Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: On hold [5] - Options: Short put @77,000 yuan/ton [5] Core Viewpoints - The domestic macro sentiment continues to recover, which is beneficial for the performance of risk assets. However, the US tariff policy may increase future uncertainties. The market has largely digested the potential 50% tariff on copper. Fundamentally, copper is currently in a weak supply - demand situation. The price is expected to have limited performance but also limited downside due to tight mine supply. The expected price range next week is 77,800 - 80,300 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data - **Spot Situation**: From July 26, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper ranged from 79,450 yuan/ton to 79,795 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend. The SMM premium - discount quotation ranged from 125 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton, with a fluctuating downward trend. In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased by 0.63 million tons to 12.85 million tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 1.11 million tons to 7.34 million tons, domestic social inventory (excluding bonded areas) decreased by 0.44 million tons to 11.42 million tons, bonded area inventory increased by 0.34 million tons to 8.22 million tons, and Comex inventory increased by 0.58 million tons to 24.86 million tons [1]. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Trump administration introduced a differential tariff plan, imposing 15% - 50% stepped tariffs on imported goods from many countries. There is a conflict between Fed Chairman Powell and President Trump, and the market has significant differences on the Fed's future interest - rate path. Domestically, the anti - involution action has increased market risk sentiment, benefiting non - ferrous metals to some extent [2]. - **Mine - end**: The copper concentrate spot market was quiet. Traders were waiting for September - loaded futures, and smelters received few copper concentrate quotes. A large mining company sold 20,000 tons of September - loaded standard ore at a low price of TC - 40 dollars/ton, and a trader sold 10,000 tons of July - loaded Grasberg ore at a high price of TC - 30 dollars/ton [2]. - **Mining Company Dynamics**: Teck Resources reduced its 2024 copper production target from 230,000 - 270,000 tons to 210,000 - 230,000 tons due to tailings storage issues at the Quebrada Blanca mine and approved a 2.1 - 2.4 billion Canadian dollar investment plan to extend the HVC mine's life. Newmont's Red Chris mine in Canada suspended operations after an accident. Some domestic large - scale mining enterprises also stopped production due to safety incidents [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: The Yangshan copper premium rose slightly. The average price of August QP bills of lading was 66.2 dollars/ton (up 1.2 dollars/week), and the average price of warehouse receipts was 49.2 dollars/ton (up 0.2 dollars/week). The import loss was about 800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Trading**: The market trading was light. Reasons include US tariff policies leading to a large number of July bills of lading being re - exported to Hawaii, reduced arrival expectations from an African smelter in August, and long - term orders being postponed to mid - to - late August. Although the export window opened briefly, weak downstream demand limited buying. The market is closely watching the progress of China - US and Chile - US tariff negotiations [4]. - **Consumption**: In the week of July 26, 2025, the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry dropped to 69.37%, a 4.85 - percentage - point decline. The copper cable industry's operating rate dropped to 70.83%, a 2.07 - percentage - point decline and a 15.28 - percentage - point year - on - year decline. SMM expects the operating rate to drop to 70.3% next week, with a 21.2 - percentage - point year - on - year decline [4]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish, with an expected price range of 77,800 - 80,300 yuan/ton next week. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [5]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [5] - **Options**: Short put @77,000 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1 - China's announcement in December to strengthen export controls on critical minerals like antimony, gallium, and germanium is a strategic response to U.S. actions against China's chip industry, aimed at safeguarding national security and development interests [1][2][9] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for China to ease restrictions reflects the anxiety of American companies that are heavily reliant on Chinese minerals while simultaneously unwilling to lift sanctions [1][2][4] - The import of antimony oxides from Thailand and Mexico surged to 3,834 tons from December 2023 to April 2024, surpassing the total from the previous three years, indicating a significant shift in supply routes due to U.S. companies' attempts to circumvent Chinese regulations [4][5] Group 2 - The prices of gallium, germanium, and antimony have reached historical highs, driven by supply chain disruptions and increased demand from U.S. companies, despite the risks associated with transporting these minerals [5][7] - China's enforcement actions against smuggling and misreporting of mineral exports demonstrate a commitment to maintaining control over its resources, with increased scrutiny at ports and higher penalties for violations [7][9] - The ongoing trade dynamics suggest that while U.S. companies are attempting to adapt to the new restrictions, the fundamental reliance on Chinese minerals remains, highlighting the need for a more cooperative approach rather than continued sanctions [9]

文 | 青茶 近年来，随着美国与欧盟不断对中国施压，试图通过加征关税和实施制裁来遏制中国的崛起，全球经济格局也经历了深刻的变化。与此同时，中国凭借坚定 的经济政策和灵活多变的外交策略，逐渐在国际舞台上占据了举足轻重的地位。近期，围绕稀土管控以及钢铁反倾销关税的争议引发了全球广泛关注，而中 国与巴基斯坦、孟加拉国的合作也使得印度的战略压力不断加大。那么，中国究竟是如何在这一复杂局势中实现战略突破的呢？ 稀土素有"现代工业粮食"之称，是支撑高科技产业的关键资源，尤其在军事领域及半导体产业中具有无可替代的重要作用。作为全球稀土资源的最大供应 国，中国在这一战略资源的掌控上无疑处于领先地位。近年来，随着中美贸易战的加剧，中国对稀土出口的管控逐步收紧，这引发了美国、日本、欧盟等国 家的深切忧虑，尤其在全球科技竞争日益激烈的背景下，稀土资源的供应问题成为国际政治博弈中的重要筹码。 美国对稀土的依赖几乎无法避免。稀土元素被广泛应用于高科技产品、军事装备及能源领域，尤其是在军事领域，美军的战机、导弹、雷达系统等装备几乎 都离不开稀土元素。然而，美国稀土资源的储备早已接近枯竭，若不能从外部及时获得稀土，将直接影响未来几年美军的 ...

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes the importance of resource accumulation, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions, suggesting that current resource abundance may not last forever [1] - China has purchased 100,000 tons of nickel since December last year, storing it as a national reserve to secure its supply chain amid rising tensions with the US [1] - The European Union is actively seeking to build rare earth reserves to counter China's influence, indicating a competitive dynamic in resource acquisition [1][2] Group 2 - China has not weaponized its rare earth exports but has optimized its export policies in response to international pressures, requiring importers to disclose usage and client information [2] - The relationship between China and Europe is characterized by mistrust, with Europe imposing high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, prompting retaliatory measures from China [2] - China's strategy includes maintaining a stronghold on rare earth resources, which are crucial for Western military and advanced electronic industries, thereby enhancing its bargaining power [2][5]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - Silver futures are currently trading below 8707, with an opening price of 8737 and a current price of 8714, reflecting a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - The highest price reached today was 8763, while the lowest dipped to 8706, indicating a bearish short-term trend in the silver futures market [1] - Key resistance level is identified at 9045, corresponding to the 5-day moving average, with a potential trend reversal signal if the price breaks above 9060 [4] Group 2: Colombian Flower Industry - The trade dispute between Colombia and the U.S. over immigration issues has ongoing impacts on Colombia's flower industry, which is the second-largest flower exporter globally [2] - Colombia's flower industry, which employs over 200,000 people, is facing a tightening of its economic lifeline due to a 10% additional tariff imposed during the Trump administration [2] - The question of who bears the tariff burden highlights the collective anxiety among flower farmers, as rising costs threaten their profit margins and survival [2] Group 3: Supply Chain Collaboration - A shift towards supply chain collaboration has emerged, with stakeholders using data to visualize trade costs and improve efficiency [3] - The collaboration among logistics providers, importers, and wholesalers has transformed the pressure of tariff burdens into a shared responsibility, aiding in market adjustment [3] - Despite these adjustments, Colombian flower farmers remain aware of the uncertainties posed by geopolitical tensions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has imposed anti-dumping duties on imported urea-formaldehyde from the US, EU, Japan, and Taiwan, with rates as high as 74.9%, indicating a strategic move to protect domestic industries while asserting China's position in international trade [1][3]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The anti-dumping investigation took a year, confirming that the imports from the specified regions were indeed sold at unfairly low prices, harming domestic industries [1]. - This action reflects China's commitment to safeguarding its economic interests and demonstrates a robust trade strategy amidst ongoing negotiations with the US [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The anti-dumping measures serve as a dual-purpose tool: economically protecting domestic industries and politically enhancing China's bargaining power in international trade discussions [3]. - The situation illustrates China's independent stance in trade negotiations, emphasizing that it will not be passive in defending its interests even while engaging with major powers like the US [3][4]. Group 3: International Trade Dynamics - The ongoing trade tensions, including unresolved issues like fentanyl tariffs, suggest that while there may be temporary easing in trade conflicts, the underlying challenges remain [3]. - The reactions from the US, EU, and Japan to these anti-dumping measures will be crucial for understanding the broader implications for international trade relations [5].