Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of global tariffs on trade and economic activity, particularly focusing on the US economy and its interactions with other countries, including China, Japan, and Canada [4][10][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact on US Economy**: - The US imposed broad global tariffs, reaching their highest levels since the 1930s, which has created uncertainty in the market. However, the risk of recession is not the base case due to the strong economy prior to the tariffs [4][10]. - Effective tariff rates are close to 12-13%, with tariff revenues annualizing at approximately $350 billion, representing about 20% of corporate profits in manufacturing and trade sectors [4][10][11]. 2. **Labor Market Dynamics**: - The US labor market is showing signs of slowing, with job growth less than half of last year's pace and real labor income growth nearing zero. This slowdown in labor income is expected to impact consumer spending [4][5][17]. - Despite the slowdown in hiring, there has not been a significant increase in firings, which is typically a precursor to recession [4][17]. 3. **Consumer Spending Resilience**: - Consumer spending has not yet shown a material slowdown, and Q2 GDP was revised upwards. The increases in wealth over recent years are expected to support spending, particularly among higher-income households [4][17]. 4. **Sectoral Strengths and Weaknesses**: - Certain sectors, such as gold, AI-related IT hardware, and pharmaceuticals, have shown resilience and contributed positively to trade numbers. However, this strength may be temporary [10][16]. - Exports from China to the US have significantly decreased, but some economic impacts have been mitigated by rerouting exports through other Asian economies [11][14]. 5. **Global Economic Outlook**: - There is an expectation of a meaningful slowdown in both the US and global economies, with risks of negative GDP growth in countries like Japan and Canada due to trade-related slowdowns [12][13][17]. - Manufacturing PMIs in the Euro area have declined after months of improvement, indicating that trade tensions are beginning to affect the industry [14][15]. Additional Important Insights - The front-loading of exports ahead of tariffs has temporarily deferred some economic challenges, but the long-term effects of tariffs are still uncertain [10][11]. - The combination of strained corporate margins, uneven pass-through of costs, and a softer global capital expenditure environment suggests slower global growth in the coming quarters [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of tariffs on the US economy and global trade dynamics.

中信证券表示，欧洲SAF价格持续上涨，目前已突破2700美元/吨。欧洲提出高额补贴计划，强制添加 政策的执行力度或加强，预计SAF需求将爆发。在2025年上半年欧洲SAF-HVO价格倒挂，国内新增供 给和出口许可证审批进度不及预期，近期在国内外主要SAF工厂密集检修等多因素共同作用下，SAF供 应紧张局面或将延续。此外，欧盟对美国SAF施加反倾销税，对中国生产商形成利好。在SAF的产业化 趋势逐渐明确的背景下，建议关注行业内主要玩家。 据百川盈孚消息，2025年9月22日，SAF(可持续航空燃料)欧洲FOB主流价已涨至2705美元，季度同比增 长21%；同期，SAF中国FOB主流价涨至2400美元，季度同比增长20%。欧洲SAF价格上涨或与完成强 制添加而补库有关。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, emphasized the importance of using intelligence from the Federal Revenue Service to support investigations into fuel smuggling and to curb the illegal importation of fuel by large companies using "shell companies" [1] Group 1: Legislative Measures - Strengthening legislation against habitual tax offenders is a crucial step in combating illegal activities in the fuel sector [1] - The Minister highlighted that the fuel industry, due to its extensive and large-scale operations, has become a focal point for illegal activities [1] Group 2: Recent Actions - During the "Carbon Chain Action" on August 28, authorities seized a number of trucks and fuel, revealing a nationwide money laundering network [1] - The actions taken will not affect compliant businesses; instead, they aim to protect them from unfair competition posed by illegal operators [1] Group 3: Consumer Protection - Consumers may unknowingly purchase illegal fuel, and the recent actions are intended to maintain fairness and safety in the market [1] - The tax authorities collaborated with experts from the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy to analyze fuel samples to confirm their composition and compliance with import regulations [1] Group 4: Future Strategies - Improving relevant laws and fostering interdepartmental cooperation will help address the root causes of illegal fuel imports [1]

Core Insights - Colombia's total exports reached $28.82 billion from January to July 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [1] - The export of fuel products significantly declined by 19.8%, with coal exports down by 35.6% and oil exports down by 15.3%, negatively impacting overall export performance [1] - The United States remains Colombia's largest export destination, accounting for 30.6% of total exports, followed by Panama, the Netherlands, India, Brazil, Ecuador, and China [1] - Exports to China constituted 3.2% of Colombia's total exports, experiencing a year-on-year decline of 41.6%, which reduced its contribution to Colombia's exports by 2.3% [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for the period decreased by 14% to R52 billion, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic environment [15][30] - Free cash flow improved by more than 70% compared to the prior year, reaching almost ZAR 12.6 billion, a 75% increase [33][34] - Net debt was reduced to $3.7 billion, achieving the target of staying under $4 billion, marking the lowest level since 2016 [12][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the South African business, mining EBITDA increased by 15%, while gas EBITDA rose by 35% due to higher gas prices and sales volumes [37] - Fuels segment saw a decline of 38% due to weaker rand oil prices and lower refining margins [37] - International Chemicals increased its share of group adjusted EBITDA from 9% to 15%, driven by improved U.S. Ethylene margins and stronger palm kernel oil pricing [38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The macroeconomic environment was highly volatile, influenced by global tariffs and geopolitical tensions, impacting various business segments differently [32] - The chemical segments benefited from stronger U.S. Ethylene margins and a 5% uplift in the overall chemicals basket price [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on strengthening its foundation, resetting international chemicals, and restoring the South African value chain [8][26] - A commitment to a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 is part of the strategic roadmap, with significant progress in renewable energy initiatives [47][50] - The company aims to improve cash generation to accelerate deleveraging while advancing its growth and transformation agenda [27][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges in the operating environment but expressed confidence in the execution of strategic plans [9][26] - The focus remains on safety, operational reliability, and optimizing capital allocation to navigate ongoing macro volatility [28][41] - Future guidance includes maintaining cost and capital discipline while targeting further reductions in net debt [43][44] Other Important Information - The company invested R600 million in social programs globally, supporting over 250 students and contributing to community infrastructure projects [24][25] - The upcoming retirement of key executives marks a transition in leadership, with new appointments aimed at addressing both short and long-term goals [19][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: CapEx savings and guidance for FY 2026 - The company achieved CapEx below guidance due to a rigorous approach, deferring low-risk activities and optimizing capital spend [56][64] - Guidance for FY 2026 remains similar to FY 2025 despite no shutdown, with expectations for increased volumes from the destoning plant [56][64] Question: Gas volumes and impairment calculations - Gas volumes from Mozambique are expected to ramp up, but total recoverable gas volumes were revised down due to changes in the WACC rate [58][66] - The commissioning of the integrated processing facility is on track, but delays in the CTT project have been encountered [58][73] Question: Outlook for chemical prices and debt reduction - The company is focused on deleveraging, using excess cash to reduce gross debt and improve net debt position [92] - The effective tax rate has increased due to non-permissible deductions, impacting overall tax payments [80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total EBITDA reached BRL2.7 billion, showing significant growth compared to last year, partially driven by the recognition of extraordinary tax credits [16] - Recurring EBITDA for the quarter totaled BRL1.648 billion, representing a 15% increase compared to the second quarter last year [17] - Net income was BRL1.151 billion in the quarter, an increase of 134% compared to the same period of the previous year [17] - Operating cash generation was BRL1.848 billion, a growth of 73% compared to the same period last year [18] - Net debt at the end of the second quarter was BRL12.635 billion, equivalent to 1.9x net debt to EBITDA, an increase from 1.7 times in the last quarter [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ipiranga's volume sold in the second quarter was 2% lower compared to the same quarter last year, with a 3% reduction in diesel sales [19] - Ultragaz's recurring adjusted EBITDA was BRL442 million, 11% higher than the same period in 2024, reflecting better sales mix and efficiency [22] - Ultracargo's EBITDA totaled BRL141 million, which is 15% lower than the same period last year, mainly due to lower cubic meters sold [23] - Hydrovias' total volume in the quarter was 10% higher compared to the same quarter last year, with a recurring adjusted EBITDA increase of 39% [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fuel sector continues to experience illegalities, including increased regular imports of naphtha for selling as gasoline with reduced tax burden [7] - The implementation of single-phase taxation of hydrated ethanol for PIS and COFINS began in May, marking progress in the regulatory environment [7] - The volume of LPG sold by Ultragaz was 1% lower than in 2024, with a 2% decrease in the bottle segment [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to long-term value creation and disciplined capital management, focusing on operational cash flow generation [6] - The completion of the buyback program of 25 million Ultrapar shares at an average cost of BRL16.64 reflects the company's capital allocation strategy [8] - The company is preparing for potential regulatory changes in the LPG market, emphasizing the importance of maintaining safety and investment in the sector [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the positive effects of recent regulatory changes, although they acknowledged that the single-phase taxation initially deteriorates margins [33] - The company expects seasonally stronger volumes in the third quarter, with a trend towards normalization of inventories in the industry [20] - Management expressed optimism about the future performance of Hydrovias, expecting continued strong results and significant increases in recurring EBITDA [25] Other Important Information - The company raised BRL1 billion at Epidanga at an average cost equivalent to 106% of the CDI, below the current average cost of debt [8] - The company will pay BRL326 million in interim dividends, equivalent to $0.30 per share in August [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of informal practices on margins - Management acknowledged improvements in the industry but noted that it is too early to assess the full impact on margins [30][34] Question: Competition from Petrobras in the LPG market - Management indicated that Petrobras could support regulatory consolidation but emphasized the need for careful monitoring of market dynamics [38] Question: Working capital and draft discount related to IOF - Management confirmed that the discussion around IOF was a trigger for managing working capital effectively [40] Question: Consolidation of Hydrovias and cost reduction initiatives - Management expects improvements in management and operations to positively impact EBITDA in the second half of the year [54] Question: Long-term perspective for Ultracargo and expansion projects - Management confirmed ongoing investments in expansion projects, with expectations of reaching EBITDA per cubic meter similar to other terminals by 2026 [61] Question: Capital allocation and leverage targets - Management indicated that once leverage reaches a comfortable level, they will consider both investments and increasing dividend payouts [62]

Group 1 - Brazil has implemented a new mandatory blending policy for gasoline and diesel biofuels, increasing the ethanol blend in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blend in diesel from 14% to 15% [1] - The Brazilian government anticipates that the new policy will lower fuel prices and volatility without compromising supply security, with gasoline prices potentially decreasing by up to 0.11 reais per liter [1] - The initiative aims to reduce dependence on imported fuels amid global oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical conflicts, leveraging Brazil's position as a major producer of ethanol and biodiesel [1] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised by the automotive parts industry regarding the higher ethanol blend potentially causing engine compatibility issues for traditional gasoline vehicles [2] - The increase in biodiesel blending has also raised technical concerns among logistics companies and transport operators, particularly regarding biodiesel's stability and potential maintenance costs [2] - To address market concerns, the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) has intensified regulatory oversight on biodiesel production, distribution, and storage to prevent quality issues [2]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government, led by Lee Jae-myung, is facing significant challenges regarding tariffs and trade relations with the United States, particularly after a planned high-level economic meeting was abruptly canceled by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - South Korea is attempting to negotiate tariff exemptions with the U.S. by offering deeper industrial cooperation in sectors like shipbuilding and semiconductors [1][3]. - The South Korean government has previously struggled to convince the Trump administration to ease tariffs, indicating a history of diplomatic challenges in this area [3]. - In response to U.S. pressure, South Korea is considering opening its fuel market and encouraging domestic companies to present a substantial investment package to the U.S. [3][4]. Group 2: Domestic and International Implications - South Korea has decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel plates imported from China, which is seen as a move to protect domestic industries during an investigation [4][6]. - The decision to impose tariffs on Chinese imports is coupled with similar measures against Japanese steel, suggesting a broader strategy rather than a direct attack on China [6]. - The South Korean media has reported that the U.S. is pressuring South Korea to expand the scope of the U.S.-Korea Mutual Defense Treaty to include the entire Indo-Pacific region, particularly concerning Taiwan [6][8]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - China remains South Korea's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade expected to exceed $310 billion in 2024, raising concerns about the economic impact of tariff measures against Chinese goods [8][10]. - The potential involvement of South Korea in Taiwan-related issues could severely damage the political foundation of Sino-Korean relations, reminiscent of past tensions caused by the THAAD missile defense system [8][10]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - The South Korean business community generally favors maintaining good relations with China, while the government faces pressure from the U.S. to take actions that may harm these relations [10][12]. - Analysts suggest that while South Korea may increase military spending under U.S. pressure, direct involvement in Taiwan conflicts is unlikely due to regional security concerns [10][12]. - The Chinese government has firmly stated its opposition to any agreements that compromise its interests, warning South Korea against using Chinese interests as leverage in negotiations with the U.S. [12][14].

Group 1 - The Brazilian Minister of Mines and Energy expressed confidence that an announcement regarding a decrease in fuel prices in Brazil will be made soon [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Israeli Ministry of Energy anticipates no fuel shortages in the near future [1] Industry Summary - The Israeli Energy Ministry's forecast indicates a stable fuel supply, alleviating concerns about potential shortages [1]