Core Viewpoint - Societe Generale predicts that gold will continue to outperform U.S. bonds and the dollar until 2026, maintaining its maximum allocation and advising investors to buy on dips [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Societe Generale has reduced its exposure to U.S. inflation-linked bonds to zero and halved its corporate bond holdings to 5%, while maintaining a 10% allocation to gold in multi-asset portfolios [1] - The bank's analysts suggest that retail investors are diversifying their assets by entering the gold market through bullion, coins, and ETFs, recommending buying on dips due to central banks continuing to diversify away from dollar assets [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by anticipated aggressive and dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] - The bank forecasts that inflation pressures will ease next year, but acknowledges increasing risks in the U.S. labor market [1] - Societe Generale's economists predict a further 50 basis points cut in the federal funds rate by April next year, aligning with current market expectations, which would support a gradual easing of financial conditions [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The current real federal funds rate remains relatively restrictive, despite a recent drop from 5.5% to 4%, indicating that inflation-adjusted monetary conditions are still tight [1] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, combined with the political necessity to control food prices ahead of midterm elections, is expected to serve as a strong anchor for policy rates until 2026 [1] - The correlation between the U.S. stock market and bond market remains higher than historical norms, enhancing gold's value as a diversification tool in investment portfolios [1]

要知道，这可是今年第三次降息，也是反对声音最大的一次。 从鸽到鹰，一场基层调研改变的立场 Goolsbee以前可不是这样的。 前两年他还在呼吁早点降息，生怕经济扛不住。 文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 芝加哥联储行长Goolsbee这周投了反对票，美联储还是宣布降息了。 这个结果不意外，但两张反对票的出现，让美联储内部的矛盾彻底摆到了台面上。 转折点出现在上个月，他跑了趟芝加哥郊区的工厂和超市。 跟企业主聊天时，好几个老板都在抱怨原材料涨价，说"进价降不下来，零售价只能跟着涨"。 消费者更直接，有人拿着购物小票说"这价格跟去年比，没觉得降多少"。 这些话让他开始怀疑，之前觉得通胀快到2%的想法是不是太乐观了。 关税这事也让他改变了看法。 本来以为特朗普政府加的关税只是暂时的，现在看来不是那么回事。 新关税都覆盖到老百姓日常买的东西了，衣服、家电这些，价格直接就上去了。 Goolsbee私下跟朋友说，原来觉得关税影响不大，现在发现这风险可能要拖很久。 两张反对票背后的美联储裂痕 不光Goolsbee，堪萨斯城联储的Schmid也投了反对票。 这俩人凑一块儿，形成了个小联盟。 他们觉得现在降息根本没依据，政府关门那 ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - Standard Chartered expects the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to maintain an accommodative monetary policy [1] - PBOC is projected to potentially cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 25 basis points (0.25%) in Q1 2026 [1] - A potential 10 basis points (0.1%) reduction in the 7-day reverse repo rate is anticipated in Q2 2026 [1] - The central bank is expected to inject sufficient liquidity to absorb large-scale government bond supply [1] - Structural re-lending tools will be utilized to support key sectors [1] - The central bank is expected to steadily increase its holdings of government bonds [1] RRR and Bond Yield Forecast - The RRR for large banks is expected to remain at 7.25% [1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to trend downwards [1] - Year-end forecast for the 10-year government bond yield is 1.30% [1]

金融市场对此尚未形成共识。截至12月16日，货币市场定价显示，澳洲联储在2026年2月维持利率不变 的概率为74%，首次完整加息25个基点的预期时间推迟至2026年8月。这种投行与市场之间的显著脱 节，凸显各方对澳洲通胀前景与政策路径判断存在深度分歧。 这一预期转变的背景，源于澳洲联储在12月9日议息会议上的表态。尽管当次会议全票决定维持利率于 3.60%不变，但澳洲联储明确指出"近期数据显示通胀风险已转向上行"，并强调评估通胀压力的持续性 仍需更多时间。澳洲联储主席米歇尔·布洛克（Michele Bullock）在会后新闻发布会上多次表示，降息不 在近期考虑之中，并称"如果通胀持续居高不下，可能需要考虑加息"。 新华财经北京12月16日电澳大利亚联邦银行（CBA）与澳大利亚国民银行（NAB）于12月16日分别发 布最新货币政策展望，均预计澳洲联储（RBA）将于2026年2月启动新一轮加息周期，以应对持续存在 的通胀压力。此举标志着市场对澳洲货币政策预期的重大转变。 根据CBA经济学家贝琳达·艾伦（Belinda Allen）的分析，该行目前基准预测为2026年加息一次，将现金 利率从当前的3.60%上调至3 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and short-term Treasury bond purchases have led to cautious investor sentiment regarding the high valuations in the AI sector, while optimism remains about the rate cut's potential to boost the real economy [1] - Funds have been flowing out of high-valuation tech stocks into interest rate-sensitive sectors such as financials and industrials, resulting in a mixed performance among the three major U.S. stock indices last week [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 1% for the week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell approximately 0.6% and over 1.6%, respectively [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals market, the combination of the Fed's rate cut and balance sheet expansion has driven down U.S. Treasury yields and weakened the dollar, resulting in an approximate 2% increase in international gold prices last week [3] - Silver prices reached new highs last week, supported by supply shortages, tight inventories, and surging industrial demand, despite a significant drop of about 4% on Friday [3] - Overall, silver prices increased by 5% for the week [3] Group 3 - In the crude oil futures market, investor focus was on the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with some investors reducing positions in anticipation of Russian oil returning to the international market, leading to a significant decline in international oil prices last week [5] - The price of the main NYMEX crude oil futures contract fell by 4.39%, while the main Brent crude oil futures contract dropped by 4.13% [5] Group 4 - This week, central banks in several developed economies, including the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are expected to announce their latest interest rate decisions, with the Bank of England likely to cut rates by 25 basis points due to weaker-than-expected economic growth [7] - In the Eurozone, persistent service sector inflation above the ECB's target is leading traders to expect the ECB to maintain its current policy stance, with some institutions predicting no rate cuts next year and even a possibility of rate hikes [7] - The market anticipates a divergence in monetary policy paths among developed economies, with the Fed potentially cutting rates one to two times next year, while other central banks may tighten their policies [7] Group 5 - The U.S. is set to release its first non-farm payroll report and November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data since the end of the government shutdown, with expectations of increased job numbers due to the end of the shutdown [9] - The CPI is projected to rebound to a year-on-year increase of 3.1% due to tariff policies, which may influence the Fed's monetary policy path for the coming year [9]

美联储重量级官员称货币政策已为明年做好充分准备，经济增速料将加快。市场等待周二非农就业数据 公布。 隔夜要点 l 美国华尔街股市周一收跌，投资者为本周晚些时候的一系列经济数据做准备，同时评估有关美联储主 席候选人的报导和政策制定者发言。美元兑日圆走低，本周央行决策和美国数据密集，可能会对美联储 的近期政策前景产生影响。油价下跌，投资者评估美国与委内瑞拉紧张局势升级造成的干扰、供应过剩 担忧以及俄罗斯与乌克兰潜在和平协议的影响。现货金回吐盘中涨幅收平，此前美国官员与乌克兰总统 泽连斯基旨在结束战争的重要会谈取得进展。 | 股市指数 | 收报 | | 日变动% 年初至今变动% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23057.41 | (0.59) | 19.40 | | 标普500指数 | 6816.51 | (0.16) | 15.89 | | 道琼斯工业均指 | 48416.56 | (0.09) | 13.80 | | 恒生指数 | 25628.88 | (1.34) | 27.76 | | 上证综指 | 3867.92 | (0.55) | 15.40 | | 利 ...

谈到劳动力市场，米兰表示："经验表明，劳动力市场恶化可能发生得很快，而且是非线性的，并且难 以逆转。""部分原因是货币政策存在几个季度的滞后效应，因此，正如我所主张的，更快地放松政策将 适当地使我们更接近中性立场。" 今日周二(12月16日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于14768一线下方，今日开盘于14944元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报14690元/千克，下跌0.14%，最高触及14957元/千克，最低下探14659元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 美联储理事米兰再次表示，美联储的政策立场对经济而言过于紧缩，他指出通胀前景良好，而劳动力市 场出现了一些预警信号。 米兰表示，他预计随着租金涨幅从新冠疫情期间的峰值回落至正常水平，住房通胀将会缓解。他认为， 由于劳动力市场降温，服务业通胀不太可能面临上行压力。一些服务业通胀的驱动因素，例如投资组合 管理费，反映的是统计上的异常现象，而不是消费者实际感受到的价格变化。 【要闻速递】 另外，美联储理事米兰表示，他很可能在明年1月底任期届满后继续留任，直到新任理事获得确认填补 他的空缺。米兰计划继续留在理事会之际，正值特朗普考虑人选以接替将于5 ...

Source: Nomura Source: FRB, Bloomberg, Nomura A divided Fed Policy Watch Global Markets Research Economics - North America December FOMC Recap Fig. 2: The FOMC announced reserve management purchases would begin in December, with the NY Fed indicating an initial pace of $40bn per month Nomura's monetary policy outlook | Tool | Key assumptions | | --- | --- | | Policy rate | | | 2026 | Two 25bp cuts in June and September, EOP | | 3.125% | | | Terminal | 3.00 - 3.25% | | Balance sheet policy | | | | Reserve-ma ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-16 加工费谈判仍在拉锯中 铜价暂陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-15，沪铜主力合约开于 93500元/吨，收于 92400元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.79%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 93,500元/吨，收于 92,250 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.01%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价贴水30至升水150元/吨，均价升水60元/吨，较前一日上涨80元。现货价 格区间为92070-92460元/吨。今日为当月合约2512的最后交易日，报价继续沿用当月合约标准。盘面主力合约基本 运行于92090-92330元/吨，次月2601合约区间为92200-92510元/吨，跨月价差在C200至C100之间。由于最后交易日 与年度长单基本结束重叠，市场交易情绪整体平淡，贸易活跃度下降。尽管铜价日内下跌近千元，但绝对价格仍 高于92000元/吨，下游采购意愿较弱。持货商早间对次月报价平水铜贴水100元/吨、好铜贴水50元/吨左右，午后进 一步走扩至贴水130元和80元。今日，上海地区库存仅小幅累积，反映国产与进口补 ...

与此同时，美联储官员近期的表态也受到关注。美联储理事米兰在12月15日表示，他认为当前货币政策立场过于紧缩，应加快降息步伐。同日，纽约联储主 席威廉姆斯称，随着就业市场降温，通胀有望趋于缓和，货币政策已向中性方向推进。波士顿联储主席柯林斯则通过社交媒体表示，支持上周降息25个基点 的决定，但这是一个"艰难的决定"。 12月16日，亚太地区主要股指普遍走低。日经225指数盘中跌幅一度超过1%，韩国综合指数亦出现明显下跌。澳洲标普200指数及富时新加坡海峡指数同步 下挫。 市场关注焦点集中在主要央行的货币政策动向。日本央行周一发布的报告显示，尽管美国加征关税，但企业薪资增长势头依然强劲。日本央行行长植田和男 此前表示，将积极收集薪资数据，为本周的议息会议决策提供依据。市场普遍预计，日本央行可能在此次会议上决定加息。 （市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。） 来源：市场资讯 ...