Group 1 - The central banks are expected to maintain a cautious approach towards interest rate decisions, with the Federal Reserve unlikely to implement significant rate cuts despite political pressure [1][2] - The market anticipates a potential resumption of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle in September, but the extent of any cuts is expected to be limited to 25 basis points rather than 50 [2] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, and is expected to conclude its current easing cycle after November [3] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings indicates that Indian companies are not significantly impacted by U.S. tariffs, but sectors like pharmaceuticals may face increased pressure due to secondary effects of tariffs [4] - If the U.S. maintains higher tariffs compared to other Asian markets, it could pose moderate downside risks to India's projected economic growth rate of 6.5% for FY2026 [4] - The potential for over-supply shifts towards India due to U.S. tariffs could lead to a decrease in domestic prices for products like steel and chemicals, creating a ripple effect in the market [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is experiencing high - level fluctuations due to unclear inflation prospects. The price of precious metals is affected by factors such as the US inflation outlook, macro - data, and geopolitical situations. It is expected that precious metals will continue to fluctuate at high levels. If the precious metals maintain a bullish trend, gold has higher certainty due to its monetary and safe - haven attributes, while silver may have greater upside potential under the support of gold and abundant liquidity [3][8][72]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Performance**: London gold traded between $3405 - $3330 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 1.86%. London silver traded between $38.7 - $37.5, with a weekly decline of 0.86%. Shanghai gold traded between 789 - 773 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.52%. Shanghai silver traded between 9368 - 9135 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.8%. The US dollar index fell to the 97 - 98 range, with a weekly decline of 0.33%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded from its previous low, closing at 4.32% on Friday [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The market is trading around the US inflation outlook. The unexpected PPI data has increased concerns about inflation and dampened interest - rate cut expectations, which has hindered the rebound of precious metals. The possibility of a缓和 in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has also put pressure on precious metals [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options trading, it is advisable to wait and see [11]. 2. Macro - level Data Tracking - **US Economic Growth**: The US GDP growth in the second quarter was 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%. However, a detailed analysis shows that the growth may be illusory. The significant decline in imports has inflated the net - export component, and the consumption and investment sectors are showing signs of weakness. Retail data is volatile, and consumer confidence and inflation expectations are also affected by tariffs [26][28]. - **PMI Indicators**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in July unexpectedly dropped to 48, the lowest since October 2024. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8. Tariffs have brought price pressures and led to a contraction in orders and employment [33]. - **Employment**: The seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in July were 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The employment data for May and June was significantly revised downward, causing market panic and raising questions about data credibility [38]. - **Inflation**: The US CPI in July showed a moderate rebound, and the PPI reached a high since February. The impact of tariffs on inflation may be further transmitted in the future. Although some tariffs have been postponed or cancelled, the risk of stagflation has not been eliminated [40][42]. 3. Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The report presents the trends of gold and silver ETF positions and CFTC speculative net positions, but no specific analysis is provided [46]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the total global gold supply increased by 1% to 4,974 tons, and the total demand increased by 1% to 4,554 tons. Investment demand reached a four - year high, while jewelry consumption hit a record low. Central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold for the third consecutive year. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase, and investment, central - bank purchases, and technology demand are likely to be positive factors, while jewelry demand may be under pressure [50]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global silver supply was 31,573 tons, an increase of 2% year - on - year, and the demand was 36,208 tons, a decrease of 3% year - on - year, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 4,634 tons. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2% to 32,055 tons, and the demand is expected to decrease slightly, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3,658 tons. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry, which has been growing rapidly, is likely to slow down [62]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Since 2022, central banks around the world have been actively buying gold, especially developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India. China has been increasing its gold reserves for five consecutive months since November 2024 [60].

中金公司研报表示，近期市场对美联储降息的定价大幅提升，美联储内部分歧加剧，既有赞同降息也有 主张观望的声音。美国总统特朗普和财政部长贝森特等人也在向美联储施压，呼吁大幅度降低利率。但 我们认为，现实条件并不支持大幅降息，当前美国面临的最大风险是"类滞胀"，而降息并不能解决这一 矛盾。货币政策仍应以稳定通胀（预期）为核心，而非追求短期增长或屈从于政治压力。因此我们判 断，美联储在降息决策上将保持谨慎，不会大幅宽松。就业放缓与通胀粘性并存，货币政策路径的变数 将大大提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has significantly increased the pricing for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but internal divisions within the Fed suggest a cautious approach to any substantial easing, primarily due to the risk of "stagflation" rather than a straightforward demand decline [2][13]. Group 1: Reasons Against Significant Rate Cuts - Reason 1: Rate cuts cannot address "stagflation" as the U.S. economy faces increasing downward pressure on total demand, with private sector final sales declining at an annualized rate of 1.2% in Q2, the lowest level in 2023 [2][8]. - Reason 2: The assumption of "ignoring inflation" is invalid, as tariff-induced inflation is not fully passed on to consumers, and a significant rate cut could lead to widespread price increases, exacerbating inflation rather than alleviating it [8][9]. - Reason 3: Historical data shows that the Fed has only cut rates once in an environment where core CPI growth exceeded 3%, and a repeat of such a scenario could lead to increased yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, indicating market skepticism about the Fed's ability to control inflation [9][12]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Employment growth has slowed, with an average of 35,000 new non-farm jobs added over the last three months, indicating a cooling labor market [2][8]. - Inflation pressures are still building, as evidenced by the rebound in core CPI and PPI growth rates in July, alongside a decline in consumer confidence but a rise in inflation expectations [2][6]. - The potential for significant market volatility exists if the Fed were to implement large rate cuts, which could undermine trust in the Fed's inflation control measures and lead to a detrimental cycle of economic instability [12][13].

Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. is currently experiencing "quasi-stagflation," characterized by economic weakness and commodity inflation coexisting[1] - Manufacturing and real estate sectors have shown varying degrees of weakness, with the July ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48%, the lowest this year[6] - The primary drivers of U.S. economic growth are showing marginal weakness, with Q2 GDP growth at an annualized rate of 3.0%, largely due to a contraction in imports[6] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Current inflation may not be sufficient to prevent the restart of interest rate cuts, as resilient core service inflation has not increased significantly[10] - The July CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, indicating that overall inflation is not as strong as anticipated[11] - Market expectations currently include three rate cuts, but this may be adjusted based on the pace of unemployment rate increases[22] Group 3: Unemployment Trends - The speed of the increase in the unemployment rate may be a key factor in determining the extent of interest rate cuts, with projections suggesting it may rise to 4.4%-4.5% by year-end[17] - The unemployment rate has fluctuated between 4.0%-4.2% this year, indicating a relatively stable labor market[21] Group 4: Risks and Market Outlook - Potential risk factors include geopolitical risks, unexpected increases in international oil prices, and a more significant-than-expected weakening of the U.S. labor market[26] - The dollar index may have further downside potential, and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to perform better than long-term bonds[23]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to shift from liquidity-driven to performance-driven and policy validation phases as the focus moves from "expectation" to "realization" in August [1] - The refinancing market in Hong Kong has seen explosive growth, with over 240 companies raising a total of HKD 183.9 billion, which is 2.17 times the total refinancing amount for the entire year of 2024 [1] - Key sectors to focus on include solar energy, rare earths, lithium, and express delivery, which directly benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, as well as pharmaceuticals and technology with high growth potential [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is entering a "high for longer" phase with both tariffs and interest rates expected to remain elevated, leading to "stagflation-like" pressures [2] - The consumer electronics industry is experiencing a recovery, with tablet shipments expected to reach 39 million units in Q2 2025, a 9% year-on-year increase [2] - Major tech companies like Google and Microsoft are increasing their capital expenditure, indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure and hardware [3] Group 3 - The global PC shipment volume is projected to grow by 8.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by factors such as the end of Windows 10 support and the rise of AI PCs [4] - AI chip and hardware technology advancements are expected to boost demand for high-performance computing, with OpenAI's release of GPT-5 enhancing the need for inference computing power [4] - The domestic semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, with companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reporting better-than-expected earnings [4] Group 4 - The ChiNext Index has seen a strong increase of 3.10%, with notable gains from companies like Sanhuan Group and Xinyi Technology [7] - The ChiNext ETF has shown a year-to-date net value increase of 11.19%, with a maximum monthly return of 37.37% since its inception [8] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext Index account for 52.52% of the index, with Ningde Times and Dongfang Wealth being the most significant contributors [10]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. economy is entering a "high-high" era, characterized by prolonged high tariffs and interest rates, which may lead to "quasi-stagflation" pressures [1] Group 1 - The combination of high tariffs and interest rates presents a typical policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve [1]

中金公司研报指出，当前美国经济正在步入"双高"时代——关税与利率或都将长期维持高位（high for longer）。我们认为这一组合将带来"类滞胀"压力：从"滞"的角度来看，关税本质上是一种税收，它会 推高进口商品成本，增加美国企业和消费者负担。若关税成本由企业承担，则会导致利润下降、投资与 招聘意愿减弱；若由消费者承担，则会削弱购买力，抑制消费支出。无论谁承担，最终结果都是抑制总 需求。与此同时，美联储因担心通胀而迟迟未能降息，导致利率居高不下，抑制了利率敏感型行业、尤 其是房地产的复苏。这将加大美国增长放缓压力，劳动力市场也随之承压。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. economy is entering a "high for longer" era characterized by sustained high tariffs and interest rates, leading to "stagflation-like" pressures that suppress overall demand and economic growth [3][4]. Group 1: Stagnation Factors - The combination of high tariffs and high interest rates is significantly suppressing demand in the U.S. economy. The effective average tariff rate is projected to rise from 17.3% to 20.5%, indicating a long-term institutionalization of tariff policies [6][11]. - Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which can either reduce corporate profits or diminish consumer purchasing power, ultimately leading to suppressed total demand [6][7]. - Recent data shows a significant increase in U.S. tariff revenue, reaching $27 billion in June, indicating that the impact of tariffs is becoming more pronounced [7][9]. - High interest rates, maintained by the Federal Reserve due to inflation concerns, are particularly detrimental to interest-sensitive sectors like real estate, which has seen negative growth in investment since Q1 [11][15]. - The U.S. GDP data indicates a slowdown in domestic private sector final sales, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, marking the third consecutive quarter of deceleration [15][16]. Group 2: Inflationary Pressures - Despite many companies absorbing tariff costs to maintain market share, the institutionalization of tariffs may lead to increased prices for consumers as companies face squeezed profit margins [29][31]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June shows rising prices in certain goods, indicating that tariff costs are beginning to affect retail prices [31][33]. - Predictions suggest that retail automobile prices may rise by 4% to 8% by the end of the year, contributing to upward pressure on core inflation [33][34]. Group 3: AI as a Counterbalancing Factor - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is driving increased capital expenditure in sectors such as data centers, chip manufacturing, and software development, partially offsetting the negative impacts of high tariffs and interest rates [19][20]. - Since the release of ChatGPT, spending on data center construction has surged, nearing levels of office building expenditures, with a 13.9% year-on-year increase in investments related to AI [19][21]. - However, AI's growth may also lead to structural challenges, such as job displacement for less skilled workers, contributing to a rising unemployment rate among younger demographics [25][27]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Uncertainty - The Federal Reserve faces a policy dilemma with simultaneous economic slowdown and persistent inflation, leading to internal divisions among officials regarding interest rate decisions [36][39]. - Recent statements from various Federal Reserve officials reflect a lack of consensus on whether to lower rates or maintain them, increasing uncertainty in monetary policy and market volatility [36][39].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The U.S. technology sector is experiencing significant divergence from traditional industries, with AI-driven tech companies showing strong performance while other sectors suffer from high interest rates and tariffs [1][3][4] - The S&P 500 index growth is primarily attributed to technology stocks, indicating structural economic differences [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Trends**: In Q2 2025, investments related to AI in electricity, communications, computer equipment, and software grew by 13.9%, while other fixed asset investments declined by 1.7% [5] - **Import Data**: Computer and related equipment imports surged by 54.7% in Q2 2025, the highest in 20 years, while remaining imports showed a negative growth of 4% [6][7] - **Real Estate Market**: The U.S. real estate market remains sluggish, with negative growth for two consecutive quarters due to high mortgage rates and increased costs from tariffs [8] - **Construction Investment**: Construction investment has also been weak, attributed to the reduction of subsidies from the Biden administration and low oil prices affecting energy sector investments [9][10] - **AI's Economic Role**: While AI investments are growing rapidly, they currently cannot fully support the U.S. economy due to the limited number of jobs in the sector and its negative impact on the labor market [11] - **GDP Growth**: The rebound in Q2 2025 GDP to 3.0% was mainly due to import/export fluctuations and inventory changes, indicating underlying domestic demand is slowing [12] Additional Important Insights - **Inflation Risks**: There are signs of internal stagflation in the U.S. economy, with rising service sector prices and declining new orders [15] - **Corporate Profitability**: High tariffs are significantly suppressing corporate profit margins, as companies are reluctant to raise prices to maintain market share [16] - **Global Tariff Impact**: High global tariffs are expected to increase future price pressures on consumers, particularly in the automotive sector [17][21] - **Inflation Trends**: A structural rise in inflation is anticipated in the second half of 2025, driven by core commodity price increases [19] - **Federal Reserve Leadership**: The potential nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair is seen as favorable due to his academic background and previous hawkish stance, though his loyalty to Trump is questioned [20][22][24] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state of the U.S. economy, particularly the technology sector, investment trends, and implications for inflation and Federal Reserve policies.