1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly. The overall view is to oscillate, as the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1] - For the main varieties of TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. Although the long - term upward trend of Treasury bond futures exists due to the need for a loose monetary environment, the short - term upward and downward space is limited, and short - term Treasury bond futures will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: oscillate weakly; overall view: oscillate. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but short - term interest rate cuts are unlikely [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, most Treasury bond futures closed up, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.19%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.05%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.03%, and the 2 - year main contract flat [5] - In June, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year, showing weak overall performance, which is not conducive to the endogenous growth of domestic demand [5] - Considering the weak domestic inflation, insufficient endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand, and the impact of tariffs on external demand, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year. However, due to the capital diversion effect caused by the rising risk appetite of the stock market and the weak short - term interest rate cut expectation, the short - term upward and downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] PPI 降幅扩大，"反内卷"势在必行 ——6 月通胀数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月 CPI 同比转涨，核心 CPI 同比涨幅扩大、为 2024 年 5 月以来新高，油价、金价等工业消 费品价格回升是主要拉动。6 月 PPI 同比降幅扩大、创 2023 年 8 月以来新低，其中，国内需 求疲弱、部分行业产能过剩，煤炭、钢材、水泥降幅扩大是主要拖累。往前看，猪价或维持窄 幅震荡、能源价格面临一定下行压力，CPI 同比回升的关键仍在于居民消费需求的回升；7 月 中央财经委员会直指"内卷式"竞争治理，多行业积极响应，或提振部分行业价格回升，除了 供给侧的优化，加大对国内基建、地产投资以及居民消费等领域支持的需求侧政策同样重要。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 蒋佳榛 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490524080005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title PPI 降幅扩大，"反 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - China's June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing a four-month decline, exceeding market expectations[4] - The month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.1%, but the decline was narrower than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points[6] - Industrial consumer goods prices stabilized and contributed to the CPI increase, with a reduction in the downward impact on CPI by approximately 0.18 percentage points[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - China's June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - The PPI's further decline reflects accumulated supply-side pressures and weak demand[23] - Upstream industrial prices faced significant pressure, with mining industry prices dropping by 13.2% year-on-year[27] Group 3: Price Trends - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7%, marking a 14-month high, supported by resilient service prices[20] - Energy prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, reversing the previous downward trend, influenced by geopolitical factors[16] - Food prices decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, but the decline was smaller than seasonal expectations by 0.5 percentage points[14]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income review report titled "Why is the Divergence Trend between CPI and PPI Intensifying? - Review of June Price Data" dated July 9, 2025 [1][2] - The chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, and the analyst is Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Data Observation CPI Data - In June, CPI was up 0.1% year - on - year, rising 0.2 pct from the previous month and moving from negative to positive. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct from the previous month and the value being at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [2] - Core CPI continued to rise, indicating a possible demand recovery, but it was uneven. The year - on - year increase in CPI was stronger than that of core CPI mainly due to the reduced drag from the energy item. After removing the impact of food and energy, core inflation continued to rise year - on - year, reflecting a demand recovery. However, the recovery of consumer demand was mainly supported by sub - items such as transportation, communication, rent, water and electricity, and household appliances, while CPI in areas such as clothing, education, tourism, and household services decreased month - on - month [3] - Service CPI continued to grow, and consumer goods CPI continued to recover. The demand structure continued to shift from food to consumption and services. The decline in consumer CPI narrowed, and service CPI had been growing for 5 months, with the year - on - year value remaining at 0.5% as in the previous month. Food prices remained stable, and the increase in vegetable prices led to a narrowing of the decline in food CPI [3] PPI Data - The month - on - month PPI of consumer goods weakened. The reason was that during the subsidy gap period, the path for demand to spread from policy - driven areas to other consumer goods areas slowed down compared with the previous month. Durable consumer goods declined month - on - month in June [4] - External demand suppressed the prices of the processing industry, while the input factor of international crude oil drove the price recovery of upstream industries, and PPI entered a weak equilibrium state. In June, the decline in external demand orders in the PMI indicated a weakening of external demand, leading to a month - on - month decline in the PPI of the processing industry. High temperatures restricted infrastructure construction, resulting in demand lagging behind material supply. The decline in coal prices due to new energy substitution and over - capacity continued to reduce PPI prices, but the increase in international crude oil prices repaired the drag on domestic related industries, and deflation in upstream industries such as mining and raw material industries eased [4] Group 3: In - depth Perspective From the Perspective of Resident Income - Since March, the year - on - year decline in rent has narrowed to - 0.1% and remained unchanged for 4 consecutive months. The stable and flat trend of rent may indicate that the income improvement trend has stalled, and income recovery is the core driving force for the recovery of total demand and the return of price levels to positive [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Activity - In June, the year - on - year price of pork dropped to - 8.5%, and the month - on - month price dropped to - 1.2%. The decline in pork prices was mainly due to oversupply and also reflected a contraction in pork demand in June, suggesting a possible structural decline in factory labor demand. The continuous squeeze on corporate profits in previous months still had a lagging impact on the economy, and the significant decline in the PMI of small enterprises and employment in the manufacturing and service industries in June confirmed the contraction in pork demand. The month - on - month decline in liquor prices was 0.3%, the same as the average in the past 5 years, implying that the business activity of small enterprises remained weak [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Price Transmission - The increase in household appliance prices in June may be an illusion during the policy window period. The month - on - month increase in household appliance CPI was likely due to manufacturers adjusting prices during the subsidy gap period. The price model of leading brands was to "raise the marked price and offset with subsidies" to achieve a nominal price increase. In June, the subsidy amount in many places was exhausted, leading to a decrease in the subsidy part and an increase in the final product price. The price increase during the subsidy gap period may be a game behavior to transfer inventory pressure [7] High - frequency Data - International oil prices showed a downward trend, and PPI would face downward pressure in the next stage. The marginal price of Nanhua industrial products began to rise, but the price of rebar continued to decline. Although the third batch of 300 billion dual - purpose funds had been issued, high - temperature weather restricted demand release and limited physical construction. Glass prices continued to decline, indicating no improvement in the real estate market [7] Group 4: Future Outlook CPI Outlook - Currently, CPI has achieved an upward breakthrough with a marginal reduction in external interference items, but the demand recovery is uneven, and the recovery trend needs to be consolidated. High - frequency data shows that international oil prices have started to decline, and with the easing of local geopolitical conflicts, it is highly likely that the oil price center will shift downward in July, which may drive next month's CPI down. In July, the next batch of fiscal funds will start to be in place, and the household appliance sub - item of CPI may decline. Due to the slowdown in the transmission to other industries caused by the subsidy gap and the crowding - out of consumption in other areas this month, the price recovery in other areas next month still needs to be observed. From the perspective of corporate activities, the continuous profit compression pattern has led to a decline in the prosperity of small enterprises and employment, and the consumption demand contributed by the income side is still not optimistic [7] PPI Outlook - The supply - side dilemma of PPI has not changed. The "rush - to - export" effect of external demand is fading, and although the pull from domestic demand has slowed down, it may rebound in July, maintaining the current weak equilibrium. On the supply side, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the decline in international oil prices in July may lead to a decline in PPI prices. In terms of external demand, there are still challenges, and exports are likely to decline in the second half of the year, with trade cooling down, which is difficult to significantly drive up total demand. In terms of domestic demand, after the next batch of subsidy funds is in place in July, on the one hand, it will directly improve corporate profits, and on the other hand, the uneven pattern of CPI demand recovery may improve, and the chain of CPI pulling PPI will restart, and the PPI of consumer goods may continue to rise. However, overall, the upward repair amplitude may be relatively limited [8]

Inflation Data Summary - In June, China's CPI turned positive at +0.1% year-on-year, a recovery from -0.1% in May, marking the first positive reading since January 2025[3] - The month-on-month CPI decreased by -0.1%, an improvement from the previous month's decline of -0.2%[3] - Core CPI rose to +0.7% year-on-year in June, up from +0.6% in May, while month-on-month core CPI remained unchanged at 0%[3] PPI Analysis - June's PPI decreased by -3.6% year-on-year, a decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest level since August 2023 and the 33rd consecutive month of negative growth[9] - Month-on-month PPI fell by -0.4%, continuing a trend of negative growth for seven consecutive months, which is weaker than the historical average of -0.1%[9] Key Drivers and Trends - The positive CPI was primarily driven by clothing, household goods, and services, with household goods benefiting from consumption incentives[4] - Food prices decreased by -0.4% month-on-month, with pork prices significantly dropping from +3.1% to -8.5% year-on-year[4] - The international oil price recovery, influenced by geopolitical tensions, supported domestic gasoline prices, which shifted from -3.7% to +0.3% month-on-month[4] Future Outlook - The current inflation rate is still far from the annual target of 2%, indicating a need for further policy support to stabilize domestic demand[12] - The core CPI is expected to remain a key support for prices under existing policies, while industrial product prices may require additional measures to improve[12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.19%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.05%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.03%, and the 2 - year main contract flat. The inflation data in June showed that CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year, which is weak and not conducive to the endogenous growth of domestic demand. Considering the current macroeconomic indicators and monetary policy, domestic inflation is weak, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A moderately loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations, so the medium - to - long - term upward trend of treasury bond futures remains. However, due to the recent increase in risk appetite in the stock market leading to capital diversion and the weak expectation of interest rate cuts in the short term, the upward and downward space of treasury bond futures is limited in the short term. Overall, treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On July 9, the People's Bank of China conducted 75.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. There were 98.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan. - In June 2025, the year - on - year increase in the consumer price index was 0.1%, and the year - on - year decrease in the producer price index for industrial products was 3.6% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, focusing on the balance of funds, interest rates, and the impact of recent economic data on market sentiment. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 755 billion, with 985 billion maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 230 billion [2] - The funding environment remains balanced and loose, with stable funding rates; DR001 is around 1.32% and DR007 is around 1.48% [2] - June inflation data was weak, leading to fluctuations in the stock market, which peaked and then retreated [3][4] Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The weighted average rates for various repos are as follows: RO01 at 1.38%, R007 at 1.50%, and R014 at 1.54%, with total transaction volume at approximately 82,256.73 billion [3] - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.6435% and fluctuated slightly, reflecting market reactions to economic data and external factors [4] - There were reports of a province reducing the investment scale in agricultural commercial banks' bonds, which contributed to a slight increase in interest rates [4][5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Reactions - Market sentiment was stable in the bond market despite external pressures, with minor fluctuations in response to economic indicators [4] - The article mentions a "shame" felt by agricultural commercial banks regarding their lending capabilities and investment strategies, indicating a broader sentiment of distress within the sector [6][7]

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、通胀数据有点冷，如何影响市场? 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 实际上，市场情绪依然不错。今天沪深两市成交量约为1.5万亿，相比昨天仍在小幅恢复，说明市场情 绪仍在向上回暖的过程中，整体趋势并未被破坏。 接下来，沿着我们的方法论，梳理三条逻辑线，看看各个方向上有哪些最新动向。 第一条逻辑线是宏观基本面。今天发布了一个重要数据，即6月份的通胀数据，包括CPI和PPI。CPI代 表居民感受到的通胀水平，PPI则代表企业端感受到的物价上涨程度。CPI同比上涨0.1%，但环比数据 仍在下降，下降了0.1%。因此，数据并未明显改善，只能说没有继续恶化。对于资本市场而言，许多 消费板块的投资者或许可以稍微松一口气，毕竟数据没有继续大幅下滑，这已经算是一个好消息。但这 也并不足以支撑这些赛道继续向上。 我们再来看另一个数据，即企业能够感受到的商品销售价格，也就是PPI。PPI环比下降了0.4%，同比下 降幅度高达3.6%，这个数据比大家预期的要差一些。这 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Global Economy - Current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, and even with a trade agreement, it is unlikely that tariffs will decrease significantly [1] - Global growth tracking estimates a current annual rate of only 1.3%, which is at the 8th lowest percentile historically [1] - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data following tariff announcements, with a peak gap not seen in 27 years [1] Group 2: U.S. Dollar Dynamics - UBS is bearish on the dollar from a cyclical perspective but does not view this as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [2] - The current dollar sell-off lacks key elements that characterized past long-term declines, such as improved economic growth in other regions and reduced risk premiums [2] Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Initial impacts of tariffs are beginning to show in private sector data, but delays in transmission to official consumer price indices are expected [3] - Significant effects on CPI from tariffs are anticipated to manifest in July's data, which will be released in August [3] Group 4: Global Exporters' Response - Evidence of a "tariff rush" in Q1 indicates that trade volumes have not yet stabilized despite price increases [4] - There is little evidence that foreign exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering export prices, and the impact of dollar depreciation on their profits is noted [4] Group 5: U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Global Interest Rates - The majority of changes in budget deficits stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with no fundamental changes expected post-election [6] - Concerns about supply issues persist, but historically, demand fluctuations have been more significant than supply [6] Group 6: Capital Flows from the U.S. - There is a widely accepted view that foreign investors are reducing exposure to U.S. assets, supported by April's international capital flow data [7] - The ongoing decline of the dollar suggests that foreign exchange hedging may be a driving factor behind this trend [7] Group 7: U.S. vs. European Stock Markets - U.S. stock markets typically perform better during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is primarily driven by the U.S. economy [8] - Comparisons reveal that U.S. valuations are exceptionally high while European markets appear relatively cheap [8] Group 8: "One Big Beautiful" Act's Economic Impact - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to increase deficits before 2026, with a total reduction of $0.4 trillion over ten years [8] - The act is expected to provide a boost of approximately 45 basis points to economic growth by 2026 [8] Group 9: Central Banks' Response to Tariff Escalation - Central banks have shifted their views due to the absence of retaliatory measures and dollar depreciation, with expectations of 1-3 policy rate cuts [9] - The current situation is viewed as simpler than a "stagflation" scenario, allowing for potential easing policies [9]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a warm oscillation last week, with a slight decline in long-term bond yields. The 10-year government bond futures main contract rose by 0.03%, while the 10-year bond yield fell by 0.29 basis points compared to the previous week [2][3] - The yield curve has steepened further, driven by a combination of factors including a loosening of the funding environment and a reduction in government bond issuance [1][3] Secondary Market - On July 1, the bond market was supported by a loosening funding environment and a reduction in government bond issuance, leading to a general decline in yields. The 10-year bond yield decreased by 0.36 basis points [4] - On July 2, the market continued to strengthen due to the increasingly loose funding environment, with the 10-year bond yield falling by 0.37 basis points [4] - On July 3, the bond market remained warm, with most yields declining, although the 10-year bond yield increased slightly by 0.11 basis points [4] - On July 4, short-term bonds continued to perform well due to the ongoing loose funding environment, while long-term bonds weakened slightly due to the stock-bond effect, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 0.26 basis points [4] Primary Market - A total of 47 bonds were issued last week, a decrease of 130 bonds from the previous week, with an issuance volume of 513.2 billion, down by 354.4 billion. The net financing amount was 376.6 billion, a significant decrease of 404.1 billion [11][12] - Government bonds, policy bank bonds, and local government bonds saw varying issuance trends, with government bonds and policy bank bonds increasing while local government bonds saw a significant decrease [11][12] Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic sentiment continued to improve in June, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from May. The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points [13] - The service sector PMI decreased slightly to 50.1%, reflecting seasonal trends, while the composite PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating ongoing expansion [13] Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 1375.3 billion in the open market last week, indicating a tightening of liquidity despite the overall loose funding environment [24]