目前来看，原油行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于原油后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 交子期货表示，目前欧佩克增产背景下盘面利空主导市场，叠加巴以第一阶段停火协议压制，原油整体 保持承压下行为主。短期空头趋势为主。 五矿期货认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到OPEC供 给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略，但当前油 价仍需测试OPEC的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时OPEC出口下滑做出验证。 周五（10月10日）夜盘，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，原油期货主力合约开盘报455.5元/桶，盘 中低位震荡运行；截至收盘，原油主力最高触及457.3元，下方探低444.5元，跌幅达4.55%。 冠通期货分析称，地缘风险未进一步升级，特朗普宣布以色列和哈马斯均已签署和平计划的第一阶段协 议，欧盟制裁方案出台，消费旺季结束，美国非农就业数据疲软令市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增 产，伊拉克库尔德地区的原油出口有望恢复，中东地区出口增加。原油供需偏弱，建议仍以逢高做空为 主。 ...

Core Insights - In September 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $67.6 per barrel, a month-on-month increase of $0.3 per barrel, while the WTI crude oil futures averaged $63.6 per barrel, a decrease of $0.4 per barrel [2][3] - Geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. attack on Venezuelan vessels and ongoing conflicts involving Israel and Russia, have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, alongside OPEC+'s decision to extend production increases [2][3] Oil Price Review - Brent crude oil futures closed at $67.0 per barrel at the end of September, while WTI crude oil futures closed at $72.4 per barrel [2] - The U.S. significantly increased its crude oil exports, leading to a reduction in inventory levels, despite seasonal refinery maintenance impacting demand [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ announced an extension of production increases for October and November, with a collective reduction target extended until the end of 2026 [3] - Major energy agencies project an increase in global oil demand, with estimates for 2025 ranging from 74,000 to 130,000 barrels per day [3] Industry Policy Developments - A joint announcement from seven ministries in China outlined a plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical industry, emphasizing strict controls on new refining capacity [4][5] - The plan aims to optimize supply-side conditions in the refining and chemical sectors, amidst global uncertainties [5] Price Forecasts - The expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2025 is between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is projected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [5] Recommended Stocks - Key investment recommendations include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum, Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil strengthened significantly this week. The EIA inventory showed a large drawdown during the week, indicating the end of the peak season. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts flared up again, causing the market to worry about crude oil supply to some extent. The logic of peak - season demand for crude oil is approaching its end, and geopolitical conflicts are unlikely to have a significant impact. The market is expected to shift back to trading based on weak fundamentals. On the supply side, 1.66 million barrels per day of production is planned to resume, and the OPEC+ meeting in early October may continue to increase production. The magnitude of the increase requires close attention. On the demand side, the economic data released by the US is mediocre, which may suppress demand, and inventories may enter a continuous accumulation phase. Overall, the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil market may become more prominent, and oil prices are more likely to fall than rise [26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Core Indicators and Views This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 19 decreased by 3.821 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 3.42 million barrels in the previous week. As of September 22, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.833 million barrels to 14.922 million barrels. The EIA report showed that for the week ending September 19, US crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels to 13.501 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 0.15%. The average four - week supply of US crude oil products was 20.466 million barrels per day, a 0.94% increase compared to the same period last year. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 803,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. A refinery of Rosneft in Russia suspended its oil processing operations after a drone attack on September 20. Iraq reached an agreement to export oil from the Kurdish oil fields through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline. The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending September 26 was 424, compared with 418 in the previous week. The Iraqi oil ministry officials stated that the resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase the crude oil export volume to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the coming days, and Iraq's production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [10][11][14] - **Macroeconomics**: The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 3.2% in 2025 (previously forecasted as 2.9%) and 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). It also expects the US economic growth rate to slow down to 1.8% in 2025 (previously forecasted as 1.6%) and be 1.5% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). The one - year loan prime rate in China as of September 22 was 3%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in September was 52, in line with expectations but down from 53 in the previous month; the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in September was 53.9, slightly lower than the expected 54 and down from 54.5 in the previous month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 20 was 218,000, lower than the expected 235,000. The monthly rate of durable goods orders in the US in August was 2.9%, far exceeding the expected - 0.5%. The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in the second quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.3%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the US in the second quarter was 2.6%, slightly higher than the expected 2.5%, and the final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter was 2.5%, higher than the expected 1.7% [16] - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Trump stated at the United Nations General Assembly on September 23 that if Russia is unwilling to reach an agreement, the US is ready to impose tariffs. He also called on Europe to stop all energy purchases from Russia and urged the United Nations to take anti - Russian oil measures with the US. On September 24, Trump said that with the support of the EU, Ukraine is capable of fighting and regaining its entire territory. On September 23, Polish Prime Minister Tusk announced that the border crossing with Belarus would be reopened at 0:00 on the 25th. On September 25, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) stated that US fighter jets urgently took off to identify and intercept four Russian military aircraft flying near Alaska [18][22] - **Institutional Forecasts**: The EIA short - term energy outlook report expects the WTI crude oil price to be $64.16 per barrel in 2025 (previously expected to be $63.58) and $47.77 per barrel in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). It expects the Brent crude oil price to be $67.80 per barrel in 2025 (previously expected to be $67.22) and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast) [23] Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - Key indicators to be released next week include China's official manufacturing PMI for September on September 30, the number of US JOLTs job openings in August and the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September on September 3, the EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 26 on October 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 27 on October 2, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US for September on October 3, and the total number of US oil rigs for the week ending October 3 on October 4 [24] 02 Price Basic Data Crude Oil Basic Price - The prices of Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle East main contract on September 26, 2025, were $69.22, $65.72, 491.3 yuan, and $70.62 respectively. The weekly changes were $2.54, $3.32, 4.3 yuan, and $1.66 respectively, with weekly change rates of 4%, 5%, 1%, and 2% respectively. The monthly changes were $2.52, $2.47, - 4.8 yuan, and $1.37 respectively, with monthly change rates of 4%, 4%, - 1%, and 2% respectively. The annual changes were - $1.87, - $1.95, - 31.9 yuan, and - $1.32 respectively, with annual change rates of - 3%, - 3%, - 6%, and - 2% respectively [33] Crude Oil Forward Price - The report provides the forward curves of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil from September 22 to September 26, 2025 [54] Crude Oil Monthly Spread - The report presents the daily data of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil monthly spreads, including the spreads between the first - month contract and the second - month contract, the first - month contract and the third - month contract, and the first - month contract and the sixth - month contract [56] Crude Oil Disk Spread - The report shows the daily data of the spreads between Brent and WTI, Brent and Oman, and the quality spread EFS (Brent - Dubai) [64][67] Main Oil Grade Premiums and Discounts - The report provides the monthly data of premiums and discounts for various oil grades, including Iran's OSP to Asia for light and heavy crude oil, Saudi Arabia's OSP to Asia for ultra - light, extra - light, light, medium, and heavy crude oil, Iraq's OSP to Asia for Basra medium and heavy crude oil, and Kuwait's FOB premiums to Asia [70][72][78] US Dollar Index - The report shows the relationship between the US dollar index and the WTI crude oil price [86] 03 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand World Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - **OPEC Supply - Demand Balance**: The OPEC supply - demand balance table shows the world's crude oil supply and demand situation from 2022 to 2026. The world's total demand is expected to increase from 99.87 million barrels per day in 2022 to 107.1 million barrels per day in 2026, with an average annual increase of about 1.5 million barrels per day. The world's total supply is expected to increase from 100.3 million barrels per day in 2022 to 107.67 million barrels per day in 2026. The supply - demand gap is expected to change from a surplus of 0.43 million barrels per day in 2022 to a slight shortage in some quarters in the future [97][99][100] - **EIA Supply - Demand Forecast**: The EIA's world supply - demand balance table shows that the world's total production is expected to increase from 102.6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024 to 106.99 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The world's total consumption is expected to increase from 101.79 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024 to 105.66 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The net extraction of global crude oil and other oil product inventories is expected to show a downward trend overall [107][109] OPEC Major Country Production - The OPEC+ quota table shows the production quotas of major OPEC countries from January to October 2025. The total quota of OPEC+ is expected to increase from 30.423 million barrels per day in January to 33.017 million barrels per day in October, with a total increase of 2.594 million barrels per day [94] Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - The report provides the supply and demand forecasts of OPEC and EIA, including the production and consumption of different regions and countries, as well as the changes in inventories [97][107] Refinery Maintenance Capacity - Not provided in the document Refining Profit - Not provided in the document Crude Oil Inventory - The OPEC report shows the changes in OECD commercial inventories, strategic reserve inventories, and total inventories from 2022 to 2026. The EIA report shows the net extraction of crude oil and other oil product inventories in the world, the US, and other OECD countries from the first quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2026, as well as the ending commercial inventories of crude oil and other oil products in OECD countries [100][109]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Affected by the Fed's cautious rate - cut expectations, the copper price is still on a strong trend due to tight fundamentals, though the upward momentum is weaker than the previous day [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply and demand gradually tightening, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the peak - season and pre - holiday stocking expectations [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply - demand of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner due to high supply - demand pressure of crude oil and limited follow - up of spot prices [13][14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand falls short of expectations and there is no actual anti - involution policy [15]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand is underwhelming and no anti - involution policy has been implemented [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term as downstream pre - holiday stocking ends and new capacity comes on stream [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Attention should be paid to the price transmission between upstream and downstream after the price increase and the macro - market during the National Day holiday [20]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak fundamentals and limited upward momentum [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 26th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates rose nearly 3%, and silver rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal fell over 2% [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:16 on September 26th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2512, silver 2512, and CSI 500 2512, while flowing out of SSE 50 2512, copper 2511, and iron ore 2601 [7]. 3.2 Individual Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The supply of refined copper remains tight due to smelter overhauls and reduced scrap copper supply. The demand is driven by pre - holiday replenishment [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by the reduction of lithium mica - sourced production, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking is ending [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production adjustment will increase the pressure in Q4. The travel peak season is over, but there are factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is restricted by funds and weather. The cost support is strengthening, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure of crude oil is high [13][14]. - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is rising, but the peak - season demand is weak. There are new capacity releases and inventory reduction by petrochemical enterprises [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is increasing, and the agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the peak - season effect is not obvious [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is high. The cost support is strengthening [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The mine output is increasing, and the downstream inventory is piling up. Attention should be paid to the price increase and holiday market [20]. - **Urea**: The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [21][22].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for the crude oil market [1]. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weakening. The end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase are factors contributing to the bearish outlook. Therefore, it is advisable to short on rallies [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. EIA data shows a significant unexpected drawdown in US crude oil inventories, but an unexpected build - up in refined oil inventories, alleviating previous supply concerns. The overall oil product inventory continues to increase, and the US refinery utilization rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points. OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, sold to Asia in October by $1 per barrel. Geopolitical risks have not further escalated, and with the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase, it is recommended to short on rallies [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2511 contract, rose 1.47% to 482.3 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 478.5 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 485.3 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 4,784 to 33,039 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. It has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel but expects the price to drop to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintain the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. OPEC maintains its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day, and IEA has raised its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and its 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. US EIA data on September 17 showed that for the week ending September 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's July crude oil production was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its August 2025 production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. US crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day in the week of September 12. US crude oil product four - week average supply decreased to 20.671 million barrels per day, with gasoline weekly demand increasing by 3.55% to 8.81 million barrels per day and diesel weekly demand increasing by 7.23% to 3.621 million barrels per day [4].

Group 1 - The domestic energy sector in the futures market showed significant gains, with crude oil futures opening at 479.2 yuan/barrel and reaching a high of 485.3 yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.87% [1] - Current market sentiment indicates a strong performance in crude oil, with expectations of a volatile upward trend in the near term [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future of crude oil prices, with some suggesting a bearish outlook due to weakening supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical risks [1][2] Group 2 - Iraq has preliminarily approved a plan to resume oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through Turkey, potentially adding at least 230,000 barrels per day to the supply [2] - Recent drone attacks in Ukraine have disrupted Russian oil exports, heightening the risk of production cuts, while the market anticipates further sanctions on certain European countries [2] - OPEC's production increase remains a key focus for market participants, as it could significantly impact oil supply and pricing [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for crude oil is to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. Although EIA data shows a significant unexpected drawdown in US crude oil inventories, the unexpected build - up in refined oil inventories eases supply concerns, and overall oil product inventories continue to increase. The US refinery operating rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points. [1][3] - OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025, and this 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions. The next OPEC+ meeting on October 5 will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter, and the IEA has raised the forecast of crude oil surplus again. [1] - Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by $1 per barrel. After the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. [1] - The upcoming end of the consumption season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase will lead to a weakening of crude oil supply and demand. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term. [1] - The previous sharp drop in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting. The market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil. [1] - Iraq and other countries have submitted a new compensation plan, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, and the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, which eases the pressure of supply increase. [1] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for now. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The investment strategy is to wait and see. The market situation is complex with factors such as OPEC+ production adjustment, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand changes. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to short at high levels, but in the short term, due to the release of some negative news and geopolitical uncertainties, waiting and seeing is advisable. [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2511 fell 1.60% to 491.8 yuan per ton today, with a minimum price of 491.7 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 500.5 yuan per ton, and the open interest decreased by 962 to 33,886 lots. [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. It has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel, but expects the price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. [3] - OPEC maintains its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. [3] - IEA has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. [3] - US EIA data on September 17 showed that for the week ending September 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels (expected to decrease by 857,000 barrels), gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels (expected to increase by 68,000 barrels), refined oil inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels (expected to increase by 975,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels. [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - OPEC's July crude oil production was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its August 2025 production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. [4] - US crude oil production in the week of September 12 decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day, and is currently 149,000 barrels per day lower than the record high set in early December last year. [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.671 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.95% compared to the same period last year, with the increase rate decreasing. Gasoline and diesel demand rebounded from low levels, driving a 4.33% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products. [4]

Oil Price Sector - As of September 16, 2025, the prices for Brent crude, WTI crude, Russian EPSO crude, and Russian Urals crude are $68.47, $64.52, $63.69, and $65.49 per barrel respectively [1][2] - The month-on-month price changes for major oil products are as follows: Brent crude (+2.81%), WTI crude (+2.90%), Russian EPSO (+3.02%), and Russian Urals (0.00%) [1][2] - Year-to-date price changes from the beginning of 2025 to September 16, 2025, show Brent crude (-9.82%), WTI crude (-11.77%), Russian EPSO (-11.48%), and Russian Urals (-4.41%) [2] Oil Inventory Sector - The IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +195.06, +171.83, and -53.06 thousand barrels per day respectively, with adjustments from August predictions being +17.80, +9.25, and -17.83 thousand barrels per day [2] - The average forecast for global oil inventory changes in 2025 is +104.61 thousand barrels per day, an increase of +3.07 thousand barrels per day from the previous month [2] Oil Supply Sector - For September 2025, the IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply to be 10,582.51, 10,552.82, and 10,460.46 million barrels per day respectively, with increases from 2024 supply being +267.18, +233.92, and +200.88 million barrels per day [3][4] - The 2026 oil supply predictions are 10,787.62, 10,664.34, and 10,618.42 million barrels per day, reflecting increases of +205.12, +111.53, and +157.96 million barrels per day from 2025 [3] Oil Demand Sector - The IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecast global oil demand for 2025 to be 10,387.45, 10,380.99, and 10,513.52 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases of +73.68, +89.62, and +129.47 million barrels per day [5] - For Q3 2025, the demand predictions are +93.54, +116.34, and +156.83 million barrels per day, with adjustments from August predictions being +40.99, +12.22, and -0.07 million barrels per day [5] Related Companies - Relevant listed companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) among others [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Strategy analysis: Hold [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak season. Currently, EIA data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, and the increase in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations. The overall oil product inventory continues to rise. However, the US refinery operating rate has rebounded slightly by 0.6 percentage points and remains relatively high. On September 7, OPEC+ officially stated that eight countries decided to adjust the production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, starting from October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out gradually. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold their next meeting on October 5, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The latest IEA monthly report has further increased the expected surplus of crude oil. Saudi Aramco has lowered the shipping price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, to Asia in October by $1 per barrel. Currently, after the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. Attention should be paid to the progress of the ceasefire agreement negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and India's procurement of Russian crude oil. As the subsequent consumption peak season is coming to an end, the weak US non-farm payroll data has raised concerns about crude oil demand, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium and long term. In the short term, the sharp decline in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting, and the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil. In addition, countries such as Iraq have submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of increased supply. Israel's attack on the Hamas ceasefire negotiation delegation in Qatar has increased the geopolitical risk in the Middle East, and Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold for now [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Today, the main contract of crude oil futures, the 2510 contract, rose 1.15% to 493.6 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 486.8 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 495.2 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 3,109 to 13,395 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. Additionally, EIA has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel. However, EIA predicts that the Brent crude oil price will drop to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintain the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. OPEC has maintained its forecast for the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has raised its forecast for the global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and increased the forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [3] - On the evening of September 10, US EIA data showed that for the week ending September 5, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.939 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.04 million barrels, and were 2.83% lower than the five-year average; gasoline inventories increased by 1.458 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 243,000 barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 4.715 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 35,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 365,000 barrels. The EIA data shows that crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, and the increase in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations. The overall oil product inventory continues to rise [3] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, the latest OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in July was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its production in August 2025 increased by 478,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in production in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day to 13.495 million barrels per day in the week of September 5. Currently, US crude oil production has decreased by 136,000 barrels per day from the all-time high set in early December last year [4] - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four-week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.888 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.76% compared with the same period last year, and the increase compared with the same period last year has decreased. Among them, the weekly gasoline demand decreased by 6.68% month-on-month to 8.508 million barrels per day, and the four-week average demand was 8.927 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.58% compared with the same period last year; the weekly diesel demand decreased by 10.38% month-on-month to 3.377 million barrels per day, and the four-week average demand was 3.813 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.01% compared with the same period last year. Both gasoline and diesel demand decreased month-on-month, driving the single-week supply of US crude oil products to continue to decrease by 4.22% month-on-month [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The fundamentals of copper are generally strong. Mine accidents and low inventories support copper prices, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut continues to underpin the downside. The market is expected to be mainly in a strong sideways trend [9]. - **Crude Oil**: In the medium to long term, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. In the short term, it is advised to gradually take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks and partial release of OPEC+ meeting negatives [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand of asphalt both increase. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and then wait and see as the asphalt futures price has fallen to the lower edge of the trading range [12]. - **PP**: It is expected that PP will trade sideways in the near term with limited downside as downstream demand may improve during the peak season, but the industry lacks anti - involution policies [13]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to trade sideways with limited downside in the near term as the demand for agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the industry lacks anti - involution policies [15]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline sideways as its fundamentals are under pressure with high inventory and weak demand, and the industry lacks effective policies [16][18]. - **Urea**: The urea market is bottoming out, and a technical rebound is expected as the inventory is high and domestic demand is weak [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 12, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Silver, apples, copper, nickel, aluminum, and others rose, while the container shipping index (European line), low - sulfur fuel oil, and others declined. Among stock index futures, IF and IH fell, while IC and IM rose. Among bond futures, TS fell, while TF, T, and TL rose [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:17 on September 12, copper 2510, silver 2510, and 30 - year treasury bonds 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 300 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [7]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Varieties 3.2.1 Copper - The US initial jobless claims reached a nearly four - year high, and CPI increased. China's copper ore imports in August increased year - on - year. The smelter processing fee decreased, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The terminal profit is weak, and the peak - season expectation is uncertain [9]. 3.2.2 Crude Oil - The US oil products are in a state of over - inventory, and the refinery operating rate has slightly increased. OPEC+ will adjust production in October, and Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The US - India trade issue may affect the global oil trade flow. The consumption peak season is ending, and the supply - demand balance is expected to weaken [10]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate has increased this week but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September has increased significantly. The downstream operating rate has mostly increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory - to - sales ratio has increased but is still at a low level. The cost support has weakened [11][12]. 3.2.4 PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has increased, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. The proportion of standard - grade拉丝 production has declined. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased. The downstream is expected to enter the peak season [13]. 3.2.5 Plastic - The plastic operating rate has decreased, and the PE downstream operating rate has increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased. The agricultural film is entering the peak season [15]. 3.2.6 PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low. The export expectation has weakened, and the social inventory is high. New production capacity has been put into operation or is planned to be tested [16]. 3.2.7 Urea - Urea opened low and rebounded weakly, then declined in the afternoon. The supply is around 180,000 tons per day, with both restarts and maintenance. The inventory is high, and the demand is limited. The compound fertilizer factory's operating rate has increased, but the inventory is still high [19].