雪上加霜的是，日本首相高市早苗在国会发表的错误恶劣言论引发中日关系紧张，中方发布的旅游警示 与留学预警使得日本旅游业遭遇寒流。日本野村综合研究所有研究员估算，此举可能导致日本损失115 亿美元至140亿美元旅游收入，拖累GDP增速0.29个至0.36个百分点。日本股市的百货、运输板块股票大 幅下跌，中日民间交流活动延期或取消，进一步压缩了日本经济的回旋空间。 上周，日本经济拉响警报，再度出现负增长。数据下滑的直接原因是美国关税政策对日本汽车等支柱产 业出口造成打击。同时，日本经济长期积累的结构性矛盾与短期政治风险交织，使得高市早苗政府试图 通过大规模财政刺激"破局"的举措显得力不从心。 11月17日，日本内阁府公布的初步统计数据显示，今年三季度，日本实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率 计算下降1.8%，自2024年一季度以来再次出现负增长，直接诱因是外需急剧收缩。数据显示，外需对 三季度日本经济增长的贡献为－0.2个百分点。 今年以来，美国对日本输美商品加征关税，尤其是将汽车关税从2.5%提升至15%，令日本相关产业遭遇 重创，特别是汽车产业链上下游的订单萎缩和经济衰退形成恶性循环。 内需不振也是日本经济长期低 ...

文 | 古书奇谭 编辑 | 古书奇谭 2024年中美GDP呈现诡异反差，汇率换算下中国18.74万亿美元对上美国29.18万亿美元，看似差距拉大，但购买力平价（PPP）核算中，中国38.19万亿国 际元较美国高出31%，达1.31倍。 鲜为人知的是，2016年中国PPPGDP就以19.65万亿国际元反超美国，为何两种算法差这么多？8年从反超到拉开31%差距，未来真能如马斯克所言达美国 两到三倍？ 汇率GDP的失真陷阱 全球默认用汇率换算的美元GDP衡量经济规模，可这种方式有个致命缺陷，完全忽略各国物价差异，这也是中国经济长期被低估的关键。 生活里的例子最直观，美国纽约、洛杉矶的男性理发，一次要30-60美元，而中国北京、上海、深圳的同档次服务，也就30-60元人民币。 同样的服务体验，按实际能买到的东西算，人民币和美元这会儿几乎是1:1，但换算成美元GDP时，中国理发行业创造的价值就硬生生变成了美国的七分 之一。 这种失真在历史上更明显，1987年是中美GDP差距的峰值，按汇率算，中国0.273万亿美元的GDP只相当于美国4.86万亿美元的1/18。 而人均GDP更是只有美国的1/80，这种悬殊让当时不少人都 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook for Chinese enterprises operating in Germany, with potential for increased investment and collaboration opportunities [1][2] Group 1: Revenue Outlook - 43% of surveyed companies expect moderate to strong revenue growth in the coming year, while 46% anticipate their revenue will remain stable year-on-year [1] - 41% of companies plan to expand their workforce, and 42% expect to maintain their current employee levels [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - Over half of the surveyed companies consider Germany as their European headquarters, highlighting its significant role in the global strategy of Chinese enterprises [1] Group 3: Areas of Cooperation - The report identifies digitalization, battery technology, and the automotive industry as the three sectors with the most collaboration potential in Germany [1] Group 4: Investment Environment Concerns - Only 13% of companies view the investment environment in Germany as "favorable" or "very favorable" for the next five years, while 58% rate it as "neutral," indicating a balance of opportunities and risks [1] - Recommendations for improving the investment climate include simplifying administrative procedures, optimizing foreign investment review processes, and enhancing market transparency [1]

Core Insights - The "2025 Xi'an Key Industry Talent Demand Directory" has been released to match talent needs with key pillar industries, digital economy sectors, and future industries in Xi'an [1][2] - The directory includes a total of 214 critical positions, with 115 in key pillar industries, 53 in the digital economy, and 46 in future industries [1] Group 1: Talent Demand by Industry - The electronic information industry has critical positions such as analog IC design engineers and algorithm engineers [1] - The high-end equipment manufacturing sector requires positions like power electronics R&D engineers and mechanical R&D engineers [1] - The automotive industry is looking for embedded development engineers and automotive project managers [1] Group 2: Shortage Position Distribution - High-end equipment manufacturing and digital product service industries have the highest proportion of critical positions, each at 10.3% [1] - The electronic information, aerospace, and new materials and renewable energy industries follow closely, each with a critical position proportion of 9.8% [1] - The automotive industry has a critical position proportion of 7.9%, while digital product manufacturing stands at 6.5%, and both food and biomedicine, as well as hydrogen and energy storage industries, are at 6.1% [1] Group 3: Educational Requirements - Key pillar industries show a broad demand for various educational levels, while future industries have a strong demand for PhD-level talent [2] - The digital economy sector has a relatively balanced educational requirement across different positions [2] - The proportion of critical positions in management, technical R&D, marketing, and professional support roles in key pillar industries is significantly higher than in digital economy and future industries [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Japan's economy has contracted in the third quarter of this year, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports, with a quarter-on-quarter GDP decline of 0.4% and an annualized decline of 1.8% [1] - External demand has significantly affected Japan's economic performance, with exports of goods and services decreasing by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, while imports fell by 0.1% due to weak domestic demand, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [1] - Domestic consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, saw a slight increase of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, while business investment in equipment rose by 1.0%, and public demand increased by 0.5%. However, private residential investment dropped by 9.4%, and inventory changes also hindered domestic demand growth, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing the downward pressure from U.S. tariff policies and ongoing inflation leading to weak consumer spending [2]

Core Insights - Guangxi's foreign trade in the first ten months of this year reached 650.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [1] - Exports amounted to 381.28 billion yuan, growing by 18.3%, while imports were 269.07 billion yuan, increasing by 4.4% [1] - Trade with ASEAN countries showed robust growth, with imports and exports totaling 344.74 billion yuan, a 12.1% increase, accounting for 53% of Guangxi's total foreign trade [1] Trade with ASEAN - Guangxi's trade with the top three ASEAN partners—Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia—grew by 8.4%, 7%, and 53.6% respectively [1] - Trade with Timor-Leste reached 3.405 million yuan, marking a 19.6% increase [1] - The signing of the upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 during the 47th ASEAN Summit is expected to create new opportunities for cooperation in new energy and electronic information industries, intermediate goods trade, and cross-border e-commerce [1] Industrial Performance - Guangxi's industrial economy has shown steady growth, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size maintaining a strong growth momentum [2] - Lithium battery exports surged to 20.54 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 76.6% [2] - The cross-border electronic information industry has driven rapid growth in related product exports, with flat panel display modules, computer accessories, printed circuits, and integrated circuits increasing by 86%, 41.8%, 225.8%, and 8.1% respectively [2] Import Trends - The import value of major commodities rose significantly, with metal ore imports reaching 103.14 billion yuan, a growth of 16.1% [2] - Copper ore imports experienced rapid growth of 27.6%, benefiting from the "bonded mixed mining" policy [2]

Economic Overview - The economic performance report for the first three quarters has been released, showing resilience and progress despite external pressures and internal challenges [2] - 21 provinces have achieved growth rates that either exceed or match the national average of 5.2%, indicating strengthened economic resilience [3] Economic Scale - Guangdong and Jiangsu have both surpassed the 10 trillion yuan mark in GDP, reaching 10,517.698 billion yuan and 10,281.1 billion yuan respectively [2] - The threshold for the top ten economic provinces has increased from 3.7 trillion yuan to 4 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [2] Growth Rates - Tibet leads with a growth rate of 7.1%, while Gansu has maintained a growth rate above the national average for 15 consecutive quarters at 6.1% [3] - The Yangtze River Delta region has shown strong economic performance, with a total economic output exceeding 25 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly one-quarter of the national total [3] Foreign Trade - The foreign trade data for the first three quarters reflects resilience, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Shandong contributing over 80% to the national import and export growth [4] - Zhejiang's foreign trade reached historical highs, with total import and export values surpassing 4 trillion yuan [4] Domestic Demand - The implementation of proactive macro policies has effectively stabilized the economy, with significant growth in consumer spending observed in provinces like Hainan and Henan [5] - Hainan's retail sales grew by 8.6%, while Henan's retail sales increased by 6.2%, showcasing strong consumer demand [5] Innovation and New Industries - Technological innovation is becoming a key driver of high-quality development, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing in regions like Shanghai and Jiangsu [6] - In the central and western regions, industries such as strategic emerging industries in Henan and high-tech manufacturing in Hubei have shown remarkable growth rates [6] Service Sector Development - The modern service industry is accelerating, with significant growth in information technology services in Beijing and research and development revenues in Hunan [7] - The film and television production industry in Henan has seen a dramatic increase in revenue, growing by 107.8% due to the rapid development of the micro-short drama industry [7] Future Outlook - Despite the complex external environment, provinces are actively planning for the fourth quarter to ensure the achievement of annual economic goals [7] - Guangdong and Shanghai have outlined strategies to enhance economic operations and contribute to national economic stability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The vice president of Tibet Lingfeng Automotive Industry Development Co., Ltd., Liu Yong, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law, having voluntarily surrendered to authorities [1] Company Summary - Liu Yong, the vice president of Tibet Lingfeng Automotive Industry Development Co., Ltd., is currently undergoing a disciplinary review by the Lhasa Development Group's Discipline Inspection Commission and an investigation by the Dazi District Supervisory Commission [1]

Core Insights - The consumer willingness index in China for Q3 2025 is reported at 120.6, indicating a mild recovery in consumer sentiment, surpassing the critical threshold of 100, with a slight increase of 0.4 points from the previous quarter [1] Group 1: Consumer Sentiment - The report indicates that "stable expectations" and "strengthened guarantees" are key factors in boosting consumer confidence [1] - The survey covers a wide range of areas from first-tier cities to rural regions, with an effective sample size of 5,000, aimed at tracking changes in consumer confidence, behavior, and willingness [1] Group 2: Recommendations for Improving Consumption - Stronger policy measures are recommended to stabilize consumer expectations [2] - Deepening social security system reforms is suggested, focusing on enhancing healthcare effectiveness and alleviating the pension burden on low- to middle-income groups [2] - Creating an "anti-involution" institutional ecosystem to shift competition from price wars to value creation is advised [2] - Emphasizing the silver economy to transform aging challenges into new consumption opportunities [2] - Promoting deep integration of the cultural and tourism industries, moving from mere sightseeing to immersive experiences [2] - Reconstructing a healthy development ecosystem for the catering industry to balance the interests of platforms, enterprises, and consumers [2] - Recognizing the shift in the automotive industry from an "incremental expansion" era to a "stock optimization" era, with a focus on incentivizing differentiated innovation [2]

Group 1: Party School and Women's Work - The meeting emphasized the importance of adhering to the Party's leadership in the Party School, focusing on high-quality development and modernization in Xi'an [2] - It highlighted the need to enhance women's innovation and entrepreneurship, protect their legal rights, and improve health services for women [2] Group 2: Civil Affairs - The meeting stressed the significance of understanding the deep implications of "Chinese-style modernization, with a focus on people's livelihoods," and the need to strengthen the "four systems" in civil affairs [2] - It called for the implementation of responsibilities to ensure the well-being of citizens and promote the construction of an elderly-friendly society [2] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The meeting recognized the importance of accurately understanding and grasping the trends in automotive industry development, leveraging technological resources and industrial foundations [3] - It emphasized the role of government in creating a favorable ecosystem and enhancing policy support to promote high-quality development in the automotive sector [3] Group 4: Petition Work - The meeting underscored the necessity of meticulous and effective petition work to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the public [4]