Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the U.S. stock market [5]. Core Views - The U.S. service sector showed significant recovery in October, with the ISM Services PMI reaching 52.4, the highest in eight months, driven by a surge in new orders [1]. - Inflationary pressures are rising, with the price index for business input costs soaring to 70, the highest in three years, indicating increased cost pressures in the service sector [1]. - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts, with a notable divide among committee members on the aggressiveness of potential rate reductions [2]. - The U.S. government is nearing the end of a 40-day shutdown, which is expected to alleviate liquidity pressures in the market once fiscal spending is released [3]. Summary by Sections Economic Activity - The U.S. economy is exhibiting resilience, with service sector activity rebounding and inflation pressures complicating the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation efforts [1][2]. - The employment index remains in contraction territory, but the rate of decline has slowed to the slowest pace in five months [1]. Monetary Policy - There is a strong debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of future interest rate cuts, with a 67% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2]. Government Operations - A bipartisan agreement in the Senate is expected to end the government shutdown, which has significantly impacted economic forecasts, with GDP growth for Q4 potentially halved [3]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests utilizing a medium to short-duration strategy to capture yields while managing long-term interest rate risks, recommending a core allocation in 2-5 year U.S. Treasuries [4]. - Caution is advised regarding long-term bonds due to high government debt and fiscal deficit pressures, with a focus on maintaining flexibility in investment portfolios [4].

Macro and Strategy - The public REITs index has rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.2%, and the average weekly change for property and operating rights REITs was +0.1% and +0.7% respectively [9][10] - The total market value of REITs increased to 218.8 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.52%, up 0.13 percentage points from the previous week [10][11] Chemical Industry - The 2026 refrigerant quota distribution plan has been released, with a reduction of 3,000 tons for R22 production quotas and a complete elimination of R141b quotas [14][15] - The flexibility of the third-generation refrigerant quotas has been enhanced, allowing for two adjustments per year, with a total not exceeding 30% of the quota amount [14][15] - The chemical industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook for refrigerants, particularly R32 and R134a, due to tightening quota constraints [15] Mechanical Industry - Tesla plans to launch the Optimus V3 robot in Q1 2026, with a production capacity target of 1 million units by the end of next year [16][17] - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to enter a large-scale production phase, benefiting both the complete machine and component supply chains [17][18] Oilfield Services - The company is a leading global oilfield service provider, with a focus on offshore oil and gas exploration and production [28][29] - The company is expected to benefit from China's offshore oil and gas development, with a projected capital expenditure of 135 billion yuan in 2025 [29][30] - The drilling platform utilization rate is high, and daily fees are expected to rise due to a decrease in retired platforms [29][30] Chemical Manufacturing - WanHua Chemical reported a revenue of 53.32 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a net profit of 3.03 billion yuan [31][32] - The polyurethane segment is experiencing a mixed demand, with a planned capacity expansion of 700,000 tons for MDI by Q2 2026 [32][33] - The petrochemical segment is under pressure from price declines, but revenue is expected to grow due to increased production capacity [33] Agricultural Solutions - Guoguang Co. reported a revenue of 1.523 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6.09% [35][36] - The company is focusing on promoting comprehensive crop management solutions, with a significant increase in R&D investment [35][36] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [36][37] Dental Care - Dengkang Dental achieved a revenue of 1.228 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 16.66% [38] - The company is adjusting its online marketing strategy, which has led to a temporary slowdown in growth [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market [5]. Core Views - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of key economic data, increasing uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has declined for three consecutive months, indicating growing public concern about the economic outlook, with inflation expectations remaining high at 4.6% [2]. - Market sentiment has shifted positively due to comments from former President Trump regarding U.S.-China trade relations, despite ongoing government shutdown concerns [2]. - The report suggests that in the context of "tariff disruptions and a dovish Fed," U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline, with a recommendation to focus on medium to short-term U.S. Treasuries [3]. Summary by Sections U.S. Macroeconomics and Liquidity - The government shutdown has resulted in the suspension of key economic data releases, creating a "data vacuum" that complicates economic assessments and policy decisions [1]. - The consumer confidence index reflects a significant drop, indicating heightened economic anxiety among consumers [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises maintaining a core allocation in medium to short-term U.S. Treasuries to lock in yields and reduce volatility, with a potential extension to five years for higher-risk investors [3]. - Investment-grade credit bonds are recommended, particularly in technology and consumer staples sectors, while high-yield bonds should have controlled durations [3]. - Chinese dollar bonds are highlighted for their credit improvement and spread advantages, with a focus on "high quality and short duration" strategies [3]. Key Events and Data - Future attention should be directed towards the upcoming U.S. CPI data and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book [3].

Core Viewpoint - The bond ETF for 5 to 10 years has shown a mixed performance with a recent price of 117.49 yuan and a year-to-date increase of 5.34% as of July 10, 2025 [3] Group 1: Performance Metrics - The bond ETF has a recent trading volume of 631.07 million yuan with a turnover rate of 0.42% [3] - The fund's total size has reached 1.496 billion yuan [3] - Over the past five years, the net value of the bond ETF has increased by 21.89% [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 2.58%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 10 months and a maximum increase of 5.81% [3] - The annual profit percentage stands at 100.00%, with a monthly profit probability of 72.69% [3] - The Sharpe ratio over the last two years is 1.28 [4] Group 2: Risk and Drawdown - The maximum drawdown for the bond ETF this year is 2.15%, compared to a benchmark drawdown of 0.59% [4] Group 3: Fees and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the bond ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] - The tracking error for the past month is 0.018%, closely following the index of active bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Outlook - Recent market adjustments in the bond sector are attributed to rumors regarding real estate stimulus and investment constraints in rural commercial banks [6] - Institutions suggest that a new round of interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points is needed to support the 10-year government bond yield [6] - The trading activity in the secondary market shows mixed results among different banking sectors, with significant movements in large banks and rural commercial banks [6] - The outlook remains cautiously optimistic for long-duration bonds and certain types of municipal and dollar bonds [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Neutral - Maintain" [5] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market in the current period is "Neutral" [1] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has increased uncertainty, which may lead to a re - evaluation of the global supply chain, energy prices, and risk premiums, and release the risk of global asset re - pricing [1] - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in June, maintaining a high - interest rate environment to signal a wait - and - see approach and leaving room for rate cuts within the year. There are significant internal differences in the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and the policy path lacks clarity [2] - In April, the US experienced a large - scale net capital outflow, and international funds' willingness to allocate US bonds weakened [2] - The market's implied rate - cut expectation remains at two times within the year, likely in September and December [3] - US Treasury yields have risen across the board, and the term spread has slightly narrowed [3] - Investors are advised to respond flexibly to policy and geopolitical risks, prioritize medium - and short - duration bonds, and be cautious when allocating long - duration bonds [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The report presents figures on 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 - year US Treasuries, monthly issuance amounts, and the number of implied rate cuts in the federal funds rate futures market [13][14][19][21] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The report shows figures related to US inflation year - on - year trends, the federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit, the economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claimants, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, real estate new housing approval, start, and sales year - on - year growth rates, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, breakeven inflation expectations, and non - farm industry contributions [25][27][29][31][38][43][44][50][54] Exchange Rates - The report includes figures on the one - year trend and two - week changes of non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond yield spread, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the change in the one - year US dollar - RMB forward exchange cost [55][56][62][64] Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The report provides figures on the price trends of US dollar bonds, the combined price trends of US and European dollar bonds, the price trends of global investment - grade dollar bonds, the price trends of global high - yield dollar bonds and Chinese domestic bonds, the two - week return comparison of the global bond market, the US Treasury volatility MOVE index and the VIX fear index, and the price changes of US Treasury ETFs with different maturities [67][71][74][76] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - The report shows figures on the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by rating and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds, the two - week returns (by rating and industry), the net financing amount trend, and the maturity scale of each sector [79][83][85][87][91] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies carried out 12 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 3 rating upgrades, 2 rating revocations, 4 initial ratings, and 3 rating downgrades [92]

Group 1 - Many investors aim to diversify their funds, covering both RMB and foreign currency assets, as well as stock and bond assets [1] - Dollar bonds are an important component of this diversification strategy [2] Group 2 - A free course is available that systematically introduces investment knowledge related to dollar bond funds [2] - Interested individuals can add the course assistant and reply with "美元债" to receive the course materials [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Neutral - Maintain" [4] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Neutral" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The "rush to import" led to a 0.3% decline in the US GDP in Q1 2025, the first contraction since 2022. However, the trade deficit is expected to narrow in Q2, and imports may boost GDP [1] - The US April non - farm payroll data was robust, with stable unemployment and slowing wage growth. The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in May and may cut rates in July [2] - The volatility of US Treasury bonds has slowed, with flat rates in the past two weeks and a slightly narrowed term spread. The US Treasury bond market is expected to remain volatile [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The yields of 1 - year/2 - year/3 - year/5 - year/10 - year/20 - year/30 - year US Treasury bonds changed by 1/2/0/ - 3/ - 1/ - 1/ - 1bp respectively in the past two weeks. The 10Y and 2Y yields were 4.33% and 3.83% respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread narrowed to 50bp [3] 3.2 US Macroeconomy and Liquidity - In Q1 2025, the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was - 0.3%, the first contraction since 2022. The main reasons were a sharp increase in imports and a decline in government spending. However, business equipment spending increased by 22.5% [1] - In April, the US non - farm employment increased by 177,000, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage growth slowed [2] - The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in May and may cut rates in July due to inflation still above the 2% target and the impact of tariff policies on inflation [2] 3.3 Exchange Rates - No specific analysis content about exchange rates is provided in the text, only related chart descriptions are given [53][59][61] 3.4 Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The US dollar bond market is affected by trade negotiations, Fed interest rate policy expectations, and inflation data, and is expected to remain volatile [3] 3.5 Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took one rating action on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, with S&P giving Guangdong Energy Group Natural Gas Co., Ltd. an initial rating of BBB+ [89] 3.6 Rating Actions - S&P gave Guangdong Energy Group Natural Gas Co., Ltd. an initial rating of BBB+ on April 22, 2025 [90]