策略联合行业 周期在扩散 20260129 摘要 上游周期品受益于资金面宽松和产能周期底部，供需紧平衡推动价格上 涨，化工、黑色链、地产链等领域具备投资机会，短期市场强势，长期 逻辑支持，但需关注结构性轮动和性价比。 化工行业公募持仓低配，双碳政策限制新增产能，资本开支负增长限制 供给，行业景气度向上。关注石油石化资源禀赋好的企业，基础化工需 求超预期及双碳政策边际变化下的核心资产，以及出海方向的轮胎企业。 煤炭板块供给收缩，海外需求增加，库存下降，价格随时可能上涨。PB 角度看公司被低估，现货比例高的公司业绩弹性仍然存在，应乐观地看 待节后市场，并关注被严重低估且具备业绩弹性的煤炭公司。 全球动荡局势下，实物资产崛起，黄金牛市持续，地缘冲突加剧避险情 绪，央行购金持续，推荐紫金黄金国际和山东黄金。工业金属看好铝和 铜，铝板块重点推荐中国铝业，铜板块则建议配置藏格紫金与洛钼。 顺丰控股具备绝对收益和估值修复空间，2025 年与 2026 年的绝对收 益率为 3.8%，估值创十年新低，后续 EPS 上修与 PE 修复空间较大。 顺丰同城第三方配送领域占据领先地位，未来互联网大厂合作将带来单 量与业绩的大幅提升。 ...

1月28日下午，省政协主席周波到省政协十三届四次会议经济1组参加分组讨论，与委员们一起讨论 政府工作报告、"十五五"规划纲要草案等。 讨论现场气氛热烈。于海联、邢运江、杨树等省政协委员先后发言，大家一致认为，政府工作报告 求真务实，过去的一年，在中共辽宁省委的坚强领导下，全省上下牢记嘱托、感恩奋进，众志成城、奋 勇拼搏，各项工作取得新进展新成效。委员们就利用好资本市场、发挥好保险行业功能、全面提升开放 水平等方面提出意见建议。 周波认真听取发言，并和大家深入交流。他说，政府工作报告总结成绩实事求是，系统全面；分析 形势客观深入，不回避问题；设定目标积极稳妥，符合实际；部署任务科学周密，举措有力，是一个高 举旗帜、求真务实、催人奋进的好报告。"十五五"规划纲要草案立足省情实际、着眼长远发展，为全省 未来发展描绘了清晰蓝图，令人备受鼓舞、充满期待。全省各级政协组织要坚定信心、勇于担当，牢牢 把握新时代人民政协的使命任务，把服务高质量发展作为履职尽责的首要方向。广大政协委员要充分发 挥自身优势，在深入了解省情的基础上，不断增强对全省发展形势、目标任务、谋划部署的理解和把 握，在扎实做好本职工作的同时，聚焦中心任务， ...

盒马误将水仙球当百合配送致用户中毒，已向用户道歉并协商赔偿，但赔偿方案仍有分歧。 整理 ｜徐子欣 点击上方【36氪随声听】，一键收听大公司热门新闻。听完音频记得添加进入 【我的小程序】 中哟！ 盒马回应将鲜百合误送成水仙球致用户中毒 近日，有消费者反映在盒马平台订购鲜百合，收货后却发现为水仙球，食用后出现呕吐、腹痛等中毒症状。据消费者周女士讲 述，1月2日，她为了给感冒的孩子煮汤，在北京一家盒马mini门店下单购买了鲜百合，货品由家中老人代收。但盒马送来的并 非鲜百合，而是外形与其相似的水仙球，且相关标识印于包装盒侧面位置。老人在不知情的情况下用水仙球煮汤并和孩子饮用 后，相继出现头疼、肚疼、头晕和剧烈呕吐等症状。 31个省份公布2025年经济增速 深铁再出借20余亿元供万科支付展期首付 恒生银行正式从港交所退市 字节禁止员工利用公司资源做号谋利 今年春运多趟火车再现1元低价票 1月28日，盒马方面回复记者称，"我们第一时间联系顾客，了解到顾客于2日晚送医、3日已出院，随即成立专项小组全程跟进 并制定补偿方案。目前，因双方对赔偿方案仍有较大分歧，相关事宜仍在协商中。我们再次向受影响的顾客表示最诚挚的歉 意。" ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound in the afternoon, with all three major indices turning positive, and the ChiNext index showing strong performance [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 91 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 3,500 stocks in the market rose, indicating a rapid rotation of market hotspots [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector saw significant gains, with nearly twenty constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Jieli Suojun and Shunhao Co., which achieved consecutive limit-ups [1] - The robotics sector also showed strength, with stocks like Fulei New Materials and Yichang Technology reaching the daily limit [1] - The oil and gas sector continued its strong performance, with Intercontinental Oil and Gas achieving consecutive limit-ups [1] - The coal sector was active, with Dayou Energy achieving two limit-ups in three days [1] - The PCB sector experienced a rapid rise, with stocks like Pengding Holdings hitting the daily limit [1] - Conversely, the insurance, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical sectors faced declines, particularly the innovative drug sector, which saw significant drops in stocks like Aidi Pharmaceutical and Huisheng Biological [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Galaxy Securities believes the commercial aerospace industry is entering a golden era of dual growth from both demand and supply sides, recommending attention to structural component suppliers and satellite manufacturing [2] - CITIC Construction Investment suggests that the home appliance sector is likely to undergo a value reassessment, driven by policy support and increased insurance capital inflow [3] - Huatai Securities indicates that the easing of pressure on leading real estate companies' debt repayment plans, along with rising expectations for real estate policies, could provide opportunities for valuation recovery in real estate stocks [4]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP exceeded 134.9 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, ranking among the top major economies globally [2] - The economic structure continues to optimize, with the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries accounting for 6.8%, 36.5%, and 56.7% of GDP, respectively [2] - Consumption, investment, and net exports contributed 2.2, 1.3, and 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth, respectively [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - China has made significant breakthroughs in cutting-edge technologies such as 6G communication, AI large models, and quantum computing [3] - The first international 6G field test network was established in July 2024, demonstrating potential 6G transmission capabilities [3] - China ranks second globally in the number of open-source participants, with rapid growth in the sector [3] Group 3: New Energy and Carbon Neutrality - The new energy sector has become a growth engine, with China accounting for over 60% of global new wind and solar installations in 2024 [4] - The installed capacity of new energy storage exceeded 70 million kilowatts, with leading companies like CATL and BYD holding a 65.5% market share in the global power battery market [4] - Solid-state battery technology has achieved mass production breakthroughs, with energy density exceeding 400 Wh/kg [4] Group 4: Healthcare Sector - The healthcare market is expanding due to aging population and rising health consumption demands, with government spending in the sector reaching 2.03 trillion yuan in 2024 [5] - AI-assisted diagnosis, gene editing, and telemedicine technologies are accelerating breakthroughs and applications in the industry [5] - Leading companies like WuXi AppTec and Mindray are actively pursuing globalization strategies to capture high-end medical equipment and biopharmaceutical markets [5] Group 5: Financial and Consumer Trends - The total assets of China's financial institutions reached 495.59 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 7.5% year-on-year [6] - The banking sector's total assets were 444.57 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.5% [6] - The rise of new retail and domestic brands is reshaping the consumer market, with companies like Luckin Coffee and Pop Mart leveraging data-driven strategies [6] Group 6: Emerging and Future Industries - Emerging industries such as new energy, aerospace, and quantum technology are driving economic growth and international competitiveness [7] - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035 [7] - The embodied intelligence market is expected to exceed 480 billion yuan in 2024, with potential to surpass one trillion yuan by 2031 [7] Group 7: Super CEO Recognition - The "Super CEO" list highlights leaders across various sectors, including healthcare, new energy, entertainment, and technology, showcasing their exceptional leadership and performance [8] - These CEOs have demonstrated resilience and strategic vision in navigating industry challenges and driving company growth [8]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on December 16, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.32% at 25,547.92 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.56% at 5,467.76 points, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index down 0.35% at 8,886.24 points. The Red Chip Index increased by 0.11% to 4,129.18 points [1] Company News - China Shenhua (01088.HK) reported coal sales of 389.5 million tons for the first 11 months, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year. November sales were 37 million tons, down 3.6% year-on-year [2] - China Metallurgical Group (01618.HK) signed new contracts worth RMB 958.13 billion in the first 11 months, an 8.6% decrease year-on-year, with overseas contracts amounting to RMB 75 billion, a 0.4% increase year-on-year [2] - China Eastern Airlines (00670.HK) saw a 6.51% year-on-year increase in passenger capacity in November, with passenger turnover up 10.35% and a seat occupancy rate of 87.37%, up 3.04 percentage points year-on-year [2] - China Southern Airlines (01055.HK) reported an 8.68% year-on-year increase in passenger capacity in November, with passenger turnover up 10.42% and a seat occupancy rate of 86.29%, up 1.36 percentage points year-on-year [2] - New China Life Insurance (01336.HK) reported cumulative original insurance premium income of RMB 188.85 billion for the first 11 months, a 16% year-on-year increase [3] - Hopson Development Holdings (00754.HK) reported total contract sales of approximately RMB 14.27 billion for the first 11 months, an 8.91% decrease year-on-year [4] - Kaisa Group (01813.HK) reported a pre-sale amount of RMB 511 million in November, a 21.4% decrease year-on-year [5] - Genscript Biotech (01672.HK) is expected to become a leading oral small molecule IL-17 inhibitor, with positive Phase I study results in the U.S. [5] - China Supply Chain Industry (03708.HK) signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Golden Energy regarding digital gold assets [6] - Times China Holdings (01233.HK) had a liquidation petition against the company withdrawn [7] - Botai Car Union (02889.HK) received a project designation notice from a leading domestic electric vehicle client [8] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Securities indicated that the Hong Kong stock market is at a rebound stage, with medium to long-term investment attractiveness. Despite some overseas risks being released, there are still potential risks ahead. The market has adjusted expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may impact risk appetite for Hong Kong stocks [9] - Guohai Securities noted that the development of assisted driving functions is entering a new regulatory phase, with a clear path for standard implementation expected between 2025 and 2027. This will create market demand driven by policy compliance, particularly in areas like driver monitoring systems and data recording systems [9][10] - CITIC Securities highlighted that targeted radionuclide therapy (TRT) is a promising direction in targeted treatment, with significant investment and development activity in the nuclear medicine sector [10]

Macro Economic Overview - China's exports showed a short-term rebound in November, exceeding market expectations, driven by improvements in exports to the EU, Latin America, Japan, South Korea, and Africa, while exports to the US and ASEAN remained weak [2] - The semiconductor exports benefited from the global AI boom, maintaining a high growth rate, reflecting China's ongoing technological advancements [2] - Imports slightly improved due to processing trade, but general trade continued to decline due to weak domestic demand [2] Global Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,765, down 1.23% for the day but up 28.44% year-to-date [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54% to 3,924, with a year-to-date increase of 17.08% [3] - The US markets saw a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.45% and the S&P 500 down 0.35% [3] Automotive Industry Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to see retail and wholesale sales reach historical highs in 2025, with a more complex landscape anticipated in 2026 due to the phasing out of subsidies [6][7] - Despite challenges from subsidy reductions, retail sales are expected to remain stable, with wholesale volumes projected to grow by 2.9% in 2026 [7] - The competition in the automotive sector is expected to intensify, with new model releases at historical highs and potential price increases in battery costs impacting profit margins [7] Insurance Sector Analysis - The recent adjustment in risk factors for insurance companies aims to encourage long-term equity holdings, potentially releasing a minimum capital of 30.8 billion yuan [9][10] - The adjustment is expected to enhance the capital efficiency of insurance investments in A-shares compared to H-shares, benefiting major players like China Ping An and China Life [11] - The insurance sector maintains a "buy" rating, with recommended stocks including China Ping An, China Life, and AIA Group [12] Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 60.9% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index [13] - The recent release of the basic medical insurance directory supports innovation, with 114 new drugs added, including 50 innovative drugs [13][14] - The commercial insurance directory's introduction is seen as a significant step towards expanding China's commercial health insurance landscape [14][15]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,095 points, up by 0.24%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.37% [2][3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 4.1 billion HKD today [2] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks exhibited divergent trends, with Meituan dropping over 3%, while Alibaba, Xiaomi, and NetEase saw gains [2] - The overall sentiment in the tech sector remains cautious, influenced by the performance of large-cap stocks [2][4] Heavy Machinery Sector - Heavy machinery stocks experienced a collective surge, with Sany Heavy Industry rising over 5% [6] - The heavy truck market in China reported sales of approximately 100,000 units in November, marking a year-on-year increase of about 46% [6] - The industry has seen a consistent upward trend, with an average growth rate of 42% since April [6] Insurance Sector - Insurance stocks showed recovery, with China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, and China People's Insurance Group rising by 3.32%, 2.78%, and 2.54% respectively [7] - Analysts suggest that the impact of real estate sector fluctuations on insurance companies is limited, and a rebound in the insurance liability side is expected [7] New Energy Vehicles (NEV) Sector - The NEV sector faced pressure, with NIO, XPeng Motors, and Li Auto experiencing declines of 6.74%, 5.52%, and 0.78% respectively [10][11] - November sales data revealed that XPeng delivered 36,728 vehicles (up 19% YoY), NIO delivered 36,275 vehicles (up over 76% YoY), while Li Auto's deliveries fell by over 30% YoY [10] Consumer Electronics Sector - The consumer electronics sector continued its upward trend, with companies like FIH Mobile, AAC Technologies, and GoerTek seeing increases of 5.38%, 3.95%, and 3.00% respectively [12][14] - The rise of AI in mobile technology is expected to reshape industry competition and create new growth opportunities for related companies [12] Innovative Pharmaceuticals Sector - The innovative pharmaceuticals sector weakened, with companies like Peijia Medical and WuXi AppTec experiencing declines of 10.36% and 5.13% respectively [15][17] - Analysts believe that the sector is sensitive to global financing conditions, and a potential easing of monetary policy could alleviate financing pressures and support valuation recovery [15]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP is projected to exceed 134.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, ranking among the top major economies globally [2] - The economic structure continues to optimize, with the primary industry accounting for 6.8%, secondary industry 36.5%, and tertiary industry 56.7% of GDP [2] - The three drivers of growth—consumption, investment, and exports—are working in synergy, contributing 2.2 percentage points, 1.3 percentage points, and 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth, respectively [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - China is making significant breakthroughs in cutting-edge technologies such as 6G communication, AI large models, and quantum computing [3] - The first international 6G field test network was established in July 2024, demonstrating potential for 6G transmission capabilities [3] - By March 2025, a major breakthrough in quantum communication was achieved, establishing a comprehensive quantum communication network [3] Group 3: New Energy and Carbon Neutrality - The new energy sector is becoming a growth engine under the "dual carbon" goals, with China accounting for over 60% of global new installations in wind and solar energy in 2024 [4] - The installed capacity of new energy storage has surpassed 70 million kilowatts, with leading companies like CATL and BYD holding a 65.5% market share in the global power battery market [4] - Solid-state battery technology has achieved mass production breakthroughs, with energy density exceeding 400 Wh/kg, boosting the export of new energy vehicles to the world's highest volume [4] Group 4: Healthcare Sector - The aging population and health consumption upgrades are creating a trillion-yuan market, with national health expenditure reaching 2.03 trillion yuan in 2024 [5] - Technologies such as AI-assisted diagnosis, gene editing, and telemedicine are accelerating implementation, with companies like WuXi AppTec and Mindray Medical expanding globally [5] Group 5: Financial and Consumer Trends - The financial sector is progressing steadily amid strict regulations and digitalization, with total assets of financial institutions reaching 495.59 trillion yuan, a 7.5% year-on-year increase [6] - The banking sector's total assets amounted to 444.57 trillion yuan, growing by 6.5% [6] - In the consumer market, new retail and domestic brands are rising, with companies like Luckin Coffee and Pop Mart reshaping market dynamics through data-driven and IP operations [6] Group 6: Emerging and Future Industries - Emerging and future industries are seen as drivers of economic growth and international competitiveness, with the low-altitude economy projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 [7] - The embodied intelligence market is expected to exceed 480 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in smart manufacturing and services [7] Group 7: Super CEO Selection - The "2025 Super CEO" selection is open to all outstanding enterprises in China, covering both listed and unlisted companies [8] - The evaluation criteria include company size (25%), financial performance (40%), shareholder returns (20%), and personal reputation (15%) [8] - A total of 288 CEOs have entered the candidate pool, with the final list to feature the top 25 CEOs [8]

Core Insights - Jeremy Miller, a long-term shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway, has studied Warren Buffett's annual letters to shareholders since the 1960s, treating them as an "investment textbook" and has authored a book detailing his findings on Buffett's investment philosophy [1] Group 1: Investment Principles - Principle One: Never Predict the Market Buffett has stated that he does not possess the ability to predict market trends and dismisses those who claim to do so, especially after market movements have occurred [3][5][4] - Principle Two: Invest in "Deep Value" Buffett focuses on "deep value," which refers to companies with strong products and management that are undervalued by the market. He compares a company's actual assets to its market valuation and invests when he identifies a significant undervaluation [6][7] - Principle Three: Take a Long-Term View Buffett emphasizes that short-term results are not a priority, advocating for a minimum five-year performance review of a company. He believes that time can heal poor investments and that successful companies will continue to provide opportunities for reinvestment [12][13] - Principle Four: Relative Performance Matters Buffett asserts that performance should be evaluated relative to appropriate benchmarks, such as major stock indices. He uses these comparisons to assess his investment success or failure [14][15] - Principle Five: The Power of Compounding Buffett highlights the importance of compound returns, illustrating how small variables can lead to significant changes over time, while also cautioning against overlooked costs and taxes that can erode wealth [16]