Economic Performance - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than October and 1.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, and was below market expectations[12] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with private fixed asset investment down by 5.3%[21] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to November saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% and real estate investment fell by 15.9%[23] - High-tech industries maintained strong performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.2% in industrial added value from January to November[2] - Real estate new construction area decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, with sales area down by 7.8% and sales revenue down by 11.1%[28] Consumer Behavior - The decline in retail sales was particularly pronounced in post-real estate consumption categories such as furniture and home appliances, which saw significant drops[15] - Online retail accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.1%[14] Policy Recommendations - The macroeconomic policy should consider early implementation to address potential uncertainties in the first quarter of 2026, especially given the late timing of the Spring Festival[32] - Short-term focus on monetary easing measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is recommended[32] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S., and increasing international geopolitical complexities[32]

2012 31 2025-12-15 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内商品继续回落，多数品种走弱，其中，工业品、农产品指数均下跌，品种间走势分化。一是，美联储12月如期降息，黄金、有色板块表现亮眼；二是， | | | 国内经济疲软，供强需求，黑色系继续调整，表现较弱；三是，多空因素交织，能化板块震荡运行。 | | 海外 | 1）美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调0.25个百分点至3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上重申了双重使命，并强调由于缺乏增量数据， | | | 就业和通胀预期变化不大。但对于劳动力市场，鲍威尔提到就业增长可能被高估了约6万人，暗示自4月以来月均就业人数实际可能减少了2万人。因此在当前就业 | | | 下滑和通胀上行的矛盾走势中，美联储选择在当前更加重视就业的问题，所以选择降息。12月美联储降息如期落地，而且与市场预期不同的是，鲍威尔的发言更 | | | 偏鸽派，目前市场预期2026年仍有两次各25bp降息可能，后续就业和通胀的走势仍是关键。2）日本 ...

来源：市场资讯 股指： 展望：短期来看，货币政策维持适度宽松基调不变对债市形成一定利好，债市经历前期调整之后有望小 幅修复，长期来看，资金合理充裕的同时，经济企稳回升，物价回暖，债市震荡格局难改。 宏观：中央经济工作会议定调积极 中央经济工作会议强调，明年经济工作在政策取向上"要加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。在逆周期调节 稳增长的同时，这体现为，2026年作为"十五五"起步之年，政策出发点以逆周期政策托底，但增量政策 或更多在于长效政策，即相关的政策部署将考虑更好的街接2035年实现现代化的目标。考虑到中国经济 在未来十年将面临劳动力供给趋缓、资本边际效率下降以及全要素生产率（TFP）增速放缓等结构性约 束，潜在增长率可能逐年回落。为了更好的衔接2035年远景目标，预计"十五五"开局前三年，GDP增速 目标仍设在5%左右，给"十五五"后期以及"十六五"留出更多提质增效的空间。 会议中提到"适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理， 继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发民间投资活力。"以及"着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控 增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保 ...

2025.12.15 本文字数：3259，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 祝嫣然 中央经济工作会议为2026年经济工作指明施政方向后，多部门已开始根据会议部署细化落实措施，将适 时出台增量政策。 近几日，国家发改委、财政部、央行、工信部、国资委等部门密集发声，对优化实施"两新""两重"、推 动投资止跌回稳、清理拖欠企业账款、加紧培育壮大新动能等方面进一步细化部署，提出一系列具体举 措。 12月13日，在2025～2026中国经济年会上，中央财办分管日常工作的副主任韩文秀表示，明年将根据形 势变化出台实施增量政策，要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，推动经济稳中向好。要优化支出 结构，强化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于人，统筹用好政府债券资金，更加注重 惠民生、扩内需、增后劲。 "当前我国经济发展中周期性、结构性、体制性问题相互交织叠加。"韩文秀强调，没有包治百病的灵丹 妙药，必须综合施策，既要加强宏观调控，减轻短期经济波动，又要不失时机地全面深化改革，向改革 要动力、要活力，推动经济更多转向内生增长。 "逆周期""跨周期"各有所指 中央经济工作会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's economic policy direction for 2026, emphasizing the need for both incremental and stock policies to stabilize and improve the economy, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and investment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined that the economic work for next year will focus on stabilizing progress and improving quality, integrating stock and incremental policies, and enhancing macroeconomic governance effectiveness [6][7]. - The government aims to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and transition from quantity to quality growth [6][7]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption - The government plans to increase central budget investment and optimize the implementation of major projects to stimulate investment and address the decline in fixed asset investment [11][12]. - There will be a focus on enhancing consumer spending through various measures, including urban and rural income growth plans and the promotion of consumption in sectors like services and technology [10][11]. Group 3: Innovation and Industry Development - The emphasis on innovation and industrial development is highlighted, with plans to implement actions for high-quality development of key industrial chains and promote advanced manufacturing clusters [14][15]. - State-owned enterprises are expected to play a crucial role in driving innovation and upgrading traditional industries, ensuring the stability and security of national strategic industrial chains [15][16].

Index Adjustments - Multiple indices in the A-share market, including the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index, will undergo sample adjustments effective December 15, 2025, with significant changes in constituent stocks [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index will replace 17 stocks, adding 7 from the main board and 10 from ChiNext, including companies like Demingli and Wohu Nuclear Materials [1] - The ChiNext Index will replace 8 stocks, with new additions including Shuanglin Co. and Changshan Pharmaceutical [1] - The CSI 300 Index will change 11 stocks, with new entries such as Guolian Minsheng and Guangqi Technology [2] Macroeconomic Policies - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for incremental policies to support economic stability, with GDP expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan in 2025 [3] - The Ministry of Commerce and other financial authorities issued a notification to enhance collaboration between business and finance to boost consumption [4] Investment and Fiscal Policies - The Ministry of Finance is focusing on stabilizing investment and enhancing macroeconomic governance, with plans to increase fiscal deficits and optimize government bond usage [5][6] - The People's Bank of China is set to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain market stability [8][9] Market Developments - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to enhance liquidity in the market [15] - The North Exchange is reportedly testing a new system for market capitalization-based IPOs, although some brokerages have not yet initiated testing [11] Company News - Yushu Technology launched a humanoid robot "App Store" for users to upload and share trained models [13] - Moore Threads plans to use up to 7.5 billion yuan of idle fundraising for cash management while ensuring project funding remains unaffected [14]

中央经济工作会议为2026年经济工作指明施政方向后，多部门已开始根据会议部署细化落实措施，将适 时出台增量政策。 近几日，国家发改委、财政部、央行、工信部、国资委等部门密集发声，对优化实施"两新""两重"、推 动投资止跌回稳、清理拖欠企业账款、加紧培育壮大新动能等方面进一步细化部署，提出一系列具体举 措。 12月13日，在2025～2026中国经济年会上，中央财办分管日常工作的副主任韩文秀表示，明年将根据形 势变化出台实施增量政策，要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，推动经济稳中向好。要优化支出 结构，强化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于人，统筹用好政府债券资金，更加注重 惠民生、扩内需、增后劲。 "当前我国经济发展中周期性、结构性、体制性问题相互交织叠加。"韩文秀强调，没有包治百病的灵丹 妙药，必须综合施策，既要加强宏观调控，减轻短期经济波动，又要不失时机地全面深化改革，向改革 要动力、要活力，推动经济更多转向内生增长。 "逆周期""跨周期"各有所指 中央经济工作会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增 量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏 ...

Index Adjustments - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced sample adjustments for several indices, including the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index, effective December 15, 2025. The Shenzhen Component Index will replace 17 stocks, including 7 from the main board and 10 from the ChiNext [2] - The ChiNext Index will replace 8 stocks, with new additions including Shuanglin Co., Changshan Pharmaceutical, and Fulian Precision [2] - The CSI 300 Index will replace 11 stocks, with new entries such as Guolian Minsheng and Guangqi Technology, while removing stocks like FAW Jiefang and Oppein Home [3] - The CSI 500 Index will replace 50 stocks, including Dongfang Yuhong and Heertai, while removing stocks like China Great Wall and Semir Garment [3] - The CSI 1000 Index will replace 100 stocks, with new additions including Fenghua High-Tech and Shijia Photon [3] - The CSI A50 Index will replace 4 stocks, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Huagong Technology, while removing stocks like ZTE and Shanghai Airport [4] - The CSI A100 Index will replace 6 stocks, with new entries such as Dongfang Fortune and Huagong Technology, while removing stocks like Shanghai Airport and CITIC Securities [4] - The CSI A500 Index will replace 20 stocks, including Zhongtian Technology and Genesis [4] Economic Policies - The Central Economic Work Conference indicated that China’s economic indicators for 2025 are expected to exceed expectations, with a projected GDP of around 140 trillion yuan. Incremental policies will be introduced in 2026 based on changing circumstances [6] - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a notice to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption, outlining 11 policy measures [7] - The Ministry of Finance emphasized the need for fiscal policies to support investment stabilization, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and optimizing local government bond usage [8] Financial Market Updates - The People's Bank of China announced a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring liquidity [10] - Social financing (社融) increased by 33.39 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5% [11] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau stressed the importance of risk prevention and supporting the stability of the real estate market [12] Market Strategies - CITIC Securities suggested focusing on both domestic and foreign demand, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards domestic consumption [18] - Zhongxin Jian Investment noted that the market has completed its adjustment phase and anticipates a new wave of market activity, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and AI computing [19] - Guotai Junan recommended a balanced asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of risk management amid potential market volatility [20]

【重点关注】 ·中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行 ·前十一个月社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元 ·2025年11月份CPI同比涨幅扩大核心CPI继续上涨 ·前11个月我国货物贸易进出口同比增长3.6% ·国家税务总局：1至11月新能源乘用车销售收入同比增长19.1% ·顶格重罚！证监会对私募机构优策投资开罚单 ·美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.5%至3.75% 为年内第三次降息 ·12月9日-10日，全国零售业创新发展大会在北京召开。会议要求，要准确把握守正与创新、"变"与"不 变"、盘活存量与做优增量、"线上"与"线下"、有为政府与有效市场之间的关系，统筹推进零售业创新 发展。要坚持诚信经营，以高品质商品和服务赢得消费者青睐，推动商业设施从空间租赁转向场景运 营、生态构建，提升可持续发展水平。要学习推广胖东来等企业好经验好做法，加快转型提升。要更加 注重下沉市场，发展新业态新模式新场景，激发消费潜力。 【国内要闻】 ·中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中 求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference were successively held. The policy orientation of the Politburo meeting returned to "strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment", and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized quality improvement and efficiency enhancement. The bond market yield declined overall but with a limited range. The bond market's reaction to the meetings was generally positive but still full of concerns [1][10]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing policy project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. In 2026, the deficit rate may remain at 4%, and the implementation of "two new" policies and "two important" projects will be optimized [1][11]. - Monetary policy support may increase, aiming to achieve stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. Policy tools will be used more flexibly and efficiently, and measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may cooperate with fiscal policy [2][11]. - The bond market's rise this year may be restricted by multiple factors, including concerns about ultra - long - term treasury bond supply, inflation expectations, and institutional behavior. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, important meetings led to an increase in expectations of loose monetary policy, and the bond market generally recovered. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds both declined by 1bp. The yield first decreased and then increased during the week [9]. - Fiscal policy will maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. Monetary policy support will increase, aiming for economic growth and price recovery [11]. - The bond market's rise may be restricted by multiple factors. It is expected that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used cautiously, and the curve may steepen. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net injection, and the funding rate declined. From December 8th to 12th, the central bank's open - market net injection was 47 billion yuan. The R001 and DR001 decreased by 2bp and 3bp respectively compared to December 5th [19][21]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first decreased and then increased. The yields of key - term treasury bonds declined, and most of the term spreads widened. As of December 12th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds decreased by 1bp to 1.84% and 2.25% respectively [28][29]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The weekly turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds rebounded to 43%, the inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.7%, and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds remained basically unchanged. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [20][33]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all rose. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was negative, and the average issuance rate increased [47][53]. 3.3 Economic Data - In November, export growth rebounded, and the year - on - year increase in CPI expanded. The year - on - year growth rate of exports was 5.9%, and the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.7% [57]. - The increase in social financing in November was higher than the same period last year, but household credit remained weak. Since December, new - home sales have weakened, while movie consumption has remained stronger than the seasonal average [58]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - The Fed completed its interest - rate cuts this year, and internal differences intensified. The bond markets in France and Germany declined, and most emerging markets also fell [67][68]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The performance of major asset classes this week was: live pigs > Shanghai copper > Shanghai gold > CSI 1000 > China bonds > CSI 300 > Convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > US dollar > Rebar > Crude oil [3][74]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple departments held meetings to convey the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing policies such as risk prevention, financial support for key areas, and high - quality development [78][82]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised the bond trading business guide, optimizing specific bond element display and adding non - trading transfer business [83].