Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, particularly focusing on the shopping center industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the consumption industry and shopping center sector in China still have significant growth potential, driven by an expected increase in total consumption and a structural recovery [4][5]. - Leading commercial companies have achieved stable same-store growth and expansion through operational alpha, which may lead to a revaluation of IP (Intellectual Property) values [4][5]. - The report draws comparisons with the U.S. commercial real estate market, highlighting that during five interest rate cut cycles, commercial real estate indices consistently yielded positive returns, significantly outperforming other asset classes [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - The domestic consumption sector remains under pressure, with retail sales growth gradually recovering to +4.3% as of October 2025, while CPI remains low at +0.2% [14][21]. - Compared to the U.S. and Japan during their real estate crises, China's consumption resilience is still relatively strong [14][21]. - Long-term growth potential exists in the consumption sector, particularly in shopping centers, as GDP per capita and retail sales per capita are expected to rise [28][31]. Mid-level Perspective - As of Q3 2025, the total area of centralized commercial space in China reached 661 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of +4.4% [49]. - The number of new openings has decreased, but the proportion of reopened projects after adjustments has increased, indicating a shift in strategy [53]. - The report notes that 57% of existing projects have been open for over five years, highlighting the importance of effective asset management [53]. Micro Perspective - Leading companies in the sector exhibit significant operational efficiency, with top firms showing a concentration of 19% in opening area as of 2024 [4][5]. - Key companies are expected to see a revaluation of their IP, with potential increases of 39% for China Resources Land and 33% for New World Development [4][5]. - The report indicates that the average operating profit margin for IP is between 55% and 84%, with dividend yields for major companies exceeding 5% [4][5]. U.S. Market Review - The report highlights that during five interest rate cut cycles, the NCREIF commercial real estate price index achieved an average return of 31%, second only to gold [4][5]. - The long-term same-store NOI (Net Operating Income) growth in the U.S. has been stable, correlating positively with GDP growth [4][5]. Catalysts for Growth - The report suggests that the high barriers to entry in commercial operations will enhance the competitive advantage of leading firms, especially as the "residential development supports commercial" model weakens [4][5]. - The introduction of C-REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) is expected to further support the revaluation of commercial assets [4][5].

港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、名创优品等新消费龙头，又包含腾讯、快手、 阿里巴巴、小米等互联网电商龙头，科技+消费属性突出。 每日经济新闻 11月20日，财政部、商务部联合正式公示消费新业态新模式新场景试点50个拟入选城市名单。中央财政 将按城市规模给予最高4亿元/城的资金补助，从健全首发经济服务体系、创新多元化服务消费场景、支 持优质消费资源与知名IP跨界联名三大维度，为消费市场提质扩容。12月日，浙江《推动经济高质量发 展若干政策（2026年版）（征求意见稿）》近日公开征求意见，在推进服务业扩能提质和消费转型升级 方面，《征求意见稿》提出以更大力度推动消费转型升级，加快消费新业态新模式新场景培育，省市县 联动发放消费券，带动商品消费与文旅、体育、养老等服务消费联动发展。 华泰证券认为，地产周期尤其是地产价格变化仍然是判断26年消费复苏力度与速度的胜负手，在26年房 价结构性企稳的预期下，居民资产负债表修复有望带动消费倾向边际改善；同时，可能的供给与需求政 策刺激将提振居民消费意愿。必选消 ...

| | | [Table_Report] 相关报告 服务消费景气提升，科技硬件延续涨价 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 中观景气 12 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 中观景气延续分化的增长格局，新兴科技景气仍强，高性能存储价格延续快速上涨， 游戏供给偏宽松；服务消费景气明显提升，地产周期和耐用品需求仍承压。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 陶前陈(研究助理) | | | 0755-23976164 | | | taoqianchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070014 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | 资产概览：银价铜价创历史新高 2025.12.01 外资与融资资金重回流入 2025.12.01 消费景气线索增多，科技制造延续增长 2025.11.26 ETF 流入明显，融资资金与外资有所流出 2025.11.24 资产概览：美元兑日元逼近 160 关口 2025.11.24 策 略 研 究 告 请务必阅读正文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to decline, with major indices experiencing losses, while the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) ETFs show resilience and growth amid a recovering market sentiment in the TCM sector [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51% to 3878 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.12% [1]. - The total market turnover reached 1.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 763 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3800 stocks declining [1]. TCM ETFs - TCM ETFs, including the TCM ETF, TCM ETF Huatai-PB, and TCM 50 ETF, experienced gains, with respective increases of 0.92%, 0.90%, and 0.81% [2]. - The TCM ETF tracks the CSI Traditional Chinese Medicine Index, with key stocks including Yunnan Baiyao, Pien Tze Huang, and Tong Ren Tang [1][2]. TCM Market Trends - The TCM market is showing signs of recovery, with increased market activity and positive investment sentiment [2]. - The TCM sector benefits from both pharmaceutical and consumer attributes, with a high dividend yield of 2.69% over the past 12 months, placing it in the 90.91% historical percentile since its inception [2]. Price Governance in TCM - Multiple regions in China have initiated price governance for traditional Chinese medicine, aiming to create a unified and competitive drug market [3][4]. - The focus is on high-priced TCM products with significant clinical usage, particularly those sold primarily in the outpatient market [4]. Industry Dynamics - The ongoing price governance and centralized procurement are expected to lead to price convergence between hospital and outpatient markets, reshaping competitive factors in the industry [4]. - Companies with unique products, strong clinical value, and effective cost control are likely to gain competitive advantages [4]. Investment Themes - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. Price governance, focusing on price reductions and market share for competitive products [5]. 2. Consumption recovery, driven by macroeconomic improvement and aging population, benefiting TCM sales [6]. 3. State-owned enterprise reform, which is expected to enhance performance and create investment opportunities [6]. Recommended Investment Targets - Companies with strong R&D capabilities, unique products, and those less affected by centralized procurement are recommended for investment [6]. - Emphasis is placed on TCM brands with strong market presence and those benefiting from state-owned enterprise reforms [6].

Core Insights - The company is increasing investments in user, rider, merchant subsidies, and ecosystem development to consolidate market share amid intensified competition in the instant delivery sector [1] - The company has revised its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to -19.9 billion, 32.2 billion, and 54.2 billion yuan, respectively, down from -2.6 billion, 35.8 billion, and 58.8 billion yuan [1] - The company anticipates a return to profitability in 2026 as the competitive landscape stabilizes, with a projected net profit growth rate of 68.4% in 2027 [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 95.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 97.47 billion yuan [2] - The non-IFRS net loss for Q3 2025 was 16.01 billion yuan, worse than Bloomberg's consensus estimate of a loss of 13.96 billion yuan, primarily due to fierce competition in the food delivery sector [2] - Core business revenue declined by 2.8% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan and an operating loss margin of 20.9% [2] Business Segments - The delivery service revenue fell by 17.1% year-on-year, attributed to increased subsidies and competitive pressures in the food delivery market [2] - New business revenue grew by 15.9% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan, but the loss margin improved by 2.5 percentage points, mainly due to enhanced efficiency in the Hong Kong and Middle Eastern markets [2] - The company plans to pilot its new business, Keeta, in Brazil in late October 2025, expecting to continue significant investments during the initial phase [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of consumer sectors, highlighting various sub-sectors such as food and beverage, textiles, home appliances, retail, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture, each with specific growth opportunities and market dynamics [5][7][13][16][21]. Summary by Relevant Sections Food and Beverage - Moutai is focusing on high-quality development despite industry pressures, with a positive outlook for structural growth in the food sector [5]. - Companies like Ximai Foods are expanding their product lines and channels, with a strong growth forecast for Q4 [6]. Textiles - The U.S. apparel market is showing growth, with retail sales increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, while wholesale sales have declined [7]. - Low inventory levels in the U.S. suggest a potential inventory replenishment phase starting soon [8]. Home Appliances - The report highlights key catalysts for companies like XGIMI, including supply-side improvements and new product launches expected to drive significant revenue growth [13][14]. Retail - The retail sector is experiencing improvements in same-store sales and profitability, with major chains expanding their store counts significantly [15]. Pharmaceuticals - The small nucleic acid industry is poised for breakthroughs, with a focus on innovative delivery platforms and competitive advantages for Chinese companies [16][17]. Agriculture - The report notes accelerated capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, with a recommendation for quality breeding stocks amid favorable price expectations [21]. - The planting sector is expected to benefit from intensified policy support for food security [21]. Commercial Services - The hospitality sector is seeing a recovery in demand, with improved revenue per available room (RevPAR) and recommendations for leading hotel brands [18].

Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy for 2025 is characterized by increased intensity, advanced timing, and enhanced flexibility, reflecting a strong intent to support the economy. The fiscal financing scale is expected to reach a historical high of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [2][8] - In the first three quarters of 2025, broad fiscal expenditure is projected to grow by 7.9% year-on-year, indicating a high level of spending intensity [2][8] - The monetary policy is expected to return to a "moderately loose" tone, focusing on guiding expectations and improving transmission channels, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts compared to 2024 [8] Group 2: Cosmetics and Aesthetic Medicine Industry - The international cosmetics and aesthetic medicine companies are experiencing a strategic adjustment in China, with signs of recovery in the market. The third quarter of 2025 shows a positive revenue growth trend in China, driven by promotional events [3][11] - Key recommendations for the cosmetics sector include companies with strong channel and brand matrices such as Maogeping, Shangmei, and Proya, while companies like Marubi and Huaxi Biological are expected to see marginal improvements in growth [3][11] - In the aesthetic medicine sector, companies with high R&D barriers and strong profitability are favored, with a focus on major product drivers and extensive product pipelines [3][11] Group 3: Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) - Kweichow Moutai maintains a buy rating with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 90.47 billion, 95.02 billion, and 101.53 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20x, 19x, and 18x [12][10] - The company emphasizes its strong brand barrier and excellent business model, which contribute to stable long-term profitability and high cash flow quality [12][10] - Moutai's strategy includes a focus on sustainable development and a commitment to not sacrificing long-term growth for short-term gains, with expectations for stable growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [13][10]

Core Insights - The conference "Kaimen 2026 Annual Conference" focused on the theme "Resilience Meets Future," gathering industry leaders to discuss the beverage sector's path through cycles and towards future growth [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The founder of Meituan Longzhu Fund, Zhu Yonghua, predicts that the tea and coffee sectors will see the emergence of approximately six new publicly listed companies in the next 5-10 years, with a combined market size potentially reaching one trillion yuan [1] - Zhu emphasizes that China's consumer capacity and potential surpass that of the United States, indicating a strong future for the domestic market [5] Group 2: Investment Insights - Zhu reflects on his investment journey, noting that the successful listing of Gu Ming has yielded significant returns, with an estimated profit of around 5 billion yuan for the fund [4] - The investment landscape has changed, with a notable decline in the number of projects being considered, dropping from around 1,000 annually to a much lower figure, attributed to decreased demand and cautious investor sentiment [5] Group 3: Recovery Signals - There are signs of recovery in the secondary market, which are beginning to influence the primary market, suggesting a potential resurgence in entrepreneurial confidence [6] - The long-term observation of the real estate market's recovery is seen as a key factor that could trigger a wave of economic benefits when combined with capital market strategies [7]

Core Insights - The conference "Kaimen 2026 Annual Conference" focused on the theme "Resilience Meets Future," gathering industry leaders to discuss the beverage sector's path through cycles and towards future growth [1] - Zhu Yonghua, a prominent investor, shared insights on the Chinese consumer market, predicting that the tea and coffee sectors will see the emergence of approximately six new publicly listed companies in the next 5-10 years, with a combined market size potentially reaching trillions [1][3] Investment Landscape - Zhu highlighted a significant decline in the number of investment opportunities, with the team reviewing around 1,000 projects annually but only investing in 2-3 since 2022, indicating a challenging market environment [5] - The market has shown signs of recovery, particularly with successful IPOs of companies like Gu Ming and Mi Xue Bing Cheng, which exceeded expectations and revitalized investor confidence [6] Consumer Behavior - The presentation emphasized changes in consumer spending patterns, particularly among middle-aged consumers (ages 35-50), who are reducing their dining frequency and opting for lower-priced options [8] - Young consumers (ages 18-30) exhibit different spending behaviors, focusing more on spiritual needs rather than traditional consumption, with a notable interest in IP products and experiences like concerts [10][12] Market Opportunities - The tea and coffee markets are identified as having the most significant growth potential, with the current market size for tea nearing 300 billion and coffee projected to reach 600 billion [12] - The combined tea and coffee market is expected to become a trillion-dollar market, with the potential for six additional companies to go public in the next five years [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the international cosmetics and medical beauty industry, indicating a recovery trend in the Chinese market and a cautious approach towards North America due to economic factors [2][3]. Core Insights - The global beauty market is projected to grow at a rate of 4.5% in 2024, a decline from the 8% growth seen in 2023, with significant regional disparities in performance [3][13]. - The Chinese market showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with major international brands reporting positive revenue growth after a period of decline [3][19]. - Companies like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder are adjusting their strategies to enhance their market presence in China, with Estée Lauder reporting an 8.6% revenue growth in Q3 2025 [3][47]. Summary by Sections Global Market Overview - The global beauty market is experiencing a slowdown, with North America showing signs of weakness while Europe outperforms other regions with a 7.5% growth [3][13]. - The North Asia market, particularly China, has faced a decline of 2%, marking it as the weakest among major beauty markets [3][13]. L'Oréal - L'Oréal's revenue growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 1.2%, with a slight improvement in Q3 2025, indicating a recovery from previous declines [3][27]. - The company is focusing on acquisitions and enhancing its brand portfolio, particularly in the Chinese market, where it aims to leverage online channels [3][24]. Estée Lauder - Estée Lauder's Q3 2025 revenue growth reached 8.6%, marking a significant turnaround after four consecutive quarters of decline [3][47]. - The company is implementing a strategic overhaul to address previous challenges, including inventory issues and competition from local brands [3][47]. Shiseido - Shiseido reported an 8% revenue growth in the Chinese market for Q3 2025, although it continues to face macroeconomic challenges [3][19]. - The company is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with its premium brands performing better than its main brand [3][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong channel and brand matrices, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shanghai Jahwa, as well as those expected to see marginal improvements in growth, like Marubi and Betaini [4][5]. - In the medical beauty sector, companies with high R&D barriers and strong profitability, such as Ai Meike, are highlighted as key investment opportunities [4][5].