Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade showed resilience and growth despite the challenges posed by the US tariff war, with significant increases in both exports and imports in April 2023, indicating a strong economic recovery and adaptability of Chinese enterprises [2][14][28]. Trade Performance - In April 2023, China's total goods trade reached 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports at 2.27 trillion yuan (up 9.3%) and imports at 1.57 trillion yuan (up 0.8%) [2]. - The growth rate of imports turned positive after a decline, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand [14][28]. Key Factors Driving Growth - High-tech product exports were a significant driver, with 1.52 trillion yuan in exports (up 7.4%), accounting for 18.1% of total exports [14]. - The export of marine engineering equipment and industrial robots saw substantial growth, with increases of 16.4% and 58.3% respectively [14]. - The rise in the number of private enterprises participating in foreign trade, which accounted for 56.9% of total trade, also contributed to the growth [25][27]. Market Diversification - Companies are diversifying their markets to mitigate the impact of tariffs, with exports to ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa increasing significantly [29]. - The share of exports to the US has dropped below 15%, indicating a strategic shift towards emerging markets [29]. Technological Advancements - The transition from low-value to high-value products is evident, with significant growth in exports of machinery and electronics, particularly integrated circuits and automobiles [30]. - Private enterprises are increasingly becoming the backbone of foreign trade, showcasing strong innovation capabilities [30]. Policy Support - The Chinese government is implementing supportive policies to reduce burdens on foreign trade enterprises, enhancing efficiency and competitiveness [33]. - The combination of policy measures and institutional reforms is expected to continue benefiting the foreign trade sector [31][33]. Long-term Implications - The ongoing tariff war is accelerating China's restructuring within the global supply chain, pushing for a transition from cost advantages to technological and brand strength [34].

"真的完全不清楚应该怎么做""货币政策根本无从下手""无法判断最终结果会是怎样。"本周，美联储连续第三次决定不降息后，其主席鲍威尔说了这几句 话。是什么，让美国央行一把手都"懵圈"了？我是党报评论员，今天给你解读。 美国政府挥舞关税大棒，如今自食恶果——供应链断裂，物价飙升！有美国记者追问："我们只能看着工人失业吗？"工会领袖的回答就一个词 儿："yeah！"这一幕，也成为美国经济困局的生动写照。 皮球踢到美联储，鲍威尔正面临两难境地：降息怕通胀脱缰，不降又怕经济崩盘。这边美联储按兵不动，那边白宫却频频施压要求降息，指责鲍威尔 是"迟到先生"(Mr.Too Late)和"首席败将"(a Major Loser)。鲍威尔估计也是一肚子气：你瞎征关税，经济出了毛病，让我当背锅侠？ 关税战没有赢家。但有的国家乱成一锅粥，有的国家却能应对有方。前一阵子，在中国义乌的一家工厂里，谈到贸易战，一个工人反问："你以为我们怕 美国吗？"另一些工人称"影响肯定有""最终能扛过去"。这段对话被记录下来，发表在美国《大西洋月刊》上，让很多美国人陷入深思：为什么中国人能 这么有底气？ 我觉得啊，这里边儿的原因至少有两个。 一个是经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategist Michael Hartnett from Bank of America has maintained a bearish outlook on the stock market since the beginning of 2025, expressing concerns that fear and panic regarding the market will persist even if the trade war initiated by President Trump dissipates [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Market Sentiment** - There is an expectation that the phenomenon of stock market recovery will fade [1]

美国总统在美联储拒绝降息后，8日再次在社交媒体上炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，称其为"太迟先生"，什么 都不懂。彭博社指出，美总统的言论可能令当前摇摆不定的市场进一步陷入不安。 8日，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文称，"太迟先生"杰罗姆·鲍威尔什么都不懂。石油和能源价格在下降， 几乎所有的成本（包括食品和鸡蛋）都在下跌。根本没有什么通胀，关税收入正在涌入美国——这与"太 迟先生"说的恰恰相反！ 美媒：政客追求短期繁荣 不惜牺牲长远利益 彭博社则在8日报道称，特朗普的言论再次挑战了美联储的独立性，此举可能令已经因美总统不断变化的 关税计划而摇摆不定的市场进一步陷入不安。彭博社还指出，这位美国总统多次就是否解雇鲍威尔发出矛 盾信号。上个月，特朗普公开说考虑解雇鲍威尔，其首席经济顾问称政府正在研究总统是否具备此权限 ——但特朗普随后又说无意采取行动。 鲍威尔：关税战带来通胀和失业上涨风险 7日，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布美联储决定维持利率不变，称特朗普的关税战已经带来通胀和失业率上升的 风险。 美联储主席 鲍威尔：7日，联邦公开市场委员会决定维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变。失业率上升和通胀 上升的风险已经提高，到目前为止宣布的关税上调 ...

Core Insights - China's foreign trade maintained a stable growth trend in the first four months of the year, with a total import and export value of 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4][9] - In April, the total value of goods trade reached 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports at 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, and imports at 1.57 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.8% [3][9] Trade Performance - Exports in April exceeded market expectations, driven by factors such as "export grabbing" in markets outside the U.S., resilient external demand, and the timing of tariff policies [5][10] - The export growth rate in April was 8.1% in dollar terms, despite a significant decline in exports to the U.S. by 21.0%, which pulled down the overall export growth by approximately 3 percentage points [5][10] Key Trade Partners - ASEAN and the EU emerged as China's largest and second-largest trading partners, with exports to ASEAN growing by 12.6% and to the EU by 6.1%, both significantly higher than the overall foreign trade growth rate [9][10] - In April, exports to ASEAN surged by 20.8%, which helped offset the decline in exports to the U.S. [10] Sector Performance - Labor-intensive products showed low growth, with a combined monthly year-on-year change of -0.8%, while exports of general machinery and equipment, ships, and integrated circuits saw significant increases of 17.0%, 36.1%, and 20.2% respectively [6][9] Private Sector Contribution - The share of private enterprises in foreign trade continued to rise, accounting for 56.9% of total trade value in the first four months, with exports from private enterprises growing by 8.1% [10]

Group 1 - The recent high-level economic talks between China and the US were initiated at the request of the US, with China agreeing to engage after careful evaluation of US communications regarding tariffs [1] - China maintains a consistent stance against the US's imposition of tariffs, emphasizing the need to uphold its legitimate rights and international fairness, as well as the rules of the WTO and multilateral trade system [1] - The trade conflict is characterized as initiated by the US, and for meaningful dialogue to occur, the US must cease its threats and engage in discussions based on equality, respect, and reciprocity [1][3] Group 2 - The urgency of the talks is perceived to be more on the US side, as the US economy heavily relies on imports from China, particularly in the manufacturing sector, while China has a robust manufacturing base [3] - The trade tensions are not merely about tariffs but represent a strategic gamble over the future of international order, with the US attempting to suppress China's development through tariffs [3] - The resilience of the Chinese economy and the rapid growth of emerging industries challenge the US's expectations, while the US faces internal issues such as fiscal deficits and inflation [3] Group 3 - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the Trump administration is considering exemptions from high tariffs on essential children's products imported from China, reflecting the pressure from various industries [5] - A survey by the American Toy Association revealed that nearly half of the respondents would face bankruptcy if the current tariff policies continue, highlighting the significant impact on consumers and businesses [5] - The US toy industry is heavily reliant on Chinese imports, with over 80% of toys sourced from China, indicating a potential crisis if tariffs remain in place [5] Group 4 - The terminology used by both sides reflects their positions, with the US calling the discussions "negotiations" while China refers to them as "contacts," indicating a difference in urgency and readiness [7] - The strategic initiative appears to be with China, as it is prepared for a prolonged struggle, while the US is seen as lacking the readiness to maintain a firm stance [7] - The US must recognize the reality of the situation and demonstrate genuine willingness to engage, or future opportunities for talks may become increasingly difficult to achieve [7]

Export Performance - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, a 2.4 percentage point rise from March, driven by a second wave of export rush[3] - The strong export performance exceeded previous expectations of 5.7%, highlighting significant export momentum[3] - The trade surplus for April narrowed slightly to $96.18 billion, but remained at a high level[3] Import Trends - April imports saw a reduced decline of 0.2%, a 4.1 percentage point improvement from March[4] - The rebound in imports indicates stable overall domestic demand growth[5] - Key categories such as energy imports showed signs of recovery, contributing to the overall import performance[5] Trade Relations and Tariff Impact - The U.S. has begun to ease its tariff stance, which is expected to support continued export growth into the second quarter[6] - Exports to ASEAN countries rose significantly by 15.9 percentage points to 20.8%, while exports to the U.S. fell sharply by 21.0%[4] - The ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. may further influence export dynamics in the coming months[6] Sector-Specific Insights - The semiconductor and electronics sectors contributed positively to total exports, adding 0.4 percentage points to the year-on-year growth[5] - Automotive and steel products, which had previously faced tariffs, have seen adjustments in export destinations, enhancing their contribution to overall export growth[5] - Mid-range consumer goods experienced a short-term decline in exports due to tariff impacts, but are expected to recover gradually[5] Economic Outlook - The risk of export decline remains in the second half of the year due to ongoing uncertainties in global trade policies[7] - The Chinese economy's resilience will depend on stabilizing real estate market expectations and boosting consumer demand[6] - Monetary and fiscal policies are being adjusted to support economic stability amid complex international conditions[6]

Group 1 - The "reciprocal tariff" policy initiated by the US has significantly impacted China's foreign trade industry, leading to a deep examination of the effects on businesses and their strategies to cope with the situation [1][3][4] - Many companies are considering shifting their focus to emerging markets or exploring transshipment trade as a means to mitigate losses from increased tariffs [1][3][20] - A survey indicated that 35.1% of companies believe they are minimally affected by the tariffs, while 31% feel a significant impact due to their high reliance on US exports [5][6] Group 2 - Financial institutions are actively conducting assessments of businesses to understand their exposure to US trade and the potential impacts of the tariff situation [6][10] - Banks have expressed a commitment to support businesses facing difficulties due to the tariffs, with measures in place to ensure that financing is not withdrawn from viable companies [10][11] - The construction of new financial products and services aimed at supporting foreign trade enterprises has been initiated, including tailored loans and insurance products [13][14][25] Group 3 - Companies with overseas factories are better positioned to adapt to the changing trade environment, as they can shift production to locations like Thailand or Vietnam [4][16][18] - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies has prompted many businesses to consider establishing manufacturing bases in Southeast Asia to ensure supply chain stability [16][19] - The trend of moving production overseas is expected to continue, driven by the need for companies to remain competitive amid fluctuating trade policies [18][30] Group 4 - The shift towards emerging markets is being supported by financial institutions, which are providing services to help companies expand their operations internationally [21][22] - Trade data shows that China's exports to neighboring countries have increased, indicating a successful pivot towards new markets [21][22] - Financial institutions are also focusing on enhancing their services to support businesses in navigating the complexities of new market entry [22][30] Group 5 - The payment and settlement sectors are beginning to feel the effects of the trade tensions, with potential shifts in cross-border payment strategies as companies adapt to new trade routes [23][24] - There is an expectation that regional cross-border payment systems will gain prominence as businesses diversify their markets [24][30] - Financial institutions are implementing measures to assist companies in managing currency risks associated with the ongoing trade disputes [25][27]

采购5000万元！ 南农真乡平台联 动美迅喊全国电 商卖罗非鱼_南 方+_南方plus "我们将采购 5000万元的罗非 鱼，用于开发罗 非鱼烤鱼、罗非 鱼罐头等产品， 助力罗非鱼出口 转内销，开拓国 内市场。"5月9 日，广州美迅信 息技术有限公司 副总经理钱明在 茂名化州考察完 罗非鱼基地后， 做出了采购5000 万元的决定。 广州美迅信息技术有限公司与真乡平台一行在茂名化州杨梅镇考察鱼塘。 当前关税战背景 下，我国罗非鱼 输美订单几乎全 部暂停，罗非鱼 产业深受打击， 销售价格下跌， 急于寻求新的销 售出路。作为全 国最大的罗非鱼 产区，茂名有30 万罗非鱼从业人 员。"这样大的 采购订单，给我 们带来了信心。 希望在媒体的呼 吁下，有更多的 国内企业来采购 我们的罗非鱼， 这样我们就不怕 美国的关税战 了。"杨梅镇鱼 塘养殖户陈汉熙 说。 关税政策让养殖 户"亏大本" 产业面临"至暗 时刻" 鱼出塘价格上下 有所浮动，而目 前行情，几乎就 是罗非鱼的养殖 成本价；美国对 华关税政策让茂 名罗非鱼价格最 低一度达到3.6 元/斤。 受到关税政策承 压的，不仅仅是 罗非鱼养殖户， 上游的鱼苗产业 和下游的 ...

另外，4月中国从美国进口下降13.8%，没有出口下降的多。4月对美国贸易顺差204.58亿美元，同比减少24.8%。贸易顺差下降，特朗普应该高兴一点了吧。 特朗普的关税战败了吗？美国从中国进口下降21%，但我国出口总额却增长8.1%。 海关总署发布的数据显示，按美元计价，4月份，中国对美国出口330.24亿美元，同比降21%，也就是美国对中国商品加征145%的关税后，进口下降了 21%。 | | | | | 来源:中国海关总署 制表:北海居 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当月値 | | | | | | 金额(亿美元) | 2025年 | | 占比 (%) | | | | 2024年4月 2025年4月 | 同比(%) | 2024年4月 | 2025年4月 | 变化 | | 中国贸易总额 | 5118 41 5352.05 | 4.0 | 100.00 | 100.00 | | | 中国出口总额 | 2919 14 3156.92 | 8.1 | 100.00 | 100.00 | | | 中国进口总额 | 2199.27 2195.12 | ...