Core Theme - The article explores the historical significance and evolution of currency in China, highlighting the cultural and economic implications of various forms of money throughout different dynasties [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Historical Context - The China Currency Museum, established in 1992, serves as a showcase for the rich history and cultural significance of currency in China, located in a former financial center [1] - The use of shells as a medium of exchange dates back to the Shang and Zhou dynasties, symbolizing wealth and preciousness, leading to the term "宝贝" [1] - The evolution of currency forms, such as the transition from shell money to metal coins, reflects the development of Chinese civilization and economic practices [2][3] Group 2: Currency Forms and Innovations - The "布币" (cloth money) is closely related to agricultural tools, illustrating the connection between currency and the agrarian society of ancient China [2] - The "方孔圆钱" (square hole round coins) was chosen for its aesthetic appeal and practical advantages in manufacturing and usage [3] - The "金错刀" (gold-inlaid knife coin) exemplifies innovative currency design aimed at enhancing value and acceptance [3] Group 3: Economic Implications - The historical context of currency stability is emphasized through the example of the 1948 currency reform in Nanjing, which led to severe inflation and loss of purchasing power [2] - The significance of silver as a currency material during the Ming and Qing dynasties is highlighted, establishing a silver standard that facilitated international trade [4] - The issuance of small denomination currency during the Anti-Japanese War reflects the adaptability of currency systems in response to economic challenges [5] Group 4: Cultural Significance - The political and economic dimensions of currency are intertwined, as seen in historical artworks like "清明上河图" (Along the River During the Qingming Festival), which depict the vibrancy of the economy [4] - The development of the world's earliest paper currency, "交子" (jiaozi), marks a significant leap in currency forms, showcasing China's innovative contributions to global monetary systems [4][5] - The transition to digital currency represents the latest evolution in China's monetary landscape, expanding the reach of the Renminbi globally [5]

Group 1 - The latest U.S. non-farm employment data shows a slowdown in job growth with 50,000 new jobs added in December, below the market expectation of 60,000, indicating a continued deceleration in hiring [1] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.4%, which is better than market expectations, alleviating some concerns about a rapid weakening of the labor market [1] - Average hourly wage growth met expectations, not causing new disturbances to inflation outlook, characterizing the employment report as "moderate deceleration rather than significant imbalance" [1] Group 2 - Despite some economic indicators showing resilience, the employment data did not alter the market's core pricing for the policy direction for the year, with the rate market still anticipating about 50 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2] - Gold continues to attract funds as a hedge against policy uncertainty, with prices breaking through the $4,500 mark and reaching a high of $4,517, approaching historical highs [2] - The U.S. dollar index briefly weakened after the data release but stabilized around 99.16, with the limited fluctuation in U.S. Treasury yields providing a relatively favorable macro environment for gold [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical factors are also providing marginal support for gold, with recent comments from Trump regarding Greenland raising concerns about long-term uncertainties, indirectly strengthening the demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Overall, the non-farm data did not shake the market's core expectations for a loose monetary path this year, with gold continuing to be supported by policy expectations and geopolitical risks [3] - The market will focus on upcoming U.S. inflation, retail sales, and Federal Reserve officials' statements, as the continuity of these data performances will be crucial for determining whether gold can further break into higher price ranges [3]

2026 年 01 月 05 日 宏 观 研 究 开年政策如何做？ ——从部委工作会议看政策脉络 一：财政货币协同，重在结构和效率 财政扩张从抬规模到提效率。2026 年财政扩张的重心逐步从总量 加码向结构增效转型，债务工具将加强协同以扩大乘数效应。在财政 工作的重点任务方面，财政从重投资转向投资、消费并重的趋势延续， 财政资金投向的主体预计进一步向居民倾斜、领域上侧重民生保障。 宏 观 专 题 货币更注重与财政协同。政府预计仍是 2026 年加杠杆的主体，而 央行宽松的节奏或主要配合财政发力，在政府加杠杆放缓的时段维持 利率的平稳。货币政策预计有三个特点，一是传统产能扩张类信贷将 继续压降；二是央行对于银行负债端利率比价约束持续关注；三是货 币政策更要兼顾债务风险、汇率风险、银行息差等中长期变量。 二、扩内需：广义财政稳投资，补贴优化扩消费 投资要点： 广义财政扩张稳投资。中央财政和准财政工具直接托底但效果有 限，促进投资止跌回稳更重要的是充分发挥新增专项债作用，以"新 基建"、"绿色基建"稳投资既能在短期内促进投资止跌回稳，又能在 中长期促进产业转型。 补贴政策优化扩消费。商品消费重视补贴效用，服务消费支 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In November 2025, the bond market issued a total of 70,179.3 billion yuan across various types of bonds, including government bonds (10,444.2 billion yuan), local government bonds (9,126.9 billion yuan), financial bonds (11,955.0 billion yuan), corporate credit bonds (13,948.8 billion yuan), credit asset-backed securities (327.2 billion yuan), and interbank certificates of deposit (24,009.2 billion yuan) [1] - As of the end of November 2025, the bond market's custody balance reached 196.3 trillion yuan, with the interbank market holding 173.0 trillion yuan and the exchange market holding 23.2 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Trading Activity - In November 2025, the interbank bond market recorded a transaction volume of 30.5 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [2] - The exchange bond market had a transaction volume of 3.8 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 188.7 billion yuan [2] - The commercial bank counter bond transactions totaled 860.4 billion yuan across 8.1 million transactions [2] Group 3: Foreign Participation - As of the end of November 2025, foreign institutions held a custody balance of 3.6 trillion yuan in the Chinese bond market, accounting for 1.9% of the total custody balance [2] - Among foreign holdings, 2.0 trillion yuan (56.2%) were in government bonds, 0.7 trillion yuan (19.1%) in interbank certificates of deposit, and 0.8 trillion yuan (21.1%) in policy bank bonds [2] Group 4: Money Market Conditions - In November 2025, the interbank lending market recorded a transaction volume of 7.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3% but a month-on-month increase of 9.6% [2] - The bond repurchase transactions totaled 149.8 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% but a month-on-month increase of 13.9% [2] Group 5: Interest Rates and Commercial Paper - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.42%, up by 2.5 basis points month-on-month, while the weighted average interest rate for pledged repos was 1.44%, up by 3.2 basis points [3] - In November 2025, the commercial bill acceptance amount was 4.0 trillion yuan, and the discount amount was 3.1 trillion yuan [3] - As of the end of November 2025, the acceptance balance of commercial bills was 20.9 trillion yuan, and the discount balance was 16.2 trillion yuan [3] Group 6: Stock Market Performance - By the end of November 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,888.6 points, a decrease of 66.2 points or 1.7% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,984.1 points, down 394.1 points or 2.9% [3] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 808.5 billion yuan, down 16.0% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen market's average daily trading volume was 1,089.8 billion yuan, down 7.9% month-on-month [3] Group 7: Holder Structure in Interbank Bond Market - As of the end of November 2025, there were 3,987 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [4] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 53.4% of the total bonds, primarily concentrated among state-owned commercial banks, public funds, and insurance financial institutions [4] - The top 200 investors accounted for 84.6% of the holdings, indicating a high concentration of ownership [4]

Market Overview - On the last trading day of 2025, US stock index futures collectively declined, with technology stocks under pressure in pre-market trading [1] - The market experienced light trading due to holiday factors, with European stocks showing mixed results [2] - Major global exchanges shortened trading hours, with Japan, South Korea, and Germany closed, and France and the UK closing early [1] Key Market Movements - The Dow futures fell by 0.15%, S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.26%, and Nasdaq futures decreased by nearly 0.4% [1][4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.11% [3] - The US dollar remained stable, while the euro and yen both fell by 0.1% against the dollar [3] Commodity and Cryptocurrency Performance - Spot silver plummeted over 5.4% to $72 per ounce, with a significant drop of nearly 7% at one point [3][4] - Spot gold decreased by 0.2% to $4,329 per ounce, while WTI crude oil rose by 0.3% to $58.1 per barrel [3] - Bitcoin increased by 0.3% to $88,476.81, and Ethereum rose by 0.2% to $2,971.16 [3] Analyst Insights - Market dynamics are influenced more by divergence than direction as the year-end approaches, which has somewhat suppressed risk appetite [1] - Investment portfolio adjustments may be occurring as fund managers seek to align their holdings with benchmark indices after a strong year [3]

2025年即将落下帷幕，你持有的资产获得了多少投资收益？ 全球股市普涨，中国资产表现亮眼贵金属迎史诗级行情 今年以来，全球股市呈现罕见的普涨格局。21财经·南财快讯记者梳理发现，从美洲到亚洲，从发达市场到新兴市场，主要股指 全数实现正收益。中国资产今年的表现甚是亮眼：截至12月30日，创业板指年内累计涨超51%，科创50指数涨幅达37.5%，在全 球主要股指涨幅排名中分别位列第二、第三。恒生指数、恒生科技指数也分别录得28.89%、24.85%的涨幅。高盛预测，到2027 年底中国股市仍有38%的上涨空间。 值得注意的是，这场由流动性宽松和增长预期驱动的资产价格上涨，并不仅限于权益市场，贵金属领域更是上演了史诗级的行 情。 今年12月，金价一度突破每盎司4500美元的历史新高，COMEX黄金期货年内涨超65%，黄金正经历自1979年以来表现最好的一 年。 中国科技类ETF获外资流入最多多家外资机构看好明年中国股市 2025年年初，DeepSeek R1推理大模型横空出世，中国科技惊艳世界，引发了全球市场对中国资产的广泛重估。 黄金的强势表现也带动了其他贵金属上涨。今年以来，铂金涨幅高达141.57%，钯金期货 ...

回望这一标志性时刻，人民币以6.9973的汇率强势重返"6时代"，生动展现了中国经济的韧性与活力。这是自2024年10月以来人民币汇率首次跌破7.0整数关 口，再次印证了其作为全球主要货币的发展潜力。2025年，已然成为美元霸权趋弱、人民币加速崛起的分水岭。美联储年内多轮降息政策如同"强心针"，直 接推动美元指数持续下行并跌破100关键关口；与之形成鲜明对比的是，中国央行保持政策稳健，仅对利率进行0.4个百分点的微调，"美松中稳"的利差格局 清晰形成，为人民币的强劲反弹筑牢了坚实基础。 此次人民币重返"6时代"，其深层意义远超汇率数字本身，更凸显了全球多极化货币格局的演进趋势。在美元长期主导的国际货币体系中，各国正加速摆脱 对美元的过度依赖，人民币结算在跨境交易中的占比持续攀升。 2025年12月25日，这个看似平常却意义非凡的圣诞节，离岸人民币对美元汇率悄然突破7.0大关。一时间，这一关键数字冲上全球各大金融头条，成为市场 聚焦的核心。这绝非单纯的汇率浮动，更是一场关乎货币霸权重构与经济重心转移的深刻变革，标志着全球金融秩序正迎来历史性调整。 外国投资者净买入美国证券资产的规模暴跌94.4%。美元的颓势背后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has broken the 7.0 mark against the USD, reaching a high of 6.9973, marking a significant moment in global finance and indicating a shift in the global currency landscape [2] Group 1: RMB Strength and Economic Context - The RMB's rise to the "6 era" reflects a robust recovery of the Chinese economy after challenges, showcasing its resilience [2] - In 2025, the USD index experienced a nearly 8% decline, the largest annual drop in nine years, driven by structural economic issues in the U.S. [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts in 2025 diminished the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets [3] Group 2: Global Currency Dynamics - Global central banks are reducing their USD reserves due to concerns over the U.S. debt expansion, leading to a diversification of currency reserves [4] - The perception of the USD as a safe haven is weakening, prompting capital to seek new opportunities, with China emerging as a preferred destination [4] Group 3: Trade Surplus and Economic Foundations - China's trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, a historic achievement indicating strong net earnings from global markets [6] - The composition of the trade surplus has shifted from low-value goods to high-value products like automobiles and advanced machinery, enhancing the credibility of the RMB [8] Group 4: Policy and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China has maintained a stable RMB without resorting to competitive devaluation, demonstrating strategic policy strength [9] - The relative stability of the China-U.S. interest rate differential has kept RMB assets attractive, evidenced by significant foreign capital inflows into Chinese government bonds [9] Group 5: Long-term Outlook for RMB - The RMB's return to the "6 era" suggests a likely long-term appreciation trend, supported by ongoing productivity improvements in China [11] - The current low allocation of global capital to Chinese assets compared to its economic size indicates potential for future inflows [11] Group 6: Opportunities and Challenges - RMB appreciation presents opportunities to lower import costs and combat inflation, while also posing short-term challenges for export-oriented businesses [13] - The recent RMB strength may signify a pivotal moment for the currency's transition from a regional to a global reserve currency [13]

深度解析：美元霸权正在崩解！百国同步行动去美元，中国搭建人民币朋友圈 如果只看汇率曲线，今年的美元像是一次"剧烈调整"； 但如果把时间轴拉长，把视角抬高，你会发现——这是美元霸权结构性松动的一年。 不是情绪，不是阴谋论，而是一整套支撑美元的底层逻辑，正在同时出现裂缝。 一、美元真正的"护城河"，正在被自己掏空 很多人以为，美元的强大来自经济规模、军事力量，甚至"世界信任"。 但真正让美元成为全球核心货币的，从来只有三点： 第一，美国债务是"安全资产"； 第二，美联储是"可信央行"； 第三，美元体系是"不可替代的结算网络"。 而2025年，三点同时动摇。 美债不再是"避险资产"，而是"高风险资产" 今年一个极具象征意义的变化是： 当全球不确定性上升时，美债反而被抛售。 收益率长期高位，却换不来资金追捧，本质只有一个解释—— 市场开始怀疑： 这笔债，还能不能靠"制度信用"安全兑付？ 美联储的"独立性神话"，正在坍塌 美元长期强势的另一个核心，是全球相信： 美联储不会被政治绑架。 但现实是，美国政府越来越直接地把货币政策当成政策工具： 当市场开始怀疑美联储的决策不再只基于通胀和就业，而是服务于政治目标，美元就从"制 ...

Group 1 - The core argument discusses the potential shift in the global currency landscape, questioning whether the era of US dollar dominance is coming to an end and if the renminbi is set to rise [1] - The global currency market is experiencing a tension between the desire for change and the difficulty of achieving it, as emerging economies seek to challenge the dollar's dominance [3][5] - The transition in the global currency system is gradual, with the dollar having established itself as the primary currency due to the US's economic strength and the depth of its financial markets [7][9] Group 2 - The renminbi's internationalization is progressing steadily, with more countries looking to diversify their currency reserves, although the dollar still holds significant power in international settlements and reserves [11][25] - The dollar's strength is supported by robust economic indicators in the US, with expectations of a controlled reduction in interest rates rather than a drastic decline [13][16] - The dollar's status as a safe haven remains unchallenged, as geopolitical risks and economic recovery vary globally, making it a preferred choice for investors [18][20] Group 3 - The renminbi faces challenges, including a lack of strong internal support due to sluggish economic recovery in China, with indicators like CPI and PPI showing weakness [22] - The future of the global currency landscape is likely to evolve slowly, with the dollar remaining dominant while other currencies, including the renminbi, play supplementary roles [25][34] - Long-term prospects for the renminbi depend on China's economic transformation and the opening of its financial system, which includes achieving capital flow freedom and market-oriented reforms [25][27]