①春季躁动下成交热度较低的热门主题机会：有色/新能源/机器人/半导体等； ②关注业绩预期改善的非银，顺周期（煤炭、有色）。 报告正文 一、春季躁动已经启动 本轮春季躁动或可更多归因于流动性驱动。我们认为春季躁动行情更多为时间统计规律，启动与否不必苛求确切的信号，12/17至今上证指数实现11连 阳，指数点位从3822上升至3969点，全A成交额从1.7万亿上升至2.2万亿，换手率从1.6%提升至1.8%，春季躁动已经启动。我们判断本轮春季躁动可更多 归因为风险偏好回升下的流动性驱动：在美日央行两只靴子落地后，外围不确定干扰得到缓解，对市场风险偏好形成支撑。同时，国内地产风险得到一定 对冲与缓释：一方面，万科债券展期虽未获得通过，但宽限期从5个工作日延长至30个交易日（宽限期届满日定为2026年1月28日），为后续谈判留下更充 裕的缓冲时间；另一方面，12月30日财政部、税务总局联合发布关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告，将未满2年住房销售增值税征收率从5%下调至 3%，通过降低交易成本减少"卖旧买新"的循环阻碍，有助于去库存促进房地产市场预期向好。从资金面上来看，以两融/ETF为代表的资金出现明显放 量，12/ ...

投资要点 市场回顾：本周（2025/12/29-2026/1/2）韩国综合指数、港股恒生科技指数、中国台湾加权指数领涨全球，美股三大股指领跌。A股方面，周期、成长板 块表现较好，一级行业中石油石化、军工、传媒领涨；公用事业跌幅居前。元旦后首个交易日（1月2日），港股迎来"开门红"，恒生科技指数单日大涨 4%，其中半导体、AI算力、互联网巨头方向大涨，显示市场风险偏好回暖。大宗商品方面，本周基本金属、原油上涨，贵金属下跌，其中COMEX白 银、COMEX黄金分别下跌6.39%、4.63%。外汇方面，离岸人民币兑美元汇率继续走强，周五升破6.97。 市场展望：春季躁动提前，牛市格局依旧未改。2026年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年"，牛市基础仍扎实，且春季躁动已提前演绎：一是宏观政策周期来 看，2026年作为十五五开局之年，多部门正密集出台配套产业政策和投资规划，同时财政货币政策的协同发力，为市场营造了友好的流动性环境；二是资 金层面，12月以股票型ETF为代表的机构资金出现抢跑，后续保险资金"开门红"叠加汇率升值驱动下外资回流，增量资金入市有望强化春季行情趋势；三 是基本面预期与产业周期来看，随着PPI降幅收窄，预 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 躁动主线与扩散——策略周聚焦 1、关注春季躁动下成交热度较低的热门主题机会：有色/新能源/机器人/半导 体等。当前热门主题赛道中，除商业航天概念影响下的卫星通信与通信设备成 交热度处于高位，其余有色金属、新能源、机器人、半导体材料设备等主题成 交热度均处于历史中低水平，后续随着春季躁动的持续发酵成交有望向当前热 度偏低主题扩散。 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆资金净流入重回历史高位— —流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-29 《【华创策略】大类资产年关盘点——策略周聚 焦》 2025-12-28 《【华创策略】股票型 ETF 净流入创今年 4 月以 来新高——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计 周报》 2025-12-22 《【华创策略】储备躁动品种——策略周聚焦》 2、关注业绩预期改善的非银，科技制造（电子、电新），顺周期（煤炭、有色）。 ①非银：重视保险短期保费开门红&中期投资收益增厚业绩表现。②顺周期： 经济工作会议定调&"十五五"开局之年，财政发力基建项目有望加码，关注 紧供给的有色/化工/建材/钢铁/煤炭。 风险提示：宏观经济复苏不及预期； ...

Group 1 - The market outlook for January indicates a consensus on asset allocation trends, focusing on industrial catalysts while maintaining a trading mindset. The medium-term trend remains upward, supported by domestic and international monetary easing, with significant potential for household wealth entering the market. However, short-term market movements are driven by narratives, policy games, and industrial catalysts, with weak profit-related drivers [1][8]. - The investment strategy emphasizes a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, recommending investments in assets aligned with market consensus. Key areas of interest in technology include AI computing power, energy storage, and storage chips, while cyclical sectors should focus on intersections of anti-involution and price validation, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and steel [2][8]. Group 2 - The recommended stocks for January include: 1. Dongyangguang (600673.SH): Leveraging its fluorochemical capabilities, the company is advancing into liquid cooling and acquiring a leading AIDC player, with a blueprint for AI infrastructure emerging. The acquisition of Qinhuai Data is progressing, with a total transaction value of 28 billion RMB expected to be completed soon [3][9]. 2. Jinpan Technology (688676.SH): An overseas AIDC core supplier, the company has seen its overseas revenue share exceed 30% in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant growth in data center revenues [13][14]. 3. Yaopi Glass (600819.SH): The company is entering a harvest period for automotive glass, with TCO glass showing substantial growth potential. The transition to high-value products is evident, with a projected net profit growth of 26.2% over the next three years [16][17].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the public fund fee reform has concluded, and insurance companies are expected to perform well, indicating potential investment opportunities in the spring market [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% [11]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.30% week-on-week [6]. Group 2: Insurance Sector - Insurance companies are anticipated to maintain high growth in performance, with short-term results expected to exceed expectations and long-term interest rate spreads likely to improve [17]. - The Ministry of Finance released a draft revision of the accounting standards, enhancing the clarity of profit sources for insurance companies and improving comparability across industries [17]. - Key stocks to watch in the insurance sector include China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, among others [17]. Group 3: Securities Sector - The public fund fee reform is expected to save investors approximately 51 billion yuan annually, with a fee reduction of about 20% [18]. - The reform includes differentiated redemption fee structures aimed at promoting long-term investment and reducing short-term trading behaviors [19]. - The introduction of new REITs regulations is expected to enhance the market's quality and expand opportunities for securities firms [24][28]. Group 4: Valuation and Financial Analysis - China Ping An (601318.SH) has a target price of 85.17 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 8.91 yuan for 2025, reflecting a PE ratio of 7.68 [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) has a target price of 94.21 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 14.04 yuan for 2025, indicating a PE ratio of 4.96 [7]. - The report suggests that the valuation metrics for various companies in the sector indicate potential upside, with several stocks rated as "Buy" [7].

本周三大指数，上证指数涨0.13%，深证成指跌0.58%，创业板指跌1.25%。后市将如何发展？看看机构 怎么说。 中信证券：开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高 我们认为2026年最大的预期差来自于外需与内需的平衡，对外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是 个重要的开端。站在开年，考虑到去年末的资金热度并不算高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上 的概率更高。 广发策略：26年定价逻辑前瞻，"弹簧"未到极限时 展望2026年：预计美联储在2026年降息两次；欧洲央行可能按兵不动，因德国财政刺激带来的增长；日 本央行因其通胀担忧、且日元贬值压力加大，或成为唯一加息的主要央行；新兴市场多数也在宽松周期 中，但可能仅小幅宽松，反映其外需有支撑但内需偏弱。 申万宏源：上证综指连续阳线后，春季行情仍有纵深 春季支撑风险偏好的时间窗口连续：2 月春节前反弹是A 股胜率最高的日历特征之一，同时这也是科技 领域可能兑现重磅催化的窗口。3 月两会可能审议十五五规划正式稿，政策催化可能更加丰富。4 月特 朗普可能访华，中美经贸关系缓和确认期，也是稳定资本市场预期的关键窗口。上证综指连续阳线后， 春季行情仍有纵深。 西部证券：策马乘风 ...

铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：宏观预期支撑，矿价高位震荡 | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条 目 当周值 | | 环 | 比 | | 同 比 | | | 供 应 | 全球发货量 3677 . | 1 | 212 | . | 6 | 197 . | 7 | | | 澳发货量 2039 . | 7 | 150 | . | 5 | -150 | 0 . | | | 巴发货量 944 . | 0 | 84 | 6 . | | 195 . | 5 | | | 力拓-中国发货量 696 . | 3 | 95 | 3 . | | 56 . | 9 | | | BHP-中国发货量 513 . | 4 | -9 | 5 . | | -87 . | 9 | | | FMG-中 ...

来源：国金证券股份有限公司 波动中的定价 过去一段时间，市场呈现的运行状态是：全球风险资产在低波环境中维持震荡上行，而商品侧则在价格 上行的同时伴随波动率抬升。权益市场来看，2026 年首个交易日全球主要股指迎来开门红，港股市场 表现尤为亮眼，涨幅在全球主要股指中较为领先。港股的走强更偏向于美元流动性外溢下对前期"滞 涨"的补涨，同时产业层面的催化进一步推升股价。商品市场来看，本周资产价格出现高位波动，短期 交易行为占据了主导，同时也暴露出低库存环境下的脆弱性。 长期视角看：当前工业金属货值/美国金融资产和广义货币来处在20 年的低位，实物资产长期处于被低 估状态，库存意愿不断下降。展望未来，当需求侧遭遇产业变迁带来的需求结构冲击，而供给侧遇到了 贸易政策变化，此时低库存叠加货币宽松周期使其更易吸纳金融资本并放大资产价格的波动。中期视角 下，AI 投资和全球制造业周期修复仍构成了大宗商品行情的重要驱动。值得一提的是，近期部分未受 上述交易因素影响品种的行情已开始体现基本面定价的逻辑。更优的投资策略是中长期维持做多思路， 热门品种波动率回落后将迎来布局机会。 基本面：扩内需政策与出口韧性继续形成共振 从最新的制 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend from December 29 to December 31, 2025, with the top three broad indices being the Sci-Tech 100 (0.62%), Sci-Tech Composite (0.15%), and Shanghai Composite (0.13%) [13] - The top three sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index were Oil & Petrochemicals (3.92%), National Defense & Military (3.05%), and Media (2.13%) [18] ETF Fund Statistics - The top three types of equity ETFs by fund size change were Theme Index ETF (5.685 billion CNY), Strategy Index ETF (1.945 billion CNY), and Style Index ETF (-161 million CNY) [9] - The largest equity ETFs by fund size change were Nonferrous Metals ETF (3.165 billion CNY), A500 ETF (1.935 billion CNY), and A500 ETF Huatai-PB (1.238 billion CNY) [10] January Market Outlook - The macro timing model for January 2026 scored 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of the Wande All A Index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.18% [19] - The average daily trading volume of the major index exceeded 20 billion CNY, indicating a gradual recovery in trading sentiment [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a proactive growth-oriented ETF allocation based on the optimistic outlook for January [67] - Key sectors to focus on include robotics, industrial nonferrous metals, and satellite communications, which showed significant net inflows [19] Risk Considerations - The model is based on historical data, which may not hold in the future, posing a risk of failure [69] - Potential macroeconomic underperformance and unexpected macro events are also highlighted as risks [69]

市场回顾 上周A股主要指数均上涨，量能小幅提升。 A股主要指数周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/12/22-2025/12/26 申万一级行业周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/12/22-2025/12/26 宏观数据分析 2025年12月24日，央行召开四季度货币政策委员会例会，形势判断上，"供强需弱"依旧，将为经济稳中 向好创造适宜环境，和前几次会议一致。货币方面，"适度宽松"前提不变下央行重提"优化供给，做优 增量、盘活存量"，提法整体较保守，对代表新质生产力的科技企业融资继续给予支持。政策实施方 面，央行强调相机抉择，表明短期货币政策趋于平稳，更多配合财政等在必要时进行发力。并未提到降 准降息等具体措施。后续，货币政策大概率会沿用今年导向，社融总量继续增长但信贷端压力短期应该 难缓解央行货币政策目标。 央行货币政策目标 中期看，科技成长仍是优势方向。当前经济基本面和科技叙事层面并未发生根本性变化，美国也仍在降 息周期中，科技板块中长期逻辑依旧，依然是优先增配方向。而在高切低的另一端，多数红利避险板块 和顺周期板块均有基本面层面的问题或缺乏长期叙事，行情进一步 ...