Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant drop in gold prices, with the London gold index falling below 3230 points, marking a daily decline of 3% [1] - Gold jewelry brands have adjusted their prices, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1007 CNY per gram, down 14 CNY from the previous day's price of 1021 CNY per gram [3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 6% following the announcement of the Sino-US Geneva trade talks, indicating a positive market reaction [6] Group 2 - The A-share market saw all major indices close higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.82% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.72% [9] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.3084 trillion CNY, an increase of 116.4 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day [9] - The precious metals sector experienced a decline, contrasting with the overall positive performance of other industry sectors [9]

5 月，观望期：出口链修复，不宜过度乐观 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 关税缓和预期持续定价，风险偏好回升短期有较强的天花板效应。下一阶段，最大的 隐含风险在于美国通胀压力飙升，美联储降息预期落空对权益资产形成二次冲击。 ❑ 过去一周市场交易主线是什么？ 关税缓和，美降息预期下修。市场过去一周核心交易关税预期缓和下的风险偏好 回暖，对于降息等政策也提前有所定价。其中，出口链对应的机械、汽车、家电 持续走强，TMT 板块也有所修复。需要注意的是，降息落地后行情上行动力明 显减弱，短期无利好催化预期，且在逆全球化大框架下，风险偏好天花板较低。 此外，对美出口持续下行，义乌小商品出口价格指数大幅飙升，美国输入性通胀 逻辑持续演绎，5 月美国通胀数据超预期飙升仍将是接下来最大风险点。 ❑ 如何理解公募新规对行情的事件性冲击？ 3 万亿公募持仓再平衡不容小觑。公募新规后，由于监管对业绩比较基准较为看 重，未来主动权益基金可能逐步变为类指数增强产品，不会相对基准有过大偏 移。那么，目前公募相较市场超配较多的行业面临持续卖出压力，而低配较多的 行业则有资金回补需求。截至 5 月 8 日，目前市场低配较多的行业包括非银、银 行 ...

『产品运作』 内需板块占比提升 Q：泉果消费机遇整体运作情况如何？ 孙伟： 北京大学经济学学士、金融学硕士，14年证券从业经验，8年投资管理经验。目前管理产品为泉果消费机遇混合型证券投资基金（以下简称"泉果消费机 遇"，代码：022223）。 前言： 经历了2025年4月美国"对等关税"风波引发的市场剧烈震荡后，在出口等外需方面持续博弈承压的背景下，强化内循环、扩容内需消费市场的重要性愈发凸 显。在提振内需的政策预期下，消费板块是否有望迎来新行情？当下消费行业有哪些新变化？ 让我们一起回顾2025年一季度泉果消费机遇的产品运作，听听基金经理孙伟如何看待关税冲击下，大消费板块的投资机遇。 泉果消费机遇成立于2024年9月27日，考虑到基金成立时间还不长，以及经济复苏进程和国际形势的复杂，本季度股票仓位并没有明显上升。截至2025年3月 31日，泉果消费机遇组合股票仓位占基金资产净值的72.86%，基本与上季度末持平，其中港股占基金资产净值比例为15.83%。 具体到行业层面，消费中内需板块的占比有所提升，比如整车、啤酒、医药等子行业，原有的互联网、高端制造业以及部分新质生产力的方向基本维持此前 的配置，同时还布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to adapt investment strategies in response to changing global trade dynamics, focusing on domestic consumption and sectors less affected by international trade tensions [2][24]. Group 1: Non-Export Industries - Non-export industries are characterized by having a complete domestic supply chain, with products or services produced and consumed within the country, making them less directly impacted by tariff changes [5][6]. - Key sectors include finance, real estate, public utilities, and transportation, which are expected to benefit from stable domestic demand despite external pressures [6][7]. Group 2: Domestic Demand-Related Industries - There is significant potential for growth in domestic demand-related industries, such as food and beverage, tourism, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals, driven by government policies aimed at boosting internal consumption [8][10]. - The World Bank reports that in 2023, China's final consumption expenditure accounted for 55.6% of GDP, which is 17.4 percentage points lower than the global average, indicating room for growth [8]. Group 3: Rare Earth and Military Industries - The rare earth sector is crucial for military applications and has a significant strategic advantage, as China controls 49% of global rare earth reserves and 90% of refining capacity, making it a key player in global supply chains [14][16]. - Military strength is seen as essential for protecting economic interests, with the military-industrial complex being a focus for investment [16][17]. Group 4: Self-Sufficiency and Control - The emphasis on self-sufficiency highlights the importance of mastering core technologies across various sectors, particularly in semiconductors, high-end chips, and industrial machinery, to mitigate external dependencies [19][20]. - Recent advancements in domestic technology, such as breakthroughs in semiconductor equipment, underscore the urgency of achieving technological independence [19][20]. Group 5: Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is identified as a critical area for future competition between major powers, with the potential to transform various industries and drive economic growth [21][23]. - China's advantages in AI include a large internet user base and a strong talent pool, positioning it well for advancements in this field [23].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "sideways" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "sideways" [2] Group 2: Core Views - A-share market rose significantly yesterday, with the Wind All A index up 1.83% and turnover reaching 1.36 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The market focus has shifted from overseas to domestic demand. Although the decline in A-share market revenue growth has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, it is still below the policy rate. The net profit in Q1 increased by about 4% year-on-year, but ROE is still at the bottoming stage. The index has limited short-term upward momentum. The Politburo meeting in April did not introduce significantly unexpected policies, and fiscal measures to boost domestic demand remain the main focus. In Q1 2025, China's general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 4.2%, indicating an active fiscal policy. The issuance progress of general treasury bonds reached 30%, with a significantly earlier rhythm. Overseas, the essence of the US tariff policy is to relieve the pressure of insufficient capital account surplus by reducing the current account deficit, which is difficult to solve in the short term. The tariff policy is a means rather than an end, and its real purpose is to reshape the global trade pattern through point-to-point negotiations. During the negotiation process between other economies and the US, the US tariff policy on China may become a bargaining chip, and China's exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea may be marginally affected on the demand side. This policy also has a long-term impact on the A-share market, and China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the logic of central fiscal promotion of consumption more reasonable. Consumption and dividend themes may be relatively dominant for a long time this year, and technology themes can focus on sub - sectors such as domestic substitution and high capital expenditure [1] - Treasury bond futures closed with the 30 - year main contract up 0.11%, the 5 - year main contract down 0.04%, the 2 - year main contract down 0.06%, and the 10 - year main contract basically stable. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.5%. There were 1.087 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively balanced, with the DR001 rate down 7bp to 1.71% and the DR007 rate down 7bp to 1.73%. The current bond market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors. Monetary policy mainly relies on structural policy tools, and the need for short - term interest rate cuts is low. The bond market has priced in the weakening of the fundamentals and interest rate cut expectations in advance, and there is insufficient downward momentum for treasury bond yields. In the short term, it is expected to move sideways [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Changes in the Second Quarter - For stock index futures, the IH rose from 2,609.2 to 2,629.6, an increase of 0.78%; the IF rose from 3,716.2 to 3,766.2, an increase of 1.35%; the IC rose from 5,497.0 to 5,622.0, an increase of 2.27%; the IM rose from 5,801.4 to 5,953.2, an increase of 2.62% [3] - For stock indices, the SSE 50 rose from 2,633.2 to 2,647.7, an increase of 0.55%; the SSE 300 rose from 3,770.6 to 3,808.5, an increase of 1.01%; the CSI 500 rose from 5,631.8 to 5,740.3, an increase of 1.93%; the CSI 1000 rose from 5,950.1 to 6,102.9, an increase of 2.57% [3] - For treasury bond futures, the TS fell from 102.37 to 102.31, a decrease of 0.06%; the TF fell from 106.10 to 106.06, a decrease of 0.04%; the T rose from 109.00 to 109.05, an increase of 0.04%; the TL rose from 120.76 to 120.97, an increase of 0.17% [3] 2. Market News - On May 6, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian stated at a regular press conference that the tariff war was initiated by the US, and China's attitude is consistent and clear: ready to fight to the end if the US wants to fight, and the door for negotiation is always open. Lin Jian emphasized that the US has recently expressed its hope to negotiate with China, and there are no winners in tariff and trade wars. If the US really wants to solve problems through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and pressuring and conduct dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [4] 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of their corresponding basis [6][7][8][9][10] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the historical price trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical trends of treasury bond spot yields, the historical trends of basis for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the historical trends of inter - delivery spreads for different - term treasury bond futures, the historical trends of cross - variety spreads, and the historical trends of capital interest rates [13][15][16][17] 3.3 Exchange Rates - The report provides the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, the euro against the US dollar, the British pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [20][21][22][24][25] 4. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [27] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, research on key industry sectors, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [27]

可选消费ETF(562580)紧密跟踪中证全指可选消费指数，前五大成分股囊括美的集团、比亚迪、格力电 器、海尔智家等消费龙头，汽车和家电占比合计超78%。随着国民经济持续向好发展，我国消费者人均 可支配收入不断上升，消费支出从食品、服装等向交通、医疗、消费电子等方向转变，可选消费板块投 资价值凸显。 在应对国际重大挑战之际，内循环成为驱动我国经济平稳增长的重要压舱石，顺周期板块有望低位复 苏，从而释放业绩弹性，食品饮料、旅游等板块受益。中期看，2025年，稳消费、稳民生被写入今年经 济社会发展总体要求中，并把"全方位扩大国内需求"作为今年十个方面工作任务中的第一条，新一轮供 给侧结构性改革或开启，为价格提供修复动力，今年政府工作报告提出"加强产业统筹布局和产能监测 预警，促进产业有序发展和良性竞争"、"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"。消费板块在过往几年的回调后，"低 预期低估值"+"消费韧性特征下的企稳趋势"将提升消费配置的资金偏好。 东方证券指出，展望五月，尽管外部贸易摩擦仍存在不确定性，但中国资产依然是更有性价比的资产， 经济基本面的韧性也就意味着市场不会互现出现大幅波动，市场震荡上行格局没有发生改变，内需构建 ...

Group 1 - The market primarily consists of stock players who do not engage in learning stock trading strategies, leading to mutual frustration among index players [1] - The performance of individual stocks is irrelevant to index players, as their profits are derived from index movements rather than specific stock performance [3][5] - The current index levels, particularly around 3000 points, do not warrant a pessimistic outlook, and the highest points for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this year are expected to exceed current levels [3][5] Group 2 - The secondary market includes various investment vehicles beyond stocks, such as ETFs and convertible bonds, which have seen significant trading volumes [7] - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations that financial and consumer sectors will drive index growth, similar to historical trends observed in 2020 [5] - Investors who do not understand certain investment strategies, such as ETFs or QDIIs, are encouraged to refrain from commenting on them [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade, particularly focusing on how Guangdong, China's leading economic and foreign trade province, is responding to these challenges by exploring new market opportunities and adjusting strategies in various industries, especially in seafood exports. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - U.S. tariffs have escalated global trade tensions, causing anxiety among American businesses and consumers, particularly in the seafood industry [1][2] - The American seafood processing industry is experiencing significant challenges due to rising costs from tariffs, leading to halted orders and increased prices for consumers [2][3] - The uncertainty in international trade is making it difficult for companies to plan long-term, affecting the supply chain and pricing of seafood products [3] Group 2: Company Responses - Companies like Dachen Frozen Foods are adjusting their strategies by deepening cooperation with domestic e-commerce platforms to tap into local consumer demand [2][7] - Dachen Frozen Foods has shifted focus to domestic markets, with a significant partnership with a well-known e-commerce platform, which now accounts for 20% to 30% of its revenue [7][8] - Hengxing Group has also proactively transformed its business model to focus on domestic markets, developing a full supply chain from breeding to processing, and optimizing product offerings [4][6] Group 3: Market Diversification - Companies are actively seeking to reduce reliance on single markets by exploring new international markets, including Southeast Asia and the Middle East [10][11] - Guolian Aquatic Products is leveraging its established production lines to penetrate the domestic market, offering high-quality products at competitive prices [9] - The Guangdong seafood industry is recognized for its diverse product offerings and competitive processing costs, which positions it well for both domestic and international markets [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock indices, the current market focus has shifted from overseas to domestic demand. The Politburo meeting in April did not introduce significantly unexpected policies, and fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand remains the main approach. In Q1 2025, China's general public - budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while expenditure increased by 4.2% year - on - year, with the issuance progress of ordinary national bonds reaching 30%, significantly ahead of schedule. The cumulative year - on - year revenue growth of industrial enterprises above designated size in March was 3.4%, consistent with previously released GDP and PPI data. Attention should be paid to whether the year - on - year revenue growth rate in A - share listed companies' financial reports matches these data to verify the economic recovery in Q1. The US tariff policy aims to reshape the global trade pattern through negotiations, which may affect China's exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea and have a long - term impact on the A - share market. In the future, China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the logic of central fiscal promotion of consumption more reasonable. Consumption and dividend themes may be relatively dominant for a long time this year, and for technology themes, sub - sectors such as domestic substitution and high - capital expenditure can be focused on. The view on the stock index is "volatile" [1]. - For national bonds, on the day of the report, the 30 - year main contract of national bond futures rose 0.69%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.23%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 220.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 120 billion yuan. The money market was balanced, with the DR001 rate falling 5bp to 1.54% and the DR007 rate rising 3bp to 1.78%. The bond market in April first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the market's risk - aversion sentiment increased under the influence of tariffs, and the yields of national bonds of all maturities declined rapidly by about 15BP. After the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, the bond market entered a sideways consolidation phase. In the short term, the market has fully priced in positive factors, economic and financial data have generally exceeded market expectations, and there is little need for an immediate interest - rate cut. Without an interest - rate cut, the bond market lacks the impetus to continue strengthening and will continue its current sideways and volatile trend. The view on national bonds is "volatile" [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 29, 2025, IH was at 2,621.2, down 6.8 (-0.26%) from the previous day; IF was at 3,724.8, down 5.8 (-0.16%); IC was at 5,487.2, up 16.2 (0.30%); IM was at 5,773.6, up 44.6 (0.78%) [3]. - **Stock Indices**: On April 29, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,645.5, down 5.7 (-0.22%) from the previous day; the CSI 300 was at 3,775.1, down 6.5 (-0.17%); the CSI 500 was at 5,604.9, up 6.6 (0.12%); the CSI 1000 was at 5,903.4, up 26.3 (0.45%) [3]. - **National Bond Futures**: On April 29, 2025, TS was at 102.33, up 0.012 (0.01%) from the previous day; TF was at 106.07, up 0.155 (0.15%); T was at 109.12, up 0.28 (0.26%); TL was at 120.98, up 0.8 (0.67%) [3]. 3.2 Market News - On April 29, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized during an inspection in Shanghai that Shanghai should take on the historical mission of building an international science and technology innovation center, seize opportunities, serve national strategies, enhance the source function of scientific and technological innovation and the leading function of high - end industries, and accelerate the construction of a globally influential science and technology innovation high - ground [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the trends of the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9]. 3.3.2 National Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of national bond futures main contracts, national bond spot yields, the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year national bond futures, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year national bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [12][14][16]. 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes the middle rates of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, as well as the 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, the euro against the US dollar, the British pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [19][23][24].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the inbound economy may boost China's GDP by approximately 0.2 percentage points in 2025, driven by policy changes aimed at optimizing the outbound tax refund system and increasing inbound consumption [5][6][7] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various industries and companies, indicating a mixed performance across sectors, with some companies showing strong growth while others face challenges [3][4] Industry Overview - **Chemical Industry**: Huafeng Chemical (002064.SZ) reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with revenue of 6.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.15%, and a net profit of 504 million yuan, down 26.21% year-on-year, but a significant increase of 145.60% quarter-on-quarter [28][29] - **Coal Mining**: Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) faced a decline in both volume and price, leading to a projected annual revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.1% year-on-year [32][33] - **Textiles and Apparel**: Mousse Co., Ltd. (001323.SZ) reported a Q1 revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with expectations for recovery following government subsidies [54][55] - **Home Appliances**: Dechang Co., Ltd. (605555.SH) achieved a Q1 revenue of 1 billion yuan, up 21.33% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Southeast Asia [40][41] Company-Specific Insights - **Huafeng Chemical**: The company is consolidating its position in the polyurethane industry through vertical mergers and acquisitions, maintaining a "buy" rating with projected net profits of 2.474 billion, 3.110 billion, and 3.822 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [28][30] - **Lu'an Environmental Energy**: The company is expected to see a rebound in coal prices, with a focus on capacity growth and price elasticity, maintaining a "buy" rating despite recent performance challenges [32][34] - **Mousse Co., Ltd.**: The company is enhancing its multi-channel and multi-category market layout, with a projected net profit of 799 million, 872 million, and 956 million yuan for 2025-2027 [54][55] - **Dechang Co., Ltd.**: The company is expanding its overseas production capacity and expects significant growth in its automotive motor segment, maintaining a "buy" rating [40][41]