2025.07. 30 波音股价下跌4.4%。公司公布第二季度营收为227.5亿美元，优于市场预期的216.8亿美元，但核心 每股亏损1.24美元。公司宣布737项目月产量已达38架，并计划年内提升至42架。尽管亏损收窄，投 资者对其前景仍存疑虑。 默沙东股价收跌1.7%，公司第二季度销售额为158.1亿美元，略高于预期，经调整后每股收益2.13美 元，较去年同期下降。公司表示将在年底前继续暂停向中国出口HPV疫苗Gardasil，并计划通过裁员 节省30亿美元开支。 联合包裹股价暴跌10.6%，公司公布二季度调整后每股收益为1.55美元，略低于预期的1.56美元。公 司未提供全年营收和利润率指引，引发市场对其在全球贸易不确定性下的盈利能力担忧。其股价表现 带动道琼斯运输指数大跌2.3%，创下两个月来最大单日跌幅。 本文字数：2152，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周二收低，标普500指数和纳指从历史高位回落。投资者对即将公布的美联储利率政策声明 保持观望，而部分企业令人失望的财报表现也令市场情绪趋于谨慎。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌204.57点，报44632.99点，跌幅0 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic sales for fiscal year 2025 grew by 2%, with volume growth contributing 1% and price mix adding another 1% [11] - Core earnings per share (EPS) reached $6.83, up 4% year-over-year [14] - Core gross margin declined by 40 basis points, while core operating margin increased by 50 basis points [14] - Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 87%, with $16 billion returned to shareholders, including $10 billion in dividends and $6.5 billion in share repurchases [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nine out of ten product categories experienced organic sales growth, with Family Care and Personal Healthcare growing in the low single digits [11] - Baby Care saw a decline in organic sales in the low singles [11] - E-commerce sales increased by 12%, now representing 19% of total company sales [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Focus markets grew organic sales by 2%, with North America up 2% and Europe focus markets up 3% [12] - Greater China organic sales were down 5% year-over-year but improved sequentially, growing 2% in the most recent quarter [12] - Enterprise markets grew by 2%, led by Latin America with 4% organic sales growth [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on an integrated growth strategy that emphasizes balanced top and bottom line growth and value creation [7][25] - A restructuring program was announced to strengthen execution and improve organizational capabilities [39] - The company aims to capture significant growth opportunities in North America, Europe, and enterprise markets, with potential sales opportunities ranging from $5 billion to $15 billion [24][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging macroeconomic environment, including tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical dynamics, which have impacted category growth [23] - The company expects the market environment to remain volatile and challenging in fiscal year 2026, with guidance for organic sales growth in the range of flat to 4% [45][46] - Management emphasized the importance of creating "tailwinds" through innovation and strategic investments to drive growth [58] Other Important Information - The company plans to reduce up to 7,000 non-manufacturing roles, or roughly 15% of its current non-manufacturing workforce, as part of the restructuring efforts [42] - The transition of leadership from Jon Moeller to Shailesh Jujurukar is planned for January 1, 2026, with a focus on continuity and strategic execution [5][56] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Shailesh's leadership and tailwind creation efforts - Management highlighted Shailesh's extensive experience and leadership capabilities as key to driving future growth and value creation [56][58] Question: Addressing the narrowing performance gap in North America - Management acknowledged the reduction in category growth rates and the need to regain superiority in certain categories to widen the performance gap [65][66] Question: Timing and impact of restructuring on organizational capabilities - Management explained that the restructuring aims to enhance decision-making and efficiency, leveraging technology to break down silos within the organization [81][84]

相较而言，美股大盘倒是没受太大影响。截至发稿，纳斯达克100指数期货（2409合约）涨0.37%，标普500指数期货涨0.17%，道指期货涨0.02%。 算上周 一，标普500指数已经有23个交易日涨跌幅均未超过1%了。 智通财经7月29日讯（编辑 史正丞）在本周美股 "重头戏"开场前，美股市场周二意外迎来了减肥药巨头诺和诺德的冲击。这一场小范围的剧烈波动，也预示 着近期极其缺乏波动性的美股大盘，随时可能展开惊涛骇浪。 周二盘前，前"欧洲股王"诺和诺德显著下调本财年业绩指引后，股价一度疯狂跳水超26%，一举击穿了过去三年的低点。 （诺和诺德日线图，来源：TradingView） "全球股王"英伟达延续美股龙头的风范。受到一系列需求传闻带动，公司股价盘前又涨超1%，势将再度冲击新高。 （英伟达日线图，来源：TradingView） 与此同时，美元也在市场焦点的变化下走强，升至近5周新高。 三菱日联金融集团的全球市场研究主管德里克·哈尔彭尼解读称："至少目前，外汇市场参与者的关注点已经从贸易不确定性转向美国经济的韧性，这显然促 使一些在上半年积累的美元空头头寸被平仓。" （美元指数日线图，来源：TradingVi ...

Core Insights - Procter & Gamble reported quarterly results that exceeded Wall Street expectations but provided fiscal year 2026 guidance that includes a $1 billion impact from higher tariff costs [1][3]. Financial Performance - For fiscal fourth quarter, Procter & Gamble reported net income of $3.62 billion, or $1.48 per share, compared to $3.14 billion, or $1.27 per share, a year earlier [4]. - Net sales increased by 2% to $20.89 billion, with organic sales also rising by 2% [5][7]. - Earnings per share of $1.48 surpassed the expected $1.42 [7]. Future Guidance - The company anticipates fiscal year 2026 sales growth between 1% and 5%, with earnings per share projected in the range of $6.83 to $7.09 [3]. - The guidance includes an estimated headwind of 39 cents per share for fiscal 2026, equating to a 6% drag on core earnings per share growth due to tariffs, unfavorable commodity costs, and higher net interest expenses [3]. Management Changes - CEO Jon Moeller announced that he will transition to the role of executive chairman effective January 1, with Shailesh Jejurikar set to replace him as CEO [2]. Market Reactions - Analysts had expected revenue growth of 3.1% and earnings per share of $6.99 for fiscal year 2026 [4]. - The company's stock has declined approximately 6% year to date, with concerns raised by analysts regarding soft organic sales and share losses within online retail [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the challenges faced by brands in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market in China due to demographic shifts and economic transformation, leading to a "growth fog" where investments yield unclear results and new products struggle to gain traction [1][2] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer insights to drive brand growth, focusing on the need to identify key dimensions for enhancing brand penetration rates [3][6] - It discusses the necessity for brands to adapt to the multi-channel shopping behavior of consumers, who now typically engage with an average of seven shopping channels annually, balancing price sensitivity and convenience [5][6] Group 2 - The article raises questions about how product innovation can break through the homogenization of competition in the FMCG market, suggesting a need for a strategic approach to product launches that balances quantity and quality [6] - It mentions the release of the 2025 China market brand rankings based on the "Global Brand Footprint Report," which will reveal the growth strategies of leading brands that have successfully navigated market cycles [6][8] - The event aims to explore collaborative growth strategies across channels, providing insights into how brands can achieve sustainable development amidst market volatility [2][5]

中央经济工作会议和今年政府工作报告提出整治"内卷式"竞争，下半年"反内卷"将是重要政策议题。7月1日中央财经委员会第六次会议提出纵深 推进全国统一大市场建设，治理企业低价无序竞争；7月16日国务院常务会议听取规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序汇报；7月28日全国工业和信息化 主管部门负责同志座谈会提出巩固新能源汽车行业整治成效，加强光伏等重点行业治理。本轮"反内卷"被视为"供给侧改革2.0"，以市场化、法治 化加强行业治理。当前生产端数据显示，更有力度的"反内卷"政策需尽快落地。 "稳住楼市股市"首次写入政府工作报告总要求，4月底中央政治局会议指出持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势、稳定和活跃资本市场。近期政策持续释 放楼市政策加力信号，预计下半年更多稳楼市政策将出台，如一线城市松绑限制性措施、优化地产收储政策等，专家建议从供需端加大调控力 度，适度下调房贷利率等。资本市场上半年经受住冲击，下半年应综合运用工具增强支持调控，中国证监会日前召开会议围绕巩固市场态势等方 面进行重点部署。（陈十一） 【环球网财经综合报道】近期多部门密集行动，透露下半年政策主线聚焦扩内需、"反内卷"、稳楼市股市。 "全方位扩大国内需求"是今年重点任 ...

7月28日，2025世界人工智能大会在上海闭幕。今年的世界人工智能大会展览面积首次突破7万平方米，吸引800余家企业参展，其中上海市外及国际企业 占比超50%，不仅越来越多的广州企业加入到这场盛会，也有越来越多上海企业将目光投向广州。 作为一家"内容+人工智能"独角兽企业，特赞科技于2015年由设计人工智能的代表性研究者范凌教授在上海创立，致力于开发企业级内容人工智能平台， 帮助企业实现更高效、更优质的内容管理、生产、分析和分发，目前已为100多家世界500强企业提供人工智能平台，服务了10万个小微企业和个人，其中 包括宝洁、美的、安克创新、玛氏等在内几十家广州企业。 "我们观察到，中国制造正面临一个结构性机会：一端是拥有创意和多样化需求的新消费人群；另一端是具备产能但难以响应柔性化需求的中小工厂，两 者之间存在明显的供需错位。"黑湖科技联合创始人肖哲介绍，新消费人群带来了订单形态的变化——商品最小库存单位（SKU）不断增加，小批量、多 品类、定制化的"非主流"订单正在成为主流。尽管这类订单附加值更高，但并非传统制造模式所能承接，对产线协同提出了更高要求，中小工厂在面对频 繁切换任务时，甚至会陷入亏损。"为此 ...

美股盘初，主要行业ETF涨跌不一，半导体ETF涨超1%，能源业ETF涨近1%，公用事业ETF跌超1%。 | 行业类 V | 当前价 ◆ | 涨跌幅 ÷ | 成交量 ÷ | 总市值 = 年初至今 = | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 半导体ETF --- | 290.69 | +3.20 (+1.11%) | 73.72万股 | 34.36亿 +20.04% | | = == | | us SMH | | | | | | | | 能源业ETF - ... | 87.86 | ↑ +0.76 (+0.87%) | 188.05万股 | 220.01亿 | +4.20% | 를 " | | us XLE | | | | | | | | 科技行业ET ... | 263.36 | ↓ +1.37 (+0.52%) | 52.79万股 | 837.63亿 +13.65% | | n … | | us XLK | | | | | | | | 全球科技股 ... | 95.80 | +0.28 (+0.30%) | 22994股 | 13.41亿 +13 ...

核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 工业盈利仍有压力 ❖ 工业企业仍然"增收不增利"：2025 年 6 月，规模以上工业企业实现利润 总额同比下降 4.3%，降幅较 5 月收窄 4.8 个百分点，工业企业盈利仍有压 力，其中以装备工业为代表的中游行业利润增长较快。6 月工业生产的韧性未 能对冲价格及利润率的拖累，经我们测算，6 月利润率对工业企业利润增速造 成了 6.9 个百分点的拖累，虽然较 5 月拖累幅度（-10.2 个百分点）边际缩 小，但企业利润率仍然在下降。 ❖ 下半年，企业盈利仍有压力：下半年美国需求可能会被前期"抢进口"透 支，参考上一轮中美贸易摩擦，2018 年-2019 年工业企业利润率连续两年下 滑，直到疫情后才有所改善。此外，关税毕竟增加了企业的成本，无论是直接 承担的关税，还是转口贸易等额外的摩擦成本，都将侵蚀工业企业的利润水 平。当前多个行业正在推动"反内卷"，上游控产提价的情况下，下游需求偏 弱的行业利润空间可能会被进一步压缩。 ❖ 装备制造业相对更具韧性：自 2025 年 4 月以来，利润率韧性方面，上游 采矿业>下游消费品制造业>中游装备制造业>公用事业>中游中间品，但是 细 ...

又一周，又一个关税最后期限。这次是8月1日周五，除非宣布新的贸易协议或延长截止日期，否则美国 将对欧盟、加拿大和墨西哥等关键贸易伙伴加征关税。 我们接触的客户对关税话题确实已感厌倦，这种情绪可以理解。截止期限来了又走，关税虽未升至威胁 过的最高水平但持续攀升，而经济数据和市场并未崩溃。因此人们很容易认为美国贸易政策已无法撼动 市场。 请抵制这种诱惑。关税的演变仍能创造压力与机遇。三大理由如下： 让我们从美国经济情景分析开始： 贸易引致经济放缓的概率达40%。考虑到当前有效关税税率，若8月对重要贸易伙伴进一步 加税——其中多个伙伴已对既往贸易威胁实施反制措施——很容易导致经济滑向温和衰退。 总之，我们认为美国经济结果偏向放缓，但随着财政状况和赤字问题提前明朗化，严重衰退 风险正在降低。这符合我们对各类资产的核心观点，尽管不同市场对这些结果的敏感度存在 差异。 对于固定收益市场，我们重点关注利率。关税引发的经济放缓应会触发美国国债价格上涨， 因美联储转向鸽派立场的预期日益增强。我们预计，同一动态将推动美元重启今年早些时候 开始的贬值趋势，同时海外投资者对冲美元过度敞口的动机增强也将助推这一进程。 股市同样面临差异 ...