Core Insights - The CF40 macro policy report for Q4 2025 emphasizes the importance of counter-cyclical policies in 2026, particularly focusing on fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Recovery Indicators - In 2025, China's macroeconomic indicators showed signs of early recovery, including improvements in the stock market, RMB exchange rate, social financing growth, and corporate deposits [1] - Corporate profits have halted their downward trend, and overall consumption and labor market conditions remained stable [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Positive Changes - The positive changes in the economy are attributed to three main factors: support from counter-cyclical policies, successful management of the tariff war initiated by the U.S., and prior years' price adjustments that provided support for market rebounds [1] Group 3: Key Policy Recommendations for 2026 - The report highlights that the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies will be crucial in 2026, with monetary policy being the primary focus to stimulate private investment and housing purchases [1] - Recommendations include clearer inflation expectations management and significant reductions in policy interest rates to encourage economic recovery [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise in U.S. Treasury yields during Asian afternoon trading, reflecting market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in its upcoming decision on Wednesday [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its key policy rate by 75 basis points in 2025, with a hold on rates at least until early 2026 [1] - This decision aligns with market expectations and the observed health of the U.S. economic cycle, despite potential discontent from the White House [1] Group 2: Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.220% [1] - Conversely, the 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.2 basis points to 3.594% [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of targeted operations to effectively counter seasonal liquidity pressures, maintaining a reasonable level of liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival [1] - On January 26, the PBOC conducted a 150.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, despite a net withdrawal of 207.8 billion yuan in the open market on the same day [1] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing during the week of January 26-30 reached 1.181 trillion yuan, alongside MLF maturities, resulting in a liquidity withdrawal pressure exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The PBOC has optimized structural monetary policy tools by lowering interest rates on loans for agriculture and small enterprises, as well as for technological innovation [3] - PBOC officials indicated that there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates this year, although the urgency for a reserve requirement cut before the Spring Festival has decreased [3] - Market analysts expect that the PBOC may implement 1 to 2 reserve requirement cuts and potentially 2 interest rate cuts in 2026, with the timing for policy rate reductions anticipated in the second quarter [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation continued while the increase in global trade uncertainty added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the end - of - month policy signals [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; PPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.90% (+1.83%) [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.05, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 (-0.44%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.9483, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.002 (-0.02%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.54, with a month - on - month increase of 0.05 (+3.49%); DR007 was 1.57, with a month - on - month increase of 0.08 (+5.38%); R007 was 1.68, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (+0.08%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (+0.08%) [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures (unit: yuan), the change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures (unit: %), the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures (unit: 100 million yuan), the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures (unit: %), the net position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures (top 20) (unit: %), the long - short position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures (top 20) (unit: none), the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds (unit: %), and the issuance of treasury bonds (unit: 100 million yuan) [11][14][18][21] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Figures include the Shibor interest rate trend (unit: %), the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) (unit: %), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase (unit: number of transactions, 100 million yuan), the issuance of local bonds (unit: 100 million yuan), the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures (unit: yuan), and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T) [28][30][31] IV. Spread Overview - Figures include the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [36][37][40] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures (unit: %), the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate (unit: %), the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract (unit: yuan), and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract (unit: yuan) [39][42][47] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures (unit: %), the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate (unit: %), the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract (unit: yuan), and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract (unit: yuan) [48][50][51] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures (unit: %), the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate (unit: %), the three - year basis trend of the T main contract (unit: yuan), and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract (unit: yuan) [52][53][54] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures (unit: %), the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate (unit: %), the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract (unit: yuan), and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract (unit: yuan) [58][60][61]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is in the early stages of recovery in 2025, with 2026 being a crucial year for sustaining this recovery through effective counter-cyclical policies, particularly in monetary policy [2][3]. Economic Indicators - In 2025, various financial indicators such as the stock market, RMB exchange rate, social financing growth, and corporate deposits showed significant improvement, indicating early signs of economic recovery [3]. - Corporate profits have halted a multi-year decline, and overall consumption and labor market conditions are stable [3]. Factors Driving Recovery - The recovery is primarily driven by three factors: 1. Support from counter-cyclical policies, especially increased government borrowing and spending [3]. 2. Successful navigation of the tariff war initiated by the U.S., which helped maintain export momentum [3]. 3. Price adjustments over previous years have provided support for market rebounds [3]. Weaknesses in Recovery - The foundation of the economic recovery is fragile, heavily reliant on fiscal borrowing and external demand, with insufficient internal growth drivers [3]. - Weak investment willingness from private enterprises and low consumer confidence in housing and spending are significant concerns [3]. Private Investment Concerns - From 2010 to 2021, the average return on assets for listed companies was 6.7%, while the average yield on 10-year government bonds was 3.4%, resulting in a consistent spread of 3.3% [4]. - However, from 2022 to 2025, the average return on assets dropped to 2.7%, and the yield on government bonds fell to 2.4%, narrowing the spread to only 0.3%, which negatively impacts private investment enthusiasm [4]. - The average growth rate of private fixed asset investment fell from 14.4% (2010-2021) to -1.2% (2022-2025) [4]. Housing Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the cost of buying a home has become less favorable compared to renting, with mortgage rates averaging 3.9% and second-hand home price growth at -4.8% from 2022 to 2025, leading to a buying cost of 8.7% [5]. - This unfavorable comparison has exerted downward pressure on housing prices [5]. Impact of Interest Rates - Interest rates significantly influence housing prices, with even minor reductions in rates having substantial effects on price increases [6]. - The decline in private investment has weakened overall spending growth, leading to slower income growth for residents, which adversely affects consumption [6]. Policy Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining necessary government borrowing and spending while emphasizing the importance of loose monetary policy in expanding domestic demand [7]. - Monetary policy should aim to improve expectations and optimize the budget constraints and incentives for both corporate investment and consumer spending [7]. - Achieving these changes requires a decisive stance from the central bank on inflation targets and a significant reduction in policy interest rates [7].

来源：金十 一位新的领跑者已经出现在美联储主席的角逐中，而他的当选可能从根本上改变该央行的政策制定方 式。预测市场Polymarket目前将贝莱德的里克·瑞德（Rick Rieder）稳固地置于领先地位。此举若成真， 将意味着在美联储面临巨大政治压力和高度审视的时刻， 市场经验丰富的老将、而非学术经济学家将 执掌利率决策之舵。他的崛起不仅仅是一则人事新闻；这可能是货币政策的一个潜在转折点。 瑞德获胜的几率已从本月中旬的仅6%飙升至如今的超过60%，而特朗普在最近达沃斯世界经济论坛的 采访中称他"令人印象深刻"。特朗普表示："我会说我们已缩小到三个人选，其实是两个。我大概可以 告诉你，在我看来，可能只剩下一个了。" 提名预计将于1月底前公布。 一位与白宫降息诉求相符的美联储人选 白宫已非常明确地表示，希望看到央行采取更激进的货币政策。特朗普政府正倚赖美联储帮助降低利率 并促进经济增长。 在剩余的四位候选人中，瑞德被认为拥有最丰富的市场经验，他担任贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官， 同时管理着约2.4万亿美元的债券策略。他很可能会被视为历史上最具市场洞察力的美联储主席。 尽管他未曾有过在美联储或政府的正式任职经验，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS's 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook report indicates that the seemingly robust growth of the U.S. economy is heavily reliant on the AI sector, and a potential AI bubble burst could raise the probability of a recession to 50% [1] Economic Growth and Risks - The foundation of U.S. economic growth is extremely narrow, with AI-related equipment investment increasing by approximately 17% over the past four quarters, while non-AI equipment investment has declined by about 1% [3] - Non-residential construction investment has contracted for six consecutive quarters, and residential investment has decreased in four out of the last five quarters [3] - Without the contribution from AI, the U.S. economy is essentially stagnating [3] - Consumer spending shows a K-shaped divergence, with high-income groups benefiting from AI-driven stock market wealth effects, while middle and low-income groups face erosion of purchasing power due to inflation and tariffs [3] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market's weakness is more pronounced than surface data suggests, with non-farm employment declining by an average of 41,000 per month in the last four months of 2025 when excluding healthcare and social assistance sectors [3] - The broader U-6 unemployment rate has risen to 8.43%, significantly above pre-pandemic levels [3] - There are indications that current employment data may overestimate job growth by about 60,000 per month, suggesting that labor market weakness poses a risk to the economy [3] Monetary Policy Insights - UBS believes that the market has mispriced the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with current expectations suggesting a delay until June [4] - Factors such as actual labor market weakness and potential soft signals from the February non-farm report indicate a higher necessity for rate cuts before June than the market anticipates [4] - UBS forecasts two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate target range down to 3.00%-3.25% [4] Market Divergence - There is a clear divide among market participants regarding UBS's outlook, with optimistic views suggesting a 2.7% GDP growth in 2026 and a 36% year-on-year increase in AI-related capital expenditures [5] - Some institutions agree with UBS's assessment of economic fragility, highlighting the risks associated with over-reliance on AI and the hidden weakness in the labor market [5] Tariff Policy Implications - The current weighted average tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 13.2%, equivalent to a tax burden of 1.1% of GDP, which is gradually being passed on to consumers and pushing core PCE inflation higher [6] - Inflation is expected to peak in the summer of 2026 and remain around 3% in the long term, which limits the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates [6] - Fiscal policy may provide short-term support, but the impact of tax rebates in Q2 2026 is expected to diminish quickly [6] - Key variables influencing the U.S. economic trajectory and Federal Reserve policy include the conversion of AI investment into productivity gains, the visibility of labor market weakness, the extent of tariff-induced inflation, and the Fed's balancing act between inflation and employment goals [6]

大摩闭门会：2026强势开局，然后呢？260123_导读 2026年01月25日 15:43 大摩闭门会：2026强势开局，然后呢？260123_导读 2026年01月25日 15:43 关键词 CSI300 恒生指数 盈利增速 市盈率 夏普比率 摩根士丹利 新兴市场 标普500 净资产收益率 ROE产业升级 人工智能 科技创新 财政政策 货币政策 房地产市场 新开工面积 房价 MSCI中国 人民币汇率 关键词 CSI300 恒生指数 盈利增速 市盈率 夏普比率 摩根士丹利 新兴市场 标普500 净资产收益率 ROE产业升级 人工智能 科技创新 财政政策 货币政策 房地产市场 新开工面积 房价 MSCI中国 人民币汇率 全文摘要 2026年初，中国股市展现强劲回升势头，背后推动力量包括企业盈利改善、科技创新加速以及政策面的支持。尽 管全球环境充满不确定性，摩根斯坦利仍对MSCI中国指数及其他新兴市场持乐观态度，预计2024年中后市场开始 反弹，强调了中国股市在风险调整后收益上的相对吸引力。对话还预测了亚洲主要股市的未来目标点位，并分析 了影响中国股市的七大关键因素，包括盈利预测、行业展望、宏观经济环境、房地产 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, and the T2603 contract decreased by 0.01% with an increase in open interest. The IRRs of CTD bonds corresponding to major Treasury bond futures contracts were at low levels, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally increased, and the yields of key - term Treasury bonds also showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped by 0.87bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 40.57bp. Overseas, the 10Y Treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan all declined [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield dropped to 1.816%. The central bank conducted a net reverse - repurchase withdrawal of 7.8 billion yuan. Shibor short - term varieties mostly increased, and the money market remained relatively stable. The US GDP in Q3 2025 had a final annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, higher than the initial value. The Japanese bonds stabilized, and the US bond yields rose first and then fell. The 2025 GDP growth target of 5% was achieved as scheduled, but there were slowdowns in some economic data. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank announced relevant policies, and the Treasury bond futures prices stabilized [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 102.392, 102.416, 105.850, 105.895, 108.180, 108.180, 112.51, and 112.68 respectively. The price changes were - 0.026, - 0.034, - 0.030, - 0.005, - 0.015, - 0.005, 0.210, and 0.210, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.03%, - 0.03%, - 0.03%, 0.00%, - 0.01%, 0.00%, 0.19%, and 0.19% [2]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interests of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 67591, 7715, 146300, 32282, 246340, 29448, 141712, and 37434 respectively. The trading volumes were 29013, 2055, 47329, 6291, 59708, 7785, 72096, and 7627 respectively. The changes in open interest were - 1505, 711, - 905, 1370, - 1394, 1879, 1223, and 838 respectively [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.024, - 0.045, 0.000, and - 0.170, with previous values of - 0.032, - 0.020, 0.010, and - 0.170 respectively [2]. - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRRs of CTD bonds corresponding to major contracts were 1.329, 1.4849, 1.3355, 1.5361, 1.3663, 1.4884, 1.3571, and 1.3439 respectively, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR7 days, DR001, DR007, GC001, GC007, FR001, and FR007 had yesterday's values of 1.4200, 1.5430, 1.4898, 1.6245, 1.4210, 1.6160, 1.51, and 1.64 respectively, with an increase of 2.4bp, 5.2bp, 2.44bp, 8.85bp, 4.6bp, 3.5bp, 1bp, and 9bp respectively compared to the previous day [2]. - **Yields of Chinese Key - term Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds were 1.29, 1.29, 1.40, 1.60, 1.70, 1.83, 2.27, and 2.27 respectively, with changes of - 0.01bp, 1.42bp, 0.88bp, 0.08bp, 0.28bp, - 0.87bp, - 0.5bp, and - 1.9bp respectively. The yield spreads of 10 - 2, 10 - 5, 5 - 2, and 30 - 10 were 40.57bp, 29.55bp, 11.02bp, and 44.40bp respectively [2]. Overseas Market - **Yields of Overseas Key - term Treasury Bonds**: The yields of US 2Y, US 5Y, US 10Y, US 30Y, German 2Y, German 10Y, Japanese 2Y, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bonds were 3.56, 3.82, 4.22, 4.80, 2.110, 2.940, 1.277, and 2.236 respectively, with changes of - 4.0bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.0bp, 1.5bp, and - 1.7bp respectively. The internal - external yield spreads were - 215.9bp, - 222.4bp, - 239.5bp, - 253.1bp, - 70.9bp, - 111.5bp, 12.4bp, and - 41.1bp respectively [2]. Macro News and Information - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 26, the central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal was 7.8 billion yuan [3]. - **Economic Data**: The US GDP in Q3 2025 had a final annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, higher than the initial value. China's 2025 GDP growth target of 5% was achieved as scheduled. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down to 0.9%, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, mainly dragged down by real estate development investment [3]. - **Policy Announcements**: The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit and expenditure volume would remain at a necessary level. The central bank pointed out that in 2026, it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with a certain space for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and announced a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools [3]. - **Other News**: Policies to expand inbound consumption, start the construction of national digital trade demonstration zones, and optimize the implementation of consumer goods replacement will be introduced. The bond connect company expanded its service scope to support overseas investors' cross - border repurchase and offshore RMB bond repurchase business. The US threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports if Canada reached a new trade agreement with China [3].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 钢材早报：驱动不强，期钢延续窄幅震荡 市场信息： 1、 央行行长潘功胜表示，2026年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。今年 降准降息还有一定的空间。 2、 中国经济2025年"成绩单"出炉。2025年全年，我国GDP同比增长5.0%，达到140.19万亿元；规模以上工业增加值增长 5.9%，增速较上年加快 0.1 个百分 点；社会消费品零售总额规模增长3.7%，增速较上年加快0.2个百分点；固定资产投资下降3.8%，其中房地产开发投资下降17.2%。2025 年末全国人口 140489万人，全年出生人口792万人，死亡人口1131万人，人口总量同比减少339万人。 3、 国家统计局数据显示，2025 年，中国粗钢产量96081 万吨，同比下降4.4%；生铁产量 83604万吨，同比下降3.0%；钢材产量144612万吨，同比增长 3.1%。 4、 海关总署数据显示，2025年我国累计出口钢材11901.9万吨，同比增长7.5%，创历史新高。 5、 1 月 26 日，全国主港铁 ...