Economic Outlook - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to "explore economic potential" and integrate policy effects, shifting focus from external uncertainties to overall changes in the environment[2] - The assessment of risks has cooled, with a shift from "guarding against systemic risks" to "orderly resolution of local government debt risks" for 2026[2] - The focus for 2026 will be on "developing new productive forces" and "unifying the national market," indicating a structural shift in economic strategy[4] Demand-Side Strategies - The conference highlighted the need to "stabilize investment" and "support the real estate market," indicating a structural optimization towards real economy stability[5] - A new emphasis on "urban and rural residents' income increase plans" was introduced, expanding the scope of income growth initiatives[5] - The approach to real estate has become more proactive, with policies encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing[5] Supply-Side Initiatives - The focus on "deepening the rectification of 'involutionary' competition" and reinforcing the role of enterprises in innovation was emphasized[6] - The "dual carbon" strategy will lead to significant energy efficiency improvements and the establishment of a new energy system[7] Policy Framework - The monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with a focus on maintaining liquidity and promoting economic stability and reasonable price recovery[8] - Fiscal policy will maintain necessary deficits and optimize expenditure structures, rather than expanding beyond 2025 levels[8] - The goal of monetary policy will include combating deflation, indicating a shift towards stabilizing prices and supporting economic growth[8] Asset Class Outlook - The report suggests that the risks associated with external and internal factors have decreased compared to 2025, with a focus on balancing asset prices and expanding domestic demand[10] - Investors are advised to consider a structural rebalancing in 2026, increasing allocations towards stock market profitability and commodity market inflation trends[10] - The stability of the US dollar and its impact on domestic liquidity will be crucial for the macroeconomic outlook[11]

2025 年 12 月 12 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 许潇琦 S0350525080004 xuxq01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 实施城乡居民增收计划，推动投资止跌回稳 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议解读 事件： 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。中共中央总书记、 国家主席、中央军委主席习近平出席会议并发表重要讲话。 投资要点： 最近一年走势 相关报告 《公募 REITs 月报：一级市场项目进展顺利，产业 园区板块承压*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-12-04 《公募 REITs 月报：二级市场整体承压，新基建板 块迎结构性行情*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-11-05 《党的二十届四中全会解读与比较：承前启后的关 键布局*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-10-25 宜均衡配置*林加力，许潇琦，袁雨琦》—— 2025-10-17 《公募 REITs 月报：一级市场项目进展顺利，二级 市场收益承压*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-10-10 国海证券研 ...

首次在中央文件提出"五个必须"，这既是对去年经济工作规律性认识的总结和升华，又对明年经济工作具有重要指导意义 文｜《财经》记者 孙颖妮 编辑 | 王延春 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。 回顾即将过去的2025年，会议指出，今年是"很不平凡的一年"。中国社科院美国研究所研究员、副所长徐奇渊向《财经》表示，今年的确很不平 凡，2024年末，在中美贸易摩擦背景下，国内外诸多经济学家对今年的经济增长呈悲观态度，各类国际经济机构对今年中国经济增速的预测只是 略高于4%，但是后来我们都看到，中国经济扛住了关税战的冲击，外部环境还实现了阶段性缓和。今年外贸表现大超预期，总体经济增速也较平 稳，近期国际经济机构普遍上调中国增速预期，这表明中国经济具有较大韧性。 对于全年的经济增速，中国金融四十人研究院预计，在上一轮增量政策的支持下，全年5%的增长目标能如期实现，四季度经济仍能保持平稳运 行。 《财经》注意到，12月以来，多家国际机构也上调中国经济增速预期，如IMF预计2025年中国经济增速为5%，较10月预测上调0.2个百分点。世界 银行预测为4.9%，较6月 ...

来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 12月12日，海通发展跌0.89%，成交额2.41亿元，换手率6.98%，总市值113.88亿元。 异动分析 海峡两岸+福建自贸区+航运概念+统一大市场+人民币贬值受益 1、公司位于福建省福州市台江区长汀街23号升龙环球大厦42层。公司主要从事国内沿海以及国际远洋 的干散货运输业务。公司主要产品和服务为境内航区运输业务、境外航区运输业务。经过多年的积累， 公司已发展成为国内民营干散货航运领域的龙头企业之一。 2、公司办公地址处于福建省福州市台江区长汀街23号升龙环球大厦42层 3、公司主要从事国内沿海以及国际远洋的干散货运输业务。公司主要产品和服务为境内航区运输业 务、境外航区运输业务。 4、公司2023年半年报公告：公司主要从事国内沿海以及国际远洋的干散货运输业务。经过多年的积 累，公司已发展成为国内民营干散货航运领域的龙头企业之一。境内沿海运输方面，公司主要运输的货 物为煤炭，现已成为环渤海湾到长江口岸的进江航线中煤炭运输货运量最大的民营航运企业之一，同时 积极拓展铁矿、水渣等其他干散货物的运输业务。 区间今日近3日近5日近10日近20日主力净流入-1842.54万-9994. ...

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，全面总结2025年经济工作，深刻分析当前经济形势， 并部署2026年经济工作。 "2026年是'十五五'开局年，也是第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局之后'再出发'的关键节 点。"东方证券研究所所长黄燕铭在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，立足当下，会议对2026年经济 环境的总体判断是"外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域风险隐患较多"，相较于 去年表述，更加直接地点出"供强需弱"这一核心矛盾。同时会议也提到，"这些大多是发展中、转型中 的问题，经过努力是可以解决的，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变"，因此可以期待 的是，未来政策在提振需求、优化供给这一主线上将更为聚焦。 稳中求进提质效 以创新驱动培育新动能、推动产业升级，是本次会议部署的重点任务。会议明确，坚持创新驱动，加紧 培育壮大新动能。 黄燕铭分析称，本次会议有一个重要特征就是对创新驱动以及"新动能"的表述变得更加"广义"。去年中 央经济工作会议中，"创新"相关段落的表述为"以科技创新引领新质生产力发展"，主要聚焦新技术以及 培育新技术的金融与营商环境，但今年紧接在"内需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the Chinese economy is not merely relying on luck for 2026, but rather on patience, structure, and practical efforts, suggesting a steady rhythm will lead to faster progress [5] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The year-end review and planning for the upcoming year highlight the importance of addressing pressures while maintaining a clear long-term positive outlook, which serves as a stabilizing factor [4] - The policy approach is characterized as a combination of precise measures, with continued active fiscal policies and flexible monetary policies aimed at boosting consumption, investment, and innovation simultaneously [4] - The focus on domestic demand is prioritized, with a clear logic that stabilizing income and consumption will naturally stabilize expectations [4] Group 2: Structural Changes - The article identifies new productive forces, artificial intelligence, and green transformation as key areas for economic acceleration, emphasizing the need to optimize new growth while revitalizing existing resources [4] - The stance against "involutionary competition" indicates a shift towards higher quality economic development rather than mere expansion [4] Group 3: Reform and Opening Up - Ongoing reforms in the unified market, private economy, and capital markets are highlighted, along with a shift in foreign trade focus from goods to services and digital trade, enhancing the attractiveness of the Chinese market [4] - The article suggests that true strength comes from freedom within order, reflecting a commitment to reform and opening up [4] Group 4: Social Welfare - The emphasis remains on improving livelihoods through concrete actions in employment, education, healthcare, and housing, reinforcing that stabilizing expectations equates to stabilizing confidence [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a more proactive macro policy to enhance economic stability and growth, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, while addressing risks in key areas to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Challenges - The economic growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.2%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [4]. - Despite a resilient export growth of 6.2% year-on-year from January to November, domestic demand remains weak, with retail sales growing only 4.3% and fixed asset investment declining by 1.7% during the same period [3][4]. - The government aims to achieve a growth target of around 5% for the year, despite facing downward pressure in the fourth quarter [4][6]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The conference outlines eight key tasks for 2026, including prioritizing domestic demand and fostering innovation-driven growth [1][5]. - A more proactive fiscal policy is anticipated, with the deficit rate expected to rise from 3% in 2024 to 4% in 2025, alongside increased local special bonds and long-term special bonds [8][10]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with potential interest rate cuts expected in early 2026 [9][11]. Group 3: Investment and Consumption - The government plans to enhance investment by increasing central budget investments and optimizing the use of local government special bonds, with a focus on revitalizing private investment [13][15]. - The "Two New" policies, aimed at large-scale equipment updates and consumption upgrades, will continue to be implemented, with significant funds allocated to support these initiatives [13][15]. - Despite high growth rates in certain consumer goods, overall consumption growth remains low, necessitating further measures to unlock consumer potential [14]. Group 4: Risk Management and Structural Reforms - The conference stresses the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and managing local government debt risks, with specific measures to encourage the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing projects [21][22]. - Efforts to clear overdue payments to enterprises are highlighted as a means to improve cash flow and facilitate smoother financial operations [18][22]. - Structural reforms will focus on enhancing the quality of competition and addressing issues related to "involution" in various industries [17][20].

2025 年 12 月 12 日 宏观点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 中央经济工作会议的六大关键词 宏观点评 最近一年走势 相关报告 《2026 年宏观经济展望：变局中的突围*夏磊》— —2025-11-20 《宏观深度研究：从成交结构看购房者行为变化* 夏磊》——2025-10-29 《学习四中全会精神的五点心得*夏磊》—— 2025-10-24 《美联储议息会议点评：一次风险缓释的美联储降 息*夏磊》——2025-09-18 《全球贸易系列研究之一：贸易格局变迁中，谁是 耀眼的那颗星？*夏磊》——2025-09-11 事件： 2025 年 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在京召开，总结 2025 年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。 投资要点: 2026 年是"十五五"规划开局之年，做好明年的经济工作，对于实 现"十五五"规划良好开局、奠定未来五年发展基础至关重要。本 次中央经济工作会议在承前启后的关键节点召开，全面部署明年经 济工作的总体要求、政策取向和重点任务，意义重大 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yongshuntai has established five production bases along the national coastline to enhance its supply chain efficiency and meet regional demand for malt products, with plans for further optimization of capacity and layout in response to strategic development needs [1]. Group 1: Production Capacity and Layout - The company has set up five production bases to cover areas with high beer consumption in China, addressing the economic transportation radius required for its malt products [1]. - Future plans include optimizing the capacity structure and layout to better meet customer demands based on strategic development needs [1].

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 12 月 12 日 存量挖潜，宽松深入——中央经济工作会议点评 团队成员 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。我们认为，政策 层面对经济运行中的挑战有明确认识，明年经济工作重点将是优化供 给，存量挖潜，财政货币双扩张，实现更大政策效能促进增长和物价 回升，政策评估兼顾存量和增量确保协同，增加居民收入扩大消费， 中央财政扩张维稳投资，以提质优化为主线促进产业健康发展，以绿 色基建促进能源转型和效益改善，防风险指引更加清晰明确。 直面挑战，顶压前行 政策层面能够直面经济运行中的挑战，对风险和机遇建立清晰认 识并着力解决。在经济转型高质量发展的过渡期，对于供给端的改革、 调整的诉求上升，建立清晰认识，在发展实践中应对挑战。 优化供给，存量挖潜 供给匹配需求，存量挖掘增量。新一轮"供给侧改革"或将注重开 发利用现有基建和产能，提升生产效率，释放潜在增长空间，这也是"必 须充分挖掘经济潜能"的指向。 积极财政发挥更大效能 总量保持强度，结构注重节流，积极财政政策要发挥更大效能。 明年财政政策强度可能更高，更重要的是结构新变化，更好统筹利用 ...