近日，美联储理事沃勒就货币政策走向发表重要观点，预计联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将在9月降息25个基 点，且未来3 - 6个月还将继续推进降息进程，这一表态为市场对美联储货币政策的预期提供了关键指引。 沃勒指出，当前支持美联储降息的依据相较于7月份更为充分和强烈。近期，劳动力市场状况成为美联储决策的重 要考量因素。沃勒强调，供给侧的变化并非是出现不佳就业数据的原因，同时他认为关注就业数据的质量以及收 集方式十分必要。目前，劳动力市场面临的下行风险显著加重，这一态势使得美联储在货币政策调整上需更加谨 慎且灵活。 对于即将到来的下一份非农就业报告，沃勒表示其可能会改变自己对于9月潜在降息幅度的看法。不过，就现阶段 情况而言，他认为9月份降息幅度可能无需超过25个基点。这一观点既体现了美联储对经济数据的敏感性，也显示 出其在货币政策调整上的稳健态度，避免因过度降息引发市场波动或其他潜在风险。 在货币政策整体态势方面，沃勒称美联储货币政策具有"适度的限制性"。这意味着当前货币政策既在一定程度上 对经济活动起到约束作用，以防止经济过热和通胀失控，又未过度紧缩而阻碍经济的正常增长。这种"适度限制 性"的货币政策定位，旨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in H1 2025, driven by rising gold prices, with a significant year-on-year increase in both revenue and net profit [1][5]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 35.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.695 billion yuan, up 54.64% year-on-year [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 20.208 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.00%. The net profit for Q2 was 1.656 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 72.57% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 59.50% [1]. Production and Sales - The company produced 9.13 tons of mined gold and 19.32 tons of refined gold in H1 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 2.35% and 1.47%, respectively. Copper production was 38,100 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.63% for mined copper and an increase of 13.09% for refined copper [2]. - Sales figures included 8.87 tons of mined gold and 18.10 tons of refined gold, with year-on-year increases of 5.97% and a slight decrease of 0.49%, respectively. Mined copper sales were 40,000 tons, down 7.62%, while refined copper sales were 19,060 tons, up 14.75% [2]. Exploration and Incident Impact - The company has intensified exploration efforts, achieving an increase in gold reserves of 13.82 tons in H1 2025, strengthening its resource base [3]. - An accident occurred at the company's subsidiary in Inner Mongolia on July 23, 2025, affecting production. The impact on H2 2025 performance is uncertain and will depend on the timeline for resuming operations [3]. Market Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on gold prices, anticipating that potential interest rate cuts could drive down real interest rates, benefiting gold [4]. - The Federal Reserve's signals for potential rate cuts are seen as favorable for gold, with expectations of continued upward trends in gold prices unless economic conditions change significantly [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards by 11.79%, 21.77%, and 28.18%, respectively, resulting in projected profits of 5.076 billion yuan, 7.022 billion yuan, and 8.383 billion yuan [5]. - The target price has been adjusted to 17.97 yuan, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.11 for 2025, based on anticipated production increases from new mining projects [5].

周四(8月28日)亚洲时段，白银价格从38.08美元的低点反弹后回升，银价震荡上涨，欧市盘中，现货白 银行情延续上行，现报38.86美元/盎司，最高触及38.93美元/盎司，最低下探38.52美元/盎司。银价正逼 近38.90美元/盎司水平。今晚关注即将发布的美国至8月23日当周初请失业金人数。 【要闻聚焦】 纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰 威廉姆斯于周三强调了央行独立性的重要性。此前，美国总统特朗普正试 图对货币政策施加管控。 在接受采访时，这位颇具影响力的政策制定者未直接评论特朗普拟解雇美联储理事莉萨 库克的相关举 措，但明确指出了美联储在维护经济稳定方面所发挥的重要经济作用。 "就我个人而言，我曾与莉萨 库克共事——她目前是美联储理事会成员，在工作中始终秉持诚信，致力 于实现美联储的使命，"威廉姆斯表示，"我认为美联储作为央行，其独立性至关重要……历史经验表 明，具备独立性的央行能够实现低通胀，维护经济与金融稳定。" 在特朗普第二任期的第一年，他多次打破传统界限——长期以来，这一界限一直存在于准政府机构属性 的美联储与白宫、国会山的影响力之间。 特朗普曾指责美联储主席鲍威尔及其同僚未采取降息措施。此前，他还曾 ...

Group 1 - The PCE index is considered a more comprehensive measure of economic inflation compared to the CPI, as it includes non-profit institution consumption and dynamically adjusts the weight of goods to reflect substitution effects [2] - The upcoming data will reveal the true extent of tariff cost transmission, with the full chain of cost impact from ports to retail having been completed since spring [2] - Despite signals of a policy shift from the Federal Reserve, high inflation may still limit the space for interest rate cuts, with economists believing that unless the upcoming August CPI shows a significant increase, the Fed's plans for a rate cut in September will remain unchanged [2] Group 2 - Consumer spending is expected to grow by 0.5% month-on-month in July, driven primarily by a surge in new car sales, with annualized sales reaching 16.4 million vehicles [3] - The growth in personal consumption expenditures is projected to slow down to 1.3% in the third quarter and further to 1.1% in the fourth quarter, influenced by rising prices and the job market [3] - The slowdown in consumer spending, a core driver of the U.S. economy, will directly constrain overall economic performance, leading to a more complex adjustment in the coming months due to inflation pressures and expectations of policy easing [3]

转自：金十数据 关税推升的通胀正逐步渗透美国经济，与此同时，美国经济增长势头也有所减弱。 美联储青睐的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出（PCE）指数将在北京时间周五晚8:30发布，预计7月环 比上涨0.3%，与上月持平。若该预测兑现，PCE通胀同比增速将从2.8%升至2.9%，为今年2月以来的最 高水平，同时也将是连续第三个月上升。部分经济学家甚至预测，同比增速可能跃升至3%，这将是 2024年3月以来的最高值。 "自今年春季起，随着关税成本从港口逐步传导至仓库，再到收银台，通胀已开始抬头。"美国运通银行 （Comerica Bank）首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯（Bill Adams）在接受采访时表示。 本月早些时候发布的7月生产者价格（PPI）数据显示，服务业通胀出现上升。这一现象令人意外，因为 服务业原本不受关税影响（关税仅针对进口商品）。 但分析师认为，7月消费支出的增长得益于新车销量激增，后续消费支出增速将有所放缓。 "消费者仍在消费，但变得更加挑剔。"富国银行（Wells Fargo）高级经济学家萨姆·布拉德（Sam Bullard）表示。 蒙特利尔银行资本市场部（BMO Capital Markets） ...

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Growth - Inflation driven by tariffs is gradually permeating the U.S. economy, while economic growth momentum is weakening [1] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month in July, leading to a year-on-year increase from 2.8% to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1] - Some economists predict that the year-on-year growth rate may jump to 3%, the highest since March 2024 [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Economic Indicators - The upcoming PCE report is expected to show a 0.5% month-on-month increase in consumer spending for July, up from 0.3% in the previous month [3] - Analysts believe that the growth in consumer spending is driven by a surge in new car sales, but future growth rates are expected to slow down [3] - The second quarter saw a 1.6% increase in personal consumption expenditures, but forecasts suggest a slowdown to 1.3% in the third quarter and further to 1.1% in the fourth quarter due to rising prices and a slowing job market [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated a significant reduction in concerns about inflation, focusing more on the job market, which suggests a potential for rate cuts in September [1] - High inflation reports may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates further later this year [2] - The upcoming August CPI inflation data will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding rate cuts in mid-September [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral situation with a spot price of 20730 and a basis of - 20, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory situation is neutral as the上期所 aluminum inventory decreased by 8047 tons to 124605 tons last week. The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing. In the long - term, carbon neutrality will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and is bullish for aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bulls and bears are intertwined, leading to an oscillating aluminum price [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of aluminum has multiple aspects: fundamental analysis is neutral; basis analysis is neutral; inventory analysis is neutral; market trend analysis is bullish; main position analysis is bullish; and the expected price movement is oscillating due to mixed factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多 factors**: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; and there is a possibility of interest rate cuts [3]. - **利空 factors**: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot prices**: In Shanghai, the price was 70770 with a decline of 375; in Nanchu, it was 70690 with a decline of 450; and the Yangtze River price was 70870 with a decline of 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai warehouse receipts increased by 699 to 70798 tons; LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74750 tons; SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 29728 tons to 136300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows different situations. In 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2019, it was - 68.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2021, it was - 14.2 million tons; in 2022, it was - 29.98 million tons; in 2023, it was - 4.31 million tons; and in 2024, it was 15 million tons [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar (Rolled steel): Oscillation with a weak bias [2] - Glass: Oscillation with a weak bias [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: Oscillation with a strong bias [4] - Silver: Oscillation with a strong bias [4] - Pulp: Weak operation [5] - Logs: Range oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Wait - and - see [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Reverse spread [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend, with different products having different outlooks based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals, policy factors, and geopolitical situations. For example, the black industry is affected by production restrictions and demand trends; the financial market is influenced by policies and market sentiment; precious metals are driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data; and agricultural products are affected by weather, planting area, and consumption demand [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The probability of an interest rate cut in September is high, supporting commodities. The expectation of domestic blast furnace production restrictions has been temporarily disproven, and the impact on demand is small. Global iron ore shipments have decreased slightly, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coal and coke**: Coal supply accidents are frequent, and production reduction expectations may cause supply fluctuations. Coal mine inventories are at a low level, and downstream demand is high. Short - term price adjustments are limited, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the market sentiment is released [2]. - **Rolled steel (Rebar)**: The production restriction policy in Tangshan is clear, but the reduction is less than expected. Overall demand is difficult to show a counter - seasonal performance, and there will be a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Spot demand for rebar is weak, and futures prices are looking for support after a significant adjustment [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly in the short term. The key for the 01 contract is the cold - repair path. The long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk preference and long - position holdings. The release of relevant policies and international trade exchanges may have an impact on the market [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended that long - position holders hold lightly [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold - buying behavior support the prices of gold and silver. Although some factors may cause short - term fluctuations, the upward - driving logic has not completely reversed [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices is weak, and the paper - making industry has low profitability and high inventory pressure. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and prices are expected to decline [5]. - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs is relatively stable, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost support is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: The demand for soybean oil is promising due to strong export sales and relevant policies. The production and inventory of palm oil are in a certain state, and the demand growth provides long - term support. The inventory of domestic oils shows different trends, and prices are expected to oscillate after a previous sharp rise [5]. Oilseeds and Meals - **Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 1, and soybean No. 2**: The US soybean planting area has been significantly reduced, but the single - yield is expected to increase. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with weather and import volume being key factors [5]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. The demand is restricted by high temperatures, and prices are expected to oscillate with a weak bias in the future [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand is relatively stable. The inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term [10]. Polyester - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: These products are affected by factors such as the geopolitical situation, oil prices, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost. Different products have different outlooks, including oscillation, wait - and - see, and reverse spread [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual investment suggestions are given for different sectors: - For股指期货, it is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock index futures [15]. - For外汇 futures (US Dollar Index), the US dollar is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - For US stock index futures, it is suggested to buy on dips after short - term corrections as the upward trend of US stocks has not reversed [22]. - For treasury bond futures, it is in a recent oscillatory trend, and when going long, one needs to pay attention to the absolute price, funds, and market sentiment [24]. - For other sectors such as commodities, specific investment suggestions are provided for each commodity, including buying on dips, selling on rallies, and waiting and seeing [26][28][29] Core Views - The A - share market has a V - shaped reversal with trading volume exceeding 3 trillion, but market divergence is increasing, and marginal changes need attention [2][14]. - The US labor market shows resilience with lower - than - expected initial jobless claims, and the market risk preference remains high. The Federal Reserve officials are releasing signals of interest rate cuts, which has an impact on the US stock and foreign exchange markets [17][20][21]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to the complex influence of macro and fundamental factors; the price of soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as export sales, reserve sales, and Sino - US relations [5][25][26] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Chinese trade representative will visit the US. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released. The A - share market has a V - shaped reversal with trading volume exceeding 3 trillion, but market divergence is increasing [13][14]. - Investment suggestion: Evenly allocate long positions in various stock index futures [15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - There are disputes over the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. German Chancellor Merz says a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is unlikely. The US initial jobless claims last week were lower than expected [16][17]. - Investment suggestion: The US dollar is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US initial and continuing jobless claims last week were lower than expected. Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the September meeting [20][21]. - Investment suggestion: Buy on dips after short - term corrections as the upward trend of US stocks has not reversed [22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 4161 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1631 billion yuan. The stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened recently, and the bond market is expected to be in an oscillatory trend [23]. - Investment suggestion: It is in a recent oscillatory trend, and when going long, one needs to pay attention to the absolute price, funds, and market sentiment [24]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The export sales of US new - crop soybeans were better than expected. China will auction 164,000 tons of imported soybeans on August 29. The soybean meal futures price is weaker than the overseas market [25][26]. - Investment suggestion: Affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US relations, soybean meal is weaker than the overseas market. The focus later is on China's purchase of US soybeans [26]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US soybean shipments to China were 0 tons in the week ending August 21. The oil market continued to oscillate at a high level and had a slight correction [27]. - Investment suggestion: The oil market still lacks clear guidance. It is recommended to go long on dips considering India's replenishment demand and the unfavorable inventory accumulation data of Malaysian palm oil in August [28]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn consumption of starch sugar products increased slightly this week, while the corn starch consumption decreased. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the CS11 - C11 spread is under pressure [29]. - Investment suggestion: The corn - starch price difference has fallen to a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are opportunities to widen the spread driven by factors such as the regional price difference of raw materials [29]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises and the average inventory days of feed enterprises decreased. The spot market was cautious, while the futures rebounded. The short - term price decline rhythm may change [30][31][32]. - Investment suggestion: Short - term long positions entered earlier should be closed at an appropriate time. After the selling pressure is gradually realized, pay attention to whether there are new opportunities to go short on rallies [33]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 268,400 tons week - on - week. The supply - demand fundamentals of steel products still face pressure, but the industry policy has a positive impact on market sentiment [34][35]. - Investment suggestion: In the short term, a oscillatory approach should be adopted for steel prices [36]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie Indonesian coal has loosened, and the port coal price has fallen. The coal price is expected to be seasonally weak, but there is support below 650 yuan [37]. - Investment suggestion: The coal price is expected to be seasonally weak, but there is support below 650 yuan [37]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The number of sugar - carrying ships waiting at Brazilian ports increased, and the estimated sugar production in Brazil was lowered. The international sugar price is expected to oscillate, and the outlook for the fourth - quarter external market is optimistic. The domestic sugar price is affected by factors such as imports and warehouse receipts [38][40][41]. - Investment suggestion: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price has fallen rapidly recently. The 1 - month contract can wait for opportunities to go long on dips, with a target price of around 5500 yuan or after the September contract is delivered [41]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto adjusted its operation mode and executive committee. The iron ore price continued to oscillate, and the short - term supply - demand pressure was not large [42]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the actual trading volume after the price increase. The iron ore market is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to positive spread trading opportunities [43]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market increased. The downstream arrivals decreased, and the spot price was firm but lacked upward momentum. The new - season production is uncertain [43][44]. - Investment suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the weather in the production area and the results of on - the - spot investigations [44]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - KoBold Metals obtained seven lithium ore exploration licenses in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The short - term supply - demand balance is affected by factors such as imports and production resumption, and there is support at the bottom [45]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips and positive spread trading opportunities [46]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - JinkoSolar's semi - annual report shows high - volume shipments but losses. The polysilicon price is stable, and the market is in a game about whether the upstream price increase can be transmitted downstream. The September production is uncertain [47][48]. - Investment suggestion: The downside space of the futures price is more definite, and the upside space depends on factors such as component bidding prices and production cuts. Unilaterally, a bullish view on dips can be maintained, and for arbitrage, pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity at around - 2000 yuan/ton [49]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Silicon Industry's semi - annual report shows a loss. The production and inventory of industrial silicon are affected by the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang. The short - term price is expected to operate in the range of 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton [50][51]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the resumption of production progress of large factories in Xinjiang. The short - term price may operate in the range of 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to range - trading opportunities [51]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Yunnan Copper produced 779,400 tons of cathode copper in the first half of the year. Jiangxi Copper's semi - annual profit increased. The Snow Lake copper - gold mine in Canada resumed operation. The copper price is affected by macro and fundamental factors and is expected to oscillate at a high level [52][53][54]. - Investment suggestion: Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [56]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association focuses on illegal mining in the nickel industry. The nickel price is affected by factors such as raw material prices and supply - demand fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to have band - trading opportunities, and medium - term short - selling opportunities can be considered [57][58][59]. - Investment suggestion: Short - term band - trading opportunities can be paid attention to, and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered. The downside space depends on factors such as the decline of raw material prices and downstream restocking [59]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of liquefied petroleum gas in China increased, and the inventory situation was mixed. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [60][61]. - Investment suggestion: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [63]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price decreased on August 28. The carbon market trading volume has not increased significantly, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [64]. - Investment suggestion: The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased less than expected. The natural gas price has support at the current level, and the export demand is strong. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [66]. - Investment suggestion: The NYMEX natural gas price is expected to oscillate in the short term [67]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is stable. The market is affected by factors such as transportation and inventory [68][69]. - Investment suggestion: Be cautious when chasing high prices [69]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was mostly stable. The pulp market is in a weak fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate weakly [70][71]. - Investment suggestion: The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [71]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price decreased slightly. The market is affected by factors such as futures prices and downstream demand. It is expected to oscillate [72][73]. - Investment suggestion: The market is expected to oscillate [73]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly output of styrene decreased slightly. The port inventory is accumulating, and the supply pressure is large. The market is affected by factors such as policies and oil prices [74][75]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to internal and external policy variables [75]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreased, and the major manufacturers will maintain a minimum 20% production cut in September. The inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand contradiction is alleviated [76][78]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to whether new production capacity can be put into operation as scheduled in September. The absolute price follows the fluctuation of polyester raw materials [78]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased locally. The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved marginally, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the short term [79][80][81]. - Investment suggestion: The short - term unilateral price will oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to go long on dips in a rolling manner [82]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. The soda ash price is in a weak and stable oscillation. It is recommended to sell on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [83]. - Investment suggestion: Sell on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [83]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased slightly. The glass price was affected by the equity market. The supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved, and it is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations and focus on arbitrage [84][85]. - Investment suggestion: Be cautious in unilateral operations and focus on arbitrage. Pay attention to the spread - widening strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [85]. 2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The cargo and container throughput of major ports from January to July increased year - on - year. The spot freight rate is weak, and the supply pressure is high. The freight rate is expected to continue to decline [86][87]. - Investment suggestion: The 10 - contract has broken through the 1300 support, and the next test is the 1250 support level [87].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting on September 16-17, with expectations for further cuts in the next three to six months depending on forthcoming data [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Waller believes the potential inflation rate in the U.S. is nearing the Fed's long-term target of 2%, supporting an immediate rate cut due to stable long-term inflation expectations and increasing likelihood of labor market weakness [1] - Waller previously voted against maintaining the interest rate at the last FOMC meeting in late July, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Waller suggests that the Fed should "ignore" the impact of tariffs on inflation, anticipating that their effects are temporary [1]