| Million | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月26日 | | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | ななな | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 爱两烯 | ★☆☆ | 塑料 | ★★★ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | 女女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | なな女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | なな女 | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-11-26 俄乌和谈进展主导油价，聚烯烃期价创 近年新低 国际原油期货在周二夜盘大幅下滑，彭博报道称乌克兰已同意修订后 的和平协议条款，尽管仍有若干细节问题待敲定。Brent一度下跌2.4%， 随后收复部分失地。美乌官员已在日内瓦展开谈判，美俄代表赴阿布扎比 举行会谈。与此同时，俄罗斯原油海运量在截至11月23日的四周内连续第 五周下滑，10月中旬被制裁以来俄罗斯原油日发货量下滑了53万桶。原油 强现实弱预期的局面延续，关键变量就在于俄乌和谈进展。投资者暂时以 震荡思路对待。 板块逻辑： 原油趋弱，油化工成本下移，其中PP和PE双双创出多年低点。聚烯烃 2025年产能增速均超10%，且检修力度不足，聚烯烃产量持续位于五年同 期最高，刚刚过去的10月两个品种月度产量仍创出了历史纪录新高。PP和 PE超过50%的生产都来自炼厂端，炼油和芳烃的利润尚可，炼厂停车检修 聚烯烃的概率就低。当前PE虽然价格连连下跌，但进口窗口多处于开启及 待开启状态，凸显了PE全球格局的弱势。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥青：原料供应扰动叠 ...

能源化工日报 2025-11-26 2025/11/26 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 3.00 元/桶，涨幅 0.67%，报 448.60 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 9.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.36%，报 2491.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 40.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.31%，报 3015.00 元/吨。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存累库 1.04 百万桶至 207.48 百万桶，环比累库 0.50%； 汽油商业库存去库 1.52 百万桶至 85.45 百万桶，环比去库 1.75%；柴油商业库存去库 4.06 百 万桶至 91.54 百万桶，环比去库 4.25%；总成品油商业库存去库 5.58 百万桶至 176.99 百万 桶，环比去库 3.06%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维 ...

【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属上涨。随着多位美联储官员表态主张12月降息，利率市场隐含降息概率升至80%。 俄乌 相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈。市场不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方 向性突破。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铜】 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜铜价震荡，伦铜尾盘随贵金属走高，另一联储官员表达侧重就业的降息态度，两市铜价暂时在 MA40日均线存在韧性支撑。国内铜精矿加工费长单谈判备受关注。交割换月后,沪粤延续升水,分 别在85、125元，倾向国内现货端有一定看涨情绪，货源较集中。SMM社库减少1.39万吨在18.06万 吨。前期少量高位空单被动止盈位置从8.7万下调到8.65万。 【铝】 (原油) 隔夜国际油价反弹,布伦特01合约涨1.41%。俄乌地缘风险再次陷入制裁现实与和谈预期的纠葛, 一方面上周五美国对俄两油制裁正式生效,印度炼厂进一步规避俄油采购的行为已经发生,另一方 面本周四最后期限前美鸟就和平计划的谈判仍有不确定性。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面 临更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险的犹 动。 ...

能源化工日报 2025-11-25 原油 2025/11/25 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 5.10 元/桶，跌幅 1.13%，报 447.90 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 17.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.67%，报 2512.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 76.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.44%，报 3041.00 元/吨。 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.04 百万桶至 8.14 百万桶，环比去库 0.51%；柴 油库存环比去库 0.78 百万桶至 16.26 百万桶，环比去库 4.60%；燃料油库存环比累库 0.07 百 万桶至 7.04 百万桶，环比累库 1.00%；石脑油环比累库 0.47 百万桶至 5.20 百万桶，环比累 库 9.89%；航空煤油环比去库 0.09 百万桶至 8.61 百万桶，环比去库 1.09%；总体成品油环比 去库 0.38 百万桶至 45.26 百万桶，环比去库 0.84%。 刘 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Neutral (not explicitly stated in a clear rating system but based on the context of market analysis) [6] - Methanol: Consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread, but with caution [6] - Pure Benzene: Bearish bias, consider option configuration [3] - Styrene: Price supported but limited upside [3] - Polypropylene: Slight bearish due to supply increase and weak demand [2] - Plastic: Bearish due to increased supply and weak demand [2] - PVC: Follow cost - end changes, supply high and demand weak [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation, follow profit changes [7] - PX: Strong before new capacity, short - term supply - demand weakening [5] - PTA: Cost - driven, reduced inventory build - up expectation [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term rebound expected but limited space [5] - Short Fiber: Price follows raw materials, no new investment pressure [5] - Bottle Chips: Cost - driven, long - term over - capacity pressure [5] - Soda Ash: Bullish short - term, oversupply long - term [8] - Glass: Limited downside, consider long - glass short - soda strategy [8] Core Views - The overall chemical market is complex, with different products showing various trends based on supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment factors. Some products have short - term bullish or bearish trends, while others face long - term challenges such as over - capacity [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures contracts are fluctuating around the 5 - day moving average. Plastic and polypropylene futures are weak due to increased supply and weak demand. Polyethylene supply pressure increases with reduced maintenance and more shipments, and demand from downstream industries is weak. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures are weak, and the rebound is bearish. Consider option configuration. Styrene price is supported by tight supply - demand balance but has limited upside due to uncertain cost and demand support [3] Polyester - PX is strong before new capacity but short - term supply - demand is weakening. PTA is cost - driven with reduced inventory build - up expectation. Ethylene glycol has a short - term rebound expectation but limited space. Short fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle chips are cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol can consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread due to overseas production cuts and low valuation, but be cautious of weak reality. Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC has good export to India but weak domestic demand, and it may follow cost - end changes. Caustic soda is in a weak operation due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is de - stocking and bullish short - term but oversupplied long - term. Glass has limited downside and can consider the long - glass short - soda strategy [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins are fluctuating widely, with supply - demand contradictions and price trends affected by factors like inventory, cost, and oil prices [2] - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain sustainability, and styrene's price is supported by short - term supply - demand improvement [3] - In the polyester industry, prices of PX, PTA, etc., are affected by multiple factors, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] - Methanol and urea markets have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [6] - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak operation state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] - Soda ash shows a long - term oversupply pattern, and glass has limited downward space [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene enterprise inventory is low, but downstream polypropylene cost pressure and low international oil prices may affect the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures close down, with supply - demand contradictions in both markets [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain continuity, and styrene has short - term supply - demand support [3] Polyester - PTA price drops with the decline of PX and oil prices, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a weak operation, and urea may have an oscillating callback [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and glass has limited downward space [8]

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月21日 张晓秘 Z0003135 | 品种 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | ୧୫32 | 6833 | 2.00 | 0.03% | | | L2605 收盘价 | 6883 | 6883 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6400 | 6434 | -34.00 | -0.53% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6513 | 6532 | -19.00 | -0.29% | | | L15价差 | -48 | -50 | 2.00 | 4.00% | | | PP15价差 | -113 | -98 | -15.00 | -15.31% | 元/吨 | | LP01价差 | 435 | 399 | 36.00 | -9.02% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6380 | 6400 | -20.00 | -0.31% | | | 华北LLD ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the futures market continues to decline weakly. High port inventory pressure persists, with limited destocking before the 01 contract. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [3]. - For urea, prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, showing relative resilience. Supply - side corporate profits are low, and production has slightly declined but is still high year - on - year. Demand has improved due to agricultural reserves and exports. With export policies and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. - For rubber, the start - up load of tire enterprises has decreased, and semi - steel tire export orders have slowed. However, typhoons may increase supply, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts may benefit the January contract. Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. - For PVC, corporate profits are at a low level, supply is high with new installations coming online, and demand is weak both domestically and in exports. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are stable, while styrene prices are rising. Supply is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to pause production growth may support oil prices. PE valuation has limited downside, but high warehouse receipts suppress the market. With inventory reduction and seasonal demand, prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. - For polypropylene, cost - side supply may increase, and supply pressure remains high. Although demand has rebounded seasonally, overall inventory pressure is high. Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, leading to expected inventory accumulation in November. However, there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand structure, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. - For PTA, supply - side maintenance has increased, but new installations will lead to inventory accumulation in November. Demand may remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas installations are operating at high loads, imports are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.70 yuan/barrel, a 1.66% decline, at 455.50 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.43 million barrels to 424.16 million barrels, a 0.80% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 410.93 million barrels, a 0.13% increase [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang price increased by 3, Lunan by 5, and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan to 2016 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline. Be vigilant about price drops [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, while Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan to 1665 yuan, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 70 [5]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, with limited downside. It's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: As of November 20, 2025, the start - up load of full - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire export orders slowed. Typhoons may increase supply, and 110,000 tons of warehouse receipts will be cancelled on November 15 [10]. - **Strategy**: Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 36 yuan to 4456 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 311. The overall start - up rate was 78.5%, down 2.2%. Factory inventory was 322,000 tons, down 12,000 tons, and social inventory was 1.028 million tons, down 13,000 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also stable, with a narrowing basis. The spot price of styrene increased, and the futures price also rose, with a strengthening basis. The upstream start - up rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 265,000 tons [14][15]. - **Strategy**: Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6835 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6855 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 20 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 83.77%, up 0.89%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 259,000 tons, and trader inventory increased by 50,000 tons [17]. - **Strategy**: Prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 120 yuan/ton, strengthening by 34 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 77.71%, down 0.68%. Overall inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6830 yuan. PX CFR increased by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was - 22 yuan. The Chinese load was 86.8%, down 3%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some installations were shut down or under maintenance [22]. - **Strategy**: There may be inventory accumulation in November, but there is support, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 16 yuan to 4696 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan. The load was 72.1%, down 3.6%. Some installations were under maintenance, and downstream load increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Supply - side inventory may accumulate in November, and PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 81 yuan to 3822 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 34 yuan to 3885 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan. The load was 70.7%, down 0.9%. Port inventory increased by 71,000 tons [27]. - **Strategy**: Inventory is accumulating, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28].

聚烯烃产业期现日报 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 11月19日 | 11月18日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 6833 | 6785 | 48.00 | 0.71% | | | L2605 收盘价 | 6883 | 6852 | 31.00 | 0.45% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6434 | 6392 | 42.00 | 0.66% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6532 | 6497 | 35.00 | 0.54% | | | L15价差 | -50 | -67 | 17.00 | 25.37% | 元/吨 | | PP15价差 | -98 | -105 | 7.00 | 6.67% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6400 | 6360 | 40.00 | 0.63% | | | 华北LLDPE现货价格 | 6800 | 6770 | 30.00 | 0.44% | | | 华北 LL基差 | -30 | -10 | -20.00 | -200.00% | ...