2025 年 7 月 8 日 股指期货将震荡整理 原油期货将震荡偏强 黄金、白银期货 将偏强震荡 螺纹钢、铁矿石期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2509 阻力位 3927 和 3944 点，支撑位 3900 和 3879 点；IH2509 阻力位 2716 和 2726 点，支撑位 2699 和 2690 点；IC2509 阻力位 5788 和 5810 点，支撑位 5722 和 5690 点；IM2509 阻力位 6130 和 6184 点，支撑位 6073 和 6050 点。 十年期国债期货主力合约 T2509大概率将震荡整理，阻力位 109.18和 109.25元，支撑位 109.00和 108.90元。 三十年期国债期货主力合约 TL2509 大概率将震荡整理，阻力位 121.3 和 121.5 元，支撑位 121.0 和 120.7 元。 黄金期货主力合约 AU2510 大 ...

各位老铁，我是帮主郑重。今儿个周一的美股盘面，算不上多热闹，但细看下来，能说道的地方可不少。三大指数齐刷刷往下走，道指跌了近1%，纳指 也跌了0.92%，标普500跟着跌了不到0.8%，整体透着点谨慎劲儿。 外汇市场那边，美元指数涨了0.53%，收在97.48。这也不难理解，美股跌的时候，美元往往成了避险的香饽饽，所以对欧元、英镑这些主要货币都走强 了，兑日元也升了不少，市场避险情绪一上来，资金就爱往美元这种"硬通货"里扎。 还有个值得琢磨的消息，高盛说美联储可能9月就降息，比之前预测提早了三个月，终端利率预期也下调了。这可不是小消息，利率变动直接关系到整个 市场的资金成本，要是真降息，对科技股、成长股来说算是个潜在利好。高盛还说关税的影响可能没想象中大，主要是一次性影响价格，通缩效应更 强，这判断倒是给市场吃了颗小定心丸。 商品市场也挺有意思，油价居然逆着OPEC+增产的消息涨了。布伦特原油收涨1.87%，西得克萨斯中质原油也涨了1.39%。按理说OPEC+8月要多产54.8万 桶/日，比之前多不少，可现货市场供应偏紧，硬是把油价托起来了，这说明供需的真实感受，有时候比政策消息更顶用。 黄金呢，上演了一出V ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the core contradiction throughout the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries is the "structural gap during the new - old kinetic energy conversion period." In the first half of the year, the industry was affected by external uncertainties, with intensified internal differentiation, and overall prosperity relied on policy support. In the second half of the year, with the "two new" policies further boosting domestic demand and upgrading the industrial structure, the industry is expected to achieve a systematic leap from "quantity" to "quality" expansion [2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - **Upstream Materials**: In H1 2025, raw material prices were under pressure due to weak demand and Sino - US trade conflicts, showing significant differentiation. In H2, the structural differentiation will continue. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff negotiations, and climate risks [8]. - **Midstream Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it presented a differentiated pattern of "traditional under pressure, high - tech doing well." In H2, policies will support both demand and supply - side reforms, and traditional manufacturing is expected to break through cost dilemmas through intelligent and digital transformation [8]. - **Downstream Consumption**: In H1 2025, it showed a "weak recovery" pattern. In H2, the consumption market will continue to be structurally differentiated, and the recovery highly depends on policy implementation efficiency and business model innovation [9][10]. Upstream: Raw Material Price Fluctuations - **H1 2025 Situation**: Raw material prices were under pressure. Metal mining showed a divergence between black and non - ferrous metals; chemical raw materials had multi - directional fluctuations; energy sources like crude oil and coal were more differentiated; most agricultural products were at near - five - year lows [8][15]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: The price differentiation will continue. Traditional raw materials' rebound depends on supply - side reforms and policy support, while emerging demand - driven products are more resilient. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff reviews, and extreme weather [15][16]. Midstream: Short - term Stabilization, Continued New - Old Kinetic Energy Conversion - **Overall Situation**: In H1 2025, the manufacturing industry was affected by external factors, with traditional manufacturing under pressure and high - tech manufacturing supported by policies. After the tariff war, there was short - term stabilization, and both external and internal demands recovered to some extent [43][53]. - **Traditional Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, profits declined due to over - capacity and weak demand. In H2, policies will expand to more traditional manufacturing sectors, promoting transformation and efficiency improvement [59][75]. - **High - tech Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it recovered significantly compared to the beginning of the year, benefiting from strong policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to improve [69][75]. Downstream: Intensified Retail Differentiation, Weak Real Estate Recovery - **Retail Industry**: In H1 2025, online e - commerce grew due to the "trade - in" policy, while traditional physical retail was under pressure. In H2, the differentiation will continue, with emerging formats having growth potential and traditional retail relying on policy and innovation [82][93]. - **Leasing Industry**: In H1 2025, it was in a downturn. In H2, the "price - for - volume" trend will continue, and the de - stocking of commercial land will continue [92][93]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In H1 2025, it achieved "weak stabilization" under policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to recover slowly with further policy optimization and improved supply - demand balance [99][115].

"牛市"或有流动性和基本面双重支持 20250701 摘要 2025 年上半年港股市场活跃度接近 2015 年牛市水平，成交额占市值 比例高，但估值仍低于历史高位，表明市场存在上涨空间。 南向资金是推动港股上涨的重要力量，2025 年上半年净买入额超过 7,300 亿港币，占总成交量约 40%，对市场活跃度和股价均有显著影响。 香港金管局为维持港币汇率稳定，于 5 月份注入 1,294 亿港元，导致银 行间市场流动性充裕，香港银行同业拆息(Hibor)下降，利好股市。 当前周期与 1997 年相似之处在于楼市下行，但股市提前反弹；不同之 处在于当前楼市下行更为温和，按揭贷款拖欠率远低于 1997 年，股市 前景可能更乐观。 港股基本面积极因素包括：股票回报率低于经济增速，公司营业利润增 速明显改善，以及美联储降息周期带来的有利利率环境。 美联储降息周期通常利好港股，历史数据显示，在降息周期中后段，恒 生指数往往能突破前高，投资者可关注降息带来的投资机会。 美国经济的韧性及潜在的财政刺激政策（如大而美法案）可能避免严重 衰退，从而进一步支撑港股上涨，但需警惕潜在回调风险。 Q&A 2025 年上半年港股的整体表 ...

东南亚可选消费必需消费 Southeast Asia Discretionary Staples 东南亚指数双周报第 1 期：普遍承压，越南回暖 Southeast Asia Index Tracking: Generally Under Pressure, Vietnam Rebounds 胡佳璐 Rebecca Hu 宋琦 Qi Song 刘坤钰 Kunyu Liu 汪立亭 Liting Wang rebecca.jl.hu@htisec.com q.song@htisec.com ky.liu@htisec.com liting.wang@htisec.com [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Jun 2025 风险提示：宏观经济下行风险、地缘政治风险。 [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明 ...

展望后市，国内降息周期下的低利率环境、经济弱复苏的背景均利好红利策略，市值管理指挥棒下央国企的分红意愿和能力均较强，港股通央企红利的股息 率优势显著，配置价值较高。 港股通央企红利ETF（代码：513920）简介 行情回顾及主要观点： 港股上周下跌，红利板块跌幅较小：恒生港股通中国央企红利全收益指数下跌0.70%，恒生指数下跌1.43%，恒生科技指数下跌2.03%。恒生一级行业中，资 讯科技业领涨，医疗保健、能源业领跌。 资金面上，被动外资净流入增多，南向仍保持高额净流入。外资方面，截至周三 EPFR 口径下外资净流入境外中资股16.4亿美元 (vs 前一周净流入0.3亿美元 ) ，其中主动型外资流出1.8亿美元，被动型外资大幅净流入18.2亿美元。南向方面，南向资金净流入163亿港元（vs前一周总计流入约155亿）。 保险资金频频举牌港股红利股。平安人寿6月17日再度举牌招商银行H股，年内已有13家上市公司被险资举牌，其中5家为银行。险资等资金属性与红利板块 低波动、高股息的特性具有更高匹配度，在长债收益率跌至历史低位的背景下，增量资金有望更多流向红利板块，红利策略中长期的资金面向好。 美联储点阵图显示20 ...

Domestic News - The State Council of China has announced the "Regulations on Reporting Tax Information by Internet Platform Enterprises," effective immediately [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with nine other departments, has issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025-2027)," aiming for a 5%-10% increase in gold resources and over 5% growth in gold and silver production by 2027 [1] - A 4.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in Qingcheng District, Qingyuan City, Guangdong Province, with a depth of 10 kilometers; the Guangdong Earthquake Administration has initiated a level IV emergency response, with no reports of casualties or property damage [1] - Sources close to BYD indicate that the company is providing a rebate of 666 yuan per vehicle to dealers, similar to a rebate offered last year [1] - Cambrian has adjusted the maximum repurchase price of its shares to no more than 818.87 yuan per share [1] International News - Trump has called for lower oil prices while encouraging the U.S. Department of Energy to increase drilling efforts [2] - Iran has reported that Israel has again attacked the Fordow nuclear facility, targeting access routes rather than the facility itself [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman has suggested support for a rate cut in July if inflation pressures are controlled [4] - Reports indicate that U.S. military bases in Syria have been attacked [4] - The Wall Street Journal has reported that New York State plans to construct a large nuclear energy facility [4] - Sources indicate that Iran may retaliate against U.S. forces within one to two days [4] - Iran is reportedly seeking a "direct" cost from the U.S., estimating that the conflict could last for two years [4] - An Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson has stated that Israel will attack Iranian military infrastructure in the coming days [4] - The U.S. Embassy in Qatar has advised American citizens to shelter in place until further notice [4]

期货研究 2025-06-23 所长 早读 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-23 期 川普重创伊朗并押注伊朗屈服 观点分享： 在美国完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击之后，伊朗核设施的损 坏程度以及伊朗会以何种程度进行报复，决定了以伊冲突走向终端还是将美国拖入广泛的战 争冲突漩涡。美国《经济学人》认为，美国介入之前，应该已经充分评估了战争外溢的风险。 一旦伊朗强烈报复，例如大规模攻击中东美军基地，特别是封锁霍尔木兹海峡，一定会招来 美国更加严厉的打击，伊朗政权甚至哈梅内伊本人的生命都会招致危险。而从以色列一方来 说，如果伊朗的行动不升级，以方应该也会很快停止攻势，一方面以方攻击的目标已基本达 成，另一方面，以方也难以承受巨大的武器消耗和战争成本。落到市场，美国袭击伊朗之后， 6 月 22 日中东股市全线高开，其中以色列 TA-125 指数上涨 1%，创下历史新高，TA-35 基 准指数上涨 1.2%。这也在一定程度上反映了市场的预期。 | | | | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | PVC | ★★★★ | PV ...

操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 陆家嘴论坛开幕提振政策预期 海外地缘政治扰动尚未平息，但 A 股已反弹企稳，展现出韧 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 周二 A 股窄幅震荡，沪深两市成交额维持在 1.24（前值 1.24） | | | | | | 万亿元左右。从行业来看，金融、煤炭等红利板块收涨，医药、传 | | | | | | 媒行业跌幅居前。股指期货随现货窄幅整理，IH、IM 收涨，IF、IC | | | | | | 收跌，各期指基差进一步走强，IC、IM 当月合约基差基本收敛。 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | | 震荡偏强 | | | | | 性，但当前基本面暂无新增利好，市场仍处于存量博弈状态，主题 | | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 轮动仍将持续。政策方面，2025 年陆家嘴论坛将于今日开幕，在 | | 投资咨询： | F03121473 | | | ...

热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%。个股方面，富途控股涨超6%，哔哩哔哩涨近5%，爱奇艺涨超4%，小鹏汽车、理想汽车涨超3%，阿里 巴巴涨近3%，京东、百度等涨超2%。 脑机接口概念股脑再生开盘暴涨，多次熔断。 当地时间6月16日，美股三大股指全线高开，截至发稿，道指、标普500指数、纳指均涨超1%。 | 道琼斯指数 | 42646.75 | +1.06% | | --- | --- | --- | | .DJI | | | | 标普500指数 | 6042.23 | +1.09% | | .SPX | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 19684.84 | +1.43% | | .IXIC | | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 7402.42 | +2.33% | | .HXC | | | 大型科技股集体上涨，截至发稿，脸书母公司Meta涨近3%，英伟达涨近2%，特斯拉、微软涨超1%，亚马逊、苹果、谷歌A小幅上涨。 银行股多数上涨，高盛、花旗集团涨超2%，德意志银行、摩根大通、富国银行、美国银行等涨超1%。 美股量子计算概念股上扬，Arqit Quantum涨超24%，Quantum Comp ...