetary policy expectations [2]. - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is crucial, as any signals regarding economic stability could impact market confidence [2][3]. - Continuous monitoring of supply-demand dynamics in the bond market and changes in liquidity conditions is essential [3].

美联储柯林斯：即使放松货币政策，其力度仍将"温和限制"。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔周二警告称，美国劳动力市场显示出进一步的困境迹象，暗示他可能准备支持本月晚 些时候再次降息。鲍威尔指出："就业的下行风险已经上升。"这是迄今为止最强烈的暗示，表明美联储 官员认为他们有足够的证据支持将美国借贷成本再次下调25个基点。鲍威尔补充说，即使没有新的劳工 统计局数据（因政府关门而推迟），私人制作的就业市场指标以及美联储内部研究也提供了足够的理 由，表明就业市场正在降温。"现有证据"表明"裁员和招聘人数仍然很低"，而"家庭对就业机会的看法 和企业对招聘困难的看法继续呈下降趋势"。这些言论表明，鲍威尔在货币政策上变得更加鸽派。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is conducting a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to stabilize liquidity, indicating a continued supportive monetary policy stance [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 600 billion yuan 6-month reverse repurchase operation on October 15, 2023, as part of its strategy to maintain market stability [1]. - This operation follows the maturity of 800 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repos on the same day, helping to smooth short-term funding fluctuations [1]. - In October, the total net injection of liquidity through reverse repos is approximately 400 billion yuan, which is an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to September [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Expectations - The increase in reverse repo operations is attributed to heightened funding demand due to concentrated government bond issuances and the introduction of new policy financial instruments [2]. - Analysts expect that the PBOC will continue to use both reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity into the market [2][3]. - There is a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the fourth quarter, which would provide longer-term, lower-cost liquidity to the market [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC is likely to maintain a stable short-term liquidity environment, with interest rates expected to stabilize around 1.5% [3]. - The market is anticipated to experience limited liquidity gaps, with structural tensions being manageable [3].

10月9日，央行已开展1.1万亿元3个月（91天）期买断式逆回购，相较当月到期量实现3000亿元加量续 作；此次6000亿元6个月期操作则进一步加量1000亿元。至此，10月两个期限品种合计加量续作规模达 4000亿元，较9月增加1000亿元。 对此，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，6000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购投放能有效熨平资金波动， 维持市场流动性稳定充裕。 [ 央行通过买断式逆回购注入中期流动性，既能助力政府债券顺利发行、引导金融机构加大信贷投放， 也释放出数量型政策工具持续加力的信号，彰显货币政策的支持性立场。 ] 10月15日，中国人民银行开展6000亿元6个月期（182天）买断式逆回购操作，操作方式为固定数量、利 率招标、多重价位中标。此举为10月第二次买断式逆回购操作，旨在保持银行体系流动性充裕，应对潜 在资金面收紧压力。 公开数据显示，10月共有1.3万亿元买断式逆回购到期，其中3个月期8000亿元、6个月期5000亿元。 招联首席研究员董希淼则认为，3个月期与6个月期买断式逆回购的组合，不仅能呵护节后资金面平稳， 更可保障明年元旦前后市场流动性充裕，为跨年金融市场平稳运行奠定基础。同时，由 ...