[Table_Summary] 1、【策略研究】：中观景气延续分化，元旦文旅景气显著增长，出入境需求增长亮眼；科技硬件、 化工/有色等周期资源品延续涨价；地产耐用品景气磨底。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 国泰海通晨报 2026 年 01 月 08 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 方奕(分析师) 021-38031658 fangyi2@gtht.com S0880520120005 陶前陈(研究助理) 0755-23976164 taoqianchen@gtht.com S0880125070014 张逸飞(分析师) 021-38038662 zhangyifei@gtht.com S0880524080008 策略观察：《元旦文旅景气增长，科技周期延续涨价》2026-01- 07 元旦文旅景气增长，科技周期延续涨价。上周（12.29-01.04）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1）元旦旅游出行景气同比改 ...

报告导读： 中观景气延续分化，受供给受限影响，化工 / 有色等资源品价格出现明显上 涨， AI 产业趋势下，电子产业景气偏强；旅游景气边际改善，内需消费复苏仍待观察。 周期资源品价格上涨，科技硬件景气延续。 上周（ 12.22-12.28 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）周期行业局部出现供需紧张，基础化工、电新原料 以及工业金属价格大幅上涨，主因供给受限，下游需求则表现较强。 2 ） AI 产业趋势延续，国内电子产业需求仍受到明显拉动，存储价格环比继续上涨， 11 月 PCB 出口增速延续高位。 3 ）服务消费景气边际改善，上海迪士尼拥挤度延续高位，受封关影响，海南旅游价格指数环比提升；年末生猪价格环比企 稳上涨。中央经济工作会议提出"深入实施提振消费专项行动"，展望 2026 ，消费在供给端和需求端的政策空间存在超预期可能。 下游消费：旅游景气延续高位，生猪价格上涨。 1 ）服务消费： 上海迪士尼乐园拥挤度指数环比 -0.2% ，同比 +29.4% ，游乐场拥挤度延续高位 ； 12.15-12.21 海南旅游价格指数环比 +2.5% ，封关带动海南旅游景气环比显著提升。 2 ）地产： 30 大中城市商 ...

Market Overview - Overall asset performance shows commodities outperforming equities, with the Korean stock market leading gains[4] - MSCI global index increased by 0.6%, but growth momentum has significantly slowed compared to previous weeks[5] - The yield curve for Chinese bonds is steepening, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, while U.S. bonds are experiencing a "bull steepening" trend[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - 10 out of 13 major commodities recorded price increases, with COMEX silver rising by 101.9% year-to-date[7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.5%, with the euro and pound appreciating by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively; the dollar has depreciated by 8.8% since the beginning of the year[7] Consumer and Industrial Insights - Service consumption has improved year-on-year, with Shanghai Disneyland's visitor index up by 75% compared to last year[10] - Real estate transactions in major cities have seen significant declines, with new home sales down by 32.5% year-on-year[30] Financial Sector Developments - As of November 2025, the total net asset value of public funds reached 36 trillion yuan, with equity funds increasing by 1.55%[24] - The performance evaluation of the investment banking sector is shifting towards enhancing investor experience[23] Company-Specific Highlights - Traffic Bank's net profit growth is projected at 2.3% for 2025, with a target price adjustment to 8.58 yuan based on a 0.72x PB valuation[34] - Didi's EBITA is expected to be 46.0 billion yuan in 2025, with a target market value of 234.7 billion yuan[39]

Macro Analysis - The 2025 Q3 monetary policy execution report affirms the resilience of the domestic economy and alleviates concerns about domestic inflation and global economic recession. The report suggests that monetary policy may increase its easing efforts marginally due to a slowdown in economic growth [1] - The report emphasizes the need for "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in monetary policy, indicating a potential increase in the central bank's bond-buying operations in the secondary market [1] - There is a focus on the implementation of policies to support personal credit repair, which will be crucial for credit policy [1] Bond Market Analysis - In Q3 2025, major market indices saw an increase, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 9.8%. The total scale of convertible bonds held by funds increased by 43.79 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [2] - The electric power equipment sector saw significant increases in convertible bond holdings, with the average yield of convertible bond funds at 13.67%, which is weaker than the Wind All A Index but stronger than the China Convertible Bond Index [2] Industry Research - The electronic communication industry is expected to benefit from optimistic AI computing power trends, with leading companies having secure valuations. The report highlights the growth potential in the storage and semiconductor sectors [4] - The report indicates that both North American and domestic computing power markets are likely to continue benefiting from these trends [4] Company Research - For Jin Hong Gas (688106.SH), the report projects a decline in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected profits of 168 million yuan (down 43.3%), 260 million yuan (down 32.1%), and 350 million yuan (down 22.2%) respectively. The company is expected to benefit from the steady progress of large on-site gas production projects [5] - Guanggang Gas (688548.SH) maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduces a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 299 million yuan, 378 million yuan, and 472 million yuan respectively. The company is well-positioned in the electronic bulk and helium gas sectors [7] - He Yuan Gas (002971.SZ) also maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and adds a forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 102 million yuan, 111 million yuan, and 121 million yuan respectively, focusing on the development of a centralized production base for electronic gases and chemicals [8] - Xingyuan Materials (300568.SZ) reports a year-on-year decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 172 million yuan (down 69.6%), 422 million yuan (down 38.9%), and 606 million yuan respectively. The company remains optimistic about its future as a leader in the lithium battery separator industry [9]

Summary of Zhongtung High-Tech Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongtung High-Tech - **Industry**: Tungsten and Hard Alloy Products Key Points Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Zhongtung High-Tech achieved a revenue of 12.755 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.39% [4] - Total profit reached 1.09 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year, with net profit at 846 million yuan, a 20.77% increase [4] - Earnings per share increased to 0.38 yuan, up by 0.04 yuan [4] Revenue Growth by Product Segment - Cutting tools revenue grew by 16% to 2.738 billion yuan [7] - Other hard alloys revenue increased by 21% to 3.1 billion yuan [7] - Refractory metals revenue exceeded 2 billion yuan, up 15% [7] - Concentrates and powder products saw a nearly 30% increase, exceeding 4 billion yuan [7] Profitability and Cost Management - Despite revenue growth, gross margins for most products remained stable or slightly declined due to rising raw material prices and insufficient terminal demand [7] - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a significant improvement in cash flow, with operational cash flow expected to turn positive by year-end [8] Business Structure Optimization - Zhongtung High-Tech has optimized its business structure by focusing on core products like micro-drills and CNC blades while reducing the scale of trade operations [6] - The company is advancing its mining restructuring efforts, having completed the delivery of Shizhouyuan and is awaiting shareholder approval for further transactions [6] Price Adjustments and Market Strategy - Hard alloy products have undergone four price increases since May 2025, with future adjustments planned based on market conditions and cost changes [10] - The company aims to maintain profitability through strategic pricing and cost management [10] Subsidiary Performance - Subsidiaries such as Shizhu Yuan and Jingzhou Company reported significant profit growth, with Jingzhou achieving over 110% increase [9] - However, Zhuzuan Company experienced a profit decline of approximately 40% [9] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Jingzhou Company leads in the PCB tool market with over 500 patents and high levels of automation in production [11] - The company is expanding its capacity, expecting to reach an average monthly production of 80 million units by the end of October 2025 [12] Demand Drivers in the PCB Tool Industry - The surge in demand for drill bits is driven by increased hardness of PCB materials used in AI-related products and changes in drilling habits [13] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued high prices for raw materials and is preparing for potential market fluctuations in the fourth quarter [24] - Zhongtung High-Tech is also exploring strategic acquisitions to consolidate its market position and enhance operational efficiency [33] Regulatory Environment - The company is closely monitoring export control policies and their implications, maintaining a cautious approach to international trade amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [34] Additional Insights - The company is committed to technological innovation and quality management, which has established its reputation in the high-end market [28] - Zhongtung High-Tech is focused on long-term partnerships with clients rather than short-term price adjustments to navigate market volatility [21]

Market Overview - The overall A-share market showed positive performance with the Wind All A Index rising by 1.64% to 6060.82 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.45% to 3825.76 points [7] - The hard technology sector, represented by the Sci-Tech 50 Index, outperformed with an increase of 8.59% to 1247.86 points, indicating strong investor interest in this area [7] - The market saw a total trading volume of 25,788.42 billion yuan, an increase of 1,185.07 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [8] Company Dynamics - Bilibili reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 209 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss in the same period last year. The company achieved a revenue of 14.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [34] - Kingmed Diagnostics (603882.SH) faced a decline in revenue of 22.78% year-on-year, with a net loss of 85 million yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily due to external environmental impacts and credit impairment losses [37][39] - Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) announced an employee stock ownership plan, aiming to incentivize up to 5,437 core employees and business leaders, with a total estimated cost of 1.06 billion yuan [41] Industry Trends - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is shifting towards high-quality competition, with the China Photovoltaic Industry Association advocating against price competition below cost [26] - The semiconductor industry is witnessing significant developments, with NVIDIA launching the Spectrum-XGS Ethernet technology to enhance data center capabilities and Intel initiating the licensing of semiconductor glass substrate technology [28][32] - The smart computing sector in China is expected to grow by over 40% in 2025, driven by the rapid development of artificial intelligence and the establishment of regional computing platforms [19][20]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the North American cloud computing industry, particularly major players like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, and their capital expenditure (CapEx) related to AI and cloud services [1][2][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capital Expenditure Growth**: North American cloud providers are expected to exceed $366 billion in total capital expenditure in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 47%, driven primarily by Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon [1][2]. - **Google's Investment**: Google raised its 2025 CapEx guidance from $75 billion to $85 billion, a 62% increase year-on-year, with further growth anticipated in 2026 [2][4]. - **Meta's Strategic Goals**: Meta aims for "super intelligence" and has established a dedicated lab for this purpose, indicating a potential CapEx nearing $100 billion by 2026, driven by five key business opportunities [1][7]. - **Microsoft and Amazon's Commitment**: Microsoft plans to maintain over $30 billion in CapEx for the next fiscal quarter, while Amazon expects to sustain its investment levels in the second half of 2025 [2][4]. - **AI Industry Resilience**: Despite concerns over the delayed release of OpenAI's GPT-5, the AI industry continues to innovate, with significant advancements from companies like Anthropic and Xai [1][10]. Additional Important Content - **PCB Market Volatility**: The PCB sector has experienced significant fluctuations due to discussions around COVF/SOP technology paths and increased CapEx expectations from cloud providers [1][14]. - **ASIC Supply Chain Outlook**: The ASIC supply chain is expected to see significant demand elasticity by 2026, with emerging companies like New Feng Peng Ding and Dongshan Jingwang poised to enter the market [3][16]. - **Technological Innovations in PCB**: Innovations such as cobalt processes are being explored to simplify PCB structures, although challenges like heat dissipation and chip warping remain [3][17]. - **Market Trends and Future Projections**: The AI industry's growth is projected to continue, with hardware demand expected to rise significantly by 2026, despite short-term market fluctuations [11][15]. - **Investment Opportunities**: There is a recommendation to monitor potential market pullbacks to capitalize on investment opportunities, particularly in the PCB sector and traditional NB chain stocks [12][15][24]. Conclusion - The North American cloud computing industry is poised for substantial growth in capital expenditures, particularly in AI-related investments. Major players are demonstrating strong confidence in the future of AI, with ongoing innovations and strategic investments shaping the landscape. The PCB and ASIC markets are also highlighted as areas of potential growth and investment opportunity.

Summary of Industrial Fulian Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on Industrial Fulian, a key player in the AI server market within the overseas computing power industry chain, which is currently experiencing a phase of performance realization and valuation recovery [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Server Market Growth**: Industrial Fulian's cloud computing business, particularly AI servers, is identified as the core growth engine, with over 50% market share in Q1 2025. The company is expected to ship over 3,500 units in Q2 2025, driven by increased shipments of NVIDIA GPU200 [2][6]. - **Revenue Projections**: For Q2 2025, the expected shipment of basic 200 products is between 3,500 and 4,000 units, with a unit price of 3.5 million USD. This could lead to a revenue of approximately 80 billion to 100 billion RMB, marking a significant increase compared to the previous year [2][8]. - **Profitability Forecast**: The company anticipates a net profit close to 30 billion RMB in 2025, with potential growth to 40 billion RMB in 2026 due to increased shipments and the rising share of 800G communication products [4][11]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Industrial Fulian is projected to have over 20% upside potential in 2025, with a target price exceeding 5,510 RMB, supported by strong fundamentals and valuation recovery [3]. Additional Important Points - **Capacity Expansion**: The company is actively expanding its production capacity, including leasing two factories in Houston, Texas, with capital expenditures expected to grow over 20%, primarily for AI server production [2][9]. - **Key Clients**: Major clients include Amazon and Microsoft, both showing strong growth in AI spending. The company is also expanding its customer base to include new large-scale cloud service providers (CSPs) [4][10]. - **Risks to Monitor**: Potential risks include slower-than-expected AI industry growth, tariff impacts due to US-China relations, and intensified competition affecting market demand [12]. Conclusion - Industrial Fulian is positioned for significant growth in the AI server market, supported by strong client relationships and ongoing capacity expansion. However, investors should remain vigilant regarding potential risks that could impact performance.

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the trend of central banks increasing gold purchases as part of a de-dollarization strategy, with average annual gold demand from central banks rising from 509.1 tons (2011-2021) to 1072.3 tons (2022-2024) [8][9] - It highlights the significant deviation between GDP share and foreign exchange reserve share for China and the US, indicating a potential investment opportunity in gold as a reserve asset [8] Energy and Electronics - The report notes that the penetration of silicon carbide (SiC) in new energy vehicles has increased, with SiC MOSFETs accounting for 18.6% of the main drive modules in new energy passenger cars from January to May 2025 [10] - It mentions that the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.31 million units in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.9% [10] - The report indicates a stable growth in the number of charging stations, with an increase of 158.3 thousand units from January to May 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.2% [11] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI applications, with a projected CAGR of 7% for 300mm wafer capacity from 2024 to 2028 [14] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Micron, which reported a revenue of $9.3 billion for FY25Q3, a year-on-year increase of 37% [15] - It recommends focusing on semiconductor manufacturing companies such as SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor due to the expected growth in AI-related demand [14] Real Estate - The real estate sector is facing a continued downturn, with a significant drop in sales and investment, as indicated by a year-on-year decrease in new housing transactions in 30 cities [19][20] - The report suggests that the current low market sentiment may open up opportunities for investment in real estate stocks, particularly in companies like China Resources Land and Beike [19] Food and Beverage - The report indicates that the price of Moutai has stabilized, and the overall performance of the liquor industry is expected to improve as companies focus on inventory reduction and market health [23] - It highlights the positive outlook for the beer and snack sectors due to seasonal demand increases, recommending companies like Yanjing Beer and Ajinomoto [24] Media and Internet - The media sector has seen a rise in the number of game approvals, with 147 domestic and 11 imported titles approved in June, marking a year-to-date high [26] - The report notes the strong performance of AI applications in various sectors, including gaming and advertising, suggesting investment in companies like Tencent and ByteDance [28]