Market Performance - U.S. stock indices collectively fell over 2% this week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down 2.36%, 2.92%, and 2.17% respectively[11] - The German DAX, London FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and Korea Composite Index also experienced declines of 3.27%, 0.57%, 1.58%, and 2.40% respectively[11] Economic Data - Non-farm payroll data was significantly below expectations, with a downward revision of 258,000 jobs in the previous two months, leading to increased concerns about economic momentum[5] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, consistent with expectations, primarily influenced by immigration effects[5] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, with a cautious stance on potential rate cuts in September, dropping the probability of a cut below 40% initially[29] - Following the disappointing non-farm data, market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September surged to 80.3%, with predictions for three rate cuts in total this year[29] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.04% over the week, while the euro and Chinese yuan fell by 1.32% and 0.11% respectively[11] - U.S. Treasury yields saw significant declines, with the 2-year yield down 22 basis points and the 10-year yield down 17 basis points by August 1[12] Commodity Market - Gold prices increased by 0.93% amid rising inflation concerns due to tariffs, while copper prices plummeted by 23.88% following a 50% tariff announcement on certain copper products[13] - WTI crude oil prices rose by 3.37% during the week[13] Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various imports, with a 40% transit tax on transshipped goods, effective August 7[34] - Tariff concerns have heightened market volatility and investor caution, impacting overall market sentiment[11]

Core Viewpoint - Apple has successfully reversed its declining revenue trend in Greater China by implementing price reductions, leading to a record high revenue in Q2 of fiscal year 2025 [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Apple reported revenue of $94.036 billion, a 10% increase from $85.777 billion year-over-year, and a net profit of $23.434 billion, up 9% from $21.448 billion [2]. - Revenue from iPhone reached approximately $44.58 billion, a year-over-year growth of nearly 13.5%, while Mac revenue was $8.05 billion, growing 14.8%, and services revenue was $27.42 billion, up nearly 13.3% [2]. Market Dynamics - The growth in Q2 was partly driven by U.S. consumers purchasing devices ahead of tariff implementations, with approximately 1% of the growth attributed to this behavior [4][5]. - Apple incurred about $800 million in tariff costs in Q2, with expectations of these costs rising to $1.1 billion in the next quarter, posing challenges to profitability [5][6]. Regional Performance - Apple achieved a revenue of $15.369 billion in Greater China, marking a growth of over 4% from $14.728 billion year-over-year, successfully reversing a seven-quarter decline [6]. - The sales growth in Greater China was primarily attributed to increased iPhone sales and the impact of government subsidies on digital products [6][7]. Pricing Strategy - Apple has broken its tradition of avoiding price cuts, significantly reducing prices on flagship models like the iPhone 16 Pro to stimulate sales [7]. - The price reduction strategy has led to a surge in sales, with Apple regaining the top position in both sales volume and revenue during the 618 shopping festival [7]. Competitive Landscape - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of sales driven by price reductions, as Apple currently lacks a fundamental advantage over Android competitors [8]. - The closure of an Apple Store in Dalian has raised market concerns about Apple's commitment to the Chinese market, although the company continues to expand its retail presence in other areas [8].

周度报告-黄金 美国 7 月非农爆冷，黄金震荡收涨 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 3 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 0.8%至 3363 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.22%，通胀 预期 2.33%，实际利率降至 1.88%，美元指数涨 1.54%至 99.1，标普 500 指数跌 2.36%，离岸人民币小幅贬值，沪金小幅溢价。 贵 金 属 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，随着 8 月 1 日对等关税生效日的带来， 美国陆续与贸易伙伴达成协议，墨西哥关税协议将延长 90 天，加 拿大关税从 25%升至 35%，韩国加征 15%关税，印度加征 255 关 税，中美搞成谈判意在将关税再度延长 90 天，上午实质进展。整 体而言关税引发的避险情绪有限，当前的不确定性远低于 4 月， 叠加美联储 7 月利率会议按兵不动，美联储主席鲍威尔表态鹰派， 黄金出现回调，一度跌破 3300 美金以及 60 日均线。但美联储内 部分歧巨大，鲍曼和沃勒两位理事投票降息，后续特朗普也将提 名更加倾向降息的人选。美国经济数据喜忧参半，首先是二季度 GDP 数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Patsalides indicates that the Eurozone economy is demonstrating resilience, with current uncertainties primarily attributed to tariffs [1] Group 1 - The Eurozone economy is showing signs of resilience despite challenges [1] - Current uncertainties in the economic landscape are mainly due to tariff-related issues [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the significant downward revision of June non-farm data reflects substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy due to tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains highly certain [2][4][17] - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating pressure on the U.S. job market [6][11][22] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month, while the average hourly wage increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% [1][6][31] Group 2 - In July, the financial activities, healthcare, and retail sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing a stable demand in the service sector [3][22] - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating insufficient production willingness among enterprises [3][22] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [26][31] Group 3 - The downward revision of June non-farm data was primarily due to significant adjustments in government, leisure, and hotel employment, which collectively accounted for a 90,000 downward revision, representing nearly 70% of the total revision [12][17] - The cumulative downward revision for May and June non-farm data reached 258,000, while the July employment figure of 73,000 is a significant drop compared to the average monthly increase of over 100,000 in the first quarter [4][17] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability for the first cut in September [4][21][37] Group 4 - The average hourly wage growth has shown an upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in July, higher than the previous 0.2% [37][39] - The service sector's job growth in July rebounded to 96,000, compared to a previous value of 16,000, indicating a relatively stable demand in the service industry [22][31] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with second-quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, while core GDP growth has declined [18][22]

格隆汇8月3日｜当地时间8月2日，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦发布最新财报。截至二季度末，伯克希尔 前五大持仓分别为美国运通、苹果、美国银行、可口可乐和雪佛龙。财报显示， 2025年第二季度实现 营收925.15亿美元，上年同期为936.53亿美元；归属于伯克希尔股东的净收益为123.70亿美元，上年同 期为303.48亿美元，净利润暴跌59%。财报显示，巴菲特的现金储备从3月底的3470亿美元小幅下降至 3441亿美元（约合人民币2.48万亿元），这是三年来首次减少。 巴菲特在财报中再次对特朗普的关税及其对旗下各业务的潜在影响发出严厉警告。伯克希尔在财报中表 示："这些事件的变化速度，包括由国际贸易政策和关税发展引发的紧张局势，在2025年上半年加快了 步伐。这些事件的最终结果仍存在相当大的不确定性。"公司补充道："很有可能会对我们大多数，甚至 是所有运营业务，以及我们持有的股票投资产生不利影响，从而显著影响我们的未来业绩。"财报显 示， 伯克希尔已连续第11个季度净卖出股票。此外，尽管公司股价从历史高点回落超过10%，但伯克 希尔在2025年上半年并未回购任何股票。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the giant panda "Yuko" at Chongqing Zoo not being on display due to health concerns related to extreme high temperatures [1] - The zoo management confirmed that "Yuko" experienced heat stress but is currently recovering and will not be exhibited temporarily [1] - To protect the animals from high temperatures, the zoo will adjust outdoor exhibition schedules for some giant pandas and other animals based on temperature changes [1]

Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000[1][11]. - The unemployment rate in July 2025 was 4.2%, matching expectations but up from the previous 4.1%[1][14]. - Average hourly earnings rose by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% and revised from a previous increase of 3.7%[1][14]. Data Revision Insights - The June non-farm payrolls were revised down by a total of 258,000, with significant downward adjustments in government, leisure, and construction sectors, accounting for 90,000 of the total revision[2][12]. - The downward revision reflects the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, indicating a decline in the accuracy of the "birth-death model" used for employment predictions[2][5]. Sector Performance - In July, the financial activities, education, and healthcare sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing stability in service sector demand[3][27]. - The goods-producing sector continued to show negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating weak production intentions among businesses[3][28]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in June, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics[4][35]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 221,000 in July, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.2%[4][35]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts, with market predictions indicating three rate cuts in 2025, starting in September with an 83.4% probability[5][26]. - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with the second quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, but core GDP growth showing signs of decline[5][23].

魔术师幻想操控"关税帽子"，终遭魔咒反噬。帽子沉重落下，砸在美国民众脚边——六月通胀意外飙升，创数月最大涨幅，灼 痛日常生活。这场损人害己的戏法，终以狼狈收场。当虚假魔棒失灵，山姆大叔还剩什么真实力量？ （文章来源：中国新闻网） 国际社会早已洞穿"魔术"真相。各国看清其极限施压是虚张声势，所谓经贸外交实为赤裸裸的讹诈。"不可预判"的美国，其"不 可信任"的烙印深植人心，昔日山姆大叔挥舞魔棒号令天下的幻象，如今只剩国际信誉加速崩塌的漫天烟尘。 近日，美国政府再挥"魔术棒"，向20多国及欧盟发出8月1日加征关税的"最后通牒"，胁迫各国戴上"关税帽子"。自四月"对等关 税"开锣，这场关税"魔术秀"充满矛盾与荒诞，主演者的反复无常已成唯一"定式"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest U.S. non-farm payroll report for July fell significantly short of expectations, leading investors to reassess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, resulting in a surge of safe-haven investments and a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1][3][4]. Group 1: Employment Data and Economic Impact - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 jobs in July, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000 [4]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a deteriorating labor market [4]. - Revisions to previous months' employment data showed a significant downward adjustment, with June's job additions revised down to 14,000 from 147,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000 [4]. Group 2: Treasury Yield Movements - Following the weak employment data, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 25 basis points to 3.698%, marking the largest single-day drop since August 2, 2024 [1]. - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 14 basis points to 4.236%, while the 30-year yield dropped by 8 basis points to 4.837% [1]. - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries widened by 9 basis points to 54 basis points [1]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has raised speculation about potential changes in the Fed's leadership and policy direction [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the weak labor market data opens the door for a possible 50 basis point rate cut in September, similar to the previous year's meeting [4]. - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in its last meeting, but some members expressed a preference for a rate cut [4]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The bond market experienced significant volatility, erasing all gains made in July within a single day [3]. - Concerns over the U.S. budget deficit are beginning to affect long-term Treasury yields, despite the traditional safe-haven status of U.S. bonds [6]. - The U.S. Treasury Department has significantly raised its borrowing expectations for the third quarter to $1.01 trillion, nearly doubling previous estimates [6].