Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the power equipment sector [4][15]. Core Insights - North American CSP companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with Meta's Q4 2025 capex reaching $22.14 billion and projected to rise to $115-135 billion in 2026. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are also increasing their capex, indicating a robust demand for AI training and inference [3][12][13]. - Domestic AI applications are entering a commercialization inflection point, with companies like Tencent and Alibaba launching significant promotional campaigns to stimulate user engagement and application usage [12][13]. - The AI industry is transitioning from a focus on computational power to a collaborative expansion involving infrastructure and application ecosystems, benefiting sectors such as servers, power equipment, data centers, and liquid cooling systems [14]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The report suggests focusing on the IDC sector, highlighting companies like Kehua Data and Jinpan Technology due to their growth potential. It also recommends monitoring high-voltage circuit breakers and power supply sectors, with specific mentions of companies like Liangxin and Sunshine Power [4][14]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic data center sector is beginning to expand and upgrade, with significant opportunities in direct current power supply equipment. The power equipment sector is expected to benefit from these trends [4][17]. - The report highlights that the State Grid's fixed asset investment grew by over 35% year-on-year in January, indicating strong infrastructure investment [18][19]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, including Kehua Data, Liangxin, and Sunshine Power, with specific EPS and PE ratios outlined for 2024 to 2026 [7][16].

轻工制造 | 造纸 北交所|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 15 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 胡文瀚 huwenhan@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | | | | | | 53.00 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年 / 最 | 高 | | | | | | 低 | | 内 | 最 | | 一 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 7,751.25 | | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | 7,694.16 | | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | 146.25 | | | | | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 22.03 | | | | | | | | | ...

Core Insights - Despite a 20% decline in exports to the US, China's exports still grew by 5.5% in 2025, driven by rapid growth in high-tech products such as electronic intermediate goods, automobiles, and industrial robots [3] - The import growth rate fell to 0%, resulting in a trade surplus that exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, providing positive support for economic growth [3] - For 2026, China's exports are expected to maintain resilience with a projected growth rate of around 5%, supported by increased openness, stable exports to the US, and advantages in AI and "new three items" products [3] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries in January included Media (29.0%), Defense and Military (24.0%), and Computer (22.8%), while the bottom performers were Banking (-1.8%) and Food & Beverage (-1.3%) [2] - The overall performance of the media sector showed a remarkable annual increase of 63.7%, indicating strong market dynamics [2] Company-Specific Insights First Pacific (00142.HK) - First Pacific has a strong focus on the Asia-Pacific market, with four main business segments: consumer food, telecommunications, infrastructure, and natural resources [7] - In 2024, the company reported revenues of $10.057 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.31%, while net profit increased by 19.77% to $600 million, showcasing robust profitability [7][8] - The company is expected to see net profits of $649 million, $708 million, and $767 million from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 8.2%, 8.9%, and 8.4% respectively [8] Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) - Dongpeng Beverage anticipates a revenue increase of 31.07% to 33.34% in 2025, with projected revenues between 20.76 billion and 21.12 billion yuan [10] - The company expects net profits to rise by 30.46% to 37.97%, with estimates ranging from 4.34 billion to 4.59 billion yuan [10] - The company is actively expanding its product lines and overseas markets, which is expected to contribute to significant profit growth in the coming years [11][12] Dingjie Intelligence (300378.SZ) - Dingjie Intelligence was recognized as one of the top 20 data intelligence service providers in China, indicating its leadership in AI manufacturing [9] - Revenue projections for Dingjie from 2025 to 2027 are set at 2.438 billion, 2.608 billion, and 2.841 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 180 million, 204 million, and 263 million yuan respectively [9]

Group 1: Strategy Research - The report highlights a differentiated macroeconomic environment, with significant growth in tourism and cultural sectors during the New Year period, alongside notable increases in inbound and outbound travel demand [2][9] - The technology hardware and certain industrial raw materials continue to see price increases, driven by trends in the AI industry and tight supply in chemical and non-ferrous materials [2][9] - The real estate and durable goods sectors remain under pressure, with weak demand in the real estate construction chain [2][9] Group 2: Tourism and Travel - During the 2026 New Year holiday (January 1-3), daily cross-regional personnel flow in China reached 198 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with daily inbound and outbound travel averaging 2.205 million, up 28.6% year-on-year [3][10] - Domestic daily tourism participation and revenue increased by 5.2% and 6.3% respectively compared to the 2024 New Year holiday, with average spending per person rising by 1.1% [3][10] - The improvement in tourism demand is attributed to optimized service supply and the implementation of vacation policies, as well as enhanced inbound travel policies [3][10] Group 3: Downstream Consumption - The price of live pigs increased by 3.9% as of December 28, driven by improved downstream demand due to New Year stocking [4][11] - In 30 major cities, the transaction area of commercial housing decreased by 26.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 31.8%, 14.0%, and 45.5% respectively [4][11] - The average daily retail of passenger cars fell by 12% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in the automotive circulation industry [4][11] Group 4: Technology and Manufacturing - The electronic industry remains buoyant, with AI infrastructure investments driving growth; as of January 2, the average spot prices for DRAM memory (DDR3, DDR4, DDR5) increased by 2.6%, 6.0%, and 7.1% respectively [5][12] - Chemical raw material prices are showing mixed performance, with PX prices rising by 6.4% while PTA prices fell by 0.3%; lithium carbonate prices increased by 5.9% due to supply concerns [5][12] - Coal prices stabilized with a 0.9% increase, while industrial metal prices continued to rise due to supply disruptions and expectations of interest rate cuts [5][12] Group 5: Company Announcements - The report discusses Zhongxin Co., Ltd. (603091) planning to establish a wholly-owned manufacturing base in the U.S., with an investment of up to $36 million for a project producing 20,000 tons of pulp molded tableware annually [13][14] - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting EPS of 3.32, 5.65, and 7.37 yuan for 2025-2027, and sets a target price of 99.68 yuan, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [13][14] - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain resilience and expanding its overseas production capacity to adapt to market demands [14][15]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The mid-term economic performance shows divergence, with significant price increases in chemical and non-ferrous resources due to supply constraints, while the AI industry continues to drive strong demand in the electronics sector [1] - Service consumption is showing marginal improvement, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index remaining high and the Hainan tourism price index increasing by 2.5% week-on-week due to border closure impacts [2] Group 2: Consumer Trends - In the real estate sector, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 30.5% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 38.2%, 27.0%, and 32.7% respectively [2] - The average daily retail of passenger cars decreased by 11% year-on-year, although the decline has narrowed [2] Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The electronics industry remains robust, driven by AI infrastructure investment, with DRAM prices increasing by 12.4% for DDR4 and 5.3% for DDR5 week-on-week [3] - Chemical raw material prices have significantly increased, with PX and PTA prices rising by 0.5% and 7.4% respectively, attributed to supply constraints [3] Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Domestic and international flight operations saw a slight increase of 0.3% and a decrease of 2.6% respectively, indicating a decline in long-distance travel demand [4] - Nationwide highway truck traffic and railway freight volume decreased by 0.5% and 6.1% respectively, reflecting weakened logistics demand [4]

Market Overview - Overall asset performance shows commodities outperforming equities, with the Korean stock market leading gains[4] - MSCI global index increased by 0.6%, but growth momentum has significantly slowed compared to previous weeks[5] - The yield curve for Chinese bonds is steepening, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, while U.S. bonds are experiencing a "bull steepening" trend[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - 10 out of 13 major commodities recorded price increases, with COMEX silver rising by 101.9% year-to-date[7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.5%, with the euro and pound appreciating by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively; the dollar has depreciated by 8.8% since the beginning of the year[7] Consumer and Industrial Insights - Service consumption has improved year-on-year, with Shanghai Disneyland's visitor index up by 75% compared to last year[10] - Real estate transactions in major cities have seen significant declines, with new home sales down by 32.5% year-on-year[30] Financial Sector Developments - As of November 2025, the total net asset value of public funds reached 36 trillion yuan, with equity funds increasing by 1.55%[24] - The performance evaluation of the investment banking sector is shifting towards enhancing investor experience[23] Company-Specific Highlights - Traffic Bank's net profit growth is projected at 2.3% for 2025, with a target price adjustment to 8.58 yuan based on a 0.72x PB valuation[34] - Didi's EBITA is expected to be 46.0 billion yuan in 2025, with a target market value of 234.7 billion yuan[39]

Macro Analysis - The 2025 Q3 monetary policy execution report affirms the resilience of the domestic economy and alleviates concerns about domestic inflation and global economic recession. The report suggests that monetary policy may increase its easing efforts marginally due to a slowdown in economic growth [1] - The report emphasizes the need for "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in monetary policy, indicating a potential increase in the central bank's bond-buying operations in the secondary market [1] - There is a focus on the implementation of policies to support personal credit repair, which will be crucial for credit policy [1] Bond Market Analysis - In Q3 2025, major market indices saw an increase, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 9.8%. The total scale of convertible bonds held by funds increased by 43.79 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [2] - The electric power equipment sector saw significant increases in convertible bond holdings, with the average yield of convertible bond funds at 13.67%, which is weaker than the Wind All A Index but stronger than the China Convertible Bond Index [2] Industry Research - The electronic communication industry is expected to benefit from optimistic AI computing power trends, with leading companies having secure valuations. The report highlights the growth potential in the storage and semiconductor sectors [4] - The report indicates that both North American and domestic computing power markets are likely to continue benefiting from these trends [4] Company Research - For Jin Hong Gas (688106.SH), the report projects a decline in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected profits of 168 million yuan (down 43.3%), 260 million yuan (down 32.1%), and 350 million yuan (down 22.2%) respectively. The company is expected to benefit from the steady progress of large on-site gas production projects [5] - Guanggang Gas (688548.SH) maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduces a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 299 million yuan, 378 million yuan, and 472 million yuan respectively. The company is well-positioned in the electronic bulk and helium gas sectors [7] - He Yuan Gas (002971.SZ) also maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and adds a forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 102 million yuan, 111 million yuan, and 121 million yuan respectively, focusing on the development of a centralized production base for electronic gases and chemicals [8] - Xingyuan Materials (300568.SZ) reports a year-on-year decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 172 million yuan (down 69.6%), 422 million yuan (down 38.9%), and 606 million yuan respectively. The company remains optimistic about its future as a leader in the lithium battery separator industry [9]

Summary of Zhongtung High-Tech Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongtung High-Tech - **Industry**: Tungsten and Hard Alloy Products Key Points Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Zhongtung High-Tech achieved a revenue of 12.755 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.39% [4] - Total profit reached 1.09 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year, with net profit at 846 million yuan, a 20.77% increase [4] - Earnings per share increased to 0.38 yuan, up by 0.04 yuan [4] Revenue Growth by Product Segment - Cutting tools revenue grew by 16% to 2.738 billion yuan [7] - Other hard alloys revenue increased by 21% to 3.1 billion yuan [7] - Refractory metals revenue exceeded 2 billion yuan, up 15% [7] - Concentrates and powder products saw a nearly 30% increase, exceeding 4 billion yuan [7] Profitability and Cost Management - Despite revenue growth, gross margins for most products remained stable or slightly declined due to rising raw material prices and insufficient terminal demand [7] - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a significant improvement in cash flow, with operational cash flow expected to turn positive by year-end [8] Business Structure Optimization - Zhongtung High-Tech has optimized its business structure by focusing on core products like micro-drills and CNC blades while reducing the scale of trade operations [6] - The company is advancing its mining restructuring efforts, having completed the delivery of Shizhouyuan and is awaiting shareholder approval for further transactions [6] Price Adjustments and Market Strategy - Hard alloy products have undergone four price increases since May 2025, with future adjustments planned based on market conditions and cost changes [10] - The company aims to maintain profitability through strategic pricing and cost management [10] Subsidiary Performance - Subsidiaries such as Shizhu Yuan and Jingzhou Company reported significant profit growth, with Jingzhou achieving over 110% increase [9] - However, Zhuzuan Company experienced a profit decline of approximately 40% [9] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Jingzhou Company leads in the PCB tool market with over 500 patents and high levels of automation in production [11] - The company is expanding its capacity, expecting to reach an average monthly production of 80 million units by the end of October 2025 [12] Demand Drivers in the PCB Tool Industry - The surge in demand for drill bits is driven by increased hardness of PCB materials used in AI-related products and changes in drilling habits [13] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued high prices for raw materials and is preparing for potential market fluctuations in the fourth quarter [24] - Zhongtung High-Tech is also exploring strategic acquisitions to consolidate its market position and enhance operational efficiency [33] Regulatory Environment - The company is closely monitoring export control policies and their implications, maintaining a cautious approach to international trade amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [34] Additional Insights - The company is committed to technological innovation and quality management, which has established its reputation in the high-end market [28] - Zhongtung High-Tech is focused on long-term partnerships with clients rather than short-term price adjustments to navigate market volatility [21]

Market Overview - The overall A-share market showed positive performance with the Wind All A Index rising by 1.64% to 6060.82 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.45% to 3825.76 points [7] - The hard technology sector, represented by the Sci-Tech 50 Index, outperformed with an increase of 8.59% to 1247.86 points, indicating strong investor interest in this area [7] - The market saw a total trading volume of 25,788.42 billion yuan, an increase of 1,185.07 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [8] Company Dynamics - Bilibili reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 209 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss in the same period last year. The company achieved a revenue of 14.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [34] - Kingmed Diagnostics (603882.SH) faced a decline in revenue of 22.78% year-on-year, with a net loss of 85 million yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily due to external environmental impacts and credit impairment losses [37][39] - Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) announced an employee stock ownership plan, aiming to incentivize up to 5,437 core employees and business leaders, with a total estimated cost of 1.06 billion yuan [41] Industry Trends - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is shifting towards high-quality competition, with the China Photovoltaic Industry Association advocating against price competition below cost [26] - The semiconductor industry is witnessing significant developments, with NVIDIA launching the Spectrum-XGS Ethernet technology to enhance data center capabilities and Intel initiating the licensing of semiconductor glass substrate technology [28][32] - The smart computing sector in China is expected to grow by over 40% in 2025, driven by the rapid development of artificial intelligence and the establishment of regional computing platforms [19][20]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the North American cloud computing industry, particularly major players like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, and their capital expenditure (CapEx) related to AI and cloud services [1][2][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capital Expenditure Growth**: North American cloud providers are expected to exceed $366 billion in total capital expenditure in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 47%, driven primarily by Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon [1][2]. - **Google's Investment**: Google raised its 2025 CapEx guidance from $75 billion to $85 billion, a 62% increase year-on-year, with further growth anticipated in 2026 [2][4]. - **Meta's Strategic Goals**: Meta aims for "super intelligence" and has established a dedicated lab for this purpose, indicating a potential CapEx nearing $100 billion by 2026, driven by five key business opportunities [1][7]. - **Microsoft and Amazon's Commitment**: Microsoft plans to maintain over $30 billion in CapEx for the next fiscal quarter, while Amazon expects to sustain its investment levels in the second half of 2025 [2][4]. - **AI Industry Resilience**: Despite concerns over the delayed release of OpenAI's GPT-5, the AI industry continues to innovate, with significant advancements from companies like Anthropic and Xai [1][10]. Additional Important Content - **PCB Market Volatility**: The PCB sector has experienced significant fluctuations due to discussions around COVF/SOP technology paths and increased CapEx expectations from cloud providers [1][14]. - **ASIC Supply Chain Outlook**: The ASIC supply chain is expected to see significant demand elasticity by 2026, with emerging companies like New Feng Peng Ding and Dongshan Jingwang poised to enter the market [3][16]. - **Technological Innovations in PCB**: Innovations such as cobalt processes are being explored to simplify PCB structures, although challenges like heat dissipation and chip warping remain [3][17]. - **Market Trends and Future Projections**: The AI industry's growth is projected to continue, with hardware demand expected to rise significantly by 2026, despite short-term market fluctuations [11][15]. - **Investment Opportunities**: There is a recommendation to monitor potential market pullbacks to capitalize on investment opportunities, particularly in the PCB sector and traditional NB chain stocks [12][15][24]. Conclusion - The North American cloud computing industry is poised for substantial growth in capital expenditures, particularly in AI-related investments. Major players are demonstrating strong confidence in the future of AI, with ongoing innovations and strategic investments shaping the landscape. The PCB and ASIC markets are also highlighted as areas of potential growth and investment opportunity.