关注、加星，第 时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 事件： 9月12日，央行公布2025年8月中国金融数据，信贷余额同比下降0.1个百分点至6.8%，社融存量同 比下行0.2个百分点至8.8%，M1同比上行0.4个百分点至6.0%。 核心观点："存款搬家"提速。 8月金融数据中最明显的变化体现为"存款搬家"，居民存款连续两个月超季节性下行，以及非银存款的再 度多增。 7、8月居民存款连续两个月低于季节性增幅，为2025年首次。另外，8月非银存款新增11800 亿，连续创有数据以来同期新高。居民存款和非银存款连续两个月呈"跷跷板"关系，和资本市场表现联 系紧密，反映居民资产结构变化初露端倪。 居民贷款仍偏弱，在就业市场尚不稳定的阶段，居民部门对债务秉持审慎态度。 居民贷款同比少增1597 亿，这一情况和处于低位的消费者信心指数一致。另一方面，消费贷贴息政策在9月份才启动，8月数据 尚未体现。居民贷款增长的不确定性或与当前居民就业前景有关，BCI中的企业招工前瞻指数2025年8月 为44.07，续创2020年3月以来新低。 8月企业贷款中，中长贷余额同比增速下滑趋势放缓，企业对 ...

智通财经记者 | 杨志锦 智通财经编辑 | 王姝 中国人民银行9月12日公布的数据显示，今年8月非银存款新增1.18万亿，相比去年同期多增0.55万亿，但环比少增近万亿。这 可能意味着虽然8月股市火热，但居民存款并未加速流入股市。此外，或有一些股民解套立场。 累计来看，今年前8月非银存款新增5.87万亿，创出历史新高。智通财经记者采访的业内人士认为，在存款利率降至低位后， 居民存款开始加大资管产品的配置，居民存款向非银搬家的趋势明显。而这一趋势还可能延续，这对大中型银行相对利好， 而小银行则面临存款流失的压力。 解套离场？ 非银存款指保险、基金、券商等非银机构存放在银行的存款，央行一般按月公布非银存款的数据。 8月上证指数站上3800点，刷新10年新高。同时，8月A股沪深两市合计成交金额高达47.83万亿元，创单月成交金额新高，相 比2015年6月高出10万亿以上。 央行数据显示，8月非银存款新增1.18万亿，相比去年同期多增0.55万亿，但环比少增近万亿。历史对比来看，这是历史第十 四高的水平，新增规模并不低，但和股市成交火热时相比，这一新增规模仍偏低。这可能意味着8月居民存款并未加速流入股 市。此外，或有 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) reached 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [2][6] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.23 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a month-on-month acceleration of 0.4 percentage points, marking four consecutive months of growth [2][6] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" has become a hot topic, with individual deposits increasing by 110 billion yuan in August, although this is still 600 billion yuan less than the same month last year [2][7] Group 2 - In August, new RMB loans amounted to 590 billion yuan, recovering from negative growth in the previous month, but still 310 billion yuan less year-on-year [6] - The analysis indicates that the narrowing "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 growth rates suggests ample market liquidity and increased activity in corporate current funds, but weak credit generation efficiency [6][8] - The increase in deposits at non-bank financial institutions by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, which is 550 billion yuan more than the previous year, highlights the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" [7][8] Group 3 - Factors contributing to the current wave of deposit migration include reduced deposit interest rates, regulatory restrictions on manual interest supplementation, and rising stock market performance [8] - Popular investment products during this period include fixed-income products and equity funds, as they continue to attract significant capital despite the decline in net growth rates of money market and bond funds [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the shift in deposit flows towards bank wealth management products due to the reduction in deposit interest rates by major banks and subsequent adjustments by smaller banks, leading to a significant net growth in the balance of wealth management products [1][2] - In August, among the top 14 wealth management companies, 12 reported a net increase in their balance, with a total growth of approximately 285.7 billion yuan, bringing the total scale to 25.02 trillion yuan [1] - The month-on-month increase in August was lower than July's increase of about 1.8 trillion yuan, attributed to seasonal fluctuations in bank deposits at the beginning of the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - State-owned banks' wealth management companies are the primary beneficiaries of the deposit "migration," with the four major state-owned banks collectively increasing their wealth management scale by 144.2 billion yuan in August, accounting for about half of the total increase among the 14 companies [2] - ICBC Wealth Management led the industry with a monthly growth of approximately 65 billion yuan, followed closely by Minsheng Wealth Management, which also exceeded 60 billion yuan in growth [2] - As of the end of August, the six wealth management companies with scales exceeding 2 trillion yuan are ranked as follows: China Merchants Bank Wealth Management (2.53 trillion yuan), Xingye Wealth Management (2.38 trillion yuan), Xinyu Wealth Management (2.25 trillion yuan), Agricultural Bank Wealth Management (2.1 trillion yuan), ICBC Wealth Management (2.1 trillion yuan), and Bank of China Wealth Management (2.05 trillion yuan) [2]

Group 1 - In August, leading wealth management companies in the market continued to experience net inflows, with a total scale growth of approximately 285.7 billion yuan, bringing the total scale to 25.02 trillion yuan [1] - Among the top 14 wealth management companies, 12 achieved net growth in their balance, with the largest contributors being state-owned banks [2] - The overall scale of the banking wealth management industry is estimated to have surpassed 33 trillion yuan, driven by the demand for "fixed income plus" products and corporate wealth management needs [2][3] Group 2 - The four wealth management companies under major state-owned banks contributed a total growth of 144.2 billion yuan in August, accounting for about half of the total increase among the 14 companies [2] - The demand for corporate wealth management has shifted due to declining interest rates and market uncertainties, leading companies to seek better returns on idle funds [3] - The issuance of new equity and mixed-asset products has significantly increased, with 8 new equity products and 45 mixed products launched in July 2025, surpassing the monthly average from the first half of the year [3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The banking industry is currently experiencing a "liability shortage" in Q1 2025 due to a large issuance of special refinancing bonds and a tightening of liquidity by the central bank, which has increased the burden on the banking system and limited the scale of market lending, leading to higher funding rates [1][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Liability Structure**: The primary component of the banking liability structure is deposits, typically exceeding 70%, with fluctuations between 73% and 75%. Interbank liabilities account for over 10%, and interbank certificates of deposit have increased to about 4% to 5% [2]. - **Response to Deposit Challenges**: When facing difficulties in deposit absorption, banks often issue interbank certificates or borrow from the central bank. The issuance of interbank certificates has increased, reflecting a strong willingness to raise prices [3]. - **Impact of "Liability Shortage"**: The "liability shortage" in Q1 2025 is attributed to the significant issuance of special refinancing bonds and the central bank's liquidity tightening, which has limited the market's lending capacity and affected leverage enthusiasm [5]. - **Future Outlook on Bank Burden**: It is expected that banks will not face significant burden pressures in the future, as there are no new plans for special refinancing bonds and the central bank's liquidity stance has stabilized [6]. - **Deposit Migration Phenomenon**: The phenomenon of deposit migration is limited in scale and primarily reflects changes in the liability structure rather than causing significant funding gaps. The impact on equity markets and other financial products is positive but not decisive [7][8]. - **Current Liability Costs**: The overall liability cost for large banks is approximately 1.65%, with deposit costs between 1.45% and 1.5%. The 10-year government bond yield has risen to around 1.8%, providing better space for bank allocations [9]. - **Investment Contributions**: In 2025, banks have relied on selling old bonds from OCI and AC accounts to compensate for reduced trading profits, which has become a crucial method for maintaining revenue contributions [10]. - **Future Selling Needs**: There is an ongoing need for banks to realize gains from old bonds in the third and fourth quarters, especially as the low-interest-rate environment continues to pose challenges [11]. - **Expansion and Risks**: The overall expansion of bank balance sheets is positive but may slow down. Some banks under operational pressure may consider shrinking their balance sheets [12]. - **OCI Account Trends**: The proportion of OCI accounts in the banking system has gradually increased, allowing banks greater flexibility in trading without directly impacting current profits [13]. - **Performance of Different Bank Types**: Large commercial banks, as primary dealers, play a crucial role in policy execution and market stabilization, making their financial investment actions significant for analysis [14]. Additional Important Insights - The current market conditions and uncertainties may affect banks' allocation capabilities, and the flexibility of banks compared to non-bank institutions allows for better management of valuation fluctuations [9]. - The migration of deposits is influenced by various factors, including customer demographics and market conditions, with different groups showing varying levels of willingness to shift funds [8].

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuation in resident deposits cannot adequately explain the stock market's rise and fall, as the key to stock market movements lies more with non-bank financial institutions rather than changes in resident deposits [2][3][4]. Group 1: Resident Deposit Changes and Stock Market - Since 2009, July has consistently shown negative growth in resident deposits, indicating seasonal factors rather than significant economic implications [3]. - Historical data shows that in 11 out of 17 years since 2009, the stock market rose in July, despite significant drops in resident deposits in some years [3]. - The relationship between resident deposit changes and stock market performance appears weak, as evidenced by contrasting outcomes in various years despite similar deposit declines [4]. Group 2: Non-Bank Financial Institutions - Changes in deposits from non-bank financial institutions are more reliable indicators of stock market performance, with significant increases in their deposits correlating with stock market gains [5]. - In July 2023, non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in deposits, which was a substantial year-on-year increase [5]. - A strong positive correlation exists between the changes in non-bank financial institution deposits and stock market performance, suggesting that as these deposits increase, the stock market tends to rise [6]. Group 3: Resident Sector Leverage - The trend of residents saving more and borrowing less continues, indicating a de-leveraging process within the resident sector [8]. - As of Q2 2023, the leverage ratio for the resident sector was 61.1%, a slight decrease from the previous year, reflecting ongoing de-leveraging efforts [8]. - Historical data shows that the resident sector has undergone multiple rounds of de-leveraging, with the current trend being the most recent in a series of adjustments since 2004 [12]. Group 4: Economic Context and Policy Implications - The current economic environment, characterized by high leverage ratios and a focus on de-leveraging, suggests that expectations for a quick reversal in this trend may be unrealistic [15]. - The government may need to increase leverage to stabilize and stimulate demand, especially in light of the challenges faced by the resident sector [16]. - The historical context of leverage changes in response to economic crises indicates that government intervention is crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity have attracted significant funds. Money market funds and bond funds have seen a notable decline in net asset value growth, while fixed-income wealth management products continue to grow due to their yield advantage over time deposits. Insurance premium income growth was high before the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate but has since decreased. Equity and hybrid funds have maintained high-speed growth [1]. - Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other. The current deposit relocation is related to factors such as the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. As the equity market continues to rise, deposit relocation accelerated in July [2]. - In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment. For example, the proportion of pure fixed-income funds has decreased in the United States, Europe, and Japan during low-interest-rate periods. In China, the proportion of bond and money market funds among all public funds has decreased since 2025 as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [3]. - In the short term, the relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically. This can be observed from the following perspectives: the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease as the stock market rises; the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate has returned to the "normal" range; and an increase in the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions may indicate a slowdown in non-bank fund relocation [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity attract significant funds 1.1 Decreased attractiveness of non-equity assets to funds - Cash management products have limited appeal. During the current deposit relocation period, money market funds have grown more than cash management wealth management products. Since 2025, the yields of both types of assets have dropped to low levels, with cash management wealth management products having an annualized yield of about 1.6% [12]. - The bond market's profitability has declined, but it still offers an advantage over time deposits. Since the end of 2023, bond funds and fixed-income wealth management products have grown rapidly. However, since 2025, the bond market has entered a "triple low" era of low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility, leading to a decline in the profitability of pure bonds and a slowdown in the growth of bond fund scale. Currently, the annualized yield of pure bond funds is about 2.7%, and that of fixed-income plus funds is about 2.6%, still significantly higher than the time deposit rate of about 1% [12]. - The attractiveness of insurance products has diminished. After the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate in September, the "panic buying" effect has weakened. The market's response to this round of "panic buying" has been muted due to factors such as the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the guaranteed interest rate, the exhaustion of consumers' purchasing power from previous rounds of "panic buying," and the decreasing marginal impact of interest rate adjustments on consumers' willingness to move funds in a low-interest-rate environment [17]. 1.2 More funds may flow into the equity market - Equity funds have experienced high-speed growth, and the stock market is attractive to funds. Since September 2024, as the stock market has continued to rise, the net asset value of equity funds has maintained high-speed growth, and the growth rate of hybrid funds has turned positive. The yields of equity and hybrid products have been increasing, and they are expected to attract more funds in the future [22]. - In the future, more funds may flow into the equity market. In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets are more cost-effective than pure bonds. As the equity market rises, the overall risk appetite has increased, and residents and non-bank funds may flow more into the equity market. Since July 2025, the increase in wealth management products has been lower than in previous years, indicating that more funds have flowed into other non-bank institutions and products. The risk appetite of non-bank institutions has increased significantly, as evidenced by the growth of convertible bond ETFs and the increase in institutional new account openings in the stock market [25]. II. How long will the relocation of deposits and non-bank funds continue? 2.1 Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other - The current deposit relocation is related to multiple factors, including the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. Since 2022, there have been multiple rounds of deposit interest rate cuts. After the first four cuts, the last three cuts had a limited impact on deposit relocation. In 2024, the ban on manual interest supplements led to a significant decrease in deposit growth and a large increase in non-bank deposit growth, but the relocation reversed after the standardization of interbank deposit interest rates in November. The rise of the stock market has also driven deposit relocation. In September 2024, non-bank deposit growth increased significantly due to the stock market rally but then declined. In July 2025, the increase in risk appetite at home and abroad led to a rise in the equity market, and institutional funds and deposits moved from pure bonds to fixed-income plus and equity products, resulting in a significant increase in non-bank deposit growth [30][35]. - Deposit relocation accelerated in July as the equity market continued to rise. After the state-owned large banks initiated a new round of deposit interest rate cuts in May, deposit relocation was not obvious in June. However, in July, the combined deposits of residents and enterprises decreased by 2.57 trillion yuan, the highest in the past four years. Resident deposit growth decreased slightly, while non-bank deposit growth rebounded significantly to 15% [36]. - Deposit relocation may continue. Historically, deposit relocation has been significant during major stock market rallies, such as from 2005 - 2007, 2014 - 2015, 2016 - 2017, 2019 - 2021, and since September 2024. Even after the stock market reaches a peak and retraces, deposit relocation usually continues for some time. Since July, the stock market has risen significantly, and if it continues to rise, deposit relocation may persist [37]. 2.2 In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment - Non-bank asset allocation adjustment is a typical feature of a low-interest-rate environment. In recent years, as broad-based interest rates have declined, the profitability of fixed-income assets such as bonds has gradually decreased. Driven by factors such as the introduction of policies to stabilize the capital market in September 2024, technological breakthroughs since 2025, and the expectation of "anti-involution" policies, the equity market has continued to break through, and non-bank institutional funds have shifted from pure fixed-income assets to equity and fixed-income plus assets [41]. - Similar trends have been observed in other countries. In the United States, during the two rounds of interest rate cuts from 2007 - 2016 and 2018 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market mutual funds decreased from a high of 56% in 2008 to about 40% in 2021. In Europe, from 2012 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market UCITS funds decreased from 45% in 2012 to about 36% at the end of 2021. In Japan, after entering a low-interest-rate era in the late 1990s, the scale of bond and money market funds declined rapidly, and their proportion decreased from a peak of 77% to about 7.0% in March 2024 [41][42][49]. - In China, the scale of bond and money market funds has grown rapidly in recent years, and their proportion among all public funds increased from about 55% to about 65% in 2024. However, since 2025, the proportion has decreased as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [49]. 2.3 In the short term, when will the relocation of non-bank funds slow down periodically? - The relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically as the equity market fluctuates and interest rates change. This can be observed from the following perspectives: - Stock-bond valuation and bond-credit valuation: As the stock market rises significantly, the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease. As of the end of August, the risk premium of the WIND300 ex-financial index has decreased from more than two standard deviations above the mean to less than one standard deviation below the mean, and the risk premium of the dividend index has decreased to near two standard deviations below the mean. Insurance funds and other institutions may slow down the relocation of funds. Bonds still have a significant advantage over loans, and as the bond market rebounds from a low level, the cost of real economy financing continues to decline, making bonds attractive to banks [52]. - The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate: Before 2024, the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate fluctuated around 70BP. In 2024, as broad-based interest rates declined, the spread was compressed to about 50BP. From December 2024 to January 2025, interest rates declined rapidly, further compressing the spread. Since 2025, the spread has oscillated between 10BP and 40BP. However, since late July, as the bond market has continued to rebound, the spread has gradually risen to about 45BP, returning to the "normal" range before 2025, indicating that the market has corrected the previously overdrawn expectations, and non-bank funds may slow down the selling of bonds [57]. - The scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions: As the equity market rally slows down and interest rates rise, institutions are increasing their purchases of 30-year ETFs, and the long-short ratio of TL positions is rising. On the one hand, the growth of fixed-income plus products has increased the demand for 30-year ETFs. On the other hand, some institutions may buy 30-year ETFs and TL to hedge against equity market risks. When the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions continue to rise, it may indicate a slowdown in the relocation of non-bank funds [61].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is entering a long-term "value re-rating" cycle supported by three long-term factors, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks moving in sync based on the same fundamental and expected logic [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3,800 points in August 2025, driven by policy and capital [1]. - Allianz Fund's first public fund, Allianz China Select Mixed Securities Investment Fund, was established in September 2024 and has shown outstanding performance due to its proactive management approach [1]. - The current market is characterized by a "slow bull" foundation, with significant changes in financial market regulation, valuation logic, and asset pricing mechanisms [11]. Group 2: Long-term Factors Supporting Value Re-rating - The three core factors supporting the value re-rating cycle are: 1. Improvement in the long-term competitiveness of Chinese enterprises 2. Mitigation of systemic risks 3. Strong policy support [4][6]. - These factors are considered "constant variables" that will continue to exert influence over the coming years [4]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Trends - There is a noticeable shift in residents' asset allocation from debt to equity, indicating a recovery in confidence across society [7][8]. - The upcoming maturity of high-interest three-year deposits is expected to drive funds towards more attractive investment options, creating positive feedback for the market [9]. Group 4: Foreign Investment Perspective - Foreign capital is gradually shifting towards a "Stand Alone" strategy for Chinese assets, indicating a fundamental change in market positioning [10]. - Although foreign investment in A-shares has not yet surged, there is strong confidence in the Chinese market, with foreign investors waiting for clearer geopolitical signals before making significant moves [10]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Allianz Fund maintains a strategy of "enhanced GARP" (Growth at a Reasonable Price), focusing on a balanced allocation between dividend and quality technology assets [11]. - The fund is currently positioned with a high allocation towards quality technology assets, anticipating significant excess returns as the fundamentals improve [11].

Core Insights - The decline in household deposits in July 2023 is interpreted as a seasonal effect rather than a significant economic indicator, as historical data shows similar trends in previous years [2][3] - The relationship between household deposit changes and stock market fluctuations is weak, with non-bank financial institutions playing a more crucial role in market movements [4][5] - The trend of "more savings, less borrowing" among Chinese households continues, indicating a persistent deleveraging process [7][10] Group 1: Household Deposits and Loans - In July 2023, household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, which is 780 billion yuan more than the same month last year [1] - The decline in household loans in July 2023, amounting to 489.3 billion yuan, marks a shift from the previous trend of positive growth since 2009 [3] - Cumulatively, household deposits increased by 9.66 trillion yuan in the first seven months of 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 720.3 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Stock Market Dynamics - The stock market's performance in July does not correlate strongly with household deposit changes, as evidenced by varying stock index movements despite significant deposit fluctuations in previous years [2][4] - Non-bank financial institutions saw an increase in deposits of 2.14 trillion yuan in July 2023, indicating a potential shift in investment behavior away from traditional bank deposits [4][5] Group 3: Deleveraging Trends - The household leverage ratio in China has slightly decreased to 61.1% as of Q2 2023, down from 62.3% in Q1 2023, indicating ongoing deleveraging efforts [7][10] - The average household loan increase in the first seven months of 2023 was only 680.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 579.4 billion yuan compared to the previous year [4] - The widening gap between new deposits and new loans, reaching 8.98 trillion yuan, highlights the trend of households prioritizing savings over borrowing [4]