短短三个月，美股从4月的大幅抛售震荡回升至历史新高。如今，交易员们正拭目以待：美国企业的"成绩单"能否 匹配股市已定价的乐观情绪？ 事实上，市场预期并不高：华尔街正准备迎接2023年中期以来最疲软的财报季。彭博情报数据显示，分析师预计标 普500指数成分股二季度利润同比增长2.5%；11个板块中，有6个预计出现利润下滑；同时，该指数全年增长预期已 从4月初的9.4%降至7.1%。 标普500指数成分股二季度盈利预期降至2年来最低 尽管盈利预期下滑，且企业需应对特朗普的贸易政策，但标普500指数仍处于历史高点附近。 较低的预期反而让企业更容易实现超预期表现。彭博情报策略师吉娜·马丁·亚当斯（Gina Martin Adams）和温迪·宋 （Wendy Soong）表示，从近期企业指引来看，公司很可能轻松超越这些保守预期。 "预期门槛现在非常低，"嘉信理财（Charles Schwab & Co.）高级投资策略师凯文·戈登（Kevin Gordon）称，"这当 然让企业更容易超预期，但我认为重点将是毛利率——尤其是如果关税压力存在，理应在毛利率上体现出来。" 财报季本周拉开帷幕：周三，摩根大通（JPM）、花旗集团 ...

【导读】比特币再创新高，SpaceX将投资20亿美元给马斯克名下人工智能企业xAI 见习记者 储是 特朗普对墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普上周六宣布，自今年8月起对墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收 30%的关税。这一决定引发了多个国家和行业的困惑和担忧。 上周，特朗普已经向除欧盟以外的20多个个国家发送了新的关税函，声称对这些国家征收 20%到50%不等的关税，其中巴西被威胁征收50%的关税。其他未收到信函的国家则将被征 收15%至20%不等的关税。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，墨西哥外交部和经济部在一份联合声明中表示，鉴于美 国宣布自8月1日起对墨西哥输美产品征收30%的新关税，墨西哥政府认为这是"不公平待 遇"，墨西哥已开始与美国进行谈判，以保护边境企业和就业。 声明称，自7月11日起，墨西哥代表团成立了"常设双边工作组"，以解决与美国的安全、移民 和经济问题。墨西哥政府在谈判中提到，美国对墨加征关税是不公平的，墨西哥不同意。 荷兰国际集团策略师在另一份报告中表示，尽管鲍威尔提前离职"不太可能"，但这将导致美 国国债收益率曲线陡峭化，因投资者将对更低利率、更快通胀 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to achieve record high revenue in USD this quarter, driven by the launch of NVIDIA's GB300 AI chip and the new iPhone 17 series, with projections indicating revenue will remain above $30 billion, growing by 3% to 7% quarter-over-quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - TSMC will hold an earnings call on Thursday (17th) to announce last quarter and half-year financial results, as well as outlook for the current quarter [1] - Analysts predict that the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may reduce the surprise factor in TSMC's profit figures for the last quarter, with gross margin and operating margin expected to approach lower limits [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The GB300 chip is set to enter mass production, becoming a key driver for TSMC's high-performance computing (HPC) business, with NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip platform, Rubin, expected to launch in 2026, further tightening capacity utilization for TSMC's 3nm family [1] - The GB300 chip enhances AI inference capabilities, supporting applications in generative AI, agent AI, and physical AI [1] Group 3: Supply Chain Insights - The GB300 chip's performance improvements are anticipated to be a major highlight in the AI industry for the second half of the year, with TSMC being the primary manufacturer [2] - Foxconn is expected to secure the largest share of orders for AI server assembly, with other companies like Quanta, Wistron, and Inventec also ramping up shipments [1][2] Group 4: Product Launches - The upcoming launch of Apple's iPhone 17 series is expected to boost TSMC's advanced process orders, with supply chain estimates indicating a single-digit percentage increase in the flagship model's inventory compared to last year [2] - The new iPhone's AI features are projected to increase silicon content, making it a significant outlet for TSMC's 3nm family, with Apple also set to be the first customer for TSMC's upcoming 2nm capacity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in trade negotiations, the impact of tariffs on inflation, and the upcoming economic data releases that could influence monetary policy decisions in the US and Europe [1][3][6]. Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - President Trump announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs on several trade partners, leading to a decline in US stock markets, with the Dow Jones down 1.02% and the S&P 500 down 0.31% for the week [1]. - The deadline for the new tariffs to take effect is August 1, and investors are awaiting further news on trade negotiations [1][3]. - The EU is attempting to reach a trade agreement with the US, with concerns that US tariffs could disrupt transatlantic supply chains [6]. Economic Data and Monetary Policy - The upcoming US inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decision on potential interest rate cuts later this year [3]. - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicated concerns about inflation pressures from tariffs, but a belief that a rate cut may occur later in the year [3]. - In the UK, inflation has risen, with the CPI at 3.4% in May, and expectations for a potential rate cut by the Bank of England if economic data continues to underperform [7]. Commodity Markets - Oil prices have stabilized, with WTI crude oil rising 2.16% to $68.45 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing 3.02% to $70.36 per barrel, amid concerns over summer supply and demand [4]. - Gold prices have also rebounded, with COMEX gold rising 0.73% to $3356 per ounce, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid trade uncertainties [5]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the US PPI, industrial production, and retail sales data, as well as consumer sentiment surveys [3][9]. - In Europe, the ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany will be released, reflecting the economic outlook amid trade tensions [6].

海外方面，1）全球关税或存升级风险，但对市场扰动或有限。特朗普选择优 先施压的 22 个经济体，除日韩外，均体量偏小、对美国重要程度偏低，可能 是在为后续与更亲密盟友国和更大型经济体谈判争取更多筹码。2）往后看， 值得关注的时点：7.15 美国 6 月 CPI 数据，7.15-8 月初美股 Q2 财报，7.28 财政部 Q3 再融资会议，8.1 和 8.10 美国对等关税变化（非美和中国）。 回到资产端：1）近期的"强美股+弱美元"格局有助于提振非美权益风险偏好 及流动性，且美元只要仍在 95-100 区间即为弱势。2）今年以来全球权益市场 存在轮动特征：德国 DAX、恒生科技➔韩国➔美股、A 股。若随后 1-2 周全球 未现显著利空因素，恒生科技再次向上突破的概率有所增加。3）国内方面， "反内卷"对资产风格的影响暂不显著，在 PPI 同比回正预期出现前，哑铃型 策略依旧有效。 定期报告 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 全球权益轮动，港股或为下阶段焦点 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面， 1）上半年经济增速明显超过全年目标，给了政策端进行经济结构 调整的窗口期。 ...

Group 1: Tariffs and Trade - The U.S. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting next month, an increase from the previously set 25% [1] - Trump suggested raising tariffs on other countries to 15% or 20%, up from the current 10% [1] - Market participants are facing uncertainty as the August 1 tariff implementation date approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and other countries [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market reacted more calmly to the new tariff announcements compared to the sharp declines seen after the "liberation day" in April [2] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down, while the Dow Jones broke its longest three-week winning streak since January [2] - Nvidia became the first company to reach a market capitalization of $4 trillion, with its stock hitting a historical high [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. CPI data and retail sales figures are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rate cuts [4][10] - The June CPI is anticipated to rise from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year, which could impact the Fed's rate cut considerations [11] - The June PPI and retail sales data will also be released, providing further insights into inflation and consumer spending [12] Group 4: Company Earnings - The second-quarter earnings season is set to begin, with major companies like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, and TSMC reporting [17] - Netflix's upcoming earnings report is particularly significant, as its stock recently reached an all-time high, necessitating impressive results to maintain its upward trend [17] - The financial sector is expected to provide positive signals, while tech giants, especially Nvidia, may drive further market gains [17]

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经上海7月13日电（葛佳明） 本周（7月7日至12日），美国关税政策不确定性再起，美股三大指数承压下挫，市场对美国通 胀的担忧推动美元指数震荡上行，非美货币多数下挫，黄金反弹，白银大涨，刷新2011年以来高位。 外汇市场方面，关税政策的不确定性推升美元走势，美元指数本周涨0.91%报97.873；非美货币方面，澳元兑美元本周持续走高，澳 洲联储维持利率不变，超市场预期；英镑和欧元兑美元震荡下跌，英镑录得六连跌；日元周初大幅下跌后维持区间盘整，本周累计 下跌2%。 大宗商品方面，现货黄金周初区间震荡，一度下破3300关口，但随着关税政策再度刺激市场避险情绪升温，周三黄金持续反弹，本 周累计涨幅达0.62%，收于每盎司3355.7美元，连续第二周上涨；纽约COMEX黄金主力期货合约本周上涨0.82%，收报每盎司3370.5 美元。 现货白银、铂金本周大幅上涨，其中，现货白银本周大涨3.98%，收报每盎司38.406美元；COMEX白银主力合约期货本周累计上涨 5.37%，收报每盎司39.08美元。现货铂金本周突破每盎司1400美元关口，NYMEX铂金期货价格本周累计上涨6.55%，收报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yuanlong Yatu, the first A-share listed company in the gift industry, disclosed significant internal control issues, revealing that a sales employee is suspected of embezzlement through falsifying company documents and contracts [2][3]. Financial Impact - The fraudulent activities are believed to have affected the sales revenue for the first quarter of 2025 by approximately 29.35 million yuan, which could lead to a reduction in net profit attributable to shareholders by the same amount [3]. - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates a net loss of between 5 million and 10 million yuan, compared to a profit of 25.79 million yuan in the same period last year, representing a decline of 119.39% to 138.78% [4]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be a loss of 8 million to 13 million yuan, down from a profit of 23.35 million yuan year-on-year, indicating a decrease of 134.27% to 155.69% [4]. Internal Control Assessment - Despite the ongoing investigation, the company previously reported no significant deficiencies in its internal controls for 2023 and 2024, asserting that it maintained effective financial reporting controls [5]. - The internal control evaluation reports from both the company and its sponsor indicated that there were no major deficiencies identified, and the governance structure was deemed sound [5]. Company Overview - Yuanlong Yatu, established in 1998 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in June 2017, is recognized as a leading integrated marketing service provider in China, offering a range of services including gift products, digital marketing, and cultural creative products [6]. - As of July 11, the company's market capitalization stood at 5.423 billion yuan [6].

元隆雅图称，为了维护上市公司利益，公司近日主动向北京市公安局西城分局经侦支队报 案，并收到了北京市公安局西城分局出具的《立案告知书》，主要内容为：北京市公安局西 城分局认为该销售人员涉嫌职务侵占一案符合立案条件，现依法对该案立案侦查，并已对该 案犯罪嫌疑人依法采取刑事强制措施。 【导读】元隆雅图自曝销售人员涉嫌职务侵占被立案，多期财报或失真 中国基金报记者 南深 礼赠品行业第一家 A 股上市公司元隆雅图， 7 月 11 日晚曝出重大内部控制问题。 中国基金报问讯 - 更快 更准 更有料 公告称，经自查发现，公司一名在职销售人员存在职务侵占嫌疑，即通过伪造公司客户公 章、销售合同等资料，虚构销售业务，非法占有公司财产。 2025-07-11 19:34:15 星期五 【元隆雅图:销售人员涉嫌职务 侵占被立案】 中国基金报7月11日电, 元隆雅图（002878.S Z）公告，公司发现一名在职销售人员涉嫌伪造 客户公章及销售合同,虚构业务侵占公司财 产,已向公安机关报案并获立案。涉案人员已 被采取刑事强制措施,案件涉及2023年、2024 年及2025年一季度销售收入，具体金额待公安 机关调查确认。 长按右侧二维码 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the resilience of the market in the face of various crises, including inflation fears, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions, suggesting that these factors have not significantly impacted the long-term bullish trajectory driven by AI [1][2][6] - Investors are increasingly confident in the upcoming earnings season, particularly for major tech companies and AI-related firms, which are expected to show strong performance and continue to drive the market to new highs [2][12] - The "TACO" trading strategy has gained popularity among Wall Street traders, betting that the Trump administration will back down from aggressive tariff threats, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [7][8] Group 2 - Despite rising indicators of market pressure, traders are showing increased risk tolerance, with low volatility across asset classes indicating a potential for continued upward movement in risk assets [3][6] - Major tech companies, particularly those involved in AI, are projected to lead earnings growth, with Nvidia and Microsoft expected to drive significant increases in profitability, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment in the market [12][13] - The demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, with major clients committing to increased spending on AI capabilities, which is seen as a key driver for stock market performance [13]