Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for aluminum: Neutral [9] - Investment rating for alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Investment rating for aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Iran risk continues to ferment, causing significant fluctuations in the non - ferrous metals market. The rise in absolute prices has difficulty in downward transmission, with continuous expansion of spot discounts and accumulation of social inventories. The downstream consumption is weak, and the aluminum price has a demand for callback and repair in the short term. In the long - term, macro factors still drive the price increase [6]. - Indian alumina was traded at FOB $308 per ton for 30,000 tons. The Iran risk has a bearish impact on overseas alumina. In China, although there are many alumina plant overhauls, it is not enough to reverse the oversupply situation. The spot price has not stopped falling, and the cost support is weak [7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On January 29, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,860 yuan/ton, with a change of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was - 200 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 24,690 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed - 50 yuan/ton to - 370 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,810 yuan/ton, with a change of 580 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 29, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 25,430 yuan/ton, closed at 25,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 725 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 25,975 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 25,055 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 1,013,509 lots, and the position was 342,527 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 29, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 782,000 tons, with a change of 5,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 142,705 tons, with a change of - 124 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 497,725 tons, with a change of - 2,250 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 29, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was $308 per ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 29, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,800 yuan/ton, closed at 2,816 yuan/ton, with a change of 46 yuan/ton (1.66%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,853 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,792 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 833,895 lots, and the position was 468,246 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 29, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use primary aluminum was 18,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 19,100 yuan/ton, with a price change of 400 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,000 yuan/ton, with a price change of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 71,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,765 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 335 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral for aluminum, cautiously bearish for alumina, and neutral for aluminum alloy. - Arbitrage strategy: Long aluminum and short aluminum alloy [9]

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-30 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 债市逐渐修复，国债期货大多收涨 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。 ...

日本通胀数据成为压制日元的关键因素之一。日本政府发布的数据显示，1月东京核心消费者物价指数降至1.5%，创下2022年2月以来的最低水平，较此前 的2.0%明显回落。剔除生鲜食品的核心CPI降至2%，剔除生鲜食品与能源价格的指标回落至2.4%，各类通胀指标均呈下行态势，表明需求驱动的价格压力 持续缓解。这一情况降低了日本央行进一步收紧货币政策的紧迫性，此前日本央行已于去年12月将基准利率上调至0.75%，创下30年来新高。 国内政策与政治不确定性进一步削弱日元支撑。日本即将迎来提前选举，相关竞选策略中提及的扩大刺激措施及暂停食品消费税的承诺，引发市场对日本财 政可持续性的担忧，进而影响日元走势。与此同时，美元温和走强为美元兑日元提供支撑，传闻中凯文·沃什或将出任美联储主席的消息，也对美元形成一 定提振，沃什的政策立场被市场视为偏鹰派，可能影响美联储后续利率决策。 周五亚洲交易时段，日元持续走软，推动美元兑日元汇率向154.00关口及100日简单移动平均线附近的关键阻力位靠近。 多重因素限制了日元进一步贬值及美元兑日元的单边上涨。日本财务省与纽约联储先后开展汇率检查，提升了美日联合干预汇市、遏制日元走弱的可能性 ...

若新任美联储主席立场偏向鸽派，市场对年内进一步降息的预期可能迅速升温。对于不具备利息收益属 性的黄金而言，利率下行意味着持有成本下降，从而对金价形成结构性支撑。 德意志银行：在今年美元走软的情境下，黄金达到6000美元是可实现的。若参照过去两年的超额表现， 黄金价格甚至有望向6900美元迈进。 摘要周五(1月30日)亚洲早盘，国际现货黄金跌势不止，刚刚伦敦金失守5160.00美元/盎司关口，伦敦金 价格最新报5155.74美元/盎司，日内跌4.15%；COMEX黄金期货主力最新报5192.10美元/盎司，日内跌 4.04%。从基本面来看，市场焦点正集中于美联储高层人事变动的最新进展。 周五(1月30日)亚洲早盘，国际现货黄金跌势不止，刚刚伦敦金失守5160.00美元/盎司关口，伦敦金价格 最新报5155.74美元/盎司，日内跌4.15%；COMEX黄金期货主力最新报5192.10美元/盎司，日内跌 4.04%。从基本面来看，市场焦点正集中于美联储高层人事变动的最新进展。 【要闻速递】 据市场调查显示，美国总统特朗普计划于周五公布下一任美联储主席人选，并公开表示其人选将"很好 地完成工作"，同时再次强调希望未来 ...

2026.01. 30 本文字数：3472，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 封图 | 左为里德尔，右为沃什 "我选了一位非常棒的人来领导美联储，不会太令人意外，是我候选名单上的其中一人，该候选人在 金融界很有名。"当地时间1月29日晚间，美国总统特朗普在一场活动中被问及何时公布下任美联储 主席人选时表示，将于"明天上午"（即当地时间1月30日上午、北京时间30日晚间）宣布美联储主席 人选。 在特朗普最新表态后，稍早杀出的候选人黑马——贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德尔 （Rick Rieder）在预测市场Polymarket上的提名概率在1月29日一度飙升至46%后回落至10%左右， 而美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的胜率从前一日的约44%飙升至87%。 瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔晓告诉第一财经，沃什属于特朗普喜欢的一类人，适合上电视 发表讲话。在货币政策上，崔晓介绍道，2008年沃什当选美联储理事时，其实非常"鹰派"，很不喜 欢量化宽松（QE）。"他离职后，对美联储政策也是批评颇多，但由于最近非常想获得美联储主席这 个位置，在利率问题上又变得很'鸽派'，甚至称美 ...

"我选了一位非常棒的人来领导美联储，不会太令人意外，是我候选名单上的其中一人，该候选人在金 融界很有名。"当地时间1月29日晚间，美国总统特朗普在一场活动中被问及何时公布下任美联储主席人 选时表示，将于"明天上午"（即当地时间1月30日上午、北京时间30日晚间）宣布美联储主席人选。 在特朗普最新表态后，稍早杀出的候选人黑马——贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder）在预测市场Polymarket上的提名概率在1月29日一度飙升至46%后回落至10%左右，而美联储理 事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的胜率从前一日的约44%飙升至87%。 他还多次警示美国政府的债务风险，认为庞大的债务利息支出正在变得难以为继。因而，美国要实现去 杠杆、降低债务规模，名义GDP增速必须高于债务成本。而要实现这一目标，有两条路径：一是保持较 高的经济增速，二是降低债务成本，但都需要降息。 瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔晓告诉第一财经，沃什属于特朗普喜欢的一类人，适合上电视发 表讲话。在货币政策上，崔晓介绍道，2008年沃什当选美联储理事时，其实非常"鹰派"，很不喜欢量化 宽松（QE）。"他离职后， ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chair is expected to influence the Fed's independence, future policy direction, and investment strategies, with a focus on potential shifts towards a more dovish stance in monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Candidates and Their Perspectives - Kevin Warsh, a leading candidate, is viewed as a "moderate hawk" who emphasizes inflation control as a core responsibility of the Fed, advocating for a strategy of balance sheet reduction combined with cautious interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Rick Rieder, another candidate, has a contrasting view, suggesting that the Fed should shift its focus from controlling inflation to addressing labor market challenges, proposing a more neutral monetary policy stance [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market anticipates that the Fed's independence will not face fundamental threats, but there is a growing expectation for a more dovish approach in future monetary policy, prompting investors to consider non-U.S. assets [2][8]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence have increased due to public pressure from the U.S. government, which could undermine market confidence in U.S. monetary policy and the financial system [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The potential for rising inflation expectations could lead to upward pressure on interest rates, which may negatively impact U.S. stock valuations, particularly in sectors sensitive to discount rate changes [9][10]. - The global economic landscape may see a shift towards fiscal expansion, which could improve overall demand and lead to an increase in long-term interest rates, while the Fed's new chair may face pressure to lower rates further [10][11].

美国总统特朗普宣布将于当地时间1月30日上午揭晓新任美联储主席人选，美媒爆料称，特朗普选择的 人选是美联储前理事凯文·沃什（Jerome Powell）。 据《纽约邮报》1月29日报道，特朗普计划提名沃什接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席。 消息人士告诉该报，特朗普29日会见了沃什，之后致电沃什，询问他是否愿意接受这一职位，沃什欣然 同意。 这些要求匿名的知情人士提醒说，在特朗普正式宣布之前，人选尚未最终确定。 一位知情人士称，沃什曾任美联储理事，他于29日访问了白宫。 鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内被提名为美联储主席，于2018年2月上任，后在拜登政府时期获得提名 连任，其任期将于今年5月15日结束。 报道称，8年前，特朗普在选择鲍威尔之前，曾考虑过沃什担任美联储主席。现年55岁的沃什被认为是 利率鹰派，这能缓解人们对他会在美联储独立性上妥协的担忧。但沃什和特朗普一样，也一直强烈批评 鲍威尔在拜登执政期间过度印钞，从而加剧了通货膨胀。 与此同时，据彭博社1月29日报道，知情人士透露，特朗普政府正准备提名沃什担任下一任美联储主 席。 特朗普当地时间1月29日表示，他计划于30日上午宣布其对美联储主席人选的提名。 沃什是美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD), driven by its safe-haven status and supportive monetary policy from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the CHF/USD exchange rate was 1.3043, reflecting a slight decline of 0.3522% from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date increase of over 2.5% [1]. - The USD/CHF rate fell below 0.7640, marking a 176-month low, highlighting the CHF's strong position in the currency market [1]. - The CHF's performance aligns with historical stability during periods of market turmoil, reinforcing its role as a core safe-haven currency [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The SNB maintained its policy rate at 0% during the December 2025 monetary policy meeting, with expectations to keep it unchanged until at least the second half of 2027 [1][2]. - The SNB's commitment to a stable monetary policy supports key export industries like watchmaking and pharmaceuticals, alleviating pressures from a strong currency [2]. - The SNB retains the option for regular foreign exchange interventions to manage CHF fluctuations, aiming to balance currency strength with economic stability [2][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year rate of 0.1% in December 2025, indicating a controlled inflation environment that aligns with the SNB's policy [2]. - The SNB forecasts average inflation of approximately 0.4% for 2025, and 0.8% for both 2026 and 2027, suggesting no need for aggressive monetary policy adjustments [2]. - The Swiss economy is projected to grow by 1%-1.5% in 2025 and around 1.5% in 2026, supported by rising real wages and a stable job market [3]. Group 4: External Factors and Risks - Global risk sentiment, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, has increased demand for the CHF as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. - The potential for a slowdown in external demand due to rising global economic uncertainties poses a risk to Switzerland's export-driven economy, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors [4][5]. - Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the CHF, expecting it to remain strong amid ongoing safe-haven demand and supportive policies, with potential fluctuations based on external economic conditions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a strong upward trend against the US dollar (USD), supported by the Bank of Canada's (BoC) stable monetary policy and a weakening USD, with a cumulative increase of over 1.4% since the beginning of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The BoC maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, reflecting a cautious stance towards economic uncertainty, with the governor emphasizing the need to monitor various risks [1]. - The inflation rate in Canada is projected to remain close to the target level of 2%, with no need for aggressive monetary policy adjustments, enhancing the attractiveness of CAD assets [2]. - The BoC's neutral policy stance contrasts with the Federal Reserve's (Fed) easing expectations, further supporting the CAD's strength against the USD [2]. Group 2: Commodity Prices and Economic Recovery - CAD's performance is closely linked to global commodity prices, with stable prices providing auxiliary support for the currency, as Canada is a major resource exporter [3]. - The Canadian economy is showing moderate recovery, with a projected growth rate of 1.1% in 2026, which, despite being lower than other developed economies, provides a solid foundation for CAD's strength [3][4]. Group 3: Risks and Market Sentiment - The potential for US trade restrictions poses a structural risk to Canadian economic growth, which could negatively impact CAD if trade tensions escalate [4]. - Despite the current strong position of CAD, factors such as moderate long-term growth and global economic uncertainties may limit its upward potential [4]. - Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic regarding CAD's trajectory, with expectations of a gradual upward movement towards the 0.75 mark against the USD, contingent on external economic factors [5].