一轮牛市，人们只会记得最后的"疯"，很少有人记得它之前往往是漫长、枯燥、甚至伴随质疑声的"慢"。 2015年的疯牛，真正的起点在2013年； 2021年大家口口声声说是牛市，但上证指数全年几乎横着走，赚钱效应主要来自中小盘和赛道股。 今天的A股，又一次站在类似的阶段： 指数不算耀眼，情绪时冷时热，但结构已经发生了关键变化。 我的核心判断是： 这轮牛市尚未结束，仍处在从"慢热"走向"发酵"的阶段，未来3个月，A股有较大概率走出类似2014年底那种"先挖坑、再 拉升"的节奏，春节前后或是情绪爆点。 下面我们从资金、政策、结构和时间节奏四个维度，把这件事讲清楚。 一、情绪冰冷，往往不是牛市结束，而是主升浪的酝酿期 很多人这两年最大的感受是： "指数没涨多少，我的账户怎么反而更难做了？" "明明新闻天天说利好，怎么盘面老是阴晴不定？" 如果只盯着指数，你确实很难判断牛熊。 从几个关键"现象"看，目前更符合"牛市中段，而非尾声"的特征： 散户参与度并不高 新开户数据温和，没有出现2015年那种开户潮。 银行存款搬家迹象有限，居民资金并未大规模杀入股市。 社交网络上"炒股一夜翻倍"的故事极少，讨论热度远未"泛滥"。 场内 ...

Company Overview - Aike Co., Ltd. (SZ 300889) announced on November 20 that its controlling shareholder, Mr. Xie Mingwu, has pledged 3.95 million shares, bringing the total pledged shares to 27.647 million, which accounts for 43.56% of his holdings [1] Revenue Composition - For the year 2024, Aike's revenue composition is as follows: LED industry contributes 69.68%, new energy materials account for 17.49%, photovoltaic and wind power sectors represent 10.49%, electric vehicle charging industry makes up 1.94%, and other businesses contribute 0.39% [1] Market Capitalization - As of the announcement date, Aike's market capitalization stands at 5.7 billion yuan [1]

Company Overview - Aike Co., Ltd. (SZ 300889) announced a board meeting on November 11, 2025, to discuss the proposal for the re-election of a non-independent director [1] - As of the report, Aike's market capitalization is 4.9 billion yuan [1] Revenue Composition - For the year 2024, Aike's revenue composition is as follows: - LED industry: 69.68% - New energy materials: 17.49% - Photovoltaic and wind power: 10.49% - New energy vehicle charging: 1.94% - Other businesses: 0.39% [1]

Group 1 - The State Council issued an implementation opinion to accelerate the cultivation of scenarios and promote large-scale application of new scenarios [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a suspension of the second clause of the announcement regarding the export control of dual-use items to the United States [1] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the ASML semiconductor issue, agreeing to the Netherlands' request for personnel to come to China for consultations [1] Group 2 - The white paper on "China's Actions for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" indicates that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase from 16.0% in 2020 to 19.8% in 2024 [1] - The National Energy Administration is accelerating the development of photovoltaic and wind power industries in mining areas, promoting clean energy alternatives [1] Group 3 - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,433 billion [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of platinum and palladium futures and options [1] Group 4 - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement special actions to boost consumption, providing financial subsidies for personal consumption loans in key areas and loans to related industry operators [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a year-on-year increase of 0.2% in consumer prices for October 2025 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes high - quality economic development, with potential continuation of the "14th Five - Year Plan" approach of downplaying specific GDP growth targets. Mid - to long - term, there may be an implicit economic growth target to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [3][11]. - The priority of "industry" in the "15th Five - Year Plan" has increased, with a shift in industrial development goals and a change in the order of goals, highlighting the precedence of the "industrial ecosystem" [4][14]. - Technological innovation and new - quality productivity remain the main lines of development, with a more proactive stance on technological self - reliance and focus on breaking through "bottleneck" areas [5][17]. - The strategy of expanding domestic demand has been upgraded from "investment - driven" to "emphasizing both people and things", aiming to boost residents' consumption ability and income expectations [6][20]. - Deep - level reforms have entered a new stage of systematic integration, with a focus on stimulating the vitality of various business entities and improving the macro - economic governance system [22]. 3. Summary by Directory "15th Five - Year Plan" Bulletin Emphasizes Economic High - Quality Development - The main goals of the "15th Five - Year Plan" involve multiple aspects such as high - quality development, technological self - reliance, reform, people's livelihood, and national security. Economic development goals may continue the "14th Five - Year Plan" orientation, de - emphasizing specific GDP growth targets [3][11]. - To reach a per - capita GDP of about $25,000 in 2035 from $13,400 in 2024, the nominal GDP growth rate needs to reach 6.3%. Considering a price increase of 1.3% - 1.5% per year, the average GDP growth should be 4.8% - 5.0% [3][12]. "Industry" in the "15th Five - Year Plan" Bulletin's Priority Increase - The "15th Five - Year Plan" Bulletin emphasizes building a modern industrial system, with industrial development goals shifting from "upgrading industrial bases and modernizing industrial chains" to "intelligent, green, and integrated directions". It also adds new expressions about building a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone [4][14]. - The order of goals in the bulletin has changed, with the industrial system taking the first place, indicating a strategic shift from "technology - driven industrial upgrading" to "system - based industrial construction leading technological breakthroughs" [4][15]. Technological Innovation and New - Quality Productivity Remain the Development Main Line - The word "technology" appears 10 times in the bulletin, highlighting the value of technological innovation and the need to lead the development of new - quality productivity [5][17]. - Compared with the "14th Five - Year Plan", the "15th Five - Year Plan" has a more proactive stance on technological self - reliance, aiming to seize the high - ground in technological development and focus on breaking through "bottleneck" areas [5][17]. Expansion of Domestic Demand from "Investment - Driven" to "Emphasizing Both People and Things" - The new statement of "combining people - oriented and thing - oriented investment" in the bulletin is a major upgrade of the domestic demand strategy, aiming to enhance residents' consumption ability and income expectations [6][20]. - Future policies may focus on improving the social security system, promoting high - quality full employment, and perfecting the income distribution system to boost consumption. Specific work includes promoting consumption through various means and making targeted and efficient investments [20]. Deep - Level Reforms Enter a New Stage of Systematic Integration - The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to build a high - level socialist market economic system, enhance the driving force for high - quality development, and improve the macro - economic governance system [22]. - Given the complex reform environment and overlapping reform tasks with the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, future reforms will focus more on systematicness and synergy, including stimulating the vitality of business entities and improving macro - economic governance efficiency [22]. Potential Industry Trends and High - Quality Tracks - The bulletin provides clues for market exploration of industry trends and high - quality tracks, including high - end and intelligent manufacturing in the modern industrial system, artificial intelligence, low - altitude economy, semiconductors, and new materials in emerging and future industries, photovoltaic and wind power in green transformation, and cloud computing and computing power infrastructure in digital China construction [6][23].

Group 1 - The A-share major indices have further weakened, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 3.00%, the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.75%, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreasing by 2.75% [1] - Sectors such as power grid equipment, semiconductor chips, photovoltaic wind power, and nuclear fusion experienced significant declines, leading to nearly 4,600 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets falling [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to decline, with significant drops in various indices and sectors, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1]. Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3885.87, down by 30.35 points or 0.78% [2]. - The ChiNext Index fell to 2972.59, decreasing by 64.85 points or 2.14% [2]. - The Shenzhen Component Index ended at 12854.52, down by 231.89 points or 1.77% [2]. - The Sci-Tech 50 Index dropped to 1374.81, a decline of 41.76 points or 2.95% [2]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4563.45, down by 54.97 points or 1.19% [2]. - The SSE 50 Index ended at 2998.40, decreasing by 20.80 points or 0.69% [2]. Sector Performance - Key sectors that experienced significant declines include electric grid equipment, semiconductor chips, photovoltaic and wind power, superhard materials, wireless charging, and military equipment restructuring [1]. - Nearly 3800 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets saw declines [1].

Core Insights - Over the past five years, China has achieved significant milestones in various sectors, showcasing resilience and vitality amid global uncertainties [1][2][3][4] - The economic total reached approximately 140 trillion yuan, with per capita GDP surpassing 13,000 USD for the first time, indicating a stronger national comprehensive strength and improved living standards for citizens [2][4] Group 1: Economic Growth - China's GDP has consistently crossed multiple 10 trillion yuan thresholds, maintaining its position as the world's second-largest economy [1] - The economic growth narrative is reflected in increased consumer spending and a more diversified and high-end industrial structure [2] Group 2: Technological Innovation - China has transitioned from "catching up" to "keeping pace" and now to "leading" in technological innovation, with its global innovation index ranking rising from 34th in 2012 to 10th in 2025 [3] - R&D investment intensity has surpassed the average level of EU countries, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [3][4] Group 3: Social Welfare - Key indicators of social welfare, such as resident income and employment security, have exceeded expectations during the 14th Five-Year Plan, enhancing the overall quality of life for citizens [4] - The focus on common prosperity is expected to manifest in better employment opportunities, higher quality public services, and a more inclusive social system in the future [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1][27]. Core Insights - Significant breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology and advancements in nuclear fusion industrialization are highlighted. The domestic sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to maintain high growth, driven by new model releases and the upcoming sales peak, which will boost demand for batteries and materials [1][3]. - The report emphasizes a "anti-involution" strategy for photovoltaic investments, with recent government announcements aimed at maintaining market price order, indicating potential price increases within the photovoltaic industry chain [1][3]. - The new energy storage sector is projected to remain robust, with a target of reaching over 180 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity by 2027, and recent trends show rising bidding prices for storage systems [1][3]. - In the hydrogen energy sector, the National Energy Administration is promoting green liquid fuel technology, which is expected to benefit from premium pricing in its early development stages [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes that in September 2025, NEV wholesale sales reached 1.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month-on-month increase of 16%. Cumulative wholesale sales for the first nine months of the year reached 10.446 million units, up 32% year-on-year [3][16]. - The average price of a 2-hour energy storage system in September 2025 was 0.641 yuan/Wh, reflecting a 31% increase month-on-month [1][16]. - The BEST device's first key component, the Dewar base, has been assembled, marking progress in nuclear fusion projects [1][16]. Company Developments - Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary signed a supply agreement for ternary precursor products totaling approximately 76,000 tons from 2026 to 2030 [18]. - Zhongwei Co. is undergoing a listing review by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Xiamen Tungsten [18]. - Aike Saibo has released a draft for its 2025 restricted stock incentive plan [18].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.27%, while the North Stock 50 declined [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 200.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.81 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,400 stocks in the market saw an increase [1] Sector Performance - The leading sectors in terms of gains included oil and gas, film and television, satellite communication, tourism, gaming, and AI computing hardware [1] - Conversely, sectors that experienced declines included energy metals, photovoltaic and wind power, PEEK materials, and solid-state battery concepts [1] Notable Stocks - AI computing hardware stocks rebounded collectively, with Industrial Fulian hitting the daily limit, and Shenghong Technology reaching a new high during the session [1] - Oil and gas stocks surged, with Zhun Oil shares hitting the daily limit [1] - The satellite communication sector maintained high volatility, with stocks like Yuandao Communication, 263, and Sanwei Communication reaching their daily limits [1] - Other active sectors included sports, gaming, and film and television [1] - In contrast, many stocks in the new energy sector, such as Shangneng Electric and Tianhong Lithium Battery, saw declines exceeding 10%, with Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Jinko Solar also experiencing significant drops [1]