银行 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 5 月 19 日 红利仍然是银行的主线，关注银行股投资价值，建议关注招商银行、农业银行。 政府债靠前发力，社融同比多增 4 月社融余额同比增长 8.7%，较上月回升 0.3 个百分点，4 月社融增量 1.16 万亿元，同比多增 1.22 万亿元，略少于万得一致预期 1.26 万亿元。主要支 撑来自政府债、企业债和人民币贷款，同比多增主要来自政府债。 4 月政府债券净融资 9729 万亿元，同比多增 1.07 万亿元。企业直接融资增加 2731 亿元，同比多增 838 亿元。4 月人民币贷款新增 884 亿元，同比少增 2465 亿元。委托贷款和信托贷款合计同比多减 310 亿元：委托贷款略降 2 亿元， 同比少减 91 亿元，信托贷款下降 77 亿元，同比多减 219 亿元，未贴现银票 下降 2794 亿元，同比少减 1696 亿元，贡献同比多增。 信贷需求偏弱，票据高增冲量 4 月人民币贷款新增 2800 亿元，同比少增 4500 亿元，推测或由于"对等关 税"冲击，信贷需求偏弱。 强于大市 4 月金融数据点评 关税冲击影响信贷需求 4 月全口径人民币贷款 ...

【环球时报记者 李迅典 环球时报特约记者 文简】美国政府为全球多数贸易伙伴设置的"对等关税"90天 宽限期已快过半。18日，美国财政部长贝森特在接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）"会见媒体"节目采访时 表示，对于缺乏谈判诚意的贸易伙伴，美国对其征收的关税税率将恢复至最高水平。这番强硬表态引发 外媒解读，英国《金融时报》称："这表明关税谈判已变得多么紧张，与美国总统最近宣称各国正急于 与美国谈判形成了鲜明对比。" 在特朗普17日抨击沃尔玛大幅提价以应对关税的举动后，贝森特18日对NBC表示，他已与沃尔玛首席 执行官道格·麦克米伦进行交谈，"沃尔玛实际上会承担部分关税"。他同时承认，部分关税可能会转嫁 给消费者。 "中国在与美国进行关税休战会谈中表现出的强硬立场，使一些国家相信，在与美国政府的贸易谈判中 自己也需要采取更强硬的立场。"彭博社18日报道称，一周前中美发表的联合声明显示，尽管中国仍将 面临较高的关税税率，但相比此前的145%关税税率已大幅下降，"从首尔到布鲁塞尔，各国政府都感到 意外"。在中国的强硬谈判策略赢得对其暂时有利的结果后，一些国家开始质疑目前采取的外交等手段 是否有效。 彭博社称，尽管官员们不愿 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the chemical industry, particularly focusing on the impacts of tariff changes on the olefin supply chain [5]. Core Insights - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs by China on U.S. imports has led to increased costs for imported goods, particularly affecting the ethane and propane markets [12][15]. - The chemical industry in China shows a manageable overall import dependency, but certain raw materials exhibit high reliance on U.S. imports, notably ethane and propane [3][19]. - The report highlights the potential shift in trade flows for propane imports from the U.S. to countries like Qatar and the UAE due to rising costs from tariffs [4][13]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The U.S. has implemented a series of tariff adjustments, with China responding by increasing tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% [15][16]. - The recent negotiations have led to a temporary suspension of some tariffs, but a 10% tariff remains in place, which could still affect import costs [18][28]. Import Dependency - In 2024, China imported $11.1 billion worth of liquefied propane, with 59.2% sourced from the U.S., while ethane imports were almost entirely from the U.S. with a dependency rate of 98.7% [3][26]. - The overall import dependency of the chemical industry is around 11%, with specific categories like chemical products showing higher reliance on U.S. imports [25][19]. Production and Cost Structure - The report indicates that the production of polyethylene and polypropylene in China has significantly increased, with capacities reaching 58.19 million tons and 72.11 million tons respectively by April 2025 [29][30]. - The cost structure of different production routes shows that coal-based and gas-based methods are becoming more prominent, reducing the correlation of olefin prices with crude oil prices [39][47]. Future Considerations - The report advises monitoring the ongoing changes in tariff policies and their implications for the cost structure of the olefin industry, particularly for propane dehydrogenation (PDH) processes [5][28]. - The potential for alternative sourcing of propane and the feasibility of toll processing for ethane are highlighted as strategies to mitigate tariff impacts [4][14].

Core Viewpoint - The April economic data indicates a mixed performance in China's economy, with strong industrial production and consumption, but a decline in investment and real estate sectors [1][13]. Demand Side - April's external demand faced challenges due to reciprocal tariffs, leading to a significant drop in exports to the US; however, transshipment trade helped maintain export resilience [1][2]. - Internal demand showed a decline in both investment and consumption, although consumption remained at a high level; investment was dragged down by the real estate and manufacturing sectors [1][7]. Production Side - Industrial production maintained a high level, with April's industrial value-added growth rate dropping to 6.1%, supported by equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [3][5]. - The service sector's production index slightly decreased, but still benefited from low base effects and consumption recovery [3]. Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment growth rate fell by 0.8 percentage points to 3.5%, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [7]. - High-tech industry investments performed well, particularly in information services and computer manufacturing, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.6% and 28.9% respectively [7]. Consumption Patterns - Retail sales growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 5.1%, while service retail sales showed an upward trend, particularly in tourism-related sectors [9]. - Essential consumer goods saw a decline in growth, while sectors benefiting from trade-in programs performed strongly [9]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth rate worsened to -2.1%, with new construction area also declining significantly [11]. - Despite the drop in sales volume, housing prices continued to rise, with the decline in new and second-hand housing prices narrowing [11]. Employment and External Factors - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, indicating a steady employment situation despite external challenges [13]. - Future export performance may exceed expectations due to potential European recovery, although this could lead to a more cautious domestic policy response [13].

据环球时报报道，韩国与美国就关税问题近日在韩国济州岛展开为期3天的协商。据韩国纽西斯通讯社日前报 道，韩国产业通商资源部长官安德根定于16日与美国贸易代表格里尔在时隔3周后再次会面。此次会谈能否形成 韩美关税谈判的具体轮廓备受关注。 特朗普（资料图） 韩联社此前指出，美国对韩国进口商品的关税税率（25%）高于日本（24%）和欧盟（20%），将导致韩国在对 美出口竞争中处于不利地位。 韩国代行总统职权的国务总理韩德洙韩德洙表示，全球关税战已成现实，当前经济形势极为严峻，政府必须全力 以赴，克服当前的贸易危机。韩德洙指示产业通商资源部长官安德根携手韩企就美方对等关税措施的具体内容进 行分析，积极与美方开展沟通协商，为汽车等受影响较大的行业和企业制定扶持政策。 多年来，韩国对美出口不断增长，2024年出口总额已达1278亿美元，对美贸易顺差更创下557亿美元的历史新 高。然而，这一成就并未为韩国赢得贸易上的优待，反而成为特朗普"秋后算账"的借口。特朗普高举"对等关 税"大旗，本质上并非追求真正的贸易平衡，而是一次赤裸裸的经济霸凌。在他眼中，任何拥有顺差的国家，都 是"薅美国羊毛"的掠夺者。而韩国，恰恰是他眼中"过于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of East Asian currencies, particularly the New Taiwan Dollar, against the backdrop of optimistic expectations regarding tariff negotiations and the weakening of the US dollar [1][2][5]. Currency Performance - During the May 1 holiday, East Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar, Hong Kong Dollar, and South Korean Won, collectively appreciated, with the New Taiwan Dollar rising over 9% in two trading days [1]. - The offshore Renminbi also showed strength, surpassing the 7.19 mark for the first time since November of the previous year [2]. Economic Context - The strengthening of East Asian currencies is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar and the trade surpluses maintained by economies like South Korea and Taiwan, which have accumulated significant dollar assets [2][5]. - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, with the index falling below 100 due to concerns over "stagflation" risks and uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies [2][3]. US Economic Indicators - The US GDP for the first quarter declined at an annualized rate of -0.3%, which was below market expectations, indicating economic slowdown [2][4]. - Consumer confidence in the US has also dropped, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index falling to 52.2, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline [3]. Investment Trends - Private investment in the US showed a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.9%, contributing 3.6 percentage points to GDP, largely driven by inventory accumulation [3][4]. - However, as the "reciprocal tariffs" take effect, the support from inventory for GDP is expected to weaken in the second quarter [3]. Trade Deficits - The US trade deficit is projected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2024, with significant deficits against East Asian countries, particularly China, Mexico, and Vietnam [6]. - Taiwan's trade surplus is bolstered by its competitive advantages in the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, which constitute a large portion of its exports [10]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the US economy is likely to slow down but not enter a recession, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain a cautious approach regarding interest rate changes [4][5]. - The long-term outlook for the Renminbi remains positive due to strong domestic policies and economic resilience, while the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend amid favorable conditions [16].

Economic Indicators - In April, industrial added value year-on-year was 6.1%, a significant drop of 1.6 percentage points from March, indicating a slowdown in industrial production[4] - Fixed asset investment in April grew by 3.5% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from March, with infrastructure investment declining by 3 percentage points to 9.6%[7] - Real estate investment in April saw a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%, a slight decline of 1.3 percentage points from March, with new construction area down by 22.1%[11] Consumer and Market Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but still at a relatively high level[13] - Social financing in April grew by 8.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, primarily driven by government bond issuance[16] - The A-share market has shifted from initial panic over economic slowdown to a focus on the extent of economic deceleration, with confidence in the economy improving for the second half of the year[20] Tariff Impact and Policy Response - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has led to a noticeable decline in total demand, with April's PPI showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%[5] - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have eased expectations regarding tariffs, suggesting a potential moderation in the negative impact on the real economy[5] - The central bank's likelihood of significantly tightening monetary policy appears limited due to greater downward pressure on the economy compared to earlier in the year[22]

Core Viewpoint - A South Korean government delegation will visit the U.S. on May 20 to engage in technical discussions regarding tariffs, particularly focusing on "reciprocal tariffs" and reductions on steel, automotive, and semiconductor tariffs, ahead of the presidential election in South Korea on June 3 [1] Group 1: Delegation Details - The delegation is led by Chang Sung-ki, the head of the Trade Policy Bureau at the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy [1] - This meeting is expected to be the last face-to-face working consultation between South Korea and the U.S. before the upcoming presidential election [1] Group 2: Discussion Topics - The discussions will cover six major topics: trade balance, non-tariff measures, economic security, digital trade, origin of goods, and business considerations [1] - The previously agreed "July comprehensive agreement" will be pursued by the next South Korean government [1]

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特当地时间5月18日表示，如果各国在90天的暂停期内未能达成贸易协议，关 税税率将很快恢复到"对等"水平。贝森特称，特朗普已通知各国，如果不"真诚"谈判，关税将回到4月2 日的水平。"贝森特表示，美国最关注的是与18个"重要"贸易伙伴巩固贸易关系。但他没有透露关税何 时会恢复到"对等"税率。特朗普此前曾表示，各国达成贸易协议的时间所剩无几。 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.05% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.07% [1] Institutional Insights - Zhongtai Securities suggests that market indices may maintain strong resilience due to the unexpected suspension of "reciprocal tariffs," which enhances short-term risk appetite. Structural divergences remain, and the space for long-term tariff reductions is limited. The current market environment shows a strengthening of total policy determination, improvement in core city real estate, and high historical levels of margin trading, which, combined with policies emphasizing indices, may support continued resilience in market indices [2] - Investment funds are expected to rotate around sectors with high first-quarter report performance and mid-term industry trends, including public utilities, AI upstream and leading technology firms, gold, nuclear power equipment, military industry, and consumer sectors related to younger demographics such as pets and beauty products. Investors are advised to accumulate positions in these sectors on dips and to focus on high-quality leaders in the CSI 300 with significantly lower institutional allocation compared to index component ratios [2] New Market Dynamics - Minsheng Securities notes that a new order and narrative are emerging as investors begin to price in the marginal easing of trade shocks. However, structural shocks will persist, and the return to fundamental pricing characteristics will gradually become evident. Future declines in total demand and the fluctuating path of trade easing may disrupt market tranquility. The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for technology breakthroughs influencing market risk appetite, while the current phase is characterized by a rotation in investor styles towards technology themes, which may lack sustainability [3] - The gradual establishment of a long-term mechanism for domestic consumption is expected to yield three sources of returns: net profit growth, dividend payments, and valuation increases, with recommendations for sectors such as home appliances, food and beverages, cosmetics, trendy toys, tourism, gaming, and online retail [3] - The restructuring of China's foreign trade system is likely to gradually reveal the value of capacities in advantageous industries, such as machinery and automotive manufacturing, while resource products with significant supply constraints (copper, aluminum, gold) may also see new opportunities [3] - As the economic transition progresses and real estate stabilizes, the de-financialization process in China is nearing its end. The current investment and financing environment for Chinese enterprises is improving, which may drive new expansions in the financial sector, particularly as the new domestic growth paradigm and the acceleration of the RMB internationalization process unfold [3]