中原证券表示，未来化工行业的投资思路上，一方面建议关注受益反内卷政策下，供给端改善空间较 大，行业盈利弹性较大的板块，包括农药、有机硅、涤纶长丝、氨纶行业；另一方面建议关注美联储降 息背景下，具有较强资源属性的钾肥和磷化工行业。 从估值方面来看，当前化工板块仍具配置性价比。数据显示，截至昨日（11月25日）收盘，化工ETF （516020）标的指数细分化工指数市净率为2.28倍，位于近10年来37.96%分位点的相对低位，中长期配 置性价比凸显。 化工板块今日（11月26日）震荡盘整。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘持续低位震 荡，随后有所拉升，截至发稿，场内价格涨0.13%。 成份股方面，民爆制品、钾肥、磷化工等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，广东宏大大涨超4%，亚 钾国际、盐湖股份双双涨超3%，宏达股份、扬农化工、藏格矿业等多股跟涨超1%。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 · | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 露加 九泉 酒线 工具 @ 2 > | | 《TETF O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，预计2026年Brent原油价格运行区间为60-70美元/桶，成 本端有望逐步止跌企稳。2024年以来化工行业资本开支迎来负增长，随着"反内卷"浪潮袭来及海外落后 产能加速出清，供给端有望收缩。"十五五"规划建议稿"坚持扩大内需"为未来五年定调，叠加美国降息 周期开启，化工品需求空间打开。该行认为，供需双底基本确立，政策预期强力催化，2026年化工行业 或迎周期拐点向上，开启从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 综合整治内卷式竞争，积极把握周期反转机会 赋能新质生产力，掘金新材料蓝海 1)PTA景气低位运行，行业反内卷呼声渐起，建议关注恒力石化、荣盛石化、新凤鸣、桐昆股份等。2) 涤纶长丝产能趋于集中，行业自律激发周期弹性，建议关注新凤鸣、桐昆股份、恒逸石化等。3)氨纶否 极泰来，行业集中度有望加速提升，建议关注华峰化学、新乡化纤。4)农药全球需求好转，底部价格品 种或迎反弹，建议关注扬农化工、润丰股份、江山股份、广信股份、利尔化学等。5)有机硅产能扩张步 入尾声，行业供需格局有望改善，建议关注合盛硅业、新安股份、东岳硅材等。6)挑战与 ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 科技周期再平衡，反内卷下化工机会凸显 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 | 韦冀星（分析师） | 金益腾（分析师） | 简宇涵（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | weijixing@kysec.cn | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | jianyuhan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524030002 | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790525050005 | 策略：双轮驱动下，科技与周期再平衡 从 10 月最后一周开始，我们观点发生变化：双轮驱动下，科技与周期再平衡， 反内卷下周期机会凸显。三个原因：①从三季报表现来看，科技与周期在 Q3 实 现同步发力——两翼齐飞；②高贝塔行情下，科技今年以来已经累计较多涨幅； ③机构仓位于科技上较为集中，上行较快。我们认为，再平衡阶段或将持续 1-2 个月，但展望 2026 年，风格会相对更加均衡：其中，科技依然具备中长期占优 的条件、顺周期的主要机会在 PPI、红利风格在 2026 年会优于 2025 年。 A 股继续下行的产能周期当中，反内卷下化工机会 ...

行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 11 月 22 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：阿克苏诺贝尔和艾仕得宣布合并，商 务部对美产进口正丙醇继续征收反倾销税 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数下跌 3.9%，创业板指数下跌 6.15%， 沪深 300 下跌 3.77%，中信基础化工指数下跌 8.24%，申万化工指数下跌 7.47%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为橡 胶助剂(1.75%)、钾肥(-1.21%)、轮胎(-2.84%)、改性塑料(-4.32%)、膜材料 (-5.19%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为绵纶(-14.92%)、涤纶(-11.88%)、 钛白粉(-10.68%)、粘胶(-10.33%)、农药(-10.09%)。 本周行业主要动态： 阿克苏诺贝尔和艾仕得宣布合并。11 月 18 日，全球两大涂料巨头阿克 苏诺贝尔和艾仕得联合宣布，两家公司已达成最终协议，将进行股票合并， 创建一家全球领先的涂料公司，年收入达 170 亿美元（约合人民币 1209 亿 元）。两家公司表示，合并后的公司业务涵盖粉末、航空航天、修补漆、 移 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyuan Securities maintains a "market perform" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements and resource attributes under the backdrop of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved total revenue of 19,924.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.69%, and a net profit of 1,170.62 billion yuan, up 7.58% year-on-year, indicating a continued recovery in industry profitability [2] - All 18 sub-industries within the basic chemical sector reported year-on-year revenue and profit growth, with significant differentiation among them, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and demand recovery [3] Group 2: Profitability Trends - The basic chemical industry's gross margin and net margin have shown signs of recovery since early 2024, with gross margin at 17.69% and net margin at 6.17% in the first three quarters of 2025, both reflecting slight year-on-year increases [4] - Sub-industries such as fluorine chemicals, potash fertilizers, synthetic resins, chlor-alkali, and compound fertilizers have experienced notable improvements in profitability [4] Group 3: Financial Indicators - The basic chemical industry maintains a stable financial position, with a slight decrease in the asset-liability ratio, improved operating cash flow, and a decline in construction projects [5] - Inventory turnover days have increased slightly year-on-year, indicating changes in inventory management [5] Group 4: Regional Performance - Chemical enterprises in Henan province underperformed compared to the overall industry, with revenues of 564.21 billion yuan and 188.98 billion yuan in the first three quarters and third quarter respectively, reflecting declines of 2.21% and 1.03% year-on-year [6] - Net profits for Henan's chemical companies also fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.33% and 26.70% for the respective periods [6]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a decline on November 21, with the Chemical ETF (516020) dropping over 4% at one point and closing down 2.84% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Enjie Co., Ltd. and Tianqi Lithium, saw significant losses, with Enjie hitting the daily limit down and Tianqi falling over 8% [1][2] - The Chemical ETF has shown a year-to-date increase of 30.5%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (17.28%) and the CSI 300 Index (16.01%) [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical industry has faced a continuous decline in product prices for four years, but recent policies aimed at reducing competition may signal a turning point [3][4] - The current price-to-book ratio of the Chemical ETF is 2.37, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [4] - Analysts suggest that the industry may see improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability due to the "anti-involution" policies, with a focus on sectors like pesticides and organic silicon [5][6] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks [5][6] - Investors are encouraged to consider the Chemical ETF as a more efficient way to gain exposure to the chemical sector [5][6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese market, focusing on various sectors including technology, manufacturing, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods [1][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The index is expected to rise to 4,200-4,300 points from December to February, driven by product structure adjustments and increased capital inflow, alongside supportive policies from the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][3]. 2. **Valuation Expansion**: The Chinese market is currently in a valuation expansion phase, with reduced fears of sanctions due to changing perceptions of US-China relations and rationalized economic policies [4][6]. 3. **Sector Recommendations**: - **Technology Sector**: Focus on AI, internet, new energy vehicles, electronic semiconductors, and media communications [5]. - **Manufacturing**: Global expansion in power equipment, machinery, and auto parts [5]. - **Aviation**: Strong fundamentals with record high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, indicating a potential super cycle [10]. - **Oil Shipping**: Record high freight rates expected to lead to the highest profits in a decade due to OPEC production increases and geopolitical factors [11]. - **Chemicals**: Optimism for leading companies benefiting from supply-side optimization and cost advantages [3][16]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in food, beverages, and retail sectors, particularly for companies with low stock and strong fundamentals [7][30]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Recovery**: The upcoming year is expected to show a high probability of economic recovery, particularly in traditional sectors like cyclical and consumer goods [6]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with low stock prices and strong fundamentals, especially in the consumer goods sector [7][9]. 3. **Brokerage Role**: Brokerages are anticipated to play a crucial role in market advancement, especially as capital market reforms progress [8]. 4. **Metal Industry Outlook**: Positive expectations for the metal sector, with industrial metals likely to benefit from global liquidity and emerging demands from AI infrastructure and new energy vehicles [18][19]. 5. **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector has seen significant supply-side optimization, with leading companies expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and pricing [13][14][16]. 6. **Oil Market Dynamics**: Current oil market conditions show a supply surplus, but OPEC's cautious production increases are expected to support prices in the medium term [24]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a generally optimistic outlook for the Chinese market across various sectors, with specific recommendations for investment opportunities in technology, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods. The anticipated economic recovery and supportive policies are expected to drive market performance in the coming months.

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector in A-shares continues its strong performance, with specific segments like phosphorus and fluorine chemicals showing positive stock movements, driven by self-regulatory actions to stabilize prices and reduce supply [1] Group 1: Industry Actions - The caprolactam industry has initiated a self-regulatory action to reduce production by 20% to alleviate inventory and price pressures, with plans to increase product prices by 100 yuan per ton [2] - This self-regulation is a response to significant losses in the industry, with losses per ton exceeding 600 yuan in recent months, prompting companies to adopt measures to balance supply and demand [2] - The proactive supply adjustments have led to a negative weekly supply-demand difference, indicating a successful transition into a destocking phase, which is expected to support price stabilization [2] Group 2: Policy Support - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to maintain good market price order, providing strong backing for the industry's self-regulatory actions [3] - The self-regulatory actions in the caprolactam sector are seen as a means to protect market price order and ensure long-term industry health [3] Group 3: Market Confidence - The self-regulatory trend is spreading across various chemical sub-industries, with the polyester filament industry previously adopting a price stabilization strategy [4] - Analysts predict that the polyester filament industry will see a decline in actual production capacity in 2024, leading to a more orderly supply increase [4] - The organic silicon industry is also showing positive self-regulatory trends, with no new capacity expected from 2025 to 2026, indicating a potential for profit recovery [4] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Current sectors such as agrochemicals, refrigerants, bioenergy, tires, and metallic chromium are in an upward cycle, with main business growth expected to remain high [5] - The ongoing push for carbon neutrality is optimizing the supply structure in high-energy-consuming chemical industries, benefiting leading companies with core technological advantages and significant scale effects [5] - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase, enhancing the competitive advantages of leading enterprises [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [11] Core Insights - The chemical industry achieved a revenue of 1,947.86 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 115.78 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year [2][18] - In Q1-Q3 2025, 50.0% of the 30 chemical sub-industries reported year-on-year growth, increasing to 56.7% in Q3 2025 [2][28] - The report highlights a gradual recovery in the industry, with capital expenditures declining by 16.9% and 2.7% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, indicating a slowdown in expansion cycles [2][18] Summary by Sections Overall Operations - The chemical industry experienced a slight revenue increase with a profit growth rate surpassing revenue growth [18] - The gross profit margin for the industry was 16.8%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [18] - The report notes a continued downturn in the domestic real estate market and a slow recovery in consumption [2][18] Key Sub-Industries - **Fluorochemical**: Revenue reached 32.53 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.7% and net profit up 155.6% [9][41] - **Phosphate Chemical**: Revenue was 82.38 billion yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 8.0% to 7.55 billion yuan [49][50] - **Potash Fertilizer**: Revenue grew by 13.1% to 20.77 billion yuan, with net profit rising 57.6% to 9.44 billion yuan [9] - **Pesticides**: Revenue reached 124.65 billion yuan, up 5.6%, with net profit increasing by 131.2% to 6.38 billion yuan [9] - **Soda Ash**: Revenue fell by 15.7% to 30.16 billion yuan, with net profit down 71.5% to 0.99 billion yuan [9] - **Polyurethane**: Revenue decreased by 1.9% to 163.35 billion yuan, with net profit down 16.5% to 9.51 billion yuan [9] - **Titanium Dioxide**: Revenue was 32.92 billion yuan, down 4.2%, with net profit down 46.3% to 1.74 billion yuan [9] - **Polyester Filament**: Revenue decreased by 5.0% to 118.94 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 38.0% to 2.42 billion yuan [9] - **Additives**: Revenue grew by 3.8% to 89.06 billion yuan, with net profit up 30.0% to 12.35 billion yuan [9] - **Civil Explosives**: Revenue increased by 16.6% to 48.83 billion yuan, with net profit up 8.2% to 3.60 billion yuan [9] - **Tires**: Revenue grew by 10.7% to 119.98 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 17.3% to 9.89 billion yuan [9] - **Electronic Chemicals**: Revenue reached 52.97 billion yuan, up 13.1%, with net profit increasing by 22.4% to 6.05 billion yuan [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively positioning in the chemical sector, highlighting cyclical recovery and potential growth in various sub-industries [10][39]

Group 1 - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the importance of effective investment and breaking down barriers to the construction of a unified national market, which may benefit leading companies in the chemical industry [1] - The report highlights that the domestic production rate of electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins is low, indicating potential growth areas for future development [2] - The petrochemical industry faces challenges due to homogeneous production capacity, necessitating stricter management of new refining and key petrochemical projects to avoid disorderly expansion and duplication [3] Group 2 - The refining industry is identified as a key area for governance, with a significant portion of refining capacity in Shandong province, suggesting potential for capacity reduction and benefits for private refining enterprises [4] - The polyester filament industry is proactively implementing production cuts to balance market supply and demand, which may favor leading companies in the sector [4]