就在美国中西部农场主们开着联合收割机，满怀期待地驶入金色豆田时，一场来自南半球的"偷袭"正悄然上演——阿根廷政府一纸政令，取消大豆出口税， 一下子获得来自中国买家的100多万吨订单。 然而，阿根廷的这一决策彻底打破了这种"季节性的默契" 就在北美大豆刚刚收获、亟待出口的当下，本应是阿根廷大豆出口淡季的时刻，米莱却宣布取消出口税，瞬间降低了本国大豆的出口成本——这一政策使得 本应处于"清库存"尾声的阿根廷大豆。 时间点很微妙，精准地挖了美国大豆贸易的"墙角" 2025年9月22日，阿根廷政府出人意料地宣布临时取消大豆出口税，官方给出的理由是"外汇储备告警，不得不激励出口，增加外汇收入"——这一招看似是 为了缓解国内经济压力的常规操作，实则是一场精心策划的国际贸易博弈。 意外获得了强大的价格竞争力，摇身一变成为"突发性的倾销商"，给中国买家提供一个诱人的选择。多家媒体报道称，在很短的时间内"阿根廷各地农场主 就获得了总量高达130万吨的订单"。 要理解这一招的精妙之处，必须首先要看清全球大豆市场的产销节奏。北半球的美国、加拿大，大豆在9月至10月迎来集中收获，随后便是出口旺季。换言 之，当前正是美国农场主最忙碌的 ...

（开篇互动） 【深度解读】加拿大对华贸易博弈始末：一场跟风美国引发的经济困局 各位读者朋友，在展开今天的故事前，不妨思考一个问题：当一个小国盲目追随大国政策时，最终会付出怎样的代价？让我们通过加拿大近期的对华贸易案 例，一窥其中的深刻教训。本文所有观点均基于中国商务部、加拿大统计局等官方数据，文末附有详细信息来源供查证。 （事件回溯） 2025年9月下旬，彭博社一则消息引发国际关注：加拿大外长安妮塔·阿南德即将开启访华行程。表面上看，这是两国关系回暖的信号，但揭开外交辞令的面 纱，实则是加拿大在贸易战中陷入困境的无奈之举。这场危机的种子，早在一年前就已埋下。 （冲突起源） 2024年10月，加拿大政府突然宣布对华加征三重关税： 2. 钢铝产品：统一征收25%附加税 1. 电动车：在原有6.1%关税基础上追加100%惩罚性关税 3. 新能源产品：将电池、半导体等纳入加税清单 渥太华方面声称这是保护本土产业，但明眼人都看出这是在配合美国的印太战略。这个被国际社会广泛质疑的战略，本质是通过经济手段遏制中国发展。 （中方反制） 中国商务部在2025年3月打出精准反击组合拳： - 第一波：对加国菜籽油、豌豆征收100% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, raising concerns about the future of U.S.-China trade relations and the impact on American farmers [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - U.S. soybean farmers are facing a challenging situation this harvest season, with a record yield but no orders from China, which was previously their largest buyer [1][3]. - Typically, by this time of year, Chinese buyers would have ordered at least 10% of U.S. soybean production, but currently, the orders stand at zero, indicating a severe market downturn [1][3]. Group 2: Historical Context - The decline in U.S. soybean exports can be traced back to the trade war initiated during Trump's presidency, which led to a 50% reduction in exports to China [3]. - Trump's attempts to persuade China to increase soybean purchases have not been successful, reflecting a loss of trust in the U.S. as a reliable trading partner [3][5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Brazil has emerged as a significant competitor, capitalizing on the U.S. market loss and strengthening its ties with China, positioning itself as the new preferred supplier [5][7]. - Brazil is also looking to enter the U.S. beef market, further intensifying competition for American agricultural products [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There are speculations that Brazil might import U.S. soybeans to sell to China, which could further depress U.S. soybean prices and highlight the U.S.'s precarious position in international trade [7]. - The potential for a turnaround in U.S.-China trade relations exists, but rebuilding trust will require time, patience, and sincerity from both sides [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: On hold [5] - Options: Short put @77,000 yuan/ton [5] Core Viewpoints - The domestic macro sentiment continues to recover, which is beneficial for the performance of risk assets. However, the US tariff policy may increase future uncertainties. The market has largely digested the potential 50% tariff on copper. Fundamentally, copper is currently in a weak supply - demand situation. The price is expected to have limited performance but also limited downside due to tight mine supply. The expected price range next week is 77,800 - 80,300 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data - **Spot Situation**: From July 26, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper ranged from 79,450 yuan/ton to 79,795 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend. The SMM premium - discount quotation ranged from 125 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton, with a fluctuating downward trend. In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased by 0.63 million tons to 12.85 million tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 1.11 million tons to 7.34 million tons, domestic social inventory (excluding bonded areas) decreased by 0.44 million tons to 11.42 million tons, bonded area inventory increased by 0.34 million tons to 8.22 million tons, and Comex inventory increased by 0.58 million tons to 24.86 million tons [1]. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Trump administration introduced a differential tariff plan, imposing 15% - 50% stepped tariffs on imported goods from many countries. There is a conflict between Fed Chairman Powell and President Trump, and the market has significant differences on the Fed's future interest - rate path. Domestically, the anti - involution action has increased market risk sentiment, benefiting non - ferrous metals to some extent [2]. - **Mine - end**: The copper concentrate spot market was quiet. Traders were waiting for September - loaded futures, and smelters received few copper concentrate quotes. A large mining company sold 20,000 tons of September - loaded standard ore at a low price of TC - 40 dollars/ton, and a trader sold 10,000 tons of July - loaded Grasberg ore at a high price of TC - 30 dollars/ton [2]. - **Mining Company Dynamics**: Teck Resources reduced its 2024 copper production target from 230,000 - 270,000 tons to 210,000 - 230,000 tons due to tailings storage issues at the Quebrada Blanca mine and approved a 2.1 - 2.4 billion Canadian dollar investment plan to extend the HVC mine's life. Newmont's Red Chris mine in Canada suspended operations after an accident. Some domestic large - scale mining enterprises also stopped production due to safety incidents [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: The Yangshan copper premium rose slightly. The average price of August QP bills of lading was 66.2 dollars/ton (up 1.2 dollars/week), and the average price of warehouse receipts was 49.2 dollars/ton (up 0.2 dollars/week). The import loss was about 800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Trading**: The market trading was light. Reasons include US tariff policies leading to a large number of July bills of lading being re - exported to Hawaii, reduced arrival expectations from an African smelter in August, and long - term orders being postponed to mid - to - late August. Although the export window opened briefly, weak downstream demand limited buying. The market is closely watching the progress of China - US and Chile - US tariff negotiations [4]. - **Consumption**: In the week of July 26, 2025, the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry dropped to 69.37%, a 4.85 - percentage - point decline. The copper cable industry's operating rate dropped to 70.83%, a 2.07 - percentage - point decline and a 15.28 - percentage - point year - on - year decline. SMM expects the operating rate to drop to 70.3% next week, with a 21.2 - percentage - point year - on - year decline [4]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish, with an expected price range of 77,800 - 80,300 yuan/ton next week. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [5]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [5] - **Options**: Short put @77,000 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1 - China's announcement in December to strengthen export controls on critical minerals like antimony, gallium, and germanium is a strategic response to U.S. actions against China's chip industry, aimed at safeguarding national security and development interests [1][2][9] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for China to ease restrictions reflects the anxiety of American companies that are heavily reliant on Chinese minerals while simultaneously unwilling to lift sanctions [1][2][4] - The import of antimony oxides from Thailand and Mexico surged to 3,834 tons from December 2023 to April 2024, surpassing the total from the previous three years, indicating a significant shift in supply routes due to U.S. companies' attempts to circumvent Chinese regulations [4][5] Group 2 - The prices of gallium, germanium, and antimony have reached historical highs, driven by supply chain disruptions and increased demand from U.S. companies, despite the risks associated with transporting these minerals [5][7] - China's enforcement actions against smuggling and misreporting of mineral exports demonstrate a commitment to maintaining control over its resources, with increased scrutiny at ports and higher penalties for violations [7][9] - The ongoing trade dynamics suggest that while U.S. companies are attempting to adapt to the new restrictions, the fundamental reliance on Chinese minerals remains, highlighting the need for a more cooperative approach rather than continued sanctions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's strategic maneuvers in response to increasing pressure from the US and EU, particularly focusing on its control over rare earth resources and the imposition of anti-dumping tariffs on steel, which have significant implications for global trade and geopolitics [1][4][13]. Rare Earth Resources - China is the largest supplier of rare earth elements, which are crucial for high-tech industries and military applications, giving it a strategic advantage in global supply chains [1][3]. - The tightening of China's rare earth export controls has raised concerns among the US, Japan, and the EU, especially amid escalating global tech competition [1][3]. - The US military's reliance on rare earth elements for critical equipment highlights the potential impact of supply shortages on its operational capabilities [3]. Steel Tariffs - China announced a five-year anti-dumping tariff on steel products from the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, reflecting its increasingly assertive stance in international trade [4][8]. - This tariff is not only a protective measure for China's domestic steel industry but also a strategic signal to the US and EU regarding China's willingness to retaliate against sanctions [8][6]. Geopolitical Influence - China's collaboration with Pakistan and Bangladesh to establish a new regional cooperation mechanism challenges India's dominance in South Asia and aims to reshape the geopolitical landscape [10][12]. - The decline of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) due to India's unilateral actions has created an opportunity for China to enhance its influence in the region [12]. Strategic Implications - China's actions in controlling rare earth resources and imposing steel tariffs are part of a broader strategy to assert its influence in global trade and geopolitics [13]. - The response strategies of Western countries and India to China's assertive measures will significantly affect the future trajectory of global economic and political dynamics [13].

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes the importance of resource accumulation, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions, suggesting that current resource abundance may not last forever [1] - China has purchased 100,000 tons of nickel since December last year, storing it as a national reserve to secure its supply chain amid rising tensions with the US [1] - The European Union is actively seeking to build rare earth reserves to counter China's influence, indicating a competitive dynamic in resource acquisition [1][2] Group 2 - China has not weaponized its rare earth exports but has optimized its export policies in response to international pressures, requiring importers to disclose usage and client information [2] - The relationship between China and Europe is characterized by mistrust, with Europe imposing high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, prompting retaliatory measures from China [2] - China's strategy includes maintaining a stronghold on rare earth resources, which are crucial for Western military and advanced electronic industries, thereby enhancing its bargaining power [2][5]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - Silver futures are currently trading below 8707, with an opening price of 8737 and a current price of 8714, reflecting a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - The highest price reached today was 8763, while the lowest dipped to 8706, indicating a bearish short-term trend in the silver futures market [1] - Key resistance level is identified at 9045, corresponding to the 5-day moving average, with a potential trend reversal signal if the price breaks above 9060 [4] Group 2: Colombian Flower Industry - The trade dispute between Colombia and the U.S. over immigration issues has ongoing impacts on Colombia's flower industry, which is the second-largest flower exporter globally [2] - Colombia's flower industry, which employs over 200,000 people, is facing a tightening of its economic lifeline due to a 10% additional tariff imposed during the Trump administration [2] - The question of who bears the tariff burden highlights the collective anxiety among flower farmers, as rising costs threaten their profit margins and survival [2] Group 3: Supply Chain Collaboration - A shift towards supply chain collaboration has emerged, with stakeholders using data to visualize trade costs and improve efficiency [3] - The collaboration among logistics providers, importers, and wholesalers has transformed the pressure of tariff burdens into a shared responsibility, aiding in market adjustment [3] - Despite these adjustments, Colombian flower farmers remain aware of the uncertainties posed by geopolitical tensions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has imposed anti-dumping duties on imported urea-formaldehyde from the US, EU, Japan, and Taiwan, with rates as high as 74.9%, indicating a strategic move to protect domestic industries while asserting China's position in international trade [1][3]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The anti-dumping investigation took a year, confirming that the imports from the specified regions were indeed sold at unfairly low prices, harming domestic industries [1]. - This action reflects China's commitment to safeguarding its economic interests and demonstrates a robust trade strategy amidst ongoing negotiations with the US [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The anti-dumping measures serve as a dual-purpose tool: economically protecting domestic industries and politically enhancing China's bargaining power in international trade discussions [3]. - The situation illustrates China's independent stance in trade negotiations, emphasizing that it will not be passive in defending its interests even while engaging with major powers like the US [3][4]. Group 3: International Trade Dynamics - The ongoing trade tensions, including unresolved issues like fentanyl tariffs, suggest that while there may be temporary easing in trade conflicts, the underlying challenges remain [3]. - The reactions from the US, EU, and Japan to these anti-dumping measures will be crucial for understanding the broader implications for international trade relations [5].