四、复工供需：供给紧、需求起，支撑高价 今日 10:16，长江现货 1# 锡报价 414250-416250 元 / 吨，均价 415250 元 / 吨，单日大涨 11500 元，节后 强势冲高、高位运行格局明确，内外宏观共振 + 供需紧平衡推动锡价持续上行。 一、宏观重磅：美元走弱 + 美股走强，金属全线爆发 今日，美元指数跌至 97.57，人民币汇率强势突破 6.85 关口，以美元计价的工业金属全面受益，伦锡隔 夜暴涨 7.19%，内外盘联动拉升国内锡价；美股三大指数集体收涨，纳指大涨 1.26%，AI 算力、芯片封 装需求持续向好，锡作为电子产业链核心金属，需求预期大幅升温，叠加地缘局势升温，资金涌入大宗 商品避险，有色板块成为资金首选方向。 二、印尼突发：研究禁止精炼锡出口，供给端炸雷 今日最新消息，印尼官方明确表态，继锡矿出口禁令后，正在研究全面禁止精炼锡出口，推动本土深加 工，全球锡供给直接面临收缩预期；叠加缅甸矿供应偏紧、LME 锡库存持续走低，全球锡市供给短缺 已成定局，成为今日锡价暴涨核心导火索。 三、长江现货 1# 锡：强势拉涨，成交回暖 今日长江现货 1# 锡跟随期货大幅上调报价，高开高 ...

需求爆发与产能挤压的超级周期——存储、电子布、铜箔 20260223 超级周期指的是在需求刚性很强的情况下，导致景气持续时间较长的经济周期。 其形成主要有两个原因：一是需求端的爆发，例如存储芯片、PCB 战略材料 （尤其是电子布和铜箔）受益于 AI 算力的爆发式增长；二是供给端的滞后，由 于技术和设备等壁垒，产能有限。这种产能滞后会带来产能挤压，企业将有限 产能更多转向高附加值产品，从而引发持续且幅度超预期的涨价周期。 存储芯片、电子布和铜箔在供需方面有哪些特征？ 存储芯片从第四代升级到第五代，并向更高端的 HBM 升级。其建设周期为 2-3 年，加上良率爬坡，总交付周期约为 3 年。电子布从厚布转向普通薄布，再到 AI 电子布，其投产周期约为 1 年，但织布机订单周期已延长至两年以上，主要 供应商只有日本丰田。铜箔行业也面临类似情况，这些因素导致行业库存水平 HVRP 铜箔属于高壁垒产品，产能壁垒高，生产工艺和客户验证壁垒也 高，短期内难以快速扩张，预计今年至后年 HYRP 4 级铜箔供需缺口将 持续扩大。 国内头部铜箔公司已逐步进入与国际领先企业并驾齐驱的阶段，HBRP 四代铜箔订单充足，未来将逐步实现批 ...

CPONPO 行业加速落地，如何看待节后投资机会？ 20260223 摘要 AI 算力需求驱动 CPU 行业发展，英伟达 Rubin Ultra 对芯片带宽提出 更高要求，加速 CPO 技术应用，台积电 CPO 交换机良率提升至 30%， 为大规模量产奠定基础。 CPO 交换机通过高密度集成、节能和提高信号传输质量等优势，解决数 据中心算力瓶颈，能耗降低 20%-40%，成为未来发展趋势。 台湾和中国模块产业链已具备 CPU 大规模量产基础，2026-2027 年行 业加速落地，技术需求推动产业发展，产业链配置初步具备。 CPU 交换机由 ASIC 芯片和光模块构成，ASIC 负责信号处理，光引擎负 责电光信号转换，外置光源提供光信号，无源器件连接芯片与光纤。 中国企业在光引擎组装、外置光源和无源器件领域具有发展潜力，天孚 通信、源杰科技等有望受益于 CPU 量产推进。 英伟达 Quantum X 交换机光引擎系统成本占比超 50%，FAU 占比约 10%，未来封装环节可能转移至国内厂商，如天孚通信、新易盛。 英伟达新产品 Rubin Ultra 对 CPU 技术的发展有什么影响？ 英伟达新产品 Rubin ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the space computing industry chain, particularly on upstream and downstream core segments, indicating a positive investment outlook for the sector [8]. Core Insights - Space computing represents a new paradigm of deploying computational facilities in Earth's orbit, transforming the traditional "ground-based computing" into "space-based computing" by utilizing distributed orbital computing clusters [5][6]. - The advantages of space computing include the use of continuous solar energy and near-absolute zero cooling environments, which effectively address the energy and heat dissipation bottlenecks faced by ground data centers [6][7]. - The U.S. is leading the charge with technology companies driving advancements, while China is following a government-led approach with collaborative development across academia and industry [7][8]. Summary by Sections Space Computing Overview - Space computing is characterized by the deployment of computational infrastructure in orbit, leveraging radiation-resistant chips and inter-satellite laser communication to create distributed computing clusters [5][13]. - This model allows satellites to evolve from mere data relays to intelligent nodes, enabling real-time data processing and decision-making in orbit, significantly reducing transmission delays [6][16]. Market Dynamics - The rise of space computing is driven by the exponential growth in global computing demand, particularly under the influence of AI, while traditional data centers face significant energy and cooling challenges [6][24]. - The market for space computing is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with a recommendation to focus on key segments such as rocket and satellite manufacturing, laser communication, and space computing chip suppliers [8][24]. Competitive Landscape - Major players in the U.S. include SpaceX, which is developing large-scale space data centers, and other tech giants like Google and Amazon exploring space computing ecosystems [7][8]. - In China, significant projects are underway, including the Beijing GW-level space data center and the "Three-Body Computing Constellation" initiative, indicating a robust governmental push towards space computing [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the entire space computing industry chain, particularly focusing on core suppliers in rocket and satellite manufacturing, laser communication, and space photovoltaic suppliers [8][24]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include leading firms in laser communication and space photovoltaic technologies, as well as suppliers for SpaceX and space computing chips [8].

Core Viewpoint - The AI computing market is transitioning from a "technical monopoly" dominated by NVIDIA to a "rational competition" phase, as indicated by Arista Networks' CEO's statement about AMD's increasing presence in project selections [1][3][30]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A year ago, nearly 99% of AI clusters were built around NVIDIA, but now AMD is becoming the preferred accelerator in 20%-25% of projects, signaling a significant shift [1][6]. - The AI computing market is moving from a focus on "availability" to "value," as companies begin to consider cost-effectiveness in their decisions [7][12]. - The entry of AMD into the market is not a failure for NVIDIA but rather a re-evaluation of market dynamics, where NVIDIA's pricing power may be challenged as AMD proves to be a viable alternative [19][20]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - AMD's advantage lies not in outperforming NVIDIA in all metrics but in becoming a rational choice in specific applications, particularly in large-scale inference and cost-sensitive tasks [13][16]. - The introduction of AMD as a second option allows companies to optimize costs and mitigate risks associated with relying solely on one supplier [17][18]. - The competition is evolving into a slower, more patient process, where maintaining market share without sacrificing profit margins becomes crucial [21][22]. Group 3: Structural Changes - The capital market's reaction to NVIDIA's stock drop and AMD's rise reflects a long-term structural change rather than a short-term performance assessment [24][26]. - NVIDIA's current valuation assumes a prolonged monopoly, but emerging data suggests that this assumption may need to be reassessed as AMD gains traction [25][26]. - The AI computing development can be divided into two phases: the first being a "technical race" and the second an "economic competition," where the focus shifts to profitability as computing power becomes less scarce [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest 3.3 billion yuan in a new high-end printed circuit board (PCB) production project to meet the growing demand for high-performance computing servers and next-generation high-speed network switches, capitalizing on the AI computing boom [1][4]. Investment Details - The project aims to bid for approximately 66,700 square meters of land in Kunshan High-tech Zone, adjacent to the existing factory, with a construction period of 2 years [3][6]. - Total investment includes 2.7 billion yuan for land and fixed assets, and 600 million yuan for working capital, funded through self-owned or self-raised sources [3][6]. - Upon reaching full production, the project is expected to add 140,000 square meters of annual capacity, generating annual revenue of 3.05 billion yuan and a net profit of about 500 million yuan, with an after-tax internal rate of return of 13.9% and a payback period of 7.6 years, including the construction period [3][6]. Market Context - The global demand for AI server PCBs is surging, with Goldman Sachs predicting a compound annual growth rate of 140% from 2025 to 2027, and an increasing share of high-end products with over 30 layers [3][6]. - The company's strategic move aligns with the industry's trend towards high-end products, enhancing its capacity and optimizing product structure to strengthen its core supply capabilities and improve market share and profitability [3][6][7]. Strategic Importance - This project represents a significant step in the company's differentiation strategy, aimed at expanding high-end capacity and reinforcing its position in the high-end electronic manufacturing sector [4][7]. - The company has authorized management to adjust the total investment by up to 30% to enhance project adaptability [3][6].

Summary of Huanxu Electronics Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huanxu Electronics - **Industry**: Semiconductor packaging and testing, AI technology, data center solutions Key Points and Arguments Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - Huanxu Electronics benefits from strategic adjustments by ASE Group, collaborating with leading packaging manufacturers to advance packaging technology, particularly in AI computing [2][5] - The company has established a close partnership with Meta in the AI glasses sector, securing multiple new project orders, with revenue expected to grow rapidly starting in 2026 [2][9] Business Segments and Growth Opportunities - **Data Center Business**: - Focused on three main areas: computing boards, optical communication, and power supply solutions [5][10] - Successfully entered AWS's AI accelerator card business, with projected orders exceeding $500 million by 2026 [2][5] - Plans to expand into ASIC mainboard PCBA segments, enhancing value per card and cabinet [10][11] - **Optical Communication**: - Huanxu is enhancing its technical capabilities through self-research and acquisitions, notably integrating with Guangchuanglian to strengthen its position in optical modules and components [2][12] - Launched a self-developed 1.6T silicon optical module product, with plans for rapid growth in this sector [12][13] - **Power Supply Solutions**: - Anticipates collaboration with ASE Group to develop next-generation backplane power supply solutions by 2027-2028, which could significantly boost revenue [8][14] Financial Projections - The company has raised its profit forecast, expecting a profit of 2.7 billion yuan in 2026, a 46% increase year-over-year, and 3.71 billion yuan in 2027, a 38% increase [4][15] - Continuous growth is expected through new business layouts, including Plugable optical modules and CPO segments [4][15] Market Position and Competitive Advantages - Huanxu aims to provide longer value chain solutions for top North American clients, leveraging its integration with ASE Group and Guangchuanglian [5][16] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI technologies and advanced packaging solutions, particularly in the context of new product launches from major clients like Google and Apple [9][16] Challenges and Responses - The company faces challenges in scaling production and process technology, particularly in CPO and NPO products, but is addressing these through strategic acquisitions and partnerships [20][21] - Supply chain pressures exist, but Huanxu is working with North American clients to ensure smooth operations and is developing its own supply chain capabilities [21][22] Future Outlook - Huanxu is actively seeking further acquisitions of small, technically proficient companies to enhance its capabilities and market reach, particularly in optical communication and server power supply sectors [26] - The company is optimistic about the AI data center market and anticipates significant growth in the coming years, driven by its strategic initiatives and partnerships [2][26] Additional Important Information - Huanxu's expansion plans include increasing production capacity in Vietnam and Chengdu, with specific targets set for 2026 [18] - The integration of Guangchuanglian is expected to enhance Huanxu's market position and accelerate growth, with projected revenue growth of at least 100% over the next three years [4][13]

www.ccxi.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 目录 | 核心观点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 行业基本面分析 | 2 | | 行业内企业信用表现 | 9 | | 结论 | 15 | | 附表 | 16 | 中诚信国际行业展望 中诚信国际 行业展望 中国电子设备行业 中国电子设备行业展望 预计 2026 年在政策托底、AI 算力赋能等积极因素与国际贸易政策 高频调整与核心材料涨价的挑战并存下，行业信用水平将保持稳 定。 中国电子设备行业的展望为稳定，中诚信国际认为未来 12~18 个月该行业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 | 行业 | 未来 个月展望 12~18 | | --- | --- | | 电子设备行业 | 稳定 | | 其中：家电 | 稳定 | | 计算机 | 稳定 | | 通讯设备 | 稳定提升 | | 智能消费设备 | 稳定弱化 | 核心观点 结论 14 联络人 作者 企业评级部 杨 锐 027-87339288-288 ryang@ccxi.com.cn 贾晓奇 027-87339288-276 xqjia@ccxi.com.cn 毛楚杰 027-87339288-211 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The demand for AI computing power is driving the optical fiber industry into an upward cycle, with prices for G.652.D bare optical fibers rising from less than 20 yuan per core kilometer and accelerating in 2026 due to a reversal in supply and demand dynamics [3][8] - The optical fiber industry is cyclical, closely linked to investments in the telecommunications sector, with each iteration of communication technology (3G, 4G, 5G) leading to increased demand for optical fibers [4][8] - The primary new demand is coming from the construction of AI data centers, leading to a global shortage of optical fibers, particularly as North American data center markets have surpassed telecommunications markets in size [4][20] Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Performance - The optical fiber market has seen a moderate price increase over the past six months, with a significant acceleration in 2026 due to supply-side capacity clearing and increased demand from AI data center construction [3][4] Section 2: Market Concentration - The optical fiber market is highly concentrated, with the top four manufacturers (Corning, Yangtze Optical, Zhongtian Technology, and Hengtong Optic-Electric) holding over 50% market share, and the top ten companies exceeding 90% [4][11] Section 3: Supply Chain Constraints - The production of optical fiber preform, a critical material, faces rigid bottlenecks with an expansion cycle of about two years, leading to a mismatch between supply and demand in the optical fiber cable market [5][20] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The outlook for the optical fiber and cable industry is positive, with expectations for improved performance of related companies as optical fiber prices rise. Key recommendations include Zhongtian Technology, with additional attention to Yangtze Optical, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Longfly Fiber [5][20]

证券研究报告|行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 通信 光模块逻辑的背离与收敛 市场近期关于 CPO（共封装光学）技术将快速取代可插拔光模块的过 度担忧，背离了产业发展的基本面，在未来两至三年，乃至更长时间 内，可插拔光模块仍将是数据中心光互连的主流解决方案。市场担忧 和筹码结构集中需时间消化，长期来看市场终将回归业绩基本面主导 的共识。 【预期差纠偏：市场"焦虑"的起源与误读】 英伟达宣布将于今年规模部署 CPO 技术，市场普遍担忧 CPO 技术将 快速全面地取代可插拔光模块。这种过度担忧脱离了行业发展的基本 面，是对 CPO 技术的误读，导致市场估值出现非理性分化。 【筹码结构：过度集中与结构优化】 当前光模块板块筹码结构过于集中，需要时间进行结构优化与自我修 正。 增持（维持） 行业走势 -20% 4% 28% 52% 76% 100% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 通信 沪深300 作者 分析师 宋嘉吉 执业证书编号：S0680519010002 邮箱：songjiaji@gszq.com 分析师 黄瀚 执业证书编号：S0680519 ...