file:///C:/Users/x_jin/Documents/xwechat_files/wxid_t3kyw09rokf621_6cab/temp/RWTemp/2025-11/21b1ed5d4bc1c2565721ffec5b461e61/272da4… 1/1 2025/11/25 14:03 272da4d58bc66a97f8bbfd2e47873c56.png (4808×9816) | | | 有色金属周度观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货 | 研究院有色全属团队 | | | 2025/11/25 | | 序号 | 品种 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | | | | 关注高位支撑制性。1)情绪:内外调价震荡,两市调价暂时在ILMO日均钱存在钢性支撑。中长线资金对多肥期价存在强信仰,中短线,市 | | | | | | 场反复交易类联储12月降息概率预期,联储官员言论下下月降息概率预期快速提升。2)国内供需:国内领随矿加工费长单谈判备受关注。 | | | | | | 现货走口铜精矿指数报价在=10美元下方,国内精铜11月产出预 ...

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17025 1973 8.66 三月 17170 1995 11.22 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.72 -123.44 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/24 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 85800 10677 8.07 三月 85680 10676 8.03 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.07 -632.80 现货出口 75.49 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22420 3122 7.18 三月 22400 2987 5.75 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.49 -4097.68 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the technology mainline in the fourth quarter may face pressure, and overseas pressure will be transmitted to the domestic market. In 2026, since the Fed is likely to maintain relative looseness and the diffusion direction of AI themes has not converged, the structural opportunities in 2026 will still revolve around the technology mainline [2][35]. - For convertible bonds, it is recommended to defend in the short - term. The low - price style ended eight consecutive weeks of positive gains last week. The medium - and low - price style may experience a phase of waiting for performance at the meso - level and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm may slow down at the macro - level in the fourth quarter, which will trigger a phased correction of US technology stocks and suppress the domestic technology mainline. Therefore, consider diversification and diffusion in industry styles [2][36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1 Equity Market Declined Overall - From November 17th to November 21st, the equity market declined overall, with all indices closing down. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 1759.86 billion yuan to 18487.98 billion yuan compared with last week, a week - on - week decline of 8.69%. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.90% to 3834.89 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.13% to 12538.07 points, the ChiNext Index fell 6.15% to 2920.08 points, and the CSI 300 fell 3.77% to 4453.61 points. All 31 Shenwan primary industries closed down, with power equipment, basic chemicals, commercial retail, steel, and pharmaceutical biology leading the decline, with declines of 10.54%, 7.47%, 7.24%, 6.98%, and 6.88% respectively [7][9][11]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market Declined Overall - From November 17th to November 21st, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.78% to 482.94 points. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 1 industry closed up, and no industry had a gain of more than 2%. The social services industry led the gains with a 0.31% increase, while non - ferrous metals, coal, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel led the declines, with declines of 1.93%, 1.72%, 1.63%, 1.57%, and 1.35% respectively. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 656.75 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 56.65 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of - 7.94%. About 6.70% of individual convertible bonds rose, about 4.47% had a gain in the range of 0 - 1%, and 0.74% had a gain of more than 2% [7][14]. - In terms of conversion premium rate, the overall market conversion premium rate rebounded this week, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 39.86%, an increase of 2.05 pcts compared with last week. In terms of price intervals, except for the price interval above 120 yuan which widened by 2.27 pcts, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other price intervals narrowed, with the 100 - 110 yuan price interval narrowing the most, by 25.23 pcts. In terms of parity intervals, except for the parity intervals below 90 yuan and 110 - 120 yuan where the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds narrowed, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other parity intervals widened, with the 90 - 100 yuan parity interval widening the most, by 2.70 pcts [19]. - In terms of conversion parity, the parity of 7 industries increased this week, with 2 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2%. The social services, steel, environmental protection, petroleum and petrochemical, and beauty care industries led the gains, with increases of 32.81%, 5.17%, 1.28%, 0.42%, and 0.40% respectively; the electronics, power equipment, food and beverage, non - bank finance, and building materials industries led the declines, with decreases of 4.93%, 4.14%, 4.00%, 3.80%, and 3.71% respectively [29]. 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - From November 17th to November 21st, the week - on - week weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were negative, and the convertible bond market had a smaller weekly decline than the underlying stock market. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 7.94% week - on - week and was at the 57.20% quantile level since 2022; the trading volume of the underlying stock market decreased by 17.87% week - on - week and was at the 84.00% quantile level since 2022. The trading volume of both the underlying stock and convertible bond markets decreased significantly, and the underlying stock market had a larger decline in trading volume and a higher quantile level. In terms of the proportion of rising and falling stocks and bonds, about 11.33% of convertible bonds closed up, and about 5.80% of underlying stocks closed up; about 91.99% of convertible bonds had a larger increase or decrease than underlying stocks. In general, the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market was better this week [30]. 2. Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the short - term, it is still recommended to defend rather than attack in the convertible bond market. Consider diversification and diffusion in industry styles. Diversify by choosing some chemical targets such as Xingfa Convertible Bond, Hebang Convertible Bond, etc.; focus on the diffusion direction of the technology mainline, such as AI edge - side consumer electronics, and recommend targets like Weil Convertible Bond, Luxshare Convertible Bond, etc. Also, small - cap stocks may perform well during the diffusion period, and recommend targets such as Huachen Convertible Bond, Guoli Convertible Bond, etc [2][36]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for conversion parity premium rate repair next week are Hengbang Convertible Bond, Chutian Convertible Bond, etc [2][37].

（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 中金岭南11月21日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，公司作为国内有色金属行 业的重要骨干企业，凭借在铜、铅、锌等传统金属领域的深厚积累，正加速向三稀金属综合回收与高附 加值材料领域战略转型。公司锚定"一体两翼"布局，推动三稀金属业务融入公司全产业链价值提升战略 中。在横向拓展回收品类，从传统铅锌铜伴生的镓、锗、金、银，延伸至铂、钯、铟、碲等稀缺品种； 在纵向延伸产品价值，围绕半导体、新能源等下游需求，开发高端新材料产品。 ...

Group 1 - Non-ferrous stocks experienced a widespread decline, with Luoyang Molybdenum falling by 3.83% to HKD 15.32, Jiangxi Copper down 3.22% to HKD 29.42, Lingbao Gold decreasing by 2.8% to HKD 15.29, and China Aluminum dropping by 2.51% to HKD 10.86 [1] - The decline in non-ferrous stocks is attributed to the weakened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, as the US dollar index surpassed the 100-point mark [1] - The US Labor Department reported a non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations by more than double, although the combined non-farm employment figures for July and August were revised down by 33,000 [1] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the US unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, marking the highest level since October 2021 [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, while continuing claims reached a four-year high [1] - Following the data release, swap contracts indicated a diminishing likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1]

跨期套利跟踪 2025/11/20 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 460 460 460 410 理论价差 530 959 1396 1833 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 15 35 45 85 理论价差 215 336 457 578 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 150 160 170 195 理论价差 218 337 456 575 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 40 60 40 50 理论价差 211 318 425 532 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 990 1140 1420 1690 锡 5-1 价差 -360 理论价差 6070 期现套利跟踪 2025/11/20 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -430 30 理论价差 - - 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 20 35 理论价差 - - 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/20 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/20 国内价格 ...

过去几年，科技股无疑是投资市场的耀眼明星，人工智能、半导体这些赛道吸引着资金疯狂涌入。 但风向正在悄然转变！ 进入2025年，一个传统板块——有色金属，正以惊人的涨势挑战科技股的"顶流"地位。 截至2025年9月，申万有色金属行业指数年内累计涨幅高达52.84%，在31个申万一级行业中位居涨幅榜第一，超越了长期称雄的通信行业。 9月伊始，市场已经明显看到机构调仓的变化，从高位的科技股转向了有色金属、化工等相对低位板块。 这种转变并非空穴来风，而是基于能源转型带来的长期刚性需求、供给端持续收紧、通胀预期下的资产保值属性以及估值优势凸显这四大硬逻辑的支撑。 有色金属，这个曾经的"老周期"，如今正凭借其"需求实打实增长"的坚实基本面，展现出比科技股更高的性价比。 全球主要经济体都在发力"新基建"和"能源转型"，中国的"双碳"目标、欧美的"绿色新政"，都离不开大量有色金属资源的支撑。 一辆新能源汽车的用铜量是传统燃油车的2-3倍，一套光伏电站的用铝量比传统火电多50%以上，而1GWh锂电池则需要消耗约6000吨锂、2000吨钴和3万吨 镍。 国际能源署（IEA）预测，到2040年，全球新能源关键金属如锂、钴、镍等的需 ...

Group 1 - Company Huayou Cobalt (SH 603799) announced the completion of a share pledge of 5 million shares by its controlling shareholder Huayou Holdings [1] - As of the announcement date, Huayou Holdings holds approximately 309 million shares, accounting for 16.28% of the total share capital, with a cumulative pledge of about 116 million shares, representing 37.72% of its holdings and 6.14% of the total share capital [1] - Together with its concerted party, Mr. Chen Xuehua, Huayou Holdings and its affiliates hold approximately 391 million shares, which is 20.63% of the total share capital, with a cumulative pledge of about 143 million shares, accounting for 36.54% of their total holdings and 7.54% of the total share capital [1] Group 2 - For the fiscal year 2024, Huayou Cobalt's revenue composition is as follows: lithium battery new materials account for 47.17%, non-ferrous metals account for 33.35%, trade and others account for 17.4%, and other businesses account for 2.08% [1] - The current market capitalization of Huayou Cobalt is 117.3 billion yuan [2]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - Non - manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 50.1%, up from 50% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] - In September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.5%, 7.2%, and 8.4% respectively [1] - In September 2025, CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year [1] - In September 2025, exports and imports increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China conducts license reviews on rare earths and related items in accordance with laws and regulations, aiming to ensure the security and stability of the global industrial and supply chains [2] - After the gold tax policy adjustment on November 1st, the Shenzhen Shuibei gold market has experienced "pricing chaos", with the gap between purchase and recycling prices widening significantly [2] - On November 6th, 32 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 36 had negative basis [3] 2.2 Metals - On November 6th, international precious metal futures generally closed lower due to the Fed's stance on inflation and monetary policy [4] - Many institutions believe that a new cycle of resource commodities may have begun [5] - On November 6th, LME nickel cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 7,218 tons, the largest decline since May [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Multiple provinces and cities have issued air pollution prevention and control action plans for the autumn and winter of 2025 - 2026, with some steel enterprises facing production restrictions [7] - The US has included copper in its 2025 list of critical minerals [7] - Indonesia has stopped approving applications for nickel ore processing plants producing certain intermediate products [7] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On November 6th, the main contract of US crude oil closed lower due to concerns about supply surplus and weak demand [8] - A new safety standard for chemical enterprises' flammable liquid atmospheric storage tank areas will be implemented on April 30, 2026 [8] - Saudi Aramco has lowered its crude oil selling prices to Asia for December [8] 2.5 Agricultural Products - Market regulatory authorities are soliciting public opinions on the "List of First - Time Non - Penalty for Administrative Violations in Market Supervision (II)" and the "List of Non - Penalty for Minor Administrative Violations in Market Supervision (II)" [10] - Malaysian enterprises will ensure the supply of raw materials for local sustainable aviation fuel plants [10] - Germany's grain corn production in 2025 is expected to decrease by 3.5% year - on - year [11] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On November 6th, the central bank conducted 928 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [12] 3.2 Important News - China aims to achieve the goals of Hainan Free Trade Port construction, expanding institutional opening - up and promoting the cross - border flow of production factors [13] - The Dutch government is responsible for the escalation of the global supply chain crisis regarding the Anshi Semiconductor issue [13] - Most multinational enterprises are confident in the Chinese market, with an increasing proportion optimistic about China's economic growth in the next 3 - 5 years [14] - A polysilicon industry consolidation may be on the way, with a planned fund of about 70 billion yuan [15] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to improve the central bank system and the "dual - pillar" regulatory framework of monetary and macro - prudential policies [16] - The US employment situation is severe, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [20] - The UK central bank maintained its interest rate at 4%, with increased internal divergence [20] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - A - share strength put pressure on the bond market, with bond yields generally rising and some bond prices falling [22] - Convertible bond indices showed mixed performance, with some bonds rising and others falling [23] - US and European bond yields generally declined [26] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on November 6th, and the US dollar index fell [27] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Securities warns of potential risks in overseas AI development, especially during the transition period [28] - CITIC Securities expects the real estate market to stabilize in 2026, and some enterprises may see the bottom of the profit cycle [28] - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that floating - rate bonds have advantages and the market may expand [29] - UBS Group analyzes the potential impact of a possible US Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariff policy [29] 4. Stock Market News - A - shares rose unilaterally, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points, and the computing power hardware industry chain booming [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related indices rose, with some new stocks breaking their issue prices [32] - MSCI China Index added 26 stocks and removed 20 stocks in its November adjustment [32] - China Securities Index Company will release new indices on November 7th [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for multiple non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 7, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 7, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86030, the LME spot price was 10736, with a spot import equilibrium ratio of 8.09 and a loss of 384.81 for spot import, while there was a profit of 524.53 for spot export. The domestic three - month price was 86350, the LME three - month price was 10767, and the ratio was 7.97 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22490, the LME spot price was 3159, with a ratio of 7.12. The domestic three - month price was 22710, the LME three - month price was 3055, and the ratio was 5.69. The spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.51, and the loss for spot import was 4386.00 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21360, the LME spot price was 2857, with a ratio of 7.47. The domestic three - month price was 21665, the LME three - month price was 2872, and the ratio was 7.46. The spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.33, and the loss for spot import was 2439.70 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 121850, the LME spot price was 14891, with a ratio of 8.18. The spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.18, and the loss for spot import was 2113.55 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17200, the LME spot price was 2007, with a ratio of 8.58. The domestic three - month price was 17450, the LME three - month price was 2022, and the ratio was 11.15. The spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.73, and the loss for spot import was 292.83 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 7, 2025, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 20, 50, 50, and 20 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 534, 965, 1406, and 1846 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 45, 80, 85, and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 338, 460, and 583 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 35, 70, 80, and 90 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 339, 459, and 579 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 60, 80, 75, and 65 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 428, and 535 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 270, 490, 710, and 970 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was - 750, and the theoretical spread was 5863 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 7, 2025, the spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 335 and 355 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 250 and 729 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 140 and 185 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 132 and 263 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 170 and 230 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 132 and 246 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On November 7, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.80, 3.99, 4.95, 0.95, 1.24, and 0.77 respectively, and for London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.51, 3.76, 5.26, 0.93, 1.40, and 0.67 respectively [5]