Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The macro - policy adheres to the general principle of making progress while maintaining stability. The fiscal policy will be more proactive, and the monetary policy will be moderately loose. The government aims to stabilize the real - estate market [3][15][75]. - In 2025, the steel market was in a weak state. Real - estate investment and new - construction area declined, dragging down the demand for construction steel. Manufacturing and exports provided some support, with good plate consumption. Overall terminal demand was weak, and China's steel demand in 2026 is expected to slightly shrink. In terms of supply, the total steel output in 2025 remained high, with a significant decline in long - product output and a relatively small decline in plate output. In 2026, the crude - steel output regulation policy is likely to keep the output at a level similar to or slightly lower than that in 2025 [3][75]. - In 2026, steel futures are expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern. Macro - policies can provide a floor, but strong stimulation is unlikely. Weak demand and stable supply in the fundamental aspect. The decline in real - estate steel demand is the main drag, and the resilience of manufacturing and exports can only provide partial support, unable to offset the overall contraction in demand. The supply side has limited elasticity under output regulation, and cost and inventory pressures persist. The steel - price center will move downwards. The reference price ranges are 2,600 - 3,300 yuan/ton for rebar and 2,700 - 3,500 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [3][76]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Market Review - In 2025, steel futures went through three stages: "falling first, then rising, and then falling back". In the first half of the year, due to weak domestic real - estate demand, unfulfilled peak - season expectations, and unexpected macro and overseas tariff policies, steel prices declined. In July, policies and supply tightening led to a rapid price rebound, but later, due to unfulfilled policy expectations, prices fell back. From September to October, the "peak season" was not prosperous, and in the seasonal off - season from November, prices were weak and volatile. The overall price center of the year moved down [10][11]. 2. Demand: Real - Estate Drag and Manufacturing Support - **Fifteenth Five - Year Plan Start**: In 2025, China's macro - policies adhered to the principle of making progress while maintaining stability. Fiscal policy was proactive, supporting key areas and preventing local - government debt risks. Monetary policy was flexible and precise, aiming to maintain economic growth and stable exchange rates. The core tasks of the "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" include building a modern industrial system, implementing innovation - driven strategies, expanding domestic demand, and deepening reform and opening - up. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies and stabilizing the real - estate market [13][14][15]. - **Real - Estate Drag**: In 2025, real - estate policies focused on risk prevention and market stability. In 2026, the focus will be on building a new development model. In 2025, real - estate development investment continued to decline, with "three major projects" providing some support. In 2026, real - estate development investment is expected to decline by 8 - 10% year - on - year, and real - estate steel demand is expected to decline by 8 - 10% year - on - year, with its proportion in total steel demand dropping to about 21% [16][17][18]. - **Infrastructure Rebound**: In 2025, infrastructure investment was moderately ahead of schedule, with a focus on structural optimization. Investment in new infrastructure and energy infrastructure increased. Although the overall infrastructure investment declined slightly in the first 10 months, the steel demand in energy and water - conservancy sectors grew significantly. In 2026, infrastructure investment is expected to grow steadily, and infrastructure will remain an important support for steel consumption [22][23]. - **Stable Manufacturing Growth**: In 2025, the machinery industry was robust, with the excavator industry and ship - building industry performing well. The automobile industry had high production and sales, especially in new - energy vehicles. The home - appliance industry underperformed the market, with domestic sales being high in the first half and low in the second half and exports facing pressure. In 2026, domestic home - appliance demand may be under pressure, while overseas production may increase. Overall, manufacturing activities showed marginal improvement, but demand was not yet solid [30][31][32]. - **High and Stable Steel Exports with Increasing Resistance**: In 2025, China's steel exports reached a record high. Although exports to some countries decreased due to anti - dumping measures, exports to other regions increased significantly. The export structure was mainly composed of plates, pipes, and bars. In 2025, the export of hot - rolled coils decreased, while the export of building materials and billets increased [39]. - **Weak Domestic Demand, Strong Plates and Weak Long Products**: In 2025, the steel market was weak, with real - estate investment and new - construction area declining, dragging down construction - steel demand. Manufacturing and exports provided some support, with good plate consumption. In 2026, China's steel demand is expected to slightly shrink, with real - estate remaining a drag and plate demand remaining relatively resilient [44]. 3. Supply: High - Volume Pressure and Structural Differentiation - **Policy - Guided Supply Control and Quality Improvement**: In 2025, the steel industry issued two core policies to regulate the industry, optimize the structure, and promote growth. In 2025, steel supply was at a high level, with strong plate production and weak long - product production, and a front - heavy and back - light production rhythm. In 2026, China's steel supply is expected to continue the trend of total - volume control and structural optimization, with crude - steel output likely to be similar to or slightly lower than that in 2025 [50][51][52]. - **Better - than - Average Steel - Mill Profits**: In 2025, the steel industry's profitability was high in the first half and low in the second half. The profit in the first half came from cost reduction, while the profit in the fourth quarter turned into a loss. In 2026, steel mills are expected to maintain a meager - profit state due to pressure from the demand side and high - price fluctuations in raw materials [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, steel inventory pressure increased gradually. Inventory was low in the first half and accumulated significantly in the second half. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was higher than that of rebar. Weak terminal demand led to continuous pressure on steel prices from inventory, and if demand does not improve, the inventory contradiction may intensify [64]. 4. Market Outlook - In 2026, steel futures are expected to continue the volatile and weak pattern. Macro - policies can provide a floor but are unlikely to have strong stimulation. Weak demand and stable supply in the fundamental aspect. The decline in real - estate steel demand is the main drag, and the resilience of manufacturing and exports can only provide partial support, unable to offset the overall contraction in demand. The supply side has limited elasticity under output regulation, and cost and inventory pressures persist. The steel - price center will move downwards, with the reference price ranges of 2,600 - 3,300 yuan/ton for rebar and 2,700 - 3,500 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [76].

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to maintain stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency in economic policies for the upcoming year [1][2] - The integration of existing and new policies will be enhanced, with a focus on increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to improve macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1][2] - Analyst Zhang Yu noted that the current policies are considered extraordinary, leading to a noticeable improvement in economic circulation, with indicators such as M1 and corporate and household deposit growth rates showing a continuous rebound [1][2] Group 2 - There is an expectation for the economy to gradually reduce its reliance on extraordinary policies, potentially returning to normalized counter-cyclical policies by 2026 [1][2] - The macroeconomic policy approach is characterized as flexible, dynamic, and responsive to changing circumstances [1][2]

Group 1 - The annual Central Economic Work Conference has been held, summarizing this year's economic and social development and outlining the roadmap for next year [3][4] - The meeting emphasized that this year is significant as it marks the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][6] - The conference highlighted the achievements over the past five years, including the completion of major economic goals despite various challenges [6][7] Group 2 - Domestic challenges include a downturn in real estate, local debt issues, weak consumption, and employment pressures, while international challenges involve regional conflicts and trade tensions, particularly with the US [9][10] - The GDP growth target of 5% for this year is likely to be achieved, with the third quarter GDP growth reaching 4.8% and the first three quarters averaging 5.2% [11][12] Group 3 - The economic strategy for next year will focus on stability while promoting progress, with an emphasis on better coordinating domestic economic work and international trade struggles [16][18] - Key measures include increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, and optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [20][21][22] - The emphasis on optimizing fiscal expenditure suggests a potential shift from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth, with calls for direct financial support to residents [25][26] Group 4 - The focus on domestic demand and technological innovation remains paramount, with plans to strengthen the domestic market and enhance innovation capabilities [31][33] - The current consumption level in China is at 39.9% of GDP, which is below the 40% threshold maintained for 20 years, indicating a need for structural upgrades [36][37] - The meeting reiterated that expanding domestic demand and advancing technological innovation are critical for long-term economic growth and competitiveness [38][39] Group 5 - The discussion on real estate has shifted, with a notable decrease in mentions and a focus on stabilizing the market rather than pushing for a rebound [43][46] - The real estate market has seen significant declines, with a 14.7% drop in investment and a 9.6% decrease in sales revenue in the first ten months of the year [49][50] - The outlook for real estate suggests a potential bottoming out of sales volume, with estimates indicating a drop to around 800 million square meters in sales area [66][69]

宏观经济分析报告 5 内外政策落地，预期逐步对齐 ――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威[Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 12 月 12 日 就外围环境而言，美国方面，最新周度初请失业金人数攀升至四季度以来高 位，虽然其有可能受季节性因素扰动偏高，但若结合 JOLTS 显示的招聘人 数减少、裁员人数增多以及劳动力成本增长低于预期等多维度数据来看，劳 动力市场仍在趋势性放缓。延后发布的 9 月 PCE 物价指数同比增速上升但 符合预期且核心分项自今年二季度以来首次出现下降。同时，实际个人 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, impacting market dynamics [1] - The commercial aerospace sector showed strong performance, with significant gains in stocks such as Tianli Composite, Shunhao Co., Aerospace Power, and Aerospace Development [5][6] - The 79th session of the "Digging Gold" competition concluded with impressive returns, including a champion return of 43.13% [1][3] Group 2 - The 80th session of the "Digging Gold" competition will start registration on December 13, with a simulated trading capital of 500,000 yuan [3][10] - Participants in the competition will receive various rewards, including cash prizes for positive returns and access to exclusive market analysis tools [4][10] - Notable stock performances include Bona Film Group, which saw a profit increase of over 80%, driven by its involvement in the "Avatar 3" project [7][9] Group 3 - Market experts anticipate a shift towards consumer demand as a primary economic driver, with expectations for a prolonged bull market in A-shares [9] - Key investment opportunities are identified in humanoid robots, solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), and the gold sector, with significant growth potential in these areas [9]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 螺纹钢市场周报 表需继续回落 螺纹期价弱势运行 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至12月12日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3060（-97），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3280（-50）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量继续下调。178.78（-10.53），同比（-39.29）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需203.09（-13.89），（同比-34.57）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存479.5（-24.31），（同比+56.53）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比上周减少0.43个百分点，同比去年减少12.12个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储在为期两天的政策会议 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic demand and economic growth, with a focus on moderate policy stimulus that is data-driven and efficiency-oriented [3] - The central economic work conference outlines three main investment themes for the upcoming year: expanding domestic demand, promoting technological and industrial innovation, and advancing the construction of a unified national market [3] Group 1: Expanding Domestic Demand - The conference highlights the need to implement special actions to boost consumption, develop urban and rural income plans, and optimize the supply of quality goods and services [3] - It suggests that improving consumer capacity, enhancing willingness to consume, and creating favorable consumption conditions are essential for driving future consumption growth in China [3] - Key sectors to focus on include new retail, dining, hospitality, cultural tourism, and modern services such as healthcare, elderly care, childcare, and finance [3] Group 2: Technological and Industrial Innovation - The report calls for a comprehensive plan to advance education and technology talent development, strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation, and implement high-quality development actions for key industrial chains [3] - It emphasizes the strategic direction of artificial intelligence (AI) development, advocating for the "AI+" initiative to enhance technological research and industrial upgrading [3] - Investment opportunities are identified in high-end manufacturing, renewable energy, and AI-related industries, with a particular focus on AI application implementation in the coming year [3] Group 3: Unified National Market Construction - The conference indicates the need to establish regulations for a unified national market and to address "involution" competition [3] - The "anti-involution" approach is expected to support inflation and improve supply-demand relationships in traditional cyclical industries, while also benefiting emerging industries by regulating competition [3] - Sectors likely to benefit include new energy vehicles, e-commerce, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, as they may experience enhanced output efficiency [3] Short-term Market Judgments and Investment Strategies - The report notes that while the central economic work conference has released positive policy signals, the short-term market will still be influenced by liquidity factors and market sentiment [3] - It suggests a balanced investment strategy, combining defensive sectors like banking, insurance, telecommunications, and utilities with growth sectors in technology, particularly those with strong AI attributes and reasonable valuations [3] - The report recommends focusing on AI-leading companies in the Hong Kong stock market and opportunities in the A-share computing power industry chain and AI application layer [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which has led to increased expectations for global liquidity easing, resulting in significant capital inflow into the non-ferrous metals market, driving prices of copper and silver to new historical highs [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference has released positive signals for stable growth, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, has issued a work plan for the non-ferrous metals industry aimed at stabilizing growth from 2025 to 2026, providing solid policy support for the sector [1][3] - Several non-ferrous metal companies have announced new mineral exploration projects in early December, further boosting market confidence in the industry's development prospects and attracting continued capital investment [1] Group 2 - As of December 12, the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 1.44%, with notable gains from companies such as Xinweiling, which increased by over 14%, and others like Jingyi Co., Zhongzhou Special Materials, and SRE New Materials showing significant price increases [2] - The copper market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with domestic copper inventories increasing slightly, indicating a potential stabilization in prices after recent fluctuations [4] - In the zinc market, LME zinc inventories have increased, but domestic inventories have decreased, reflecting a mixed supply situation that is influencing market sentiment positively [5] - The tin market is facing tight supply from major production areas, while demand remains weak due to reduced orders in the consumer electronics and home appliance sectors, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [6] - The silver market has seen a significant price increase following the Fed's interest rate cut, with silver prices surpassing $60 per ounce, driven by tightening supply and increased speculative interest [7]

本报讯 （记者王宁）2026年是实施"十五五"规划的开局之年，也是迈向全面建设社会主义现代化国家 新征程的关键一年。12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议深刻分析当前经济形势，系统部署了明年经济 工作的总体要求与重点任务，强调要"持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展 新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市 场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"，为我国明年经济发展指明了方向、明确了 要求。 三是深化改革创新，推动业务实现新突破。要结合自身资源禀赋，发挥比较优势，推动发展模式从规模 扩张向质量提升转变，加强产品创新、服务探索和业务协同，在细分领域、特色客群、重点领域集中资 源、深耕细作，作出特色，努力实现高质量发展实现新突破。 四是筑牢合规与风险管理底线，合规管理和风险防控取得新成效。要强化全员合规意识，健全完善合规 与风险管理体系，强化子公司各项业务有效管控，不断提高风险识别、预警、防控、化解、处置能力， 确保整体风险可控、可测、可承受。 五是厚植文化底蕴，推动文化建设焕发新气象。要积极培育中国特色金融文化，结合"合规、诚信 ...

本报讯 （记者王宁）明年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，做好经济工作至关重要。刚刚召开的中央经济 工作会议精准研判了当前宏观经济形势，对明年经济工作作出一系列重要部署，必将进一步坚定发展信 心，持续巩固经济稳中向好势头，为实现"十五五"发展目标打牢发展基础。 浙商期货董事长胡军表示，站在新的历史起点上，要充分认识中央经济工作会议的重大意义，准确把握 好主要目标和重要任务，贯彻落实好"八个坚持"的相关要求，时刻谨记金融工作的政治性、人民性，以 更强的动力、更足的信心不懈努力、接续奋斗，努力在新征程中作出更多贡献。浙商期货始终坚持服务 实体经济初心，以促进高质量发展为主线，围绕做好金融工作"五篇大文章"，加快探索模式创新与服务 升级，持续打造形成资源共享、优势互补的期货保障体系，确保金融服务覆盖更广、成效更足。 会议强调"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"。在政策引导与市场驱动中。胡军表示，浙商期货将不断提升专 业能力和创新水平，最大程度上释放出期货市场的服务保障功能，为加快建设金融强国目标持续贡献期 货力量。始终坚持党对金融工作的领导，切实增强做好金融行业党建工作的责任感使命感，紧扣防风 险、强监管、促高质量发展工作要求， ...