所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-09 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 关于降息美联储内部分歧正在加大，美政府停摆导致评估更难 观点分享： 北京时间 10 月 9 日凌晨，美联储官网发布了 9 月 16 日至 17 日的联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储官员们大体同意，近期就业增长放缓的重要性 超过了持续高企的通胀，因此决定降息 25 个基点，这是今年的首次降息。9 月会议的投票结 果为 11 比 1，投出反对票的成员是由美国总统特朗普任命的美联储新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰 （Stephen Miran），他主张降息 50 个基点。纪要显示，多数与会者强调了通胀前景上行 的风险，少数官员对降息持保留态度。部分官员认为上月无需降息，或本可支持维持利率不 变。19 位参会官员中，略多于一半的人预计今年还将至少再降息两次，但有数人预计 2025 年剩余时间内只会降息一次或不再降息。这反映出美联储内部分歧依然较大。号称"美联储 传声筒"的知名财经记者 Nick Timiraos 撰文称，美联储官员在降息幅度问题上存在分歧， 一些官员认为上月无需降息，或本可支 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4] Core View of the Report - The short - term fundamental supply - demand pattern is good. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The sharp decline in the market on the day was mainly affected by the expected resumption of production of previously shut - down mines. The mid - term supply - demand shows an over - supply cycle, and the market may be weak and volatile after the mine resumes production and consumption support weakens [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 10, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 69,040 yuan/ton and closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, with a - 4.87% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 751,480 lots, and the open interest was 340,814 lots (351,340 lots the previous day). The current basis was 3,330 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,101 lots with no change from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,500 - 75,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,600 - 71,800 yuan/ton, both down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 805 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The downstream material factories' price - fixing enthusiasm increased significantly. In September, the market showed simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and the overall supply of lithium carbonate was still tight. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, while that from lithium mica decreased to 15% [1] Strategy - The short - term supply - demand pattern is good. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increases, and that from mica decreases in the short term. The consumption end is in the peak season with good downstream production schedules. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The mid - term over - supply cycle remains unchanged, and the market may be weak and volatile later [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel is expected to move in a narrow - range oscillation [1][3]. - Stainless steel prices may oscillate as there is a game between reality and expectations [1][4]. - Lithium carbonate is likely to experience a weak - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of resumption of production [1][10]. - For industrial silicon, the Inner Mongolia meeting has increased news - related disturbances [1][13]. - Regarding polysilicon, attention should be paid to the fermentation of market sentiment [1][13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,850, down 940 from T - 5; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,915, up 65 from T - 10. There were also changes in trading volume, various premiums, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan for 2025 in Indonesia is higher than that in 2024; some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines suspended production; Indonesian mining companies need to resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets; a Shandong steel mill started maintenance [4][5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 70,720, down 2,180 from T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products in the lithium - salt industrial chain [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased; Codelco and SQM are about to finalize a cooperation agreement for lithium - mining [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,665, up 255 from T - 1; the closing price of PS2511 was 52,885, down 635 from T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventory data [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Jinko Energy's subsidiary plans to sell 80% of its equity [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report of Guotai Junan Futures on September 1, 2025, focusing on green finance and new energy commodities including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1]. Group 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel is expected to trade in a narrow range based on fundamental logic, with investors warned of potential risks from news. Stainless steel prices are also expected to move in a narrow range [2][4]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,700 yuan, up 710 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,815 yuan, down 35 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 RKAB production in Indonesia is higher than 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were suspended due to losses; Indonesian mining companies must resubmit 2026 RKAB; a Shandong steel mill started maintenance; and Indonesia will crack down on illegal mining [4][5][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The basis of lithium carbonate remains stable, and the range - bound oscillation continues [2][10]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 77,000 yuan, down 1,140 yuan from the previous trading day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 79,628 yuan/ton, down 314 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Chilean government is accelerating a major lithium cooperation deal between Codelco and SQM [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [12]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, the strategy is to short at high prices. For polysilicon, investors should pay attention to market information [2][13][14]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the PS2511 contract for polysilicon was 49,555 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US International Trade Court ruled that the Biden administration's "Southeast Asian solar cell and component import tariff suspension order" was illegal, and retroactive tariffs may be imposed on solar products imported from four Southeast Asian countries [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [16].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated August 21, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The conflict between reality and expectations intensifies, amplifying the volatility of the futures market [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is boosted [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted [2][14]. Summary by Categories Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,930 yuan, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 63,676 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day, while the stainless - steel main contract had a trading volume of 149,736 lots, an increase of 15,654 lots from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff disputes. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production phase, and there are environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period and has adjusted the 2025 production target. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [4][5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan from the previous day, and the 2511 contract closed at 80,980 yuan, down 6,560 yuan from the previous day [10]. - The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 55,748 lots, an increase of 27,298 lots from the previous day, and the 2511 contract had a trading volume of 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots from the previous day [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,752 yuan/ton, down 189 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In July, lithium ore imports were 75.07 million tons, a 30.35% increase from the previous month [10][11]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract for polysilicon closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan from the previous day [14]. - The trading volume of the Si2511 contract was 561,795 lots, an increase of 123,482 lots from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract had a trading volume of 704,931 lots, an increase of 124,324 lots from the previous day [14]. Macro and Industry News - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon exports totaled 74,006.174 tons to 50 countries/regions, with an average price of 9,219.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.74 yuan/ton from the previous month [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply - side disturbances are recurring, and it will oscillate with an upward bias [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is strong, leading to amplified fluctuations in the futures market [2][13]. - Polysilicon: There are increasing news - related disturbances this week [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, down 600 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,010 yuan, down 15 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 87,649 lots, a decrease of 14,608 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 143,960 lots, a decrease of 16,602 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various events such as potential nickel export suspension from Canada, new nickel - iron production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in mining quota policies, production suspensions due to losses, and steel mill overhauls in China [4][5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 86,920 yuan, up 1,780 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 39,934 lots, a decrease of 22,135 lots, and the open interest was 89,649 lots, a decrease of 8,414 lots [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and there were changes in the global tablet and smartphone shipments [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,805 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the PS2511 contract closed at 52,740 yuan/ton, up 2,310 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, and inventory data [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Xining held a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project kick - off meeting to strengthen the photovoltaic industry [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and nickel prices fluctuate within a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The influence of macro factors fades, and the price returns to the fundamentals, with steel prices oscillating at a low level [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, and the price moves in a volatile manner [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: It is in a weak pattern [2][13]. - Polysilicon: The short - term sentiment cools down, and attention should be paid to news stimuli [2][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,630, and the stainless - steel main contract is 12,925. There are also detailed data on trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain, and profit margins [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project enters the trial - production stage; environmental violations are found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan in 2025 is higher than that in 2024; some production lines in an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park are suspended [5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract is 68,920, and there are data on trading volume, positions, warehouse receipts, and prices and profits of related products in the industrial chain [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rises; an Australian lithium - ore auction ends; a lithium - battery material project in Jiangxi is approved [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2509 is 8,360, and PS2509 is 48,720. There are also data on trading volume, positions, price differences, spot premiums and discounts, and profits of related products in the industrial chain [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Liaoning releases the assessment results of distributed photovoltaic grid - connection capacity [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is 0 [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The recent strong rise in the lithium carbonate futures market is mainly driven by mine - end disturbance news, including issues with lithium mica mines in Jiangxi and the suspension of salt lake mining by some companies. The uncertainty of lithium resource mining approvals and strong macro - commodity sentiment have led to the rise. If there are more domestic resource shutdowns, the supply - demand pattern may reverse. The short - term futures market may be strongly influenced by capital sentiment and policies [3] Market Analysis - On July 24, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 opened at 70,180 yuan/ton and closed at 76,680 yuan/ton, with a 7.21% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,770,283 lots, and the open interest was 436,727 lots (362,054 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 690 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 11,654 lots, a change of 900 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 69,200 - 71,900 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,400 - 69,400 yuan/ton, also a 100 - yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 790 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar/ton change from the previous day. Due to the high price being unacceptable to downstream enterprises, the procurement willingness is weak, and the overall trading volume is light [1] Inventory and Production - The latest total inventory is 142,620 tons (140,793 tons in the previous period), including 58,039 tons in smelters (58,598 tons in the previous period), 41,271 tons in downstream inventories (40,765 tons in the previous period), and 43,310 tons in other inventories (41,430 tons in the previous period) [2] - The latest weekly total production is 18,630 tons (19,115 tons in the previous period), including 9,324 tons of lithium carbonate produced from pyroxene (8,994 tons in the previous period), 5,100 tons from mica (5,075 tons in the previous period), 3,282 tons from salt lakes (3,265 tons in the previous period), and 1,409 tons from recycled materials (1,479 tons in the previous period) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: None [3] - **Inter - period**: None [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4] - **Spot - futures**: None [4] - **Options**: None [4]

Report Overview - Date: July 24, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro sentiment dominates the margin, while fundamentals determine elasticity [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are significant differences between bulls and bears, and the trend may fluctuate widely [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the upstream resumption of production progress [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: An industry meeting is held, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 123,370 yuan, down 160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,900 yuan, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and other indicators also showed corresponding changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel iron project entered the trial - production stage; some nickel smelters in Indonesia resumed production, and a cold - rolling mill planned to stop for maintenance [4][5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,380 yuan, down 3,500 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators. The price of raw materials such as lithium spodumene concentrate also changed [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased; the EU plans to ban non - electric vehicle purchases for rental companies and large enterprises from 2030 [10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,525 yuan, down 130 yuan; the closing price of the PS2509 contract was 50,080 yuan, up 975 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Guizhou Energy Bureau issued a power demand response trading plan [14] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [15]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]