周五的全球资产交易普遍趋于谨慎。道指在 48000 点上方短暂整理后小幅回落，黄金在亚洲早盘依旧稳 站 4200 美元附近，而美元在就业与收益率信号交织下维持平稳。三条主线最终指向同一个焦点：下周 美联储的最新政策决定，以及是否将迎来连续第三次降息。 周四，道琼斯指数一度贴近 48000 点震荡，随后小幅走低。市场风格明显从前期的反弹切换为以"等待 决议"为主的节奏。尽管企业裁员较上月略有缓和，但整体劳动力降温迹象依旧明显——今年累计裁员 人数已升至 117 万，成为非衰退阶段的高位数据之一。这种就业面的疲态继续推动市场向降息方向靠 拢，也让美股在本周中后段上涨动能趋弱。投资者目前普遍将注意力集中在 12 月 10 日的利率决议上。 亚洲盘面中，金价围绕 4205 美元窄幅波动。国债收益率上扬叠加就业数据偏稳，对金价形成一定压 制，但降息预期的持续增强仍为金价提供支撑。被延后的 9 月 PCE 数据预计将在今晚发布，虽然属于 滞后指标，但作为美联储重点参考的通胀依据，其结果仍可能在会议前影响市场的定价倾向。多数交易 员因此选择在数据公布前维持轻仓状态，黄金整体呈现区间震荡。 眼下市场的叙事几乎完全收敛至"PC ...

12月4日：上交易日周三（12月3日）：国际黄金冲高回落倒垂收跌，相对于周二走势，有暗示后市将横 盘震荡整理的预期，但方向上，目前仍还是偏向看涨上行不变。 再一方面，本周还有美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率，以及下周在美联储利率决议后再公布的PPI通胀数 据，和美国11月失业率非农数据，以及美国11月CPI通胀数据等等，所以市场等待的不是12月降息前 景，而是明年的降息前景，故此，当下的调整等待也属正常反应。 再者，正常情况下，金价的反弹一般会在降息当周面临遇阻行情，所以，当下在临近下周降息会议落地 之前，表现震荡也属正常。 张尧浠认为，在下周利率会议落地之后，市场将再度回归到明年的降息周期前景之中，那么从本周到下 周的调整则可视为入场的时机和节点。因为，不管是11月非农数据和CPI数据在12月降息会议之前还是 之后公布，区别就是先涨还是后涨，其美国政府的停摆，也已经影响到了11月初的经济，故此，大概率 上，11月非农和CPI将会支撑后续的降息前景。 再加上，美联储也即将换任更加鸽派的主席，都将支撑明年的更加宽松的降息前景。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4206.58美元/盎司，短暂走强遇阻4230美元附近后，回 ...

Stock futures were struggling for direction on Thursday, with Wall Street in wait-and-see mode ahead of an inflation print that could be key for determining the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting path.Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 35 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were less than 0.1% lower, and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1%.The three major indexes all closed in the green Wednesday after the ISM services report suggested an easing of inflation pressures, a ...

Core Insights - The silver futures market shows a closing price of 13,424 yuan per kilogram on December 4, with a daily decline of 1.42% and a trading volume of 2,280,887 contracts [1] - The Shanghai silver spot price is quoted at 13,685 yuan per kilogram, indicating a premium of 261 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are high, with an 89% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, influenced by a significant drop in U.S. private sector employment [3] Market Dynamics - The iShares Silver Trust, the largest silver ETF globally, has increased its holdings by 135.4 tons, bringing the total to 15,998.55 tons [4] - The silver market is experiencing a structural reversal between Shanghai and New York, with strong domestic sentiment and supply shortages driving prices higher [5] - The premium for Shanghai silver has narrowed to 340 yuan per kilogram, reflecting robust market conditions ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in silver prices, with a notable decline of 2.00% as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [1] - The ADP report reveals a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector for November, which is significantly lower than the revised increase of 47,000 from the previous month and below market expectations of a 5,000 increase, suggesting a cooling labor market [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have surged, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 71% to nearly 89% in just one week, indicating a potential weakening of the U.S. dollar in the short term [1] Group 2 - Despite a drop to a low of $57.54, the upward trend in silver prices remains intact, although a mild divergence between price movement and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may signal a potential pullback [2] - Should a pullback occur, the bearish targets will first focus on the support area transformed from the previous resistance trend line, specifically between $53.80 and $54.00, followed by testing the 50-day moving average at $50.25 [2] Group 3 - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported an increase in holdings by 135.4 tons, bringing the total holdings to 15,998.55 tons [1]

黄金基本面分析： 根据香港黄金交易所数据显示，全球最大黄金上市交易基金ETF截至12月03日持仓量为1046.58吨，较上日减持1.72吨，上月止净增持6.23吨。香港第一金市 场部负责人陈生：GOLDFX009 （微）分析国际现货黄金走势虽然回落4200美元每盎司下方震荡，但整体的多头趋势暂未改变，不排除诱空后迎接第二轮强 势上攻。 地缘局势，克里姆林宫否认普京拒绝美方乌克兰方案，称仅是初步意见交流；与此同时，特朗普助手周四将与乌高级代表在迈阿密会面，显示美方持续介入 俄乌局势；欧盟计划2027年秋全面禁进俄天然气，加速能源脱俄进程。美国内政与经济方面，美财长贝森特或兼任国家经济委员会主任，其提出淡化美联储 主席利率掌控权、设地区联储主席居住年限等主张。白宫取消副总统万斯的候选人面试，凯文・哈塞特成为新美联储主席热门人选，但债券投资者对其资历 表达担忧。美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万，创2023年3月最大降幅，小企业裁员加剧，强化市场对美联储下周降息的预期。然而，ISM服务业PMI扩张速 度达九个月最快，价格指数回落至七个月低位，就业分项创六个月新高，显示行业分化明显。市场降息预期强烈，芝商所工具显示 ...

根据CMEFedWatch工具的最新统计，当前市场对美国12月政策会议下调25个基点的预期概率已接近89%，较一周前71%的概率大幅提升。对于黄金而言，利 率水平的调整至关重要——较低的利率环境会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而提升这种无收益资产的吸引力，这也是近期黄金价格获得支撑的核心逻辑之 一。 周四的市场将迎来首个重要数据考验。美国每周初次申请失业金人数将于稍后公布，作为高频就业指标，其数值变化将进一步印证劳动力市场的真实状况。 按照历史规律，若初请失业金人数高于预期，通常会被解读为就业市场降温的信号，可能进一步强化宽松预期，对黄金形成利好；反之则可能引发短期回 调。 数据关注点将在周五进一步延伸至延迟发布的美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）通胀数据。作为美联储重点关注的通胀指标，这份报告的核心数值将为利率路 径提供关键线索。市场分析认为，若数据显示通胀压力超预期回升，可能会暂时抑制宽松预期，推动美元短线走强，进而对黄金价格形成阶段性压力；若通 胀延续平稳回落态势，则将为政策调整提供更充分的依据。 从近期整体趋势来看，11月国际黄金已累计实现5.4%的涨幅，月末更是呈现强势反弹特征。除了政策预期因素，全球央行持 ...

Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibited a cautious stance on the first trading day of December, with major asset prices fluctuating around economic data and central bank policy expectations [1] - U.S. stock index futures fell between 0.5% to 1% during European morning trading, reflecting investor hesitance regarding economic outlook [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for November, released by the Institute for Supply Management, is a key data point influencing U.S. stock market movements, as investors look to gauge the health of the manufacturing sector [1] - China's manufacturing PMI for November dropped to 49.9, indicating contraction, down from 50.6 in October and below the market expectation of 50.5, following a nearly 1.5% increase the previous week [1] Currency Movements - The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar opened lower on Monday, trading in a negative range below 0.6550, influenced by the disappointing Chinese PMI data [1] - The U.S. dollar index, a core variable for cross-market interactions, fell over 0.7% last week, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December continuing to rise [3] - The euro/dollar pair consolidated last week's gains, trading slightly below 1.1600, while the pound/dollar pair saw a slight decline to around 1.3200 after a 1% increase last week [4] Precious Metals - Gold emerged as one of the few strong assets in the current market, reaching a high of over $4250 during Asian trading, although it experienced a pullback during European morning trading, remaining above $4200 [4] - The performance of gold is directly related to the weakening dollar and market expectations for accommodative policies, highlighting its safe-haven and value-preserving attributes [4]

美国年终购物季开启，美联储降息预期重燃提振风险偏好。 本周国际市场风云变幻，美国年终购物季开启，美联储降息预期重燃提振风险偏好。美股强劲反弹，道指周涨3.18%，纳指周涨4.91%，标普500指数周涨 3.73%，欧洲三大股指走高，英国富时100指数周涨1.80%，德国DAX 30指数周涨3.23%，法国CAC 40指数周涨1.75%。 下周看点颇多，美国供应管理协会（ISM）发布的制造业与服务业活动调查数据，以及最新的自动数据处理公司（ADP）私营部门就业报告将受到市场密切 关注，这些数据是判断美联储是否可能在下次会议上降息的重要依据。欧洲方面，欧元区通胀数据将成为投资者评估未来政策路径的重要参考。此外，产油 国联盟（OPEC+）会否决定维持产量、俄乌和谈走向都牵动着原油市场神经。 美国这些数据将出炉 荷兰国际集团（ING）经济学家奈特利（James Knightley）在一份报告中表示："继关键官员近期的表态以及喜忧参半的就业报告之后，市场再次强烈预期美 联储将连续第三次降息25个基点。即将公布的数据很可能会强化这一观点。从区域调查数据来看，ISM制造业指数预计将继续处于收缩区间，而ISM服务业 指数则有 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices remained stable, with the market assessing the Federal Reserve's policy signals and adjusting expectations for potential interest rate cuts by year-end [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - As of 0200 GMT, spot gold decreased by 0.2% to $4,154.09 per ounce, while December gold futures fell by 0.3% to $4,151.20 per ounce [3]. - Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilverCentral, indicated that the unclear direction of the Federal Reserve's policy has led to a consolidation phase for gold prices, with the market awaiting clearer signals [3]. - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the timing and extent of interest rate cuts, prompting some funds to shift towards interest rate-related derivatives to manage volatility from policy uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Some Federal Reserve officials have expressed dovish sentiments, with New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller noting that a slowing labor market could pressure Treasury yields, suggesting a potential policy adjustment in December [3]. - Conversely, several regional Fed presidents advocate for delaying any easing of policies until inflation data stabilizes closer to the 2% target [3]. - The FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange indicates a high probability for interest rate cuts in December, as lower interest rates typically enhance gold's attractiveness [3]. Group 3: Employment and Consumer Confidence - Recent employment data showed a slight decline in initial jobless claims, but the job market still does not fully meet job-seeker demand [4]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell in November due to uncertainties regarding employment and household financial conditions [4]. Group 4: Other Precious Metals - In the precious metals market, spot silver decreased by 0.9% to $52.89 per ounce, while platinum rose by 1.4% to $1,611.04 per ounce; palladium fell by 0.9% to $1,409.87 per ounce [4].