一、短期顺势调整，多方面问题集中消化：美对华关税威胁再加码，主要矛盾暂时切换回海外扰动，3月初和 月初是验证窗口。国内两会在即，会后是政策执行和效果观察期。科技产业趋势短期低性价比问题被广泛 论，顺势调整是健康的，等待产业催化再出发。 春节前，宏观环境不确定是A股的主要矛盾。春节后，宏观预期并未明显变化，DeepSeek突破，产业趋势变 成为主导A股反弹的主要矛盾。短期，担心短期行情性价比的投资者增加，同时国内政策、美对华关税都临 关键验证期，本周特朗普加码对华关税威胁，主要矛盾暂时切换回宏观变化，市场顺势调整。 短期调整，多方面问题集中消化：1. 3月初和4月初都是美对华关税具体实施的验证窗口，中美对弈势必会有 轮博弈，反复扰动。短期验证不确定性客观存在，资产价格只能消化。美国关税加码，衰退交易发酵，全球 要市场普遍出现了调整。2. "两会"召开在即，我们从目前已有的政策布局观察可能的线索。一方面，历史上 会整体延续上一年中央经济工作会议定调、并进一步细化具体举措，从2024年中央经济工作会议来看，刺激 需、两重两新、服务消费是重要抓手，两会可能延续；另一方面，2024年中央经济工作会议提及"开展人工 能+ ...

整体而言，中信证券认为四季度以来的政策对于稳定金融风险有直接作用，两会期间上述政策大幅超预 期可能性不大，但政策"不确定"走向"确定"，因此预计银行股仍将延续平稳向上走势。 政策面看，市场关注两会可能的超预期政策，预计财政金融方面关注发行特别国债对银行注资、利率和 准备金率政策等方面。 人民财讯3月3日电，中信证券研报表示，市场面看，上周银行板块走势平稳，波动率小于其他行业，市 场结构性行情快速演绎下，银行板块走势相对稳定。 ...

Market Overview - The banking sector exhibited stable performance last week, with lower volatility compared to other industries, indicating a relatively stable trend amidst rapid structural market changes [1] - The market is focused on potential unexpected policies from the Two Sessions, particularly regarding special government bonds for bank capital injection, interest rates, and reserve requirements [1] - Overall, policies since Q4 are expected to have a direct impact on stabilizing financial risks, with limited likelihood of significant policy surprises during the Two Sessions [1] Interbank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - As of March 1, 2025, 39 A-share listed banks have disclosed their interbank CD issuance plans for 2025 [2] - The total issuance plan for these banks reached 22.38 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 23.2%, with 22 banks increasing their issuance quotas [3] - Large banks showed a substantial increase in issuance quotas, while smaller banks remained relatively stable, with state-owned banks' quotas rising by 44.8% [3] Banking Sector Dynamics - The banking sector is experiencing a divergence in core asset and liability growth, driven by increased demand for active liabilities [4] - Non-bank deposits have significantly decreased due to regulatory impacts, with a total decline of 4.7 trillion yuan from December 2024 to January 2025 [4] - Loan and bond asset investments have been robust, with a notable increase in loans and bond investments in January 2025, reflecting a strong demand for credit [5] Market Performance - The banking sector outperformed the broader market last week, with the CITIC Bank Index only slightly declining by 0.35% compared to a 1.72% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [6] - The market is witnessing a stabilization in style, with a shift in focus towards bank stocks due to their defensive value amidst policy expectations [6] - The A/H premium for listed banks decreased by 0.53 percentage points to 33.51%, indicating a continued preference for H-shares over A-shares [6] Investment Outlook - The banking sector is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, supported by stable fundamentals and policy clarity [8] - Recommended investment strategies include selecting stocks with stable performance and dividend contributions, as well as those with high return on equity (ROE) and low valuation premiums [8]

任恒毅 白弘伟 田鹏 王涛 王子昂 市场成交保持高位，市场波动加大，主题交易有所降温，后续料将呈现三大特征：其一，"两会"即 将召开，政策影响因素渐强；其二，外部不确定性提升，叠加年报业绩期来临，市场对科技板块新 催化的反应料将有所钝化；其三，业绩确定性更强的核心资产、估值水平相对低位的消费相关主题 或将更受关注，建议关注悦己经济主题、半导体国产化主题、固态电池主题。从整体看，结构性的 主题行情已经充分演绎，交易量开始从高位震荡回落，市场料将沿着两会政策导向展开，或将向相 对估值水平较低、具有政策补贴预期的消费相关主题切换。从主题环境来看，综合流动性指标和市 场风格特征，预计科技相关主题热度或将回落。从催化因素分析上看，重点关注两会政策信号，尤 其是供需两端的结构性政策；贸易摩擦进一步升级背景下，国产半导体先进制程的扩产周期；产业 化进程愈发明确的固态电池赛道。从重点聚焦选择上，结合市场环境、近期催化、流动性指标研 判，建议关注悦己经济主题、半导体国产化主题、固态电池主题。最后，我们在报告中还梳理了相 关组合供投资者参考。 ▍ A股大势：业绩稳定性更高的核心资产关注度提升。 在经历了过去数周高度的结构化行情之 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's core assets are expected to experience a revival in the spring, driven by policy advancements in technology, supply-side reforms, and consumption potential optimization [1] - The "New Core Asset 30" portfolio is selected from technology, industrial, and consumer sectors, focusing on companies that are expected to outperform ordinary firms as confidence is restored [1] - The market is anticipated to shift towards consumption-related themes with lower valuation levels, especially in light of the upcoming "Two Sessions" and external uncertainties [2] Group 2 - The IPO normalization is seen as a necessary reform direction to balance financing and support the real economy, with expectations of increased IPO supply without burdening the market [4] - The RMB's equilibrium exchange rate is estimated to be between 7.3 and 7.4, with short-term fluctuations expected between 7.20 and 7.35, influenced by trade dynamics and capital flows [5] - The manufacturing sector shows positive signs with PMI data indicating a recovery, supported by consumption stimulus policies and infrastructure investments [6] Group 3 - The solid-state battery industry is projected to see significant developments, with expectations for small-scale production by 2027 and mass production by 2030, highlighting investment opportunities across the supply chain [15] - The high-end titanium material sector is expected to recover due to increased demand from the military and aerospace industries, with a favorable competitive landscape [21] - The liquid cooling market is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 38% from 2025 to 2027, driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand for efficient cooling solutions [23]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 03 02 年 月 日 建筑装饰 新疆煤化工蓬勃起势，重视产业链龙头投资机会。新疆对外是"一带一路" 桥头堡，对内是西部大开发等重大战略核心区域，持续受各类政策资源倾 行业走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-10 2025-02 建筑装饰 沪深300 作者 分析师 何亚轩 执业证书编号：S0680518030004 邮箱：heyaxuan@gszq.com 分析师 程龙戈 执业证书编号：S0680518010003 邮箱：chenglongge@gszq.com 分析师 廖文强 持续推荐国际工程与新疆煤化工，关注下周两会增量政策 本周核心观点：当前我们持续推荐国际工程与新疆煤化工投资机会：1） 国际工程：本周美乌领导人会面虽有波折，但俄乌停战大趋势明确。乌克 兰战后重建需求巨大（未来十年资金需求预计 5240 亿美元），乌方也表 示需要中国帮助重建，我国国际工程龙头竞争优势突出，且在当地已有业 务布局，有望重点受益；另一方面"一带一路"战略在中美博弈加剧背景 下有望加力推进，今年可能召 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards new stocks, suggesting flexibility and control over investment rhythm due to the current market conditions [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The new stock market is experiencing increased volatility and differentiation as it enters the later stages of an active cycle, with expectations of localized heat during the Two Sessions [1][11]. - The average increase of new stocks listed since 2024 is approximately -2.0%, with only about 36.4% achieving positive returns, indicating a decline in market performance compared to previous weeks [11][25]. - Despite some fluctuations, the interest in certain sectors, particularly those related to AI and robotics, remains high, suggesting ongoing investment opportunities [2][11]. Summary by Sections New Stock Performance - Last week, two new stocks were available for online subscription, with an average issuance price-earnings ratio of 17.09X [4][19]. - No new stocks were listed last week, but the average increase for new stocks since 2024 was -2.0%, with 36.4% showing gains [5][25]. - The North Exchange new stocks performed better, with an average increase of 13.2% and 84.0% achieving positive returns [25][26]. Upcoming New Stocks - This week, five new stocks are set to be listed, with three from the Growth Enterprise Market and two from the Main Board [3][31]. - The average issuance price-earnings ratio for upcoming new stocks is projected to be 14.4X, indicating a stable pricing environment [31][32]. - Specific stocks to watch include Yutian Guanjia, Huanjie Technology, and Yongjie New Materials, which are expected to attract attention due to their market positioning and growth potential [31][32][37]. Market Trends and Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a flexible investment strategy, focusing on sectors with policy support and potential for growth, such as robotics and AI [2][11]. - Investors are advised to monitor valuation ratios closely and consider stocks that have not yet fully realized their potential but have upcoming policy catalysts [2][11].

Investment Insights - The "Spring Rally" in 2025 is expected to be led by technology growth styles, but a style switch may occur as the Two Sessions approach, with a higher probability of shifting from growth to stability styles [1] - Following the Two Sessions, the technology sector is anticipated to rise again, despite potential short-term underperformance of growth styles due to profit-taking pressures [1] Market Trends - Since February, technology growth styles have shown strong performance, particularly in TMT and robotics sectors, driven by AI themes, while other sectors have performed relatively poorly [1] - During the Two Sessions, there may be an increased demand for index stability, favoring heavyweight stocks, broad-based indices, and dividend stocks [1] Strategic Recommendations - If the market shows strong performance in cyclical sectors due to policy dynamics, it is advisable to take profits at high points [1] - If the technology sector experiences a temporary adjustment, it is recommended to remain proactive and seek opportunities for a "second rise" in March, particularly focusing on AI-related directions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for February returned above the threshold, indicating a relatively good state of manufacturing prosperity, with the average PMI for January and February overall better than in 2024 [1][3] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for February is 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.1 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [2][3] - The average PMI for January and February is 49.65%, which is higher than the 49.15% in the same period of 2024, reflecting a better recent manufacturing climate [3] Economic Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand sides of the economy are performing well in the short term, with a potential short-term rebound in PPI readings [4] - The production index for February is 52.5%, up 2.7 percentage points from last month, and the average operating rate for six major industrial sectors is 71.0%, which is 2.0 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 [4] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing industries, 7 have PMIs above the threshold, with the equipment manufacturing sector performing relatively well, such as electrical machinery at 57.1% and automotive manufacturing at 53.1% [5] - Conversely, some low-value-added industries are underperforming, such as non-metallic mineral products at 43.4% and petroleum processing at 42.6% [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for February is 50.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, driven mainly by seasonal recovery in the construction industry [6] - The service sector PMI decreased to 50.0%, while the construction PMI increased to 52.7%, indicating a seasonal rebound in construction activities post-Spring Festival [6] Future Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance is benefiting from previous consumption-boosting policies, tariff expectations, and the concentrated issuance of special bonds in the fourth quarter [7] - Future attention should be paid to the details of macro policies from the Two Sessions, the effects of consumption promotion on large items, and the impact of tariffs on exports [7]

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 沈思越 连一席 杨帆 遥远 玛西高娃 于翔 展望春季，随着政策在三大领域的推进和发力，信心修复将从科技领域逐步扩散到经济领域，美国 对华限制的加强或是市场在春季的最大一次挑战，但也是信心全面修复的试金石；中国的新赛道在 萌芽，具备千亿美金市值潜力的新核心资产在扩容，同时传统赛道龙头当中约有3 0%的公司陆续出 现经营拐点；港股的行情还在早期，而前期相对滞涨的A股核心资产正加速出清，未来GARP策略 或接力极致弹性策略，中国的核心资产有望迎来春天。因此，我们沿着科技创新推动产业价值重 构、供给侧改革引导行业供需出清以及制度优化释放消费潜能三个视角，从科技、工业和消费板块 中甄选出"新核心资产3 0 "组合，作为春季的配置重心，我们认为在信心全面修复后，"好公 司"与"普通公司"之间的分化将远远超过"好行业"与"普通行业"之间的分化。 也是信心全面修复的试金石 4月开始美国对华政策不确定性可能会有明显提升。需要留意的风险点主要包括《美国优先贸易 政策备忘录》调查结果在4月初发布，《美国优先投资政策》备忘录的落实以及半导体领域可能 的进一步出口禁令和限制。我们复盘了2 0 1 ...