Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE levels increase volatility, and in Q3, the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing should be noted. [5] - It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions. For those with a short - term view, they can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity after the silver's upward momentum fades. [4][5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The potential harm of the US - EU trade agreement to the European economy led to a more than 1% drop in the euro against the US dollar, pushing the US dollar index to around 99. The easing of international trade and the cease - fire on the Thai - Cambodian border reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold fell to around $3300 per ounce, while silver with strong industrial attributes was strong due to Sino - US trade negotiation expectations. [4] - Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise. [4] - This week, attention should be paid to Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill reduced the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but Trump's policies and geopolitical risks supported the price. [5] - In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. [5] - It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, waiting for the next upward breakthrough. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7][9][11] 3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Sino - US senior economic officials held over five - hour talks in Stockholm to extend the trade truce by three months. [17] - A cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia took effect at midnight on Monday, ending a deadly conflict. [17] - Trump set a new deadline for Russia to make progress in ending the Ukraine war. [17] - Trump expects to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements with the US and will send notice letters to about 200 countries. The US is considering changing its Myanmar policy regarding rare - earth resources. The EU and the US will establish a metal alliance as part of the trade agreement. [18]

Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with market focus on whether the policy statement will convey dovish signals [3] - Economic data presents mixed signals: June job openings decreased and hiring numbers fell, indicating a weak labor market, while the July consumer confidence index rose to 97.2, exceeding expectations [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.330%, the lowest since July 3, reflecting market risk aversion and bets on a shift in Federal Reserve policy [4] - Following the U.S.-EU and U.S.-Japan trade agreements, external risks have decreased, potentially creating space for a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a small upward movement after four consecutive days of decline, indicating a potential slowdown in the downtrend [7] - Key resistance levels for gold are at 3335/3336 and 3345, while support levels are at 3302/3301, 3282, and 3275 [7][9] - The four-hour chart suggests that if gold can hold above the 3302/3301 level, it may confirm an upward structure, with targets set at 3354, 3370, and 3386/3387 [9]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices showed insufficient upward momentum and retreated, with the market adopting a short-light positioning strategy [1] - The upcoming week will face multiple significant risk events, including international trade dynamics, central bank interest rate decisions, and key economic data from the US [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during its meeting on July 30, despite strong expectations for a rate cut in September [1] - The two-year Treasury yield slightly increased to 3.926%, indicating subtle adjustments in market interest rate expectations [1] - Gold prices are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations, and a clear signal of rate cuts from the Fed could weaken the dollar, providing upward momentum for gold prices [1] - Current market expectations favor the Fed maintaining stable rates, coupled with a strong dollar, which poses downward pressure on gold prices [1] Geopolitical Factors - Trump set a 10 to 12-day ultimatum for Russia to make progress in the Ukraine conflict, threatening sanctions and tariffs, which provoked a strong response from Russia [2] - The deteriorating situation in the Middle East, particularly Israel's military actions in Gaza, has increased demand for gold as a safe haven [2] - The UN reported that over half of Gaza's population faces severe food insecurity, raising international concern [2] - The complex geopolitical landscape diminishes hopes for peace, potentially increasing gold's safe-haven demand [2] Market Performance - The US bond market and stock market dynamics provide important context for gold price movements [2] - On July 28, US Treasury prices fell, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rising to 4.414% and 4.962%, respectively, reflecting optimistic market sentiment regarding the global economic outlook [2] - The strong performance of the stock market, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, indicates investor preference for risk assets, which further compresses gold's attractiveness [3] - The upcoming earnings season and key economic data releases, including PCE inflation and employment reports, may introduce new market volatility [3] Technical Analysis - Gold is currently facing multiple challenges, including a strong dollar, rising risk appetite, and increasing real interest rates [3] - The technical level of $3,300 for gold is at risk, and if breached, it may test the support level of $3,250 [3] - Two key variables to watch are the Fed's policy statement and potential setbacks in US-China trade negotiations [3] - The current spot prices are approximately $3,315 per ounce for gold and $38.11 per ounce for silver [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is currently lacking a driving force for a trend, with various factors contributing to market uncertainty and mixed sentiments among investors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market's risk aversion is weakening, and the rapid rebound of the US dollar index has led to gold prices experiencing a third failed rebound since April, indicating a divide between bullish and bearish sentiments [1][2]. - Recent US economic data shows resilience, with initial jobless claims continuing to decline, the services PMI reaching a recent high, and durable goods orders exceeding expectations, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1][3]. - The ongoing trade agreements between the US and countries like Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, as well as a framework with the EU and new negotiations with China, have further decreased market uncertainty, negatively impacting precious metals [1][3]. Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - The gold market is expected to maintain a sideways trend as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with limited pricing for a potential rate cut [3][4]. - Despite the strengthening of the US dollar, gold prices have shown some resilience, with a decline of only about 0.74% even as the dollar appreciated over 1%, indicating strategic buyers are still willing to accumulate gold positions [3][4]. - Silver is benefiting from the stagnation in gold prices and the expectation of a return to a favorable gold-silver ratio, suggesting that a strategy of buying on dips remains advisable [1][2]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions and Future Outlook - The short-term consolidation of gold prices is expected to continue as the market has not yet identified a catalyst to restart an upward trend, although central bank purchases remain a key driver for gold price increases [4]. - The desire of central banks to reduce reliance on the US dollar as a reserve currency and mitigate risks associated with US sanctions is contributing to the ongoing dynamics in the gold market [4].

智通财经APP获悉，美元汇率出现自 5 月初以来最大涨幅，有望实现今年的首次月度上涨。与此同时， 美国与欧盟达成的贸易协议再度引发了人们对关税对全球经济增长影响的担忧。周一，彭博美元现货指 数较主要同类指数上涨了 0.8%。尽管与年初相比仍大幅下跌，但7月迄今，该美元指数已上涨了 1.5%。 彭博宏观策略师指出："欧洲央行原本预计贸易摩擦会较为温和，但最终达成的协议却包含了更高的关 税以及更为严重的后果。这一误判如今正对美元造成重大影响。" 此举有助于缓解有关贸易的诸多担忧。美国和中国官员结束了为期两天的首轮会谈，此次会谈旨在将双 方的关税休战协议延长至 8 月中旬之后。 美国与欧盟于周末宣布达成15%税率关税协议，使得美元相对于 G10 组别中的所有货币汇率均有所上 升，其中欧元跌幅最大。因为投资者纷纷将美元视为避险货币，同时也在权衡关税对欧洲及全球经济增 长的影响。 富国银行的策略师Aroop Chatterjee说道："这表明，鉴于这些不对称的'协议'，实际的关税措施将对世 界其他地区的经济增长产生负面影响。" 该协议使得欧盟的出口商品所面临的关税水平远高于欧盟对美国进口商品征收的关税水平。欧盟委员会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry [1] Core Insights - The gold jewelry industry is experiencing a shift towards younger consumers and a trend towards "Guochao" (national trend) aesthetics, with rising demand for traditional craftsmanship and small-weight gold products [4][5] - The price of gold is expected to maintain an upward trend due to geopolitical factors and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with COMEX gold prices stabilizing between $3,300 and $3,500 per ounce [4] - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry in China reached CNY 194.8 billion in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.3% [20] Summary by Sections Section 1: Gold Price Trends - The gold jewelry industry index is experiencing a synchronized rise, driven by increasing gold prices and product upgrades [20] Section 2: Gold Jewelry Industry - The retail sales of gold jewelry are growing faster than the overall retail market, with a notable increase in demand driven by rising gold prices and seasonal consumption peaks [20][21] - The gold jewelry market is projected to reach CNY 5,688 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6% from 2019 to 2024 [26] Section 3: Industry Chain Analysis - The gold jewelry industry value chain includes upstream mining, midstream design and manufacturing, and downstream retail, with a focus on brand value creation [65] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a concentration of market share among leading brands, with the top five companies holding a significant portion of the market [76] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Laopuhuangjin, Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, Chao Hong Ji, and Cai Bai Co., Ltd. [6]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $3338.36 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.06% [1] - Last week, international gold prices experienced fluctuations due to a weaker dollar, trade tensions, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, ultimately closing down nearly 0.35% [1] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce announced that the tariff extension will not be prolonged beyond August 1, and President Trump stated that a 15% tariff agreement with the EU has been reached, which is expected to reduce safe-haven demand for gold [1][2] Group 2 - The recent stabilization of the U.S. dollar index has not led to a breakthrough of previous high points, maintaining pressure on gold prices [2] - The market is currently focused on U.S. tariff negotiations, with lower uncertainty compared to April, which has prevented gold prices from breaking upward [2][4] - The U.S. labor market data has shown unexpected improvement, contributing to a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which exert significant downward pressure on gold prices [1][2] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) saw a decline of 0.28% with a trading volume of 2.91 billion yuan [3] - The gold market is expected to remain in a volatile range, with attention on geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policies, and liquidity shocks that could trigger gold price corrections [4] - Long-term investment in gold ETFs is suggested due to their ability to hedge against tail risks and their stable performance across economic cycles [5]

市场将关注7月的JOLTS职位空缺和美国消费者信心指数。交易者将收到ADP就业数据、第二季度美国 初步GDP和待售房屋销售数据。当天还将有加拿大银行、美联储利率决议和日本银行的货币政策决定。 周四将公布7月的最新PCE通胀数据和每周初请失业金数据，周五以7月非农就业数据和ISM制造业PMI 结束本周。未来一周金价将"延续震荡偏弱走势，因市场风险偏好回升"。市场参与者正屏息以待美联储 政策信号，这场货币政策与避险需求的博弈将决定黄金下一步走向。 周一（7月28日）亚市早盘，现货黄金探底回升，盘初一度延续上周五跌势至3320关口附近，因美国和 欧洲达成贸易协议，令黄金避险需求进一步下降，但金价受到逢低买盘支撑，很快收复大部分跌幅，目 前交投于3335美元/盎司附近。因美元走强、美欧贸易协议的乐观情绪的压制，上周五金价收跌近1%， 为连续三个交易日下跌，收报3336.49美元/盎司。 与此同时，全球央行购金的趋势为黄金提供了坚实的底部支撑。许多国家正通过增持黄金来减少对美元 的依赖，这一趋势将在未来持续推动金价上行。中国央行增持黄金的传闻尤其引人关注，尽管具体数据 尚未公开，但市场普遍预期中国等新兴市场国家将继续加 ...

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Safe-Haven Demand Cools, Pressuring Gold and Silver [1] Report Date - July 28, 2025 [2] Report Author - Bai Suna [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With Trump announcing trade agreements with more countries, global trade tensions ease, reducing safe-haven demand and pressuring precious metal prices. Monitor the progress of US-EU negotiations and China-US-Sweden economic and trade talks, and beware of tariff policy fluctuations as the August 1 tariff suspension period ends [5] - The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, indicating the end of the ECB's easing cycle. The Fed is also likely to keep rates unchanged in July, temporarily suppressing precious metal prices. Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut rates continues, but the dollar credit risk is alleviated, weakening gold's short-term upward drive. However, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is over 60%, providing medium-term support for gold prices. Focus on key US economic data this week [5] - In the first half of the week, the commodity trading limit-up atmosphere boosted Shanghai silver to break through the 9,500 yuan/kg mark. But as gold weakened and commodities tumbled on Friday night, silver prices were dragged down. As the irrational commodity rally subsides, silver's short-term resilience may weaken, and it is expected to return to fundamental logic in the medium term [5] - Strategy: Buy gold on dips; stay on the sidelines for silver [5] - Long-term view: Bullish. With the Fed likely to cut rates in the second half of the year, global geopolitical tensions remaining complex, de-globalization intensifying, and the weakening of the US dollar credit, central banks will continue to be net buyers of gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking Gold and Silver Prices and Gold-Silver Ratio - London spot gold was at $3,336.22/oz, down $13.435 (-0.40%) from the previous week; Shanghai gold futures were at 777.32 yuan/g, up 0.3 yuan (0.04%) [4] - London spot silver was at $38.137/oz, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous week; Shanghai silver futures were at 9,392 yuan/kg, up 119 yuan (1.28%) [4] - SHFE gold-silver ratio was 82.76, down 1.03 (-1.23%) from the previous week [4] ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR-ETF holdings were 957.09 tons, up 13.47 tons (1.43%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX gold non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 253,038 contracts, up 39,923 contracts (18.73%) from the previous week [4] - Silver SLV-ETF holdings were 15,230 tons, up 572 tons (3.90%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 60,620 contracts, up 1,172 contracts (1.97%) from the previous week [4] Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory was 30.258 tons, up 1.4 tons (4.85%) from the previous week; COMEX gold inventory was 1,174.54 tons, up 17.74 tons (1.53%) from the previous week [4] - SHFE silver inventory was 1,187 tons, down 23.82 tons (-1.97%) from the previous week; COMEX silver inventory was 15,562 tons, up 95.7 tons (0.62%) from the previous week; SGE silver inventory (lagging one week) was 1,312 tons, down 15.21 tons (-1.15%) from the previous week [4] 2. Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was 97.6701, down 0.7899 (-0.80%) from the previous week; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1681, down 0.0129 (-0.18%) from the previous week [4] - The 2-year US Treasury yield was 3.9275%, up 0.0647 (1.67%) from the previous week; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.3878%, down 0.0217 (-0.49%) from the previous week; the US 10-year real interest rate was 1.96%, down 0.07 (-3.45%) from the previous week [4] Economic Data - The US first-quarter GDP growth rate unexpectedly contracted; the consumer confidence index improved for the first time in half a year [59] - The US manufacturing PMI and service PMI were better than expected; the US retail sales data showed positive trends [60] - The US June non-farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate declined [66] - Inflation in the US rebounded slightly, but inflation expectations cooled [73] - The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded; the eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined [82] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, with 73.9 million ounces at the end of June, a month-on-month increase of 700,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) [91] - Global central banks remained net buyers of gold. In the first quarter of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net-purchased 243.7 tons of gold, a year-on-year decrease of about 21.4%. Despite the decline in the first quarter, the overall performance remained strong, and global central banks were expected to continue net-purchasing gold [91]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, precious metal prices experienced a strong upward trend followed by high-level fluctuations, influenced by macroeconomic policy changes [1] - The price of gold was re-evaluated as a core safe-haven and anti-inflation asset, recovering quickly after a brief decline due to the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April [1] - The gold-silver ratio initially rose and then fell, peaking above 100 due to heightened inflation concerns and uncertainty in global economic prospects, before correcting as market sentiment improved [1] Group 2 - In the second half of the year, expectations of a weak U.S. economy and a clearer outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts, along with a declining dollar index, create a favorable macro environment for precious metal prices [2] - Gold is expected to benefit from ongoing uncertainties related to trade tensions, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical factors, which will enhance its safe-haven appeal [2] - Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with ongoing conflicts and instability in various regions, contributing to sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3 - In 2025, silver is projected to maintain a supply-demand gap of 4,000 tons, but high inventory levels may limit its commodity attributes [3] - The supply growth of silver is expected to slow to 2% year-on-year due to high base effects and reduced new silver mining projects, while industrial demand is forecasted to decline by approximately 1% [3] - The precious metals market is anticipated to have upward potential in the second half of 2025, with gold prices expected to range between $3,200 and $3,600 per ounce, while silver prices are projected to range between $32 and $38 per ounce [3]