Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 7.08% as of July 6, 2025, up from 6.00% on June 29, marking an increase of 1.08%[2] - Domestic flight executions increased to 14,400 flights in the first five days of July, a year-on-year increase of 3%[8] - The operating rate of asphalt plants rose to 32.7% as of July 9, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%[15] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a year-on-year increase of 1% as of July 6, down from 3% previously, and June's total was 15%[8] - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first 11 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June[3] - The land premium rate fell to 4.88% as of July 6, down from 5.47% in June[9] Price Movements - Resource prices continued to rise, with Shanxi thermal coal prices increasing by 1.4%, and rebar prices in Shanghai rising by 1.9%[46] - The national average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.3% as of June 30, with first-tier cities down by 0.2%[47] - The overall price index for agricultural products rose, with vegetable prices increasing by 1.8% and fruit prices by 2.1%[46] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance accelerated, with 2.39 trillion yuan issued this year, achieving 54.3% of the annual target, compared to 39.3% last year[54] - As of July 11, 2025, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were 1.3702%, 1.5292%, and 1.6653%, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.4bps, 3.63bps, and 2.2bps from the previous week[67]

德国30年期债券收益率升至3.254%，为2023年10月以来的最高水平。 ...

7月14日消息，日本20年期政府债券收益率升至2000年以来最高水平。 ...

7月14日消息，日本30年期债券收益率上升7个基点至3.11%。 ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment - The positive impact of short positions and sentiment in the US stock market may have largely passed, with fundamentals expected to become the main driver across asset classes in the second half of the year [2][4] - Market sentiment indicators are slightly above long-term averages, indicating a shift towards optimism [2] Group 2: Macro Research Focus - Goldman Sachs has lowered its US Treasury yield expectations, now forecasting 2-year and 10-year yields to reach 3.45% and 4.20% respectively by year-end, indicating a slight steepening of the yield curve [4] - The firm has raised its forward P/E ratio expectations for the S&P 500 from 20.4x to 22x, increasing target levels for the index to 6400, 6600, and 6900 for 3, 6, and 12 months respectively [4][5] Group 3: Tax and Trade Implications - The anticipated increase in tariffs, including a 25% tariff on copper, is expected to add to the already projected 14 percentage point rise in effective US tariff rates this year [5][6] - Ongoing tariff negotiations may create uncertainty for US businesses and foreign investors, contributing to expectations of a weaker dollar [6][7] Group 4: Global Economic Impact - The implementation of tariffs is expected to suppress export growth for US trading partners, with an estimated overall export decline of 4%-5% for major economies [12] - The anticipated effects of tariffs and currency fluctuations may lead to a 1%-5% decline in industrial production and a 1-4 percentage point drop in manufacturing PMI in the coming months [12][13]

Investment Rating for the Reported Industry - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 4, the heavy - position strategy for secondary capital bonds has significantly recovered, with the weekly returns of the bullet - type and industrial ultra - long - term strategies for secondary bonds approaching their highest levels in the past three months[2][12]. - The average return of the heavy - position strategy for ultra - long - term bonds has rebounded by about 38bp, and the cumulative returns of the industrial and secondary ultra - long - term strategies in the second quarter were lower than that of the urban investment ultra - long - term strategy, but this week's returns are almost at the highest level in the past three months[2][12]. - The duration of general commercial financial bonds has rapidly lengthened from 2.1 years last week to 3.3 years this week, approaching the historical high[3][14]. - As of July 7, 2025, compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bonds have all declined, with short - term varieties experiencing a larger decline in returns. Real - estate bond yields also mainly declined, especially private - enterprise bonds within 2 years[4][18]. - The activity of ultra - long - term credit bonds has basically remained stable, with high trading enthusiasm this week. The weekly trading volume of industrial bonds with a term of 7 years and above is basically the same as last week, and the weekly trading volume of urban investment bonds with a term of 7 - 10 years has returned to over 100 transactions[5][22]. - In July, the supply rhythm of local government bonds in each province has accelerated. For example, the planned issuance scale of Hunan and Sichuan is over 10 billion. Local government bonds have high coupon rates and long - term configuration value in the current low - interest - rate environment[6][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantified Credit Strategy - As of July 4, the heavy - position strategy for secondary capital bonds has significantly recovered, with the average return of the credit - style secondary capital bond heavy - position portfolio rising by 28bp to around 0.27%. The ultra - long - term strategy's excess return has rebounded to the level in early June, and the duration strategy has rotated from urban investment bonds to industrial and secondary bonds[2][12]. Variety Duration Tracking - As of July 4, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 2.27 years and 3.27 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.28 years, 3.73 years, and 3.27 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.52 years, 1.69 years, 3.33 years, and 1.37 years respectively[3][14]. Coupon Asset Heat Map - As of July 7, 2025, compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bonds have declined, with short - term private - enterprise non - perpetual bonds showing significant declines (19.6BP for 1 - 2 - year public bonds and 14.2BP for private bonds within 1 year). Real - estate bond yields also declined, and private - enterprise bonds within 2 years were more popular. Among financial bonds, the yield decline of commercial financial bonds was within 8BP, and 1 - 2 - year varieties performed better. Short - duration bank sub - bonds had a strong performance, with the yield of 1 - year joint - stock bank's perpetual and secondary bonds declining by nearly 13BP[4][18]. Ultra - long - term Credit Bond Micro - tracking - The activity of ultra - long - term credit bonds has basically remained stable. The weekly trading volume of industrial bonds with a term of 7 years and above is basically the same as last week, and the weekly trading volume of urban investment bonds with a term of 7 - 10 years has returned to over 100 transactions. The spread between the weekly average trading return of industrial bonds with a term of 7 years and above and the 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds has narrowed to about 25BP, lower than the lowest value in the long - bond market at the beginning of this year[5][22]. Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking - In July, the supply rhythm of local government bonds in each province has accelerated. Hunan and Sichuan plan to issue over 10 billion each. Many provinces have issued new special bonds to support infrastructure, land storage, and payment of corporate accounts payable. The accelerated supply of local government bonds echoes the policy of front - loading fiscal efforts, fulfilling the dual tasks of stabilizing growth and debt reduction, and highlighting the high - coupon and long - duration configuration value in the current low - interest - rate environment[6][25].

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury prices experienced a slight decline ahead of the issuance of 30-year bonds and employment data, leading to the largest weekly gain being narrowed [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 1 basis point to 4.34%, recovering slightly from a 7 basis point drop due to strong demand for bond issuance [1] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue $22 billion in 30-year bonds, contributing to a slight increase in long-term bond yields [1] Group 2 - Investors are focusing on fiscal policy, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that the recent tax reform will increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade [1] - The borrowing costs for the UK government have also risen due to concerns about the need to issue more bonds to cover expenditures [1] - In Japan, bond yields surged by 20 basis points earlier in the week amid fears that politicians would loosen fiscal policy to gain voter support ahead of elections [1] Group 3 - Upcoming U.S. employment data is a key focus, with economists predicting a slight increase in initial jobless claims to 235,000 for the week ending July 5 [2] - Weekly initial jobless claims are seen as crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction [2] - Swap trading indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this month and potentially lower them twice by 25 basis points each before the end of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand's bond yields continue to rise as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintains its interest rates unchanged [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to keep the official cash rate steady, which has implications for the bond market [1] - Rising bond yields indicate market expectations of future interest rate hikes or inflation concerns [1] - The decision to maintain rates reflects the central bank's assessment of the current economic conditions and inflation targets [1]

Group 1 - Concerns over Japan potentially increasing bond issuance have impacted the global long-term bond market, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices [1][2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.42%, marking the longest rising cycle since April [1] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, while Japanese and German 30-year bond yields are also reaching significant levels [1][2] Group 2 - The global long-term bond market is facing turmoil as traditional buyers exit the market amid increasing bond supply, particularly affecting the UK and Japan [4] - Japanese long-term bonds have seen significant price drops, with the 30-year bond yield exceeding 3%, nearing historical highs [4] - Major Japanese life insurance companies, traditionally significant buyers of long-term bonds, are avoiding such securities due to rising interest rates and supply pressures [4] Group 3 - In the U.S., budget deficit concerns are bringing bond supply back into focus, with upcoming auctions for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries [5] - Recent strong economic data has diminished expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting U.S. Treasury performance [5] - The swap market now indicates two potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, contrasting with earlier expectations of three cuts [5]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock Investment Institute upgraded the rating of European government bonds from slightly underweight to neutral, citing the attractiveness of eurozone bonds compared to U.S. Treasuries [1] Group 1: Investment Outlook - The institute believes that eurozone government bonds and credit markets offer more attractive yields than U.S. bonds [1] - The increase in term premium has brought yields closer to the institute's expected levels [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Persistent inflation in the U.S. prevents the Federal Reserve from significantly lowering interest rates [1] - The large scale of the U.S. fiscal deficit may lead investors to demand higher returns for holding long-term U.S. Treasuries [1] Group 3: Regional Preferences - Within the eurozone, BlackRock favors bonds from non-core members such as Italy and Spain [1]