欧洲央行行长拉加德：经济增长面临的风险偏向下行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, emphasized that investments in defense and infrastructure are driving economic growth [1] Group 1 - The focus on defense spending is expected to enhance economic activity across the Eurozone [1] - Infrastructure investments are seen as crucial for long-term growth and stability in the region [1] - Lagarde's comments suggest a strategic shift towards bolstering public investment to support recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicates that trade tensions will lead to a slowdown in economic growth and inflation [1] Economic Impact - Trade escalation is expected to negatively impact economic growth rates across the Eurozone [1] - The ECB suggests that inflation rates may also experience a deceleration due to these trade conflicts [1] Policy Implications - The ECB may need to adjust its monetary policy in response to the anticipated economic slowdown and inflationary pressures [1] - Potential changes in interest rates or other monetary tools could be considered to mitigate the effects of trade tensions [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicates that further escalation of trade tensions in the coming months will lead to economic growth and inflation levels falling below baseline forecasts [1]

欧洲央行：相比之下，如果贸易紧张局势以温和的方式解决，经济增长以及在较小程度上的通胀将会高 于基线预测。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank indicates that uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to weigh on corporate investment and exports, particularly in the short term, but increasing government investments in defense and infrastructure will increasingly support economic growth in the medium term [1] Group 1 - Trade policy uncertainty is anticipated to negatively impact corporate investment and exports in the short term [1] - Government investments in defense and infrastructure are projected to provide medium-term support for economic growth [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The US ADP and ISM non - manufacturing data were worse than expected, leading to a weaker US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. China's May PMI data improved, and the economy continued to expand, boosting domestic risk appetite. Short - term, the stock index may fluctuate, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; the treasury bond may oscillate at a high level, and it's better to observe carefully. For commodities, black may rebound from a low level, and it's advisable to observe carefully; non - ferrous metals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; energy and chemicals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to observe carefully; precious metals may be strong at a high level, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US May ADP employment was 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous 62,000. The May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, shrinking for the first time in nearly a year. The US dollar index weakened due to these factors and the president's call for a rate cut, and global risk appetite increased. Domestic: China's May PMI data improved, the economy expanded, and short - term domestic risk appetite was boosted. Although the US tightened restrictions on China's semiconductor and aircraft engine sectors, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also lifted domestic risk appetite [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as beauty care, clothing and home textiles, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. China's May PMI data improvement and the expected call between Chinese and US leaders boosted domestic risk appetite. The market focused on US trade policies and negotiations. Short - term, it's advisable to be cautious and go long [3]. Precious Metals - Supported by a weaker US dollar and weak US data, precious metals rose slightly on Wednesday. COMEX gold August contract reached $3397 per ounce. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9, the lowest since June 2024. ADP data showed the fewest private - sector job increases in over two years. The labor market showed signs of cooling. Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term and have a solid long - term upward trend. It's advisable to focus on the employment report on Friday [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded on Wednesday. The rebound of coking coal and coke prices improved market sentiment. The actual demand was okay, with inventory decreasing but apparent consumption slightly falling. The supply side saw a slight increase in hot - rolled coil production and a slight decrease in building materials production. Steel may oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday. The iron - making molten iron output declined for three consecutive weeks, but the high profitability of steel mills led to different views on the decline path. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volumes increased this week. The delay of FMG's iron bridge project should be noted. Iron ore may oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Wednesday. The demand for ferroalloys decreased slightly. The production of silicon manganese increased slightly. The prices of raw materials were weak, and the market transaction was average. Silicon iron and silicon manganese may oscillate in the short - term [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Saudi Arabia intends to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August or September, and the improvement of the Canadian wildfire situation led to a slight decline in oil prices [7]. - **Asphalt**: With the decline of oil prices, asphalt oscillated narrowly. Demand recovered to a limited extent. The basis of major consumption areas decreased, and the inventory destocking stagnated. Asphalt will follow crude oil to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [7]. - **PX**: The PX price remained high, and PXN was around 270. Short - term maintenance was relatively high, and with the support of crude oil, PX will oscillate strongly. However, the reduction of PTA long - term contracts and the lack of gasoline - blending demand may lead to a slight decline in PX demand later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remained at +200, and the 9 - 1 structure was around 140. The downstream was in a cash - flow deficit, with weak new orders. PTA may oscillate weakly later [8][9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the rebound of black metals, ethylene glycol recovered. Although there is some support at 4300, the supply recovery of synthetic - gas - made ethylene glycol is certain, and the probability of a sharp rise is low. It may form a bottom, and short - term trading can be observed [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillated weakly. Terminal orders recovered slowly, and the downstream may reduce production. Short - fiber may continue to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The possible call between Chinese and US leaders boosted market sentiment. The copper ore supply was relatively tight, while the production of electrolytic copper was high. The demand may decline as the peak season ended. Copper may oscillate in the short - term [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the overall commodity market, aluminum prices rose. There is no clear market logic currently, and aluminum may oscillate in the short - term. Later, attention should be paid to the change in social inventory and the high - tariff risk [10]. - **Tin**: Affected by the slow possible resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, tin prices rose. The domestic tin ore supply was tight, and the demand was mixed. Tin may stabilize in the short - term, but the high - tariff risk may put pressure on prices [11]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Supported by a weaker US dollar, CBOT soybeans and grains may maintain a range - bound market. The US soybean sowing progress was 84%, and the weather was stable, lacking continuous weather premium [12]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills may continue to recover, and soybean meal lacks a stable upward driver. The supply of rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the port inventory may decline. The market's expectation of trade tension decreased. The premium of soybean and rapeseed meal may decline if the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [12][13]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.58%. Malaysia's production and inventory are expected to increase, and the external market is weak. Indonesia's 2024/2025 palm oil production is estimated to be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's is estimated to be 19 million tons [13]. - **Live Pigs**: After the holiday, the supply and demand of live pigs were both weak. Pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term price increase due to the narrowing of the basis [14]. - **Corn**: The northeast corn产区 had a strong intention to support prices, and the north - south port corn inventory may continue to decline. The substitution of wheat for corn in feed may not affect the overall trend. The corn futures market was inactive, and there is no upward impetus currently [14].

Group 1 - Indonesia's government has launched an economic stimulus plan worth 24.44 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately $1.5 billion) aimed at boosting consumption and economic growth during the school holiday period from June to July [1] - The stimulus plan includes five key policies: transportation discounts, social assistance, wage subsidies, and toll road incentives, with the goal of maintaining a 5% economic growth rate in the second quarter [1] - Economic challenges are evident, with GDP growth projected at 4.87% in Q1 2025, down from 5.04% in Q4 2023 and 5.02% in Q4 2024, alongside rising unemployment and declining consumer purchasing power [2] Group 2 - The summer economic stimulus plan has sparked discussions domestically, reflecting the government's confidence in achieving the 5% growth target, and emphasizing a long-term strategy to expand domestic demand as a growth engine [3] - The plan aims to enhance the overall investment attractiveness of the Southeast Asian region, showcasing economic resilience, consumer vitality, and industrial upgrades [3] - However, the plan faces challenges due to poor inter-departmental coordination, with several relevant departments unaware of the policy, potentially undermining its effectiveness [3]

美联储周三发布的最新《褐皮书》显示，在过去六周内，美国经济出现轻度收缩，企业招聘放缓，消费 者和企业因关税相关价格上涨而变得更加谨慎。 报告指出："自4月23日上次报告发布以来，经济活动略有下降。"美联储12个地区的所有地区均报告 称，当前经济和政策不确定性水平较高，导致家庭和企业在决策方面表现出犹豫和谨慎态度。 在就业方面，大多数地区的招聘"几乎没有变化"，其中有7个地区将就业描述为"持平"，尽管劳动力市 场中求职者人数增加、员工流动率下降。 报告写道："所有地区都描述了劳动力需求下降的情况，包括工时减少、加班时间下调、招聘暂停以及 裁员计划。一些地区确实报告了特定行业的裁员，但整体并不普遍。" 关于通胀，报告称物价"以温和速度上涨"。然而，各地普遍预计未来成本和价格上涨速度将加快，有些 地区甚至将这些预期形容为"强劲"、"显著"或"可观"。报告指出："所有地区均表示，更高的关税正在 推高成本和价格。" 尽管如此，不同地区对价格上涨幅度的预期存在分歧，一些企业表示可能通过压缩利润率或征收"临时 附加费"来应对。报告指出："计划转嫁关税成本的企业预计将在三个月内完成转嫁。" 此次报告覆盖了总统特朗普近期调整关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada emphasizes its commitment to supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains within a controllable range [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Canada aims to balance economic support with inflation control [1]