【近期秘鲁重要铜矿事故令全球铜供应链雪上加霜！】国内铜精矿紧缺矛盾凸显，TC价格费预计下 降，冶炼厂检修压力增大。不仅铜精矿资源紧俏，再生铜供应也紧张，部分地区出现再生铜与电解铜价 格倒挂，下游企业改采电解铜，加剧国内电解铜供需不平衡。美国市场虹吸效应仍存，跨大西洋套利持 续。国内终端需求旺季，一季度铜材产量近年最高，4月产量环比3月预计增加，国内铜社库连续9周去 库，下游企业节前备货积极，支撑现货价格。宏观层面，白宫关税释放缓和信号，美股止跌反弹，利多 铜价。沪铜短期上方压力区间在77000-78000元/吨附近，下方支撑区间在75000-76000元/吨附近。关税 脉冲影响市场，锌价波动整理。锌价受海外矿端事件推动的情绪支持力减弱，进口到货致现货库存止跌 回升，本周进口加工费继续略有上行，现货升水在价格回升后下滑。锌下跌中继休整后延续下探，近月 偏强结构因进口窗口打开或有缓和，下方支撑21600-22000，短线注意22800-23000压力，趋势逢高偏 空。盘面横盘整理。电解铝供给宽松，需求板块分化明显，建议短线波段操作，少量逢低试多，关注宏 观及板块共振影响。沪铝05合约上方压力区间20200-205 ...

（一）主要产品的价格变动情况 证券代码：600328 证券简称：中盐化工 公告编号：（临）2025-034 中盐内蒙古化工股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 中盐内蒙古化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证 券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第七号-医药》《上市公司行 业信息披露指引第十八号-化工》及《关于做好上市公司 2025 年第一 季度报告披露工作的通知》要求，现将公司 2025 年第一季度主要经 营数据披露如下： | 主要行业 | 主要产品 | 2025 年第 | 2025 年第 | 营业收入（万 元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 一季度产量 | 一季度销量 | | | 精细化工行业 | 金属钠、氯酸钠 （万吨） | 3.40 | 3.29 | 21,343.68 | | 基础化工行业 | 纯碱（万吨） | 104.39 | 95.02 | 121,025.87 | | | 聚氯乙烯树脂 ...

Report Information - Report Date: April 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The industrial silicon futures market is in a weak position with the main contract price breaking through support levels. The spot price continues to decline slightly. The market is mainly driven by its commodity attributes due to low macro - policy attention. The fundamentals have remained weak since early April, with high supply, decreasing demand, and high inventory. The imbalance between supply and demand has not reversed, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term without room for a rebound [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance - The main contract price of industrial silicon futures (Si2505) closed at 9,785 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The trading volume was 122,687 lots, and the open interest was 220,162 lots, with a net decrease of 9,139 lots [4] 3.2. Spot Price - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline slightly. The price of 553 in Sichuan and Yunnan was 9,600 yuan/ton. The price of 421 in Sichuan was 10,850 yuan/ton, 10,350 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 10,400 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, and 10,900 yuan/ton in Xinjiang [4] 3.3. Market Outlook - Since the end of March, the industrial silicon market has been mainly driven by its commodity attributes. From early April to now, the fundamentals have remained weak. The minimum weekly output for supply - demand balance should be 63,000 tons, but the current weekly output is around 72,000 tons. The monthly demand is decreasing, with polysilicon production stable but most enterprises reducing production, and organic silicon enterprises collectively cutting production to support prices, resulting in monthly demand shrinking to about 100,000 tons. High inventory is also a major factor suppressing the rebound. As of the third week of April, the inventory was 756,455 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased to 2.44. The imbalance between supply and demand has not significantly reversed, and improvement depends on the negative feedback of losses on the supply side. The decline in spot prices has opened up downward space for the futures market, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [5] 3.4. Market News - On April 21, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 70,215 lots, a net decrease of 146 lots from the previous trading day. In the third week of April, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 73,030 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.68%. The inventory in the third week of April was 407,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 116.28% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to a combination of increased supply and reduced demand, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price fluctuated from 9945 CNY/ton to 9785 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 1.61% [1]. - The national average price is 10676 CNY/ton, down by 135 CNY/ton [1]. - Specific prices for different grades are as follows: 553 at 10002 CNY/ton, 441 at 10471 CNY/ton, and 421 at 10875 CNY/ton [1]. - Regional prices include Xinjiang at 10133 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 10883 CNY/ton, Fujian at 15640 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 11000 CNY/ton [1]. - FOB prices remain stable [1]. Market Dynamics - The industrial silicon market is seeing weak transactions, with downstream purchases primarily driven by immediate needs [1]. - Supply remains stable with minimal changes in national production, except for major northern manufacturers resuming operations as planned [1]. - There is no significant willingness for other manufacturers to resume production, leading to an overall increase in supply [1]. - Demand is expected to decrease due to the implementation of production cuts by organic silicon monomer plants, which may further reduce demand for industrial silicon [1][2]. - The production of polysilicon remains stable, maintaining demand for industrial silicon, while aluminum alloy manufacturers are purchasing based on their needs [1]. Future Outlook - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is anticipated to decrease, indicating no significant improvement in the supply-demand fundamentals [2]. - Inventory pressure remains high, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a bottom range [2].

2025 年 03 月 13 日 中银航空租赁 (02588) ——滞俄飞机减计影响出清，交付掣肘与降息放缓成关键 变量 上 市 公 司 非银金融 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 61.85 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8640.61 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 70.25/53.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 429.25 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 694.01 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0832 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -3% 17% 37% 57% HSCEI 中银航空租赁 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 金黎丹 A0230123060002 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 金黎丹 (8621)23297818× jinld@swsresearch.com 事件：3 月 13 日，中银航空租赁披露 2024 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend due to supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping below 10,000 yuan per ton and reaching a recent low of 9,975 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.84% decrease [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is facing an increase in production as major enterprises resume operations after maintenance, leading to rising supply pressure [1] - Demand remains weak, with organic silicon manufacturers implementing maintenance and production cuts, while polysilicon producers are operating at 30-40% capacity, limiting demand growth for industrial silicon [1][2] - Overall demand for industrial silicon has not shown significant growth, providing limited support for prices [1] Inventory and Cost Factors - Inventory levels are high, exceeding 900,000 tons, with expectations of continued accumulation due to increased supply and stagnant demand, which exerts downward pressure on prices [2] - The cost of raw materials, such as silicon coal, has decreased, reducing the cost support for industrial silicon, leading to potential losses for producers in the southwest region [2] - Despite the current price drop, which has breached some companies' cost lines, the potential for further significant declines is limited, with prices expected to remain within a low range in the short term [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of USD 2.56 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit of USD 924 million, up 21% year-on-year, marking a historical high [5] - The core net profit, excluding the impact of the write-down of Russian aircraft, was USD 633 million, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase [5] - The company faces challenges in aircraft delivery due to supply chain issues, which may affect core rental income [6] - The aviation industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with a projected CAGR of 5.1% for passenger demand in the Asia-Pacific region over the next 20 years, significantly higher than North America and Europe [6] - The company benefits from a young fleet and a high remaining lease term, which positions it well to capitalize on the growth in the Asia-Pacific aviation market [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenues to grow from USD 2.56 billion in 2024 to USD 2.82 billion by 2027, with net profits projected to decline to USD 671 million in 2025 before recovering to USD 754 million by 2027 [6][7] - The financial forecast includes a decrease in net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 due to anticipated delivery issues and rising funding costs [6] - The company’s net asset return is expected to remain stable, with a projected return on equity of around 10.2% from 2025 to 2027 [6] Company Insights - The company has a fleet of 709 aircraft, with 445 owned, achieving a utilization rate of over 99% [6] - The average age of the fleet is 5.0 years, significantly younger than the global average of 15 years, which enhances its competitive position [6] - The company sold 29 aircraft in 2024 and signed 118 new lease commitments, indicating active fleet management [6] - The company’s order book stands at 232 aircraft, reflecting strong demand despite delivery challenges [6]