周三，三大指数走高，美国发布的周度初请失业金人数下降，表明就业情况并未恶化，但美联储褐皮书 显示未来几个月经济活动放缓的风险有所增加，机构普遍预期，美联储12月降息的概率非常大。 【原油】纽约商品交易所1月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨70美分，收于每桶58.65美元，涨幅为 1.21%；1月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨65美分，收于每桶63.13美元，涨幅为1.04%。 【加密货币】比特币涨超3%，重返9万美元关口；以太坊涨超2%，报3019.81美元。 【美元指数】衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.07%，在汇市尾市收于99.595。截至纽约 汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1594美元，高于前一交易日的1.1584美元；1英镑兑换1.3235美元，高于前一交 易日的1.3213美元。1美元兑换156.46日元，高于前一交易日的155.83日元；1美元兑换0.8043瑞士法郎， 低于前一交易日的0.8064瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.4040加元，低于前一交易日的1.4092加元；1美元兑换 9.5038瑞典克朗，低于前一交易日的9.5181瑞典克朗。 【贵金属】现货黄金微涨0.8%，报4164.01美元。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

每经AI快讯，11月21日，恒生指数下跌2.38%。南向资金今日净买入1.05亿港元。 | 南向资金今日成交活跃个股榜单 | | --- | | 代码 | 简称 | 收盘价 (港元) | 涨跌幅 (%) | 净买入金额 (亿港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0700.HK | 腾讯控股 | 610.0 | -1.77 | 17.36 | - | | 1810.HK | 小米集团-W | 38.08 | 1.01 | 12.68 | . | | 9988.HK | 阿里巴巴-W | 147.6 | -4.65 | 11.58 | - | | 1024.HK | 快手-W | 64.0 | -1.46 | 2.36 | - | | 3690.HK | 美团-W | 95.55 | -2.99 | 1.46 | | | MH 8986 | 小鹏汽车-W | 78.5 | -4.09 | 1.34 | - | | 0883.HK | 中国海洋石油 | 21.54 | -1.91 | 0.65 | . | | 9992.HK | 泡泡玛特 | 199.3 | ...

中国科学院、中国工程院11月21日公布2025年院士增选结果，分别选举产生中国科学院院士73人，中国工程院院士71人。 院士是我国科学技术方面和工程科技领域的最高荣誉称号，院士制度是党和国家为树立尊重知识、尊重人才导向，凝聚优秀人才服务国家设立的一 项重要制度。本次增选后，我国院士队伍的结构进一步优化。 新当选的中国科学院院士平均年龄57.2岁，最小年龄44岁，最大年龄66岁，60岁（含）以下的占67.1%，女性科学家有5人当选。新当选的中国工程 院院士中，有6位扎根西部边远地区的专家，有8位女性科学家。 据悉，本次两院院士增选突出国家战略需求导向，突出以科技创新引领新质生产力的发展要求。增选工作中，中国科学院、中国工程院坚持院士增 选纪律严的基调，强化纪律要求和全过程监督，对候选人学术学风、道德品行、遵规守纪等方面进行了严格把关，积极接受社会监督，严防说情打 招呼，切实把好院士队伍"入口关"。 本次增选后，我国现有中国科学院院士共908人，现有中国工程院院士共1002人。 | 序号 | 姓名 | 年龄 | 工作单位 | 研究方向 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | ...

Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, significantly above the market expectation of 52,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [1] - The unemployment rate in September was reported at 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% and unchanged from the previous month [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock futures initially rose, with the Dow Jones futures up by 0.80%, S&P 500 futures up by 1.49%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up by 2.02% [1] - However, by the end of the trading day, all three major indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down by 0.84%, Nasdaq down by 2.15%, and S&P 500 down by 1.55% [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The interest rate swap market indicates a low probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December, with traders expecting the Fed to skip a rate cut [5] - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in December is 60.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 39.6% [6] Group 4: Public Sentiment on Economic Policy - A recent poll shows increasing dissatisfaction among the American public regarding the economic policies of the Trump administration, with 76% of respondents rating the economy as "poor," up from 67% in July [7][8] - Only 15% of respondents believe that the Trump administration's economic policies have had a positive impact, while 46% feel these policies have worsened the economic situation [9] Group 5: Energy Department Restructuring - The U.S. Department of Energy announced a restructuring that prioritizes fossil fuels and nuclear energy, moving away from the previous focus on renewable energy and efficiency [13] - The new structure includes the establishment of several new offices, such as the Hydrocarbon and Geothermal Energy Office and the Fusion Office, while the Clean Energy Demonstration Office was dissolved [13]

Core Insights - On November 18, China Hongqiao made its first appearance on the Hong Kong Stock Connect active trading list in a month, with a trading volume of 2.42 billion HKD and a net buy of 0.83 billion HKD, despite a closing drop of 5.88% [2]. Trading Activity Summary - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 38.66 billion HKD, accounting for 39.31% of the day's total trading amount, with a net buying amount of 7.18 billion HKD [2]. - Alibaba-W led the trading volume with 9.28 billion HKD, followed by Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group-W with trading amounts of 5.85 billion HKD and 4.59 billion HKD, respectively [2]. - The most frequently listed stocks in the past month include Alibaba-W and Huahong Semiconductor, each appearing 21 times, indicating strong interest from Hong Kong Stock Connect funds [2]. Individual Stock Performance - China Hongqiao's trading details on November 18 included a trading volume of 2.42 billion HKD and a net buy of 0.83 billion HKD, with a closing price of 21.80 HKD and a daily decline of 5.88% [2]. - Other notable stocks included: - Tencent Holdings: Trading volume of 5.85 billion HKD, net sell of 0.19 billion HKD, closing price of 623.50 HKD, and a daily drop of 2.04% [2]. - Xiaomi Group-W: Trading volume of 4.59 billion HKD, net buy of 0.85 billion HKD, closing price of 40.78 HKD, and a daily decline of 2.81% [2]. - Huahong Semiconductor: Trading volume of 3.61 billion HKD, net buy of 0.37 billion HKD, closing price of 80.25 HKD, and a daily increase of 3.48% [2].

IPO Review and Registration Progress - Four companies passed the IPO review last week, including two semiconductor firms, Qiangyi Co. and Hengrun Chang, aiming to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Beijing Stock Exchange respectively [2][3] - Qiangyi Co. focuses on the development and production of probe cards, essential for semiconductor testing, with a high customer concentration where the top five clients contribute about 80% of revenue [2][3] - Hengrun Chang specializes in plasma RF power systems, with revenue projected to grow from 158 million yuan in 2022 to 541 million yuan in 2024, although a slight decline in revenue is expected in 2025 due to increased R&D and capacity expansion [3][4] New IPO Applications and Upcoming Listings - Five companies are scheduled for IPO reviews this week, including Zhenstone Co., which plans to raise 3.981 billion yuan, focusing on clean energy materials [5][6] - Zhenstone's revenue is expected to decline from 5.267 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.439 billion yuan in 2024, primarily due to market competition and raw material price fluctuations [6] - Other companies like Yisiwei and Aide Technology are also preparing for IPOs, with Yisiwei's revenue heavily reliant on government subsidies [7][8] New Stock Listings and Subscription Dynamics - Three new stocks are set to be listed this week, including Beikang Detection, Hengkun New Materials, and Nanfang Network Digital, with significant revenue growth reported for Nanfang Network Digital [12][13] - Beikang Detection focuses on non-ferrous metal inspection services, while Hengkun New Materials specializes in key materials for semiconductor manufacturing [12][13] - Two new stocks are scheduled for subscription, including Jingchuang Electric and China Uranium, with China Uranium projected to achieve revenue between 19.5 billion and 20 billion yuan in 2025 [14][15]

Group 1 - The total scale of newly established funds in China has exceeded 1 trillion yuan this year, with 1,377 new funds established as of November 16, totaling 9,959.77 billion yuan [1] - Among the newly established funds, 996 are equity funds, accounting for a total issuance scale of 5,173.38 billion yuan, significantly surpassing the entire year of 2024 [1] - Bond ETFs have seen a strong inflow, with 53 bond ETFs established this year, increasing from 1,799.87 billion yuan at the end of last year to 7,054.23 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Private equity funds have distributed over 15 billion yuan in dividends this year, significantly exceeding the same period last year, with stock strategies being the main contributors [1] - The sales fee reform in the public fund industry has begun, prompting many third-party sales institutions to adjust their strategies and focus on enhancing customer experience and service capabilities [2] - The gold market is experiencing new trends, with high prices leading to increased consumer interest in lightweight gold products and gold bars [2] Group 3 - The public REITs market is facing challenges, with new listings experiencing immediate price drops and a decline in investor enthusiasm due to market corrections [3] - The price of lithium iron phosphate has rebounded by approximately 10% since October, driven by strong demand from automakers and battery manufacturers [4] - The humanoid robot industry is entering a phase of commercial viability, with heterogeneous robots being integrated into various practical applications [4] Group 4 - Apple CEO Tim Cook may resign as early as next year, with hardware engineering senior vice president, John Ternus, being considered as a potential successor [5] - Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun has publicly addressed concerns regarding the safety design of Xiaomi's vehicles, emphasizing that aesthetics do not compromise safety [5] - Major management changes are occurring at GAC Group, with Feng Xingya stepping down as general manager and He Xianqing taking over [7] Group 5 - Meihe Holdings announced that its chairman has been placed under investigation, leading to the appointment of a new acting chairman [6] - Tianfu Communication plans to sell 850,000 shares at a significant discount, representing 1.09% of the company's total shares [7] - Zhangjiajie Tourism Group has signed agreements with investors for a restructuring plan, with 8 companies acquiring a total of 3.25 billion shares [8]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Guidance No. 10 on Market Value Management" has led to a significant increase in the use of various market value management tools by listed companies, including cash dividends, share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and equity incentives, to enhance investment value and return to investors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Value Management Tools - Cash dividends and share buybacks have become frequently used tools in the market value management toolbox, with companies encouraged to establish clear mechanisms for share repurchase and to develop long-term dividend plans [2][3]. - As of October 31, 2023, 1,195 companies in China's stock market have announced 1,525 share buyback plans for 2025, with a total buyback amount of 92.3 billion yuan, of which 36% was from self-owned funds and 26% from cancellation buybacks [2]. - A total of 1,033 listed companies have announced cash dividend plans for the first three quarters, with a total cash dividend amount of 734.9 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in the number of companies engaging in multiple dividends [3]. Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - The past year has seen a vibrant A-share merger and acquisition market, characterized by significant activity in the "hard technology" sector and accelerated integration of state-owned enterprises [4][5]. - Notable cases include the acquisition of 72.33% of shares in ChipLink by ChipLink Integrated and the merger of Haiguang Information with Zhongke Shuguang, showcasing the trend of industry consolidation [4]. - Policy support has been crucial for the active M&A market, with recent reforms aimed at enhancing the efficiency and vitality of mergers and acquisitions [5]. Group 3: Equity Incentives - Equity incentives have gained prominence as a market value management tool, with companies encouraged to establish long-term incentive mechanisms [6][7]. - By mid-2023, nearly 3,500 listed companies had implemented equity incentive or employee stock ownership plans, representing 64% of A-share listed companies [6]. - The recognition of equity incentives as a significant method for market value management has deepened, with more companies expected to adopt these tools in the future [7].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Guidelines for the Supervision of Listed Companies No. 10 - Market Value Management" has led to a significant increase in the use of various market value management tools by listed companies, including cash dividends, share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and equity incentives, to enhance investment value and return to investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Value Management Tools - Cash dividends and share buybacks have become frequently used tools in the market value management toolbox, with companies encouraged to establish clear mechanisms for share repurchase and to develop and disclose medium- to long-term dividend plans [1][2]. - As of October 31, 2023, 1,195 companies in China's stock market have announced 1,525 share buyback plans for 2025, with a total buyback amount of 92.3 billion yuan, of which 36% was funded by self-owned capital and 26% was for cancellation [2]. - The total cash dividend amount across the market reached 734.9 billion yuan, with 89 companies distributing over 1 billion yuan in dividends within the year [2]. Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - The past year has seen a vibrant M&A market, particularly in the "hard technology" sector, with notable cases such as the acquisition of 72.33% of Chip Alliance's shares and the merger of Haiguang Information with Zhongke Shuguang [3]. - State-owned enterprises are also actively engaging in professional integration, exemplified by China Shenhua's plan to consolidate 13 energy companies and Guotai Junan's merger with Haitong Securities [3]. - Policy support has been a key driver for the active M&A market, with various reforms and guidelines aimed at enhancing the efficiency and vitality of mergers and acquisitions [3]. Group 3: Equity Incentives - Equity incentives have been highlighted as a significant market value management tool, with companies encouraged to establish long-term incentive mechanisms [4][5]. - By mid-2023, nearly 3,500 listed companies had implemented equity incentive or employee stock ownership plans, representing 64% of all A-share listed companies [5]. - The recognition of equity incentives as a market value management strategy has deepened, with more companies expected to adopt these tools to enhance long-term value [5].