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美元储备创30年新低!俄伊委去美元化,美元70年霸权还能撑多久
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-25 15:22
美国从战后布雷顿森林体系到石油美元绑定,花了几十年才搭起这个"货币护城河",再加上全球产业链都拧在一起了,想"脱钩"谈何容易? 就算两个国家说好不用美元结算,用自己的货币交易,可汇率忽高忽低、结算效率跟不上,照样影响生意。 去美元化根本不是换种货币那么简单,而是要把整个贸易规则、支付体系都推倒重来,这里面牵扯的利益太多,说是一场持久战一点不夸张。 大家好,今天犀哥这篇财经评论,主要来聊聊去美元化。现在俄罗斯、伊朗、委内瑞拉这些国家,都在使劲想摆脱美元,比如做生意用本币结算、调整外汇 储备这些操作,但美元的地位真的可以撼动吗? 全球货币的"路径依赖" 全球对美元的依赖已经深到骨子里了,这么多年下来,美元在全球外汇储备里占比一直没低于60%,国际贸易中一半以上的结算都用它,这可不是一天两天 形成的。 美元薅羊毛的"独门绝技" 美国凭着自己的经济实力、军事实力,还有制定国际规则的权力,让全世界都离不开美元。 美元能这么横,核心就是握着个叫"铸币税"的宝贝,说通俗点就是"空手套白狼"的本事。 一个国家的央行印钱,几乎没什么成本,可只要大家都认这钱,就能拿着它买土地、矿产、公司股权这些真金白银的东西,这种无本万利的买卖 ...
人民币持续超越欧元成全球第二!去美元化还需多久?现在有了答案
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-25 10:07
你可能没意识到,人民币现在已经稳稳坐上全球第二大贸易融资货币的宝座,在跨境结算、外汇储备领 域的存在感越来越强了。 货币的终极竞争力不是霸权 全球选择货币的底层逻辑从来没有变过:谁能保证交易安全、价值稳定、使用便捷,谁就会被认可。 人民币能超越欧元,本质是它满足了全球对"靠谱货币"的迫切需求。 过去几十年,美元靠霸权建立起垄断地位,但这种"靠武力背书、靠印钱转嫁风险"的模式,早已让全球 不堪重负。 企业做跨境生意,最怕的就是美元加息、放水带来的汇率波动,一笔订单赚的钱,可能因为汇率变动瞬 间蒸发。 人民币的崛起,恰好解决了这个痛点,它不依附于军事胁迫,不搞排他性捆绑,而是靠中国持续稳定的 经济增长、庞大的贸易体量,以及"不随意滥发货币"的承诺,赢得了市场信任。 很多人误以为货币地位是靠"排名"堆出来的,其实不然。 曾经美元一家独大的日子,真的要结束了吗?从能源大国到中小企业,为啥都开始扎堆用人民币?去美 元化到底要走多久,现在终于有了清晰的答案。 企业选择人民币,是因为直接结算能省去1%-3%的汇兑成本,还能避免被第三方清算机构"卡脖子";国 家选择人民币,是因为它能让外汇储备多元化,不再把财富安全绑在单一货 ...
美元霸权雪崩!中东集体反水,打响反美第一枪,美元已经不是唯一
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-25 06:21
近年来,去美元化逐渐成为国际讨论的热点话题。许多国家在面临美国频繁的金融制裁和美元霸权时,开始寻求摆脱美元的控制。例如,俄罗斯被排除出 SWIFT系统,金砖国家提议推出共同货币,全球超过三分之一的国家受到了美国的金融制裁。美元并不是一普通货币,它在全球贸易中占据着非常重要的地 位——54%的全球贸易是以美元计价的,90%的外汇交易与美元有关,全球超过一半的央行外汇储备也是美元。 美国频繁将美元用作制裁工具,尤其是在新兴经济体合作寻求替代方案的背景下,美元的全球霸权是否会走向崩塌呢?为了回答这个问题,我们首先需要理 解美元霸权的根基,以及替代方案所面临的真实困境。 美元霸权的基础非常牢固,首先体现在它作为全球结算货币的无可替代地位。在内罗毕的街头市场,商家毫不犹豫地接受美元,在曼谷的银行兑换外汇时, 美元被视为硬通货。甚至在加拉加斯的加油站,美元也可以直接支付。这种全球通用的现象,背后是强有力的数据支撑。 全球88%的货币交易中,至少有一方是美元。即便美国并未参与其中,54%的贸易仍然以美元计价。这个默认选择产生了强大的网络效应,许多国家选择使 用美元,不仅因为它稳定,更因为其他国家也都在使用,没人愿意跳出这个 ...
跨境支付破局成功,美元被动放水,人民币升值藏关键底气
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-23 23:41
哈喽大家好,老张今天带大家聊聊咱们的人民币的影响力。年末岁尾,外汇市场直接上演 "神仙打架"—— 人民币对美元今年已累计大涨,可美 联储官员们接连放鹰,市场瞬间吵翻了天。 人民币的底气 最近人民币对美元一路涨,好多人以为是短期跟风,其实不然——这背后是人民币憋了好几年的"硬实力爆发",尤其是跨境支付这块,直接 摆脱了被别人"卡脖子"的风险! 以前大家总担心,美国掌控着SWIFT和CHIPS,万一搞制裁,人民币跨境结算就会断档。 但现在完全不用慌了:咱们的人民币跨境支付系统(CIPS)已经有187家直接参与者和1559家间接参与者,境外参与者占比高达63.7%,业务 覆盖122个国家和地区,还能通过5000多家法人银行辐射全球190个国家和地区。 更牛的是"多边央行数字货币桥"项目,靠区块链技术实现跨境支付实时清算,直接绕开了SWIFT报文。2022年试点就完成了164笔交易,结算 超1.5亿元,数字人民币占比46.6%;2024年沙特央行直接加入,还有30多个国家当观察员,同年10月国际清算银行宣布项目由参与央行接手, 相当于给人民币跨境支付上了"双保险"。 再加上中俄贸易99.1%都用本币结算,2024年3 ...
人民币太猛了!打破美元霸权,全球巨头排队抢用,中国这次玩真的
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 15:36
曾经被视为"区域货币"的人民币,如今却一路冲进了国际舞台中央,搅动了整个金融江湖。2025年上半 年,人民币在全球外汇储备中的占比升到了2%,看着不高,但背后的意义却不简单。 从贸易到资本市场再到支付体系,每一步都踩得稳准狠。人民币不是要硬扛美元,而是要在规则里找到 突破口,给全球多一种选择。这场货币之争,并不单纯是谁打败谁,而是看谁能赢得更多信任。 人民币到底怎么"这么猛"?这背后到底发生了什么,值得好好掰扯清楚。 大宗商品成了人民币的试金石 货币问题说到底,先得从交易说起。而全球最硬的交易场,就是大宗商品市场。 十几年来,这块地盘几乎都被美元锁死,铁矿石、石油、大豆,统统得用美元结算。中国虽然是最大买 家,却一直得忍受汇率波动带来的成本波动。 2025年底,中国矿产资源集团联合国内多家钢企,跟澳大利亚的必和必拓直接摊牌,把铁矿石采购的 30%改为人民币结算。 这不是商量,是摆明了态度:要么换币,要么换人。澳方一开始犹豫,但一看中国手握西芒杜矿山的产 能筹码,也只能点头妥协。 这一次人民币结算,不只是交易方式的改变,更是打破铁矿石20年美元定价机制的一记闷棍。国际市场 一下子就炸了,其他资源出口国也开始重新 ...
中国人称呼美国的钱叫美元,外国人称中国的钱叫做什么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-15 11:10
Core Points - The evolution of currency in China has a long history, transitioning from barter trade to the use of standardized coins for more efficient transactions [1][9] - Different countries have unique currency designs and names that reflect their cultural and historical backgrounds [3] - The naming conventions for the Chinese currency, Renminbi (RMB), differ from those of other countries, with RMB being a common abbreviation domestically and CNY being the international standard [5][7] Group 1: Currency Evolution - The initial form of currency in ancient China was based on barter, using various items such as rice and metals, which later evolved into standardized coins [9] - Each dynasty in Chinese history had its own currency characteristics, reflecting the cultural and political ideologies of the time [10] Group 2: Renminbi Naming and Recognition - Renminbi is the most common name for China's currency, while RMB is a widely recognized abbreviation within China, though it may not be easily understood by foreigners [5] - CNY is the internationally accepted designation for Renminbi, particularly in global transactions, despite being less familiar to many Chinese [7] Group 3: Historical Significance and Value - The design of Renminbi, such as the depiction of historical figures like Chairman Mao, serves to commemorate significant contributions to China's history [10] - The actual value of Renminbi may differ from its face value, with older versions potentially becoming valuable collectibles over time [12]
全球风险资产
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 07:59
Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has diminished, leading to pressure on global risk assets through two main channels [1] Group 1: Impact on Currency and Commodities - A decline in interest rate cut expectations supports the US dollar index in the short term, which, as a core global pricing currency, makes dollar-denominated commodities and emerging market assets less attractive, potentially causing capital to flow back to dollar assets [1] - The continued restrictive monetary policy will elevate real interest rates, negatively impacting the valuation logic of risk assets, particularly high-valuation growth assets, as rising discount rates compress their valuation space [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Recent market performance indicates a pullback in the US Nasdaq index, emerging market equities, and cyclical commodities like oil, reflecting the pressure on risk assets [1]
美股又创新高!全因中美贸易要签协议?分析师:贸易局势没根本好转
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-27 06:41
Group 1 - US stock index futures rose in early Asian trading due to positive news regarding a comprehensive trade agreement between the US and China [1][3] - S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively, while major Asia-Pacific markets also saw gains [3] - On October 24, US stock markets continued their upward trend, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1%, both reaching new closing highs [3] Group 2 - Currency markets showed mixed results, with Australian and New Zealand dollars slightly rising, while the US dollar's performance varied against other major currencies [3] - Analysts remain cautious despite the optimistic market sentiment, with some suggesting that the current situation reflects a cooling rather than a fundamental improvement [3][4] - This week is critical for the market as central bank policies and US corporate earnings season converge, potentially leading to market volatility [4]
刷屏大涨!这一板块爆发
Market Overview - On October 24, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with total trading volume approaching 2 trillion yuan, an increase of over 330 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at its intraday high of 3950.31 points, with over 1000 of the 1300+ ETFs in the market rising, and more than 130 products gaining over 4% [1] ETF Performance - Technology-themed ETFs performed exceptionally well, with all top ten ETFs by daily gain being technology-focused, each rising over 5% [2] - Some technology-themed ETFs have achieved over 100% returns year-to-date [2] - The Communication Equipment ETF (159583) led the market with a 6.49% increase and a trading volume of 190 million yuan, doubling from the previous day [2][3] - The top-performing stocks within the Communication Equipment ETF included Aerospace Science and Technology, which hit the daily limit, and several others that rose over 10% [2] Sector Analysis - The communication and electronics sectors were the top performers among over 30 industry sectors, with a combined trading volume exceeding 540 billion yuan [2] - Four ETFs linked to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Chip Index also made it to the top ten gainers, with significant increases in stocks related to storage chips [3][4] Fund Flows - On October 23, the ETF market saw a net inflow of approximately 6 billion yuan, with defensive ETFs continuing to attract funds, while some aggressive ETFs also gained interest [7][8] - Defensive ETFs focused on currencies, bonds, banks, and gold saw significant net inflows, with the Hua Bao Tian Yi ETF (511990) leading with a net inflow of 717 million yuan [7][8] - Conversely, some large-cap broad-based products experienced net outflows, with the Coal ETF (515220) seeing a net outflow of 601 million yuan on the same day [9][10] Earnings Outlook - Analysts suggest that the technology growth sector remains a favored investment theme, particularly with the acceleration of AI industry trends [11] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to show strong performance in the electronics and AI sectors, with many companies likely to exceed expectations [11][12] - The overall return on equity (ROE) for A-share listed companies (excluding financials and oil) is expected to rise, indicating improving profitability and market fundamentals [12]
加纳塞地升值
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-10-18 15:55
Core Insights - The Ghanaian currency, the Cedi, has continued its upward trend in the interbank market, particularly against major currencies like the US Dollar [1] - As of October 16, 2023, the exchange rate of the Ghanaian Cedi to the US Dollar is approximately 10.62 Cedis, a significant appreciation from earlier in the month when it surpassed 12 Cedis [1] Currency Performance - The Cedi has shown strong performance against the US Dollar, indicating a recovery in the currency's value [1] - The appreciation of the Cedi reflects a positive shift in the currency's market dynamics, which could influence investor sentiment and economic stability in Ghana [1]