文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强 大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投 资有风险，盈亏自负。 从黄金4小时来看，黄金周五冲高回落，日线收十字星。虽此前有小阳线，但反弹乏力且无持续性，未形成有 效突破，显示自3452高点以来的调整未结束，日内仍有下行空间。当前呈阴跌态势，不宜等大幅反弹后做 空，反弹过大会减弱下跌动能。周五亚市早盘金价续跌逼近3280支撑位，该区域支撑密集，直接追空风险 大。综上所述，下周黄金翁富豪建议维持反弹做空策略：反弹至3297-3302区间做空，止损3310，目标3290- 3270。 本周美联储货币政策动向成为市场焦点，多位官员的公开表态显示其内部在政策路径上存在显著分歧，7月降 息可能性显著增加。最新研究报告指出，理事沃勒和鲍曼在特定条件下支持7月降息，而鹰派代表哈克则对年 内降息持审慎立场。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利最新表态：预计美联储年内实施两次降息，首次降息窗 口或在9月开启；同时警示关税对通胀的滞后效应，强调政策制定需保持灵活性。年内关税言论持续推升通胀 ...

贝森特表示："主席人选有可能在明年1月获得任命，这意味着提名可能在10月或11月进行。"鲍威尔作 为美联储理事的任期将持续到2028年。 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普表示，他将选择一位愿意降息的人接替杰罗姆.鲍威尔担任美联储主席，这一条 件将严重损害美联储的独立性。 特朗普周五表示："如果我认为某人会维持利率不变或者怎样，我就不会选他。我会选那些想要降低利 率的人。这样的人有很多。" 特朗普因美联储决定维持利率不变而加大了对鲍威尔的批评力度。特朗普表示："如果他想辞职，我很 乐意。"他称这位央行行长不支持降息，是"一头顽固的骡子，一个愚蠢的人"。 特朗普对美联储施加压力，要求其降息，并多次抨击鲍威尔，认为美联储的政策导致政府借贷成本过 高。 鲍威尔的主席任期将持续到明年5月。特朗普曾表示，他心中有三到四个人可以接替鲍威尔的职位，但 美国财政部长斯科特.贝森特淡化了特朗普提前提名下任美联储主席的猜测。 贝森特周五表示，特朗普可能提前在今年晚些时候宣布提名人选——考虑到理事会的下个空缺席位将在 明年1月出现——目的是让提名人担任主席职务。 美联储上周维持利率在4.25%-4.5%的区间不变，该利率自年初以来一直维持在这 ...

周五，美国总统特朗普再骂美联储主席鲍威尔。近日，由于美联储未在6月会议上降息，特朗普对鲍威 尔和美联储理事会的攻击频率多且言辞尖锐。 他在周五当天先是重复以前的观点，称如果鲍威尔降息，融资成本就会更加便宜。 几小时后他又表示，希望美联储主席鲍威尔辞职。"如果他想辞职，我会非常高兴。"他还称鲍威尔是一 个固执的骡子和一个愚蠢的人。 特朗普说，他将挑选一位希望降息的人，作为鲍威尔的继任者。"如果我认为某人会维持目前的利率水 平，或无所作为，我是不会任命他的。我会任命一个想要降息的人，这样的人很多。" 分析指出，特朗普提到的希望降息这一条件直接触及美联储的独立性核心。 贝森特淡化特朗普可能提前提名美联储主席的猜测 周五同日，美国财政部长贝森特淡化了有关特朗普可能提前提名下一任美联储主席的猜测。他指出，一 种可能的时间安排是今年10月或11月公布人选。在周五接受媒体采访时，当被问及特朗普是否可能任命 一位所谓的"影子美联储主席"时，贝森特表示："我认为现在没有人在真正讨论这个问题。" 贝森特指出，明年初美联储理事会将有两个职位空缺：库格勒（Adriana Kugler）的任期将在明年1月结 束，而鲍威尔的美联储主席任 ...

美国总统特朗普：我希望美联储主席鲍威尔辞职。 我将让某位"希望降息"的人来担任美联储主席。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump stated that if Powell lowers interest rates, financing costs will become cheaper [1] Group 1 - The potential for lower interest rates could lead to increased borrowing and investment opportunities for companies [1] - A decrease in financing costs may stimulate economic growth and consumer spending [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs [1][11] - The S&P 500 index is reported at 6178.3 points, up 0.59%, while the Nasdaq index is at 20294.93 points, up 0.64% [11] - The technology sector is leading the market recovery, with the S&P 500 index rising over 20% since its low on April 8 [11][12] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is facing increasing complexity, with the PCE inflation indicator exceeding expectations [2][6] - The PCE index for May shows a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, while the core PCE index rose by 2.68%, the highest since February 2025 [7][8] - Economists predict that inflation may rise in the coming months as higher import tariffs are passed on to consumers [8] Group 3 - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that the White House is close to finalizing trade agreements with ten major trading partners [4][5] - The Trump administration aims to complete these trade negotiations before the Labor Day holiday on September 1 [5] - If agreements are not reached in time, Trump may issue letters to specify trade terms directly [4] Group 4 - Nike's stock surged by 14% after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, despite a 12% year-over-year revenue decline [13] - Nike's revenue for the quarter was $11.1 billion, exceeding market expectations of $10.72 billion [13] - The company indicated that the trend of declining annual sales is beginning to ease, suggesting the effectiveness of CEO Elliott Hill's strategic initiatives [13]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Neel Kashkari, suggests that there may be two interest rate cuts this year, with the first potentially occurring in September, while cautioning about the lagging effects of tariffs on inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Predictions - Kashkari has not adjusted his interest rate forecast for 2025 since December of last year [1] - He believes there is a possibility of two rate cuts this year, with the first likely in September [1] - Tariff Impact on Inflation - There is currently insufficient evidence to show that tariffs have impacted prices [1] - Kashkari expresses concern that there may still be a potential impact on inflation later this year due to tariffs [1]

Core Insights - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in May rose by 0.2%, slightly exceeding expectations, indicating persistent price pressures [1][5] - Consumer spending in the U.S. experienced its largest decline since the beginning of the year, reflecting growing uncertainty in the economic outlook due to government policies [1][8] Inflation Indicators - The year-on-year core PCE price index for May was 2.68%, above the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.5% [3] - The overall PCE price index for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, matching expectations but up from 2.1% previously [4] - SuperCore PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased slightly to 3.12% year-on-year from 3.07% [5] Consumer Spending and Income - Personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.3% in May, with a notable 6% drop in automobile purchases, reversing previous gains [11] - Personal income also declined, marking the largest drop since 2021, primarily due to reduced government transfer payments [12] - The savings rate decreased significantly to 4.5% of disposable income [14] Economic Outlook - Many economists anticipate a rise in inflation in the coming months as higher import tariffs are passed on to consumers [9] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated potential support for interest rate cuts if inflation remains moderate, with discussions around a possible cut as early as the next policy meeting [16] Market Reaction - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term decline, dropping 0.16% to 97.12 [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, under the game of low inventory and weak consumption and with the weakening of the US dollar index, the aluminum price will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 21,000 integer mark above [53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The overall output of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates little; the US dollar index weakens; the exchange inventory continues to decline; geopolitical risks ease [8][9][13]. - **Bearish factors**: There is an expectation of weakening demand; the spot premium declines [8]. 3.2 Data Analysis - **Supply**: China's electrolytic aluminum output in May 2025 was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The current national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is about 44.15 million tons, with an operating rate of 97.7%, and subsequent increments are limited [19]. - **Aluminum cost**: China's alumina output in May 2025 was 7.488 million tons. Although there were some production cuts in some areas, the alumina output is expected to continue to rise due to subsequent restarts and new capacity releases [22]. - **Aluminum product output**: China's aluminum product output in May 2025 was 5.762 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline and lower than the same period last year, affected by policies and the off - season [25]. - **Aluminum downstream consumption**: Affected by the high aluminum price and the deepening of the off - season, the average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 59.8%. The real estate market is still in the bottom - seeking stage, while the new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly, and the overall automobile export growth rate has increased significantly in May [28][32][36]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and foreign exchange inventories, as well as the social inventory of aluminum ingots, are declining. As of June 26, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 460,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday [40][46]. - **Aluminum water conversion rate**: Under the guidance of the dual - carbon policy, the proportion of aluminum water has reached a historical high, changing the inventory structure of the aluminum industry [43]. - **Premium**: On June 26, the average premium of Shanghai Wuma Aluminum decreased, and the LME aluminum premium changed to a discount [50].

2025.06.27 周五 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 最好不持仓过周，押注对了还好，但一旦押注失误，别想着一根细细的"止损线"能帮你。冷知识，跳空出现之后，不论是设置的止损或是止盈， 都大概率不会被触发。 故而今天还是看一下黄金的本身，有没有自救的能力吧。说白了，你至少让我进场啊！ 六月的倒数第二个交易日，PCE数据将公布；六月的最后一个交易日在下周一，收月线也就算了，更何况还有周四的非农，是会留给下周一些风 风雨雨的。【没错，鉴于老美假期，所以数据提前公布】 刚说完黑天鹅，它就飞来了，我是什么召唤师的角色吗？ 基本面上一天不如一天，改口的反转来的太多，不怎么想去追踪了，就记得两件事。①老美需要＄，不管是债务亦或者经济发展；②建国以降息 为引子，弱化关税影响，试图模糊掉这些。 别问，前者跟现在开辟的任何战场都有关。周末各位也要提防一下，市场休市，可ZZ没有休息一说，一个人八百个心眼子，还在斗的激烈。 催催催，再怎么被催促，美联储都得考虑一下，如果连续的通胀不强或者就业市场疲软，才能点击降息的按钮。这次可能是个开始，那PCE数据 不能一开始就扇降息一巴掌吧。 所以这次呢，本来预期就比较高，如果公 ...