报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周工业金属商品走弱，主要源于降息预期减弱及美国对铜收税：1）就业数据改善叠加美国对 等关税恶化提升通胀预期，本周联储降息预期弱化，美元与美债因此反弹，压制工业金属商品； 2）美商务部长表示将对铜征税 50%，引发后续非美地区需求担忧，非美铜价受挫。国家极为 重视稀土行业，持续强化对资源及冶炼的掌控力度，而在中美贸易摩擦如何演绎仍具备不确定 性的当下，稀土的中长期战略价值凸显。同时海外加速稀土产业链构建，并意图积极扩大稀土 冶炼和磁材加工能力。 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 稀土再得价值重估，重视白银补涨弹性 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ...

长夜渐明，星图已显——能源金属行业 2025 年度中期策 略报告 20250707 摘要 中国对稀土和钨的出口管制以及刚果金对钴的出口禁令导致全球战略金 属供应紧张，推动了相关金属的价值重估，尤其是在中美贸易摩擦背景 下，稀土的战略地位更加凸显。 国家对稀土集团的整合加强了对冶炼分离资产及进口矿的管控，叠加人 形机器人及海外空调需求增长，稀土供需长期偏紧，行业供需改善有望 带来价格持续增长，相关公司资产证券化值得关注。 钨行业面临供应紧张，国内钨矿采矿证批复量减少，矿山品位下降，新 增供给有限，导致钨价持续创新高。尽管下游需求不振，但供给端变化 显著，若工程机械等领域需求增长，钨价仍有上涨空间。 刚果金钴出口禁令旨在改善矿企盈利状况和政府税收，尽管短期内市场 未出现短缺，但随着库存消化，预计未来将进入实质性短缺期，推动钴 价上涨，印尼镍产能布局企业将受益。 印尼镍矿政策提升了镍矿在行业盈利分配中的地位，镍价在 15,000- 17,000 美元区间震荡，受不锈钢和三元需求疲软影响，企业转向电机、 电镀领域以最大化利润，新能源公司在镍产能布局方面进展显著。 Q&A 2025 年能源金属行业的核心投资思路是什么？ ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that cobalt production cuts are gradually being realized, leading to an expected increase in cobalt prices due to tightening supply conditions [1][6][98] - The report maintains a bullish stance on strategic metals, particularly recommending rare earths and antimony due to their rigid supply characteristics and potential for value reassessment [6][84] Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 32,393.83 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 30,354.97 billion yuan [2] - In May, the production of electric vehicles in China saw a significant year-on-year increase, with sales reaching 1.27 million units, marking a 35% growth [22][24] - The photovoltaic sector also experienced robust growth, with newly installed capacity reaching 197.85 GW in the first five months of 2025, a 150% increase year-on-year [19] Cobalt Market Analysis - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its export ban on cobalt for an additional three months, which is expected to further tighten supply and drive prices upward [6][98] - In June, the production of electrolytic cobalt was reported at 2,730 tons, a decrease of 22% month-on-month, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][106] - The price of standard-grade MB cobalt was reported at $15.78 per pound, down 0.79% from the previous period, while alloy-grade MB cobalt increased by 1.31% to $19.35 per pound [17][98] Rare Earth Market Insights - The report highlights that rare earth prices are at a cyclical low, with the domestic price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 446,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.22% increase [6][82] - The strategic value of rare earths is being reassessed due to export controls on medium and heavy rare earths, which are expected to lead to a more concentrated supply structure [84] Lithium Market Dynamics - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has shown signs of recovery, with a current price of 62,300 yuan per ton, up 2.05% [43][44] - Lithium hydroxide prices have slightly decreased by 0.74%, currently at 60,100 yuan per ton, while lithium concentrate prices increased by 3.80% to $653 per ton [44][70] Antimony and Other Metals - Antimony remains in a tight supply situation, with domestic antimony ingot prices at 185,500 yuan per ton, down 2.11% [6][8] - Tin prices are experiencing fluctuations, with SHFE tin prices at 267,300 yuan per ton, down 0.60%, while LME tin prices increased by 0.61% to $33,770 per ton [6][8]

行业研究丨深度报告丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 长夜渐明，星图已显——能源金属行业 2025 年 度中期投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 全球有色资源分布不均，世界格局风云变化，战略资源成为各国兵家必争之地，战略金属价值 重估仍将继续，供给仍为核心线索。不同于过去以交易宏观需求复苏为主的有色轮动顺序，今 年以来战略金属走出了相较于有色指数及基本金属较强的超额收益，供给成为核心催化主线。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 王筱茜 许红远 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490520080021 SFC：BQT626 肖百桓 周相君 SAC：S0490522080001 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 31 金属、非金属与采矿 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 长夜渐明，星图已显——能源金属行业 2] 2025 年 度中期投资策略 [Table_Summary2] 战略金属价值重估，供给为核心主线 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices may reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, up from approximately $3,300, driven by U.S. policies and limited supply [1] - Hedge funds have increased bullish bets on Chinese stocks due to optimistic sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly among U.S. hedge funds [1] - Goldman Sachs expects Germany's defense spending to rise from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3% by 2027, benefiting the defense industry significantly [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that if interest rate cuts do not materialize, short-term U.S. Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to a lack of supporting economic data [3] - Bank of America reports that global investors are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook [5] - BlackRock notes that recent U.S.-China trade talks have yielded significant progress, which is expected to boost confidence in Chinese markets [4] Group 3 - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce indicates that tariffs may initially raise U.S. inflation before negatively impacting economic growth, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - Capital Economics predicts that OPEC+'s strategic shift will continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices until the end of 2026 [8] - BMO Capital Markets highlights an increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in June due to disappointing employment data [9] Group 4 - CITIC Securities suggests that strengthened export controls on strategic metals may lead to a revaluation of these assets, with prices expected to rise [7] - CITIC Securities also notes a recovery in risk appetite, with a focus on high-growth sectors and new themes following the release of Q1 reports [8] - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of implementing monetary policies introduced in May, while considering both domestic and U.S. economic factors [9] Group 5 - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the passenger vehicle sector maintaining high growth in Q2, driven by demand from trade-in policies and consumer incentives [10] - Huatai Securities anticipates a structural recovery in the home appliance sector in Q2, supported by domestic demand and export recovery [12] - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on "technology narrative" opportunities in the A-share market, alongside stable dividend-paying sectors [13]

白酒龙头需求景气有望触底回升 上周五，三大股指盘中震荡下探，创业板指一度跌超1%，科创50指数跌约2%。截至收盘，沪指跌0.3% 报3342点，深证成指跌0.69%报10126.83点，创业板指跌0.87%报2011.77点，科创50指数跌1.96%，上证 50指数逆市涨0.17%，沪深北三市合计成交12225亿元，较此前一日减少近1000亿元。行业方面，半导 体、零售、传媒、汽车、券商、地产、石油等板块走低，纺织服装、银行、电力、酿酒等板块拉升， ST板块逆市活跃。 中信证券表示，资金风险偏好回升，围绕行业高景气度主题以及新概念主题进行展开，建议优先配置一 季报表现出众的行业主题方向。市场对美国关税的情绪影响反映已较为充分，随着美国与多个国家的关 税谈判逐步展开，市场风险偏好逐步回升。国内维护楼市和股市的政策持续出台对市场预期托底，随着 一季报发布完毕，市场进入一个较为主题躁动的时期。从主题环境来看，综合流动性指标和市场风格特 征，市场在一季报高景气的行业主题上持续布局，并对新的主题概念表现更强的偏好。 今日投资机会解析 战略金属或迎价值重估 5月9日，国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室组织商务部等部门召开打击 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its fluctuations in the medium term, with accelerated style rotation, supported by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - China's export focus has successfully shifted towards ASEAN and EU markets, leading to stable export growth despite basic economic downward expectations [1] - The market may experience a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" in May [1] Group 2 - A-share market is experiencing accelerated rotation, with a rebound in financing activity and a shift towards small and mid-cap growth stocks [2] - The combination of policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations supports risk appetite, while structural market conditions are expected to prevail [2] - Key internal certainty clues include potential benefits for large-cap stocks and public utilities from new public fund regulations, and opportunities in sectors like military electronics and renewable energy equipment [2] Group 3 - Strategic metals are likely to undergo a value reassessment due to increased export control measures and the importance of these resources in the current international political context [3] - The crackdown on smuggling and export of strategic minerals is deemed urgent and significant for national security and development interests [3] - Prices of strategic metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony are expected to rise, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the strategic metals sector [3]