Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is escalating the risk of spillover effects, particularly in the energy and agricultural sectors [1]. Group 1: Energy Market Impact - The Russian government has announced a ban on gasoline exports starting April 1, aimed at stabilizing prices amid the turmoil in the Middle East and prioritizing domestic supply [2][4]. - The ban will last until July 31, with the Russian Deputy Prime Minister indicating that the crisis has caused significant volatility in global oil and petroleum product markets [4]. - The conflict has severely disrupted shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to dramatic fluctuations in international oil prices [5]. - Approximately 40% of Russia's oil supply is reportedly affected by Ukraine's intensified attacks on its oil industry, which could have long-term implications for Russia's export capabilities [5]. Group 2: Agricultural Sector Risks - Economists warn that the current conflict has triggered one of the most severe shocks to global commodity flows in recent years, leading to soaring natural gas prices and tightening fertilizer supplies [6]. - The United Nations World Food Programme has highlighted that the poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are heavily reliant on fertilizer imports from the Gulf region, with shortages coinciding with the planting season [6]. - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical channel for global energy and fertilizer transport, handling about 20 million barrels of oil daily, which constitutes approximately 35% of global crude oil transport [7]. - The supply of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers is under direct threat, with around 30% of global urea trade already impacted by the conflict [7]. - Countries like Ethiopia, which depend on Gulf imports for over 90% of their nitrogen fertilizer, are facing severe shortages [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Russian government has announced a ban on gasoline exports starting April 1, aimed at stabilizing domestic prices amid turmoil in the energy market due to conflicts in the Middle East [1]. Group 1: Government Actions - The ban on gasoline exports will last until July 31, as directed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak [1]. - The decision follows a meeting of the Russian cabinet regarding the domestic oil product market situation [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The Middle East crisis has caused significant volatility in global oil and petroleum product markets, leading to sharp price fluctuations [1]. - Despite the turmoil, there remains a high demand for Russian energy resources in foreign markets, which is viewed as a positive factor [1]. Group 3: Domestic Supply and Production - Russia's crude oil processing volume is currently on par with last year, ensuring stable supply of petroleum products [1]. - The government has previously implemented temporary restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports to stabilize the domestic market [1]. Group 4: Future Outlook - President Putin expressed hope for a resolution to the Middle East conflict in the coming weeks, acknowledging that while the situation has led to excess profits for Russia as an energy exporter, this is not expected to last long [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Russian President Putin expressed hope for the quick resolution of the Middle East conflict during a meeting with business leaders, indicating that the current excess profits from energy exports due to the conflict will not last long [1][2] - Putin emphasized that the Russian government and related enterprises should not expect long-term "windfall profits" from the ongoing situation in the Middle East [1] - The Russian government's stance is aligned with a desire for the cessation of hostilities in the region, as indicated by spokesperson Peskov [2] Group 2 - The conflict in the Middle East has led to significant disruptions in global energy transportation, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in substantial fluctuations in international oil prices [2] - The military actions initiated by the US and Israel against Iran have escalated tensions, affecting various regional countries and contributing to the volatility in oil markets [2]

Summary of Conference Call on Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant reduction in financial attributes, with the marginal impact of Federal Reserve policies diminishing. Prices for gold and copper have entered a reasonable lower range [1][2][3]. Key Insights - **Copper Price Dynamics**: Copper prices are stable in the range of $11,000 to $12,000 per ton, with strong demand from downstream sectors. A shortage at the mining level supports supply rigidity [1][4]. - **Valuation Levels**: Leading companies in the sector are currently undervalued, with aluminum companies valued at less than 10 times earnings, copper companies around 12 times, and gold companies at approximately 14 times [1][4]. - **Lithium as a Preferred Commodity**: Lithium carbonate is highlighted as a top choice due to supply constraints from African mining policies, leading to a reduction of 100,000 to 150,000 tons, with inventory dropping below 100,000 tons [1][5]. - **Geopolitical Impact on Aluminum**: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has affected aluminum production, with the region accounting for about 10% of global capacity. High oil prices are raising production costs, providing a defensive attribute to the sector [1][6]. Investment Recommendations - **Core Stocks to Watch**: - Lithium: Yongxing Materials, Salt Lake Co. - Copper: Zijin Mining - Aluminum: China Hongqiao [1][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: - Focus on lithium if avoiding macroeconomic judgments, as the sector's stock prices are under pressure from negative feedback expectations regarding storage demand [5][6]. - If geopolitical tensions persist but do not escalate, consider investing in electrolytic aluminum due to supply risks [6]. - In a scenario of easing geopolitical tensions, prioritize investments in precious metals and copper, as current prices reflect pessimistic market expectations [6][7]. Risks and Considerations - **Potential Risks**: A shift in U.S. policy towards a "war promotes peace" strategy could lead to macroeconomic expectations fluctuating, potentially causing a final price drop in commodities [1][4]. - **Market Sentiment**: The current market sentiment is heavily influenced by fear, with discussions around interest rate hikes being more of a reaction than a likely outcome [2][3]. Additional Insights - **Long-term Value**: The narrative supporting copper and gold as long-term investment assets remains intact, with strategic metals gaining importance as supply chains shift from cost prioritization to security prioritization [2][3]. - **Performance Expectations**: The first quarter of 2026 is expected to show strong performance for the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by higher average prices despite recent adjustments [4][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting current market conditions, investment opportunities, and associated risks.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the supply - demand expectations for copper are improving, the stabilization and rebound of copper prices still require the support of a缓和 macro - sentiment. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper today is 93,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for the LME 3M copper is 12,000 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [2]. - The risk of the Middle East war escalating exists. The overseas aluminum supply threat remains large, and the low overseas inventory and strong spot are expected to continue. The domestic downstream start - up rate continues to rise, and the large import loss supports the domestic price. The aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short term. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum today is 24,500 - 25,200 yuan/ton; the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is 3,360 - 3,480 US dollars/ton [5]. - The short - term lead price is supported, but it is necessary to observe the resumption of production of secondary smelters and the sustainability of battery enterprise orders. There is a possibility of further decline in the lead price [8]. - The zinc price has formed a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the accumulation of zinc ingot social inventory and be vigilant against the risks caused by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and unexpected macro - policies [11]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the overseas LME tin is 45,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton [14]. - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to operate within the range [17]. - The lithium carbonate contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 140,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [20]. - For alumina, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to focus on domestic supply contraction policies, Guinean ore policies, and the US - Iran conflict [23]. - The stainless - steel price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,350 yuan/ton [26]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - Due to the attack on Iranian oil facilities and the strengthening of crude oil prices, the copper price broke through and declined. The LME 3M copper contract closed down 3.44% to 12,340 US dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 96,340 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 3,725 to 334,100 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.6 to 319,000 tons. The spot discount in the East China region narrowed to 90 yuan/ton, and the spot discount in the Guangdong region was 5 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to near 0 [1]. Strategy Viewpoint - The risk of the Middle East war escalating exists. The high crude oil price increases the pressure of inflation and economic weakness, and the sentiment is still suppressed. The copper concentrate smelting fee continues to decline, and the tension at the mine end has increased. The domestic copper downstream has basically completed the resumption of work and production, and the consumption performance is close to the same period in previous years. The supply - demand relationship is expected to continue to improve. However, the stabilization and rebound of copper prices still require the support of a缓和 macro - sentiment [2]. Aluminum Market Information - Due to the attack on Iranian oil facilities and the strengthening of oil prices, the aluminum price was strong. The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 1.63% to 3,419 US dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,835 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 1.0 to 635,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 392,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three places increased month - on - month, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased month - on - month. The processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded, and the transaction was average. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in the East China region narrowed to 200 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 0.4 to 437,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - The risk of the Middle East war escalating exists. The uncertainty of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz is large, and the concern about the interruption of energy supply in the Middle East has increased. The overseas aluminum supply threat remains large, and the low overseas inventory and strong spot are expected to continue. The domestic downstream start - up rate continues to rise, the proportion of molten aluminum has returned to a relatively normal level, and the large import loss supports the domestic price. The aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short term [5]. Lead Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.31% to 16,654 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 133,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME 3S lead increased by 10 to 1,931.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 188,000 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,550 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,525 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton. The lead ingot futures inventory of the SHFE was 67,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 5 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 284,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancellation warrant was 5,300 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 45.31 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 139.3 US dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.259, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 692.66 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 16 was 80,100 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons compared with March 12 [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead concentrate has decreased slightly, and the lead concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of primary smelting has回调 due to the silver price, and the start - up rate of primary lead has gradually recovered, and the inventory of primary factories has decreased. The visible inventory of lead waste has continued to decline, the profit of secondary lead smelting has been deeply pressured, the start - up rate of secondary lead smelters has recovered limitedly, and the inventory of secondary factories has decreased. The start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has recovered, but the procurement has not improved. The inventory of distributors in February has been well destocked, and the pressure on finished product inventory has been reduced. Currently, the lead ingot import window is wide open, the export of lead batteries has decreased, and the overseas surplus of deliverable inventory flowing into the domestic market has suppressed the price. The destocking situation of monthly battery finished product inventory has improved. On March 16, there were large net long orders from long - position seats, which may be strategic hedging purchases by battery enterprises. The short - term lead price is supported. However, it is still necessary to observe the resumption of production of secondary smelters and the sustainability of battery enterprise orders, and there is a possibility of further decline in the lead price [8]. Zinc Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.61% to 23,349 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 205,700 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME 3S zinc decreased by 37.5 to 3,217 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 214,500 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,200 yuan/ton, the basis in Shanghai was - 95 yuan/ton, the basis in Tianjin was - 105 yuan/ton, the basis in Guangdong was - 85 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was - 10 yuan/ton. The zinc ingot futures inventory of the SHFE was 101,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 118,400 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancellation warrant was 6,200 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 48.17 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 27.63 US dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.059, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,773.65 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on March 16 was 236,200 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons compared with March 12 [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has increased slightly, the domestic TC of zinc concentrate has stopped falling and stabilized, and the imported TC has continued to decline. The zinc smelting profit remains at a relatively low level. Currently, the zinc industry maintains a weak situation. The domestic social inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level, which is higher than the same period in the past two years. The probability of the Iranian conflict becoming long - term has increased, the oil price is at a relatively high level, the market has inflation concerns, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been lowered, which has put pressure on the trend of non - ferrous metals. The zinc prices in the Shanghai and London markets have broken through with increasing positions, and the zinc price has formed a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the accumulation of zinc ingot social inventory and be vigilant against the risks caused by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and unexpected macro - policies [11]. Tin Market Information - On March 18, the main contract of Shanghai tin closed at 370,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% compared with the previous day. The SHFE inventory was 11,673 tons, a decrease of 322 tons compared with the previous day. The LME inventory was 8,745 tons, an increase of 30 tons compared with the previous day. Currently, the overall supply side of tin shows the characteristics of "post - festival recovery but limited upward movement". After the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, as the resumption of work and production gradually progresses, the start - up rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have recovered from the holiday low, and the industry's production activities have entered a stage of mild recovery. Among them, the resumption of production in Yunnan is relatively faster, and the improvement in the start - up rate is more obvious; although there is also recovery in Jiangxi, the recovery amplitude is relatively limited, and the overall recovery slope is relatively gentle. On the demand side, the overall tin demand side is still in a weak recovery stage, and the market is characterized by "slow consumption recovery and strong wait - and - see sentiment". Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, downstream consumption has significantly shrunk. After entering March, the improvement in actual terminal procurement is still relatively limited, and there has been no substantial recovery. The core reason is that the recent high tin price and high volatility have suppressed the procurement enthusiasm of downstream enterprises, and most terminal customers maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude, with weak restocking willingness [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the tin supply side has improved marginally compared with before the festival, it still cannot get rid of the real constraint of tight raw materials. Under the background of simultaneous pressure on the mine end and the secondary end, the release rhythm of smelting - end production capacity is slow, and the short - term supply increase is expected to be limited. The tin supply still maintains a tight pattern. On the tin demand side, high - price suppression and wait - and - see sentiment are still the dominant factors, and short - term consumption is likely to maintain a weak recovery pattern. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the tin price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the overseas LME tin is 45,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - On March 18, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 135,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% compared with the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands remained stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 50 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 6,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. On the cost side, the ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was 71.64 US dollars/wet ton, the same as the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was 32.5 US dollars/wet ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, the price continued to rise. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,092.5 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 1 yuan/nickel point compared with the previous day [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - Some HPAL factories in Indonesia are under maintenance, and the shortage of sulfur continues. The supply of MHP is expected to remain tight, and the nickel supply - demand situation has improved. However, there is a large risk of short - term geopolitical conflicts, and the nickel inventory level is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to operate within the range [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 153,822 yuan, a decrease of 1.21% compared with the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 150,800 - 157,600 yuan, and the average price decreased by 1,950 yuan (- 1.25%) compared with the previous working day. The quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 147,500 - 155,500 yuan, and the average price decreased by 0.98% compared with the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 150,120 yuan, a decrease of 3.35% compared with the previous day's closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,100 yuan [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - On Wednesday, most domestic commodities closed down, and lithium carbonate had a large decline. The new - energy passenger - vehicle market remains weak. As of March 15, the cumulative domestic retail sales this year were 1.345 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 26%, similar to the decline at the end of February. There is currently a lack of bullish drivers in the fundamentals. The domestic lithium salt supply and demand are both strong, and the downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong. There may be buying orders released when the callback amplitude

Group 1 - The article discusses a phone call between Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry regarding the current regional situation and Egypt's concerns about ongoing conflicts [1] - Egypt appreciates China's balanced and just stance and expresses willingness to continue close communication with China to promote de-escalation of the situation [1] - Wang Yi reiterates China's principled position advocating for dialogue and negotiation to resolve regional issues, opposing the use of force, and emphasizes the need for an immediate ceasefire to prevent further suffering and economic impact on the region [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar index. The supply of copper is expected to reach a record high in March, and the demand from downstream industries is gradually increasing. However, the inventory is still in the process of accumulation, and the increase rate has slowed down. The market trading has gradually warmed up, and the spot discount has turned into a premium. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined year-on-year. Overall, the copper price is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short term due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the impact of inflation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved higher, showing a weak trend during the day [1][4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China is 70 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China is 100 yuan/ton. On March 11, 2026, the LME official price was 1,2949 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was -985 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply Side - As of March 9, the spot smelting fee (TC) was -56.10 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -5.70 US cents/pound [8]. - The copper production in March is expected to increase by about 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. It is expected that the production in March may reach a record high [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory is 326,300 tons, an increase of 5,911 tons from the previous period. As of March 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 87,600 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 302,100 tons, an increase of 10,125 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 592,500 short tons, a decrease of 2,033 short tons from the previous period [11]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of the copper cable industry in February was 55.81%, a decrease of 14.29 percentage points month-on-month and an increase of 9.06 percentage points year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in February decreased year-on-year, with production and sales of 694,000 and 796,000 vehicles respectively, a year-on-year decline of 21.8% and 14.2%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 42.4% of the total sales of new vehicles [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term war escalation probability in the Middle East is low, and risk preference improves, providing emotional support for copper. With tight copper supply and increasing downstream start - up rates, copper prices are expected to rise in the short term [3]. - The supply risk in the Middle East for aluminum remains, and the planned shutdown of the South32 Mozambique smelter will keep supply tight. With domestic downstream resuming work, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [6]. - Although lead inventories have increased significantly at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range. The narrowing smelting profit may reduce the surplus of lead ingots. Lead prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually rise later [9]. - The domestic zinc industry is weak, and although the Iran conflict has little impact on zinc ore supply, concerns about trade and energy prices remain. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely during the conflict [11]. - The market has a strong sentiment to buy tin, but the supply - demand of tin is marginally relaxed and inventories are rising. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - In the medium term, the reduction policy of Indonesia's RKAB quota will support the rise of nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [15]. - The fundamental support for lithium carbonate is strong. With the improvement of downstream start - up, the spot may be in a tight situation, and lithium prices may rise. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking rhythm and other factors [18]. - For alumina, the increase in maintenance and delay in production will reduce the inventory accumulation rate. The high registration of warehouse receipts will suppress the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely [21]. - For stainless steel, the supply pressure is increasing, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected to maintain an upward shock pattern [25]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost support is strong, and with the improvement of downstream demand after the festival, the price is expected to remain strong in the short term [28]. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - Trump said the war in Iran was basically over. Crude oil prices rose sharply and then fell back. Copper prices also fell first and then rose. LME copper 3M contract closed up 0.39% to $12,919/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 101,160 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 9,925 to 294,250 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term war escalation probability in the Middle East is low, and risk preference improves. TC is running at a low level, copper supply is tight, downstream start - up rates are rising, and scrap copper substitution is low. Copper prices are expected to rise in the short term. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,100/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - Crude oil prices rose and fell back, and aluminum prices followed. LME aluminum 3M contract fell 1.25% to $3,388/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,850 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 0.1 to 678,000 tons, and warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 336,000 tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 455,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - The supply risk in the Middle East for aluminum remains, and the planned shutdown of the South32 Mozambique smelter will keep supply tight. With domestic downstream resuming work, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,200 - 25,500 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,300 - 3,450/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - On Monday, the SHFE lead index fell 0.21% to 16,746 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $17.5 to $1,932/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 55,700 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 285,900 tons [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - Lead ore inventory and lead concentrate TC slightly increased, and recycled raw material inventory decreased marginally. Smelter start - up rates declined. Although lead inventories increased significantly at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range. The narrowing smelting profit may reduce the surplus of lead ingots. Lead prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually rise later [9]. Zinc Market Information - On Monday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.54% to 24,427 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $61.5 to $3,318/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,360 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 76,300 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 95,000 tons. The national main market zinc ingot social inventory on March 9 was 218,300 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons from March 5 [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic zinc concentrate TC slightly increased, and smelting profit improved slightly. The inventories of smelter products and zinc ingot social inventory increased significantly. The Iran conflict has little impact on zinc ore supply, but concerns about trade and energy prices remain. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely during the conflict [11]. Tin Market Information - On March 9, the SHFE tin main contract fell 2.53% to 383,710 yuan/ton. In the supply side, the start - up rate of Yunnan smelters decreased during the Spring Festival and recovered slowly after the festival. In Jiangxi, the supply of crude tin was tight due to the shortage of scrap. In the demand side, although the demand from emerging fields such as AI servers was optimistic, the overall industry was still in the post - festival resumption transition period, and the actual demand was not effectively reflected [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market has a strong sentiment to buy tin, but the supply - demand of tin is marginally relaxed and inventories are rising. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 54,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - On March 9, the SHFE nickel main contract fell 0.45% to 136,520 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand were stable. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to rise [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the medium term, the reduction policy of Indonesia's RKAB quota will support the rise of nickel prices. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East reduces market risk preference. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 20,000/ton. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [15]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 153,865 yuan, down 0.46% from the previous trading day. The LC2605 contract closed at 161,060 yuan, up 3.14% from the previous closing price [17]. Strategy Viewpoint - The fundamental support for lithium carbonate is strong. After the festival, the start - up rate of salt plants increased, and the inventory reduction of domestic lithium carbonate narrowed. With the improvement of downstream start - up, the spot may be in a tight situation, and lithium prices may rise. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking rhythm, spot market premium and discount changes, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 150,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina Market Information - On March 9, 2026, the alumina index rose 1.48% to 2,911 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading total position was 459,300 hands, an increase of 1,100 hands from the previous trading day. The Shandong spot price rose 10 yuan/ton to 2,620 yuan/ton, at a discount of 291 yuan/ton to the main contract [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - The increase in maintenance and delay in production will reduce the inventory accumulation rate. The high registration of warehouse receipts due to the premium on the futures market will suppress the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel Market Information - At 15:00 on Monday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,105 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 102 to 52,013 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1,094,800 tons on March 6, a decrease of 2.19% from the previous period [23][24]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the festival, the supply pressure increased due to the arrival of steel mill resources and stagnant sales during the Spring Festival. The market procurement atmosphere improved, but the actual purchase of downstream users was still small. Stainless steel is expected to maintain an upward shock pattern, and the reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,400 yuan/ton [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy rose and then fell. The main AD2604 contract closed up 1.68% to 23,670 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased, and the trading volume increased significantly. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.06 to 58,100 tons. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price rose, and the import ADC12 quotation increased by 500 yuan/ton. The three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 0.07 to 36,500 tons [27]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost support for cast aluminum alloy is strong. With the improvement of downstream demand after the festival, and considering supply - side disturbances and seasonal raw material supply shortages, the price is expected to remain strong in the short term [28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices, with gold reaching $5123.26 per ounce and silver at $82.45 per ounce, reflecting increases of 0.68% and 0.54% respectively [1][2] - Gold prices experienced a significant drop after four consecutive days of increase, primarily influenced by a stronger US dollar, high inflation, and escalating conflicts in the Middle East [2] - On March 3, gold fell over 5%, dropping $233 in one night and briefly falling below $5020 per ounce, while silver saw a decline of over 12%, dropping below $78 per ounce [2] Group 2 - The article notes that the semiconductor sector in the US stock market faced a widespread decline, with Intel's stock dropping by 5% [2] - In response to market conditions, A-share semiconductor companies collectively issued price increase notices, with some prices rising by as much as 80% [2]