今天分享的是：2025 年第四季度市场展望：从贸易战到降息与刺激政策 报告共计：11页 2025年第四季度市场展望：全球经济在贸易缓和与政策刺激中寻求新平衡 2025年第三季度，全球市场在多重利好因素推动下实现显著反弹。中美贸易紧张局势暂缓、人工智能领域乐观情绪蔓延，以及美联储降息预期共同提振了投 资者信心。全球股市普遍上涨，新兴市场表现尤为亮眼，整体涨幅超过发达市场。其中，部分亚洲经济体如中国、韩国和泰国股市涨幅领先，而印度市场因 估值压力和外资流出出现回调。固定收益市场在波动中上行，美国国债收益率全线下行，新兴市场美元债券表现强劲。大宗商品市场中，黄金及贵金属板块 涨幅突出，而能源与农业板块相对疲软。整体来看，市场在贸易环境改善与流动性宽松的背景下呈现风险偏好回升态势。 展望未来数月，全球经济增长可能面临放缓压力，但政策刺激有望在2026年初推动经济反弹。美国经济受就业增长停滞及关税成本上升影响，增速或有所减 弱，但企业在新基建与科技领域的投资仍提供一定支撑。东亚地区增长势头可能放缓，而印度经济指标显示初步回暖迹象，在财政与货币政策的双重刺激下 有望逐步复苏。中国近期信贷增速回落表明内需仍待加强，但后续政 ...

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is focusing on increasing fiscal support for technological innovation and the construction of a modern industrial system over the next five years [1][2] Fiscal Reform - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the implementation of zero-based budgeting to break the rigid structure of current fiscal expenditures [1] - The government has initiated a three-year action plan for zero-based budgeting from 2025 to 2027, with pilot programs starting in 2025 [1] Technological Innovation - The region aims to enhance its technological innovation capabilities by reallocating funds to support key areas such as new energy, rare earth materials, and biopharmaceuticals [2] - Significant technology tasks will be implemented to produce more original achievements in these advantageous fields [2] Financial Statistics - In 2024, the total fiscal science and technology expenditure in Inner Mongolia is projected to be 8.63 billion, an increase of 1.13 billion or 15.1% from the previous year [3] - The proportion of this expenditure in the general public budget is 1.2% [3] Risk Management - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines the need for risk prevention in key areas, including the resolution of hidden debts and overdue payments to enterprises [3] - Inner Mongolia has exited the list of high-risk debt regions, but challenges remain regarding high debt rates in some areas [3] Fiscal System Improvement - The plan calls for reforming the fiscal system below the autonomous region level, rationally dividing fiscal responsibilities and expenditure duties [4] - It also emphasizes performance management reform and the establishment of a lifecycle management system for bond funds [4]

经济观察网 11月24日，河北省人民政府网站发布《中共河北省委关于制定河北省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。中国共产党河 北省第十届委员会第九次全体会议，认真学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神，紧密结合河北实际，就制定河北省国民经济和社会发展"十五五"规 划提出以下建议。 一、始终牢记习近平总书记殷切嘱托，奋力谱写中国式现代化建设河北篇章 习近平总书记对河北充满深情、寄予厚望，党的十八大以来11次视察河北，发表一系列重要讲话，作出一系列重要指示，为我们提供了强大思想 政治引领和科学行动指南。"十四五"时期，面对复杂严峻的外部环境和艰巨繁重的改革发展稳定任务，河北省委坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社 会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻落实习近平总书记重要指示精神和党中央决策部署，团结带领全省广大党员干部群众，牢记嘱托、感恩奋进，深刻 领悟"两个确立"的决定性意义，增强"四个意识"、坚定"四个自信"、做到"两个维护"，解放思想、奋发进取，抓住用好重大国家战略宝贵机遇， 推动全省经济社会发展取得新的重大成就，许多方面发生令人鼓舞的可喜变化，"十四五"规划目标任务即将完成，中国式现代化在燕赵大地展现 出勃勃生机。 （1） ...

Core Points - A batch of important national standards has been approved and released by the State Administration for Market Regulation, covering emerging fields, transportation, green low-carbon initiatives, safety production, and trade services [1][2][3][4] Emerging Fields - 167 national standards related to rare earth permanent magnet materials, fine ceramics, and carbon fiber composite materials have been published to promote the iteration and transformation of new material technologies [1] - 4 national standards concerning intelligent computing have been released, focusing on terminology, reference architecture, and testing methods to support industrial upgrades through artificial intelligence [1] - 14 national standards for semiconductor equipment and materials have been introduced, addressing electronic components and integrated circuit packaging testing to aid the healthy development of the semiconductor industry [1] Transportation and Green Low-Carbon - 3 national standards for urban rail transit vehicle alarm information and signal systems have been published to enhance public rail transport safety [2] - 30 national standards related to unmanned aerial vehicle registration, road traffic signs, and gas vehicles have been released to support safe transportation development [2] - 22 national standards for kitchen waste treatment equipment, waste incineration equipment, and greenhouse gas management systems have been introduced to improve the green low-carbon standard system [2] Safety Production - 22 national standards for gas transmission and distribution equipment, pressure pipelines, and small amusement facilities have been published to strengthen the safety and stability of infrastructure and public places [2] - Mandatory national standards for fireworks safety and quality have been released to enhance safety performance requirements [2] - 11 mandatory national standards for key fire-fighting products have been updated to improve performance and reliability through enhanced quality control [2] Trade Services - 3 national standards for cross-border e-commerce and e-commerce platform transaction information have been published to guide risk prevention and independent site construction [3] - 5 national standards for logistics documents and multi-modal transport have been introduced to enhance the standardization of logistics services [3] - National standards for the Chinese translation of geographical names from Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Thailand have been released to support trade and cultural exchanges with Nordic and ASEAN countries [3] Agriculture and Rural Development - 30 national standards for feed, pesticides, animal health, fertilizers, and soil conditioners have been published to ensure agricultural production safety [3] - 46 national standards for grain, tobacco, and biomass materials have been introduced to support high-quality agricultural product supply [3] - 7 national standards for water-saving irrigation and agricultural product trading have been released to enhance agricultural production standardization [3] Daily Life - 10 national standards for smart home appliances and their materials have been published to promote the intelligence, greenness, and safety of home appliances [3] - 13 national standards for textiles and footwear have been introduced to guide production and enhance consumer experience [3] - 6 national standards for medical health, including iodine deficiency disease elimination, have been released to strengthen healthcare service guarantees [3] Additional Standards - The State Administration for Market Regulation has also released national standards in areas such as intelligent manufacturing, semiconductor equipment, and enterprise safety management [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities indicates that as the year-end approaches, market participants are increasingly focused on next year's economic outlook, with current economic conditions having a diminished impact on stock prices. Historical analysis since 2016 shows a strong positive correlation between industry performance rankings in the year-end market and their earnings growth in the following year, while the correlation with current earnings growth is weak or even negative [1]. Group 1: High Prosperity Industries - High prosperity industries for the next year, expected to have a net profit growth rate of over 30%, include AI hardware (communication equipment, consumer electronics, semiconductors), new energy (batteries, wind power equipment), military industry (ground armaments), and IT services [4]. - Other high prosperity sectors include electronics (components, optical optoelectronics), downstream AI (gaming, software development), automotive (passenger and commercial vehicles), military (naval and aerospace equipment, military electronics), automation equipment, and photovoltaic equipment [4]. - Industries expected to see a net profit growth rate of 10%-30% with improving economic conditions include pharmaceuticals (chemical pharmaceuticals, medical devices, biological products), downstream AI (digital media, computer equipment), machinery (engineering machinery, specialized equipment, general equipment), and new energy (grid equipment, motors) [4]. Group 2: Cyclical Industries - Cyclical industries expected to have high prosperity next year, with a net profit growth rate of over 30%, include aviation airports, building materials (glass fiber, plastics, non-metallic materials), new metal materials, and agriculture (planting and breeding) [6]. - Other cyclical sectors anticipated to see high prosperity include energy metals, chemical fibers, rubber, retail, and leisure foods [7]. - Industries projected to achieve a net profit growth rate of 10%-30% with improving economic conditions include new consumption (beverages, dairy products, accessories, entertainment products, cosmetics, personal care products, small home appliances), service consumption (education, hotel catering, tourism), agriculture (feed), chemicals (chemical raw materials, chemical products), special steel, and renovation materials [7].

Core Points - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has achieved significant accomplishments despite complex international and domestic challenges, laying a solid foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development, innovation, and the establishment of a modern industrial system, focusing on intelligent and green upgrades of traditional industries and the growth of strategic emerging industries [1][18] - The plan aims to expand domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, with a focus on boosting consumption and effective investment [1][26] Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, requiring efforts to consolidate advantages and overcome bottlenecks [7][8] - The plan highlights the importance of a modern industrial system as the material and technical foundation for Chinese-style modernization, emphasizing the need for intelligent, green, and integrated development [18] - The plan outlines the necessity of enhancing the national innovation system and improving self-reliance in technology to drive new quality productivity [22][23] Group 2 - The plan stresses the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation for building a new development pattern, focusing on consumer spending and effective investment [26][27] - It emphasizes the need for a high-level socialist market economy system to ensure sustainable high-quality development [29] - The plan includes measures to enhance the quality of life for citizens, improve income distribution, and strengthen social security systems [2][10] Group 3 - The plan aims to promote green development and national security, with specific targets for carbon peak and the establishment of a new energy system [2][17] - It outlines the importance of regional coordinated development and optimizing the economic layout to enhance overall national competitiveness [41][42] - The plan includes initiatives to foster cultural innovation and development, enhancing the influence of Chinese culture globally [45][47]

Group 1 - The APEC Business Travel Card is enhancing the ability of companies in Rizhao to expand into international markets, particularly in Asia-Pacific, with significant increases in orders reported by local businesses [1][2] - The card simplifies visa processes, reducing project connection times by 40% and lowering new customer acquisition costs by 25%, demonstrating its effectiveness in facilitating business operations [1] - The number of APEC Business Travel Cards issued in Rizhao has increased by 50% compared to the previous year, indicating a growing recognition of its benefits among local enterprises [1] Group 2 - Rizhao's foreign affairs office is extending its support to local enterprises throughout the entire process of going overseas, including training on project approvals and visa applications for international projects [2] - The office is fostering partnerships with cities in Europe, such as Nîmes in France and Kovačica in Serbia, to create a cooperative network that enhances business opportunities for local companies [3] - Collaborative initiatives are being organized to connect local businesses with international markets, including participation in agricultural cooperation dialogues with the UK and discussions with South Korean representatives [3] Group 3 - The Rizhao foreign affairs office is exploring new pathways for integrating foreign affairs resources with local industries, such as tourism, tea production, and low-altitude economy projects [4] - Joint efforts with tourism departments aim to attract international visitors, while collaborations in the tea industry focus on production and product development with Japanese and Korean cities [4] - Future plans include enhancing the APEC Business Travel Card's accessibility and expanding the application of "foreign affairs +" to support local economic development [4]

Core Points - The article highlights the significant achievements and goals of China's economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing high-quality development and technological self-reliance [2][8][40] Economic Growth - China's GDP is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, with an average growth rate of 5.5% during the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6] - The country has maintained a contribution rate of around 30% to global economic growth, positioning itself as a stable and reliable driver of world economic development [6] Manufacturing Sector - The added value of China's manufacturing industry has consistently exceeded 30 trillion yuan annually, maintaining its status as the world's largest manufacturing sector for 15 consecutive years [7] - The growth rates for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors are projected at 9% and 8.7% respectively from 2020 to 2024 [7] Domestic Consumption - From 2021 to 2024, domestic demand contributed an average of 86.8% to economic growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 59.9% [19][20] - China remains the second-largest consumer market globally and the largest online retail market [20] Technological Innovation - The number of global top 100 technology innovation clusters has reached a leading position, with over 460,000 high-tech enterprises [13] - R&D expenditure is expected to increase by 12 billion yuan, with the intensity of R&D investment rising to 2.68%, nearing the OECD average [14] Social Development - By 2024, the per capita disposable income of rural residents is projected to reach 23,119 yuan, reflecting a steady increase in farmers' income [22] - The urban employment rate remains stable, with over 12 million new jobs created annually [34] Environmental Progress - Forest coverage has increased to over 25%, contributing significantly to global greening efforts [38] - The proportion of good water quality in surface water monitoring points is 90.4%, with air quality maintaining a favorable level [38]

Core Points - Turkey's government has announced an economic plan for 2026-2028, focusing on balanced growth, price stability, resilience, and sustainable prosperity [1][3] - The GDP growth targets for the next three years are set at 3.8% for 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 5% for 2028, with inflation expected to decrease from 16% in 2026 to 8% in 2028 [1][2] - The current account deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to decline from 1.3% in 2026 to 1% in 2028, indicating a policy direction towards strengthening external balance [1] Economic Indicators - The economic growth rate for 2025 is estimated at 3.3%, with an inflation rate of 28.5% and a current account deficit of approximately 1.4% of GDP [1] - Tourism revenue is expected to rise from $64 billion in 2023 to $75 billion by 2028, while exports are projected to increase from $273.8 billion to $308.5 billion [1] Structural Reforms - The plan outlines key structural reforms, including digital transformation, development of high-value-added industries, green economy initiatives, and improved agricultural productivity [2] - Six financial and price stability reform measures will be implemented to create a more robust financial system, aligning price formation mechanisms with inflation levels [2] Inflation Control - The Turkish Vice President emphasized that combating inflation remains a primary goal, with significant progress noted since the implementation of tight monetary and fiscal policies [2] - The annual inflation rate has decreased by 42.5% since June 2024, with the latest data showing a decline to 32.95% in August, marking the 15th consecutive month of decline [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets such as equities next week. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, focus on the new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of further escalation of conflicts before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, and the market may start to pay attention to medium - and long - term marginal changes in the next five years. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are also worth tracking [6]. - **Asset Views**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold. Be cautious about risk assets such as equities next week. In the fourth - quarter medium - term, hold the view of equities > commodities > bonds and watch for buying opportunities in equity assets after the turmoil [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. With crowded funds in small - cap stocks, the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the risk of insufficient liquidity in the options market, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Affected by factors such as policy, fundamental repair, and tariffs, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by dovish expectations, with the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and increased risks to the Fed's independence, the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, the load is under pressure and there is a lack of upward momentum. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel Products**: Poor demand and policy disturbances. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as special bond issuance progress, steel exports, and iron - water production need to be monitored [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, but macro disturbances are increasing. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and the market is temporarily stable. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment need to be watched [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply decreased during the holiday, and downstream replenishment slowed down. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment should be monitored [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and cost support is strong. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as raw material costs and steel procurement need to be considered [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support still exists, but supply and demand are loose, and prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as cost prices and foreign quotes should be watched [7]. - **Glass**: Supply concerns have eased, and intermediate inventories are high. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and spot production and sales need to be monitored [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Production has slightly decreased, and inventories are continuously being transferred. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and soda - ash inventories should be watched [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices continue to be strong. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement, and factors such as supply disturbances, domestic policies, and Fed policies need to be monitored [7]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as ore resumption and electrolytic - aluminum resumption need to be watched [7]. - **Aluminum**: Boosted by macro sentiment, aluminum prices are volatile and strong. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro risks and supply disturbances need to be monitored [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory has returned to accumulation, and zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro risks and zinc - ore supply need to be watched [7]. - **Lead**: With supply - side disturbances and slow battery exports, lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as supply - side disturbances and battery exports need to be monitored [7]. - **Nickel**: The expectation of loose supply and demand remains unchanged, and RKAB quota progress is fluctuating. Nickel prices are widely volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies need to be watched [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, stainless steel prices are volatile and rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as Indonesian policies and demand growth need to be monitored [7]. - **Tin**: Supply disturbances continue, and tin prices are volatile at high levels. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement need to be watched [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The restart rhythm of coal and northwest production is fluctuating, and industrial - silicon prices are volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as supply - side over - reduction and photovoltaic installation need to be monitored [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The expectation of production suspension has ended, and lithium - carbonate prices are under pressure and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as demand and supply disturbances need to be watched [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Affected by macro disturbances, the fundamentals are under continuous pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations need to be monitored [8]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in excess, and the low - valuation situation is difficult to change. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as crude - oil and overseas propane costs need to be watched [8]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are continuously falling, and asphalt futures prices are also falling. The short - term trend is expected to be a downward movement, and factors such as sanctions and supply disturbances need to be monitored [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the expectation of increased production and geopolitical cooling, high - sulfur fuel - oil futures prices are falling. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as geopolitics and crude - oil prices need to be watched [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and crude - oil prices need to be monitored [8]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins but with Iranian disturbances still existing, pay attention to arbitrage opportunities between methanol and olefins. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics need to be watched [8]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, there are insufficient positive factors, and the short - term weakness continues. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as the improvement of Sino - Indian relations and export expectations need to be monitored [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The fundamentals have weak support and the macro sentiment is pessimistic, so prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions need to be watched [8]. - **PX**: Cost collapse drags down the valuation of chemical products. In a situation where supply and demand are both strong, the benefits are mainly volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil, macro abnormalities, and PTA device restarts need to be monitored [8]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation has slightly improved, but costs and macro sentiment have a significant drag, so prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil, macro abnormalities, and the peak - season performance need to be watched [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Costs drag down the absolute price, but the processing fee remains stable under stable supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand need to be monitored [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: The raw - material cost support is weak, and the low - level speculative replenishment demand supports the bottle - chip processing - fee profit. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction target implementation and terminal demand need to be watched [8]. - **Propylene**: Cost decline and the resurgence of tariff games lead to a weak and volatile PL. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices and domestic macro factors need to be monitored [8]. - **PP**: The raw - material end collapses and there are tariff disturbances, so PP prices are falling. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices and domestic and foreign macro factors need to be watched [8]. - **Plastic**: Oil prices have significantly declined, and plastic prices are weak and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as oil prices and domestic and foreign macro factors need to be monitored [8]. - **Styrene**: Inventory pressure is still high, and styrene prices are weak and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics need to be watched [8]. - **PVC**: There is still fundamental pressure, and PVC prices are volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as expectations, costs, and supply need to be monitored [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price can be stopped for profit at low levels. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as market sentiment, production start - up, and demand need to be watched [8]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower - level technical support. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data need to be monitored [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The sentiment boost is limited, and the market continues to be volatile at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as weather, domestic demand, and trade wars need to be watched [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: The pressure of selling new grain is coming, and the spot price drives the futures price to decline significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as demand, macro factors, and weather need to be monitored [8]. - **Pig**: The planned October slaughter volume is increasing, and pig prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies need to be watched [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Although the negative factors have not been realized, the market sentiment remains weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro changes need to be monitored [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The range - bound pattern remains unchanged. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil need to be watched [8]. - **Cotton**: The decline of cotton prices has slowed down. Pay attention to the purchase price. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as demand and inventory need to be monitored [8]. - **Sugar**: Both domestic and foreign sugar prices are weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as imports and Brazilian production need to be watched [8]. - **Pulp**: The game of the virtual - to - real ratio may cause intraday fluctuations, but the effectiveness needs to be observed. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as macro - economic changes and US - dollar - denominated quotes need to be monitored [8]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up need to be watched [8].